Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a warm winter and impacts from the real estate sector, but the dividend logic is gradually being realized [5] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 102.68 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of HKD 4.09 billion, a decrease of 21.7% compared to the previous year, which was below market expectations [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of HKD 0.95 per share for 2024, with the cash dividend amounting to 52.71% of the net profit [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 101.27 billion - 2024: HKD 102.68 billion - 2025E: HKD 105.54 billion - 2026E: HKD 108.01 billion - 2027E: HKD 110.57 billion - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: HKD 5.22 billion - 2024: HKD 4.09 billion - 2025E: HKD 4.72 billion - 2026E: HKD 5.51 billion - 2027E: HKD 6.19 billion - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be HKD 2.04, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 [6][8] Operational Insights - Retail gas sales volume for 2024 is expected to reach 39.91 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with residential, industrial, and commercial sales volumes growing by 6.3%, 1.5%, and 3.8% respectively [7] - The company’s connection profit continues to shrink, with a reduction in new residential connections by 620,000 to 2.693 million, leading to a decline in connection business profits [7] - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at HKD 4.42 billion, a decrease of HKD 3.47 billion year-on-year, contributing to an improvement in free cash flow [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in performance as the real estate market stabilizes, with a focus on optimizing its gas sales business and improving profitability [7] - The long-term downward trend in gas prices is anticipated to enhance cost efficiency, with the company signing a 15-year LNG supply agreement starting in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 20.80, indicating a potential downside of 26.2% from the current price of HKD 28.20 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company's operational and profit growth for 2024 is under pressure, necessitating a rebalancing of its future profit structure [2]. - The core profit for 2024 is expected to be significantly below market expectations, with a forecast of HKD 4.15 billion, which is 30% lower than previous estimates [7]. - The company has seen a 20% year-on-year decrease in residential connections, which is a major factor contributing to the disappointing earnings [7]. - Despite a 67% increase in interim dividends, the final dividend is expected to drop by 30% due to weaker performance in the second half of the year [7]. - The company is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 6% in profits from 2024 to 2027 [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 101.27 billion in 2023 to HKD 111.29 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 3.2% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decline from HKD 5.22 billion in 2023 to HKD 4.99 billion in 2027, reflecting a downward trend in profitability [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase gradually from HKD 1.79 in 2023 to HKD 2.16 in 2027, with a notable adjustment of -32.5% for 2025 [3][18]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.7 in 2023 to 13.1 by 2027, indicating a declining valuation trend [3][18]. Operational Data - The residential gas sales volume is expected to grow from 9.44 million cubic meters in 2023 to 12.01 million cubic meters by 2027, with a growth rate of 3.3% [10]. - The company anticipates a decrease in new residential connections, projecting 2.30 million in 2025, down 14% from the previous year [10]. - The retail gas margin is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.54 per cubic meter by 2025 [10].

业绩大幅下滑，华润燃气股价遭遇大跌。 今日，华润燃气跳空低开，最新跌17.55%，报23.25港元/股，总市值538.01亿港元。 近年来，华润燃气股价持续走低，自2021年6月的高点至今，公司股价在3年多的时间内累计跌超50%。 华润燃气表示，该业务的渗透率仍处于低位，未来有望成为公司的重要业务组成部分。 综合能源业务上，截至2024年底，华润燃气的分布式能源、分布式光伏、交通充能累计签约3.2GW、286MW，478MW，累计投运2.6GW、94.7MW、 415MW。 2024年的能源销售量同比高增27.2%至37.4亿千瓦时，实现综合能源毛利3.6亿港元，同比增长33.6%。 业绩低于预期 财报显示，华润燃气2024年实现营收1026.76亿港元，同比增长1.4%；核心利润为41.48亿港元，同比增长0.02%；股东应占溢利为40.88亿港元，同比下降 21.7%；基本每股收益为1.8港元。 华润燃气去年的毛利率为17.8%，较前一年同期下降0.4个百分点，主要是由于毛利率相对较高的接驳收入占比由10.8%下降至9%。 券商普遍认为，华润燃气的这份业绩低于预期。 | | | | 增加 / | | -- ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 102,676 million, an increase of 1.4% from HKD 101,272 million in 2023[3] - Core profit for the same period was HKD 4,148 million, showing a marginal increase of 0.02% compared to HKD 4,147 million in 2023[3] - Profit attributable to the company's owners decreased by 21.7% to HKD 4,088 million from HKD 5,224 million in 2023[3] - Total comprehensive income for the year was HKD 4,410 million, a decrease from HKD 5,428 million in 2023[5] - Basic earnings per share for the year were HKD 1.80, down from HKD 2.30 in 2023[5] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 102,675,888,000, with a pre-tax profit of HKD 7,746,214,000[17] - The company achieved a total classified profit of HKD 13,079,019 for the year, with significant contributions from various service segments[20] - The company’s interest income from loans to subsidiaries increased significantly to HKD 53,772 in 2024 from HKD 12,024 in 2023, indicating improved financial management[25] - The company’s employee costs totaled HKD 6,642,541 for the year, showing an increase from HKD 6,338,861 in the previous year, reflecting growth in workforce and compensation[26] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Total gas sales volume increased by 2.9% to 39,907 million cubic meters from 38,784 million cubic meters in 2023[3] - The revenue breakdown includes sales of gas fuel and related products at HKD 85,565,630,000, gas connection services at HKD 9,250,793,000, and integrated services at HKD 4,205,793,000[17] - Total natural gas sales increased by 2.9% to 39.91 billion cubic meters, with industrial sales at 20.42 billion cubic meters (up 1.5%) and residential sales at 10.04 billion cubic meters (up 6.3%) [37] - The company developed 53,000 new industrial users and 2.693 million new residential users, with the average gasification rate increasing from 59.3% to 60.4% [38] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets increased to HKD 103,014 million from HKD 102,417 million in 2023[6] - Current liabilities rose to HKD 53,837 million from HKD 51,109 million in 2023[6] - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to HKD 132,482,695,000, with classified assets of HKD 92,618,333,000[18] - Total liabilities were reported at HKD 68,511,719,000, with classified liabilities of HKD 31,456,819,000[18] - Trade receivables decreased to HKD 9.82 billion from HKD 11.44 billion, with receivables aged 0 to 90 days at HKD 6.15 billion [32] - Trade payables decreased to HKD 11.98 billion from HKD 14.44 billion, with payables aged 0 to 90 days at HKD 9.16 billion [33] Dividends and Shareholder Information - The proposed final dividend for the year is HKD 0.70 per share, down from HKD 1.0069 per share in the previous year, totaling HKD 1.58777 billion [29] - The proposed final dividend for 2024 will be paid in Hong Kong dollars, with an option for shareholders to receive it in Renminbi at a rate of HKD 1.0 to RMB 0.92319[51] - The final dividend per share in Renminbi will be RMB 0.6462358 for those opting for this currency[51] - The proposed final dividend for the year ending December 31, 2024, is HKD 0.70 per share, totaling HKD 0.95 per share for the year, down from HKD 1.1569 per share in 2023[48] Strategic Initiatives and Market Expansion - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency in response to the green energy transition [35] - The company is focusing on strategic partnerships and market expansion to leverage opportunities in urban redevelopment and industrial customer development [38] - In 2024, the company signed 7 new projects and registered 4 projects, expanding its franchise area by 2,678 square kilometers, with a potential gas sales volume of 610 million cubic meters and 98,000 new residential users[39] - The company is actively expanding into Hong Kong and overseas markets, establishing investment platforms and joint ventures to promote business growth[42] Governance and Compliance - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rules and has complied with most applicable provisions[53] - The company deviated from the governance code regarding the formal appointment letters for directors and the separation of roles between the chairman and CEO[54] - All directors have complied with the standard code of conduct for securities trading during the reporting period[55] - No significant events occurred after the reporting date that could impact the company's operations or performance[56] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Focus - The company emphasizes ESG management, maintaining an MSCI ESG rating of A, and is committed to sustainable development and compliance with environmental standards[44] - The company aims to enhance its comprehensive energy solutions and capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy in the Chinese market[46] Miscellaneous - The chairman expressed gratitude to business partners, customers, and shareholders for their support and acknowledged the hard work of all employees[58] - The annual report will be sent to shareholders and published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and the company's website[57] - The company will suspend share transfer registration from May 23, 2025, to May 28, 2025, for the annual general meeting[50]

加税40天已过，中方转守为攻，美国想要的15年大单，中方给了澳 自中方对美加征关税至今，已经过去了40天，中方所说的"奉陪到底"，特朗普终究是没能领会，中方这次转守为攻，将美国的大单，转头交给了澳大利亚。 今年2月10日，为反制美国对中国输美产品加征10%关税，中国对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税，其中，对液化天然气（LNG）加征的关税达到了 15%。到今天，40天过去了，美媒突然发现中方的反制措施不止加征关税而已，这回中方似乎要反过来先和美国"脱钩"了。 当地时间3月18日，彭博社发布报道称，从船舶跟踪数据来看，中国已经40天没有从美国进口LNG了，并且中国买家已经找到了新供应商，这似乎预示着， 中国之后也没有恢复美国LNG进口的打算。 美国的能源供应商和肉品加工厂之所以过得这么艰难，都要归咎于美国政府对所谓"公平贸易"的狂热追求。特朗普上任短短五十几天，美国已经借由各种名 目对中国加征了至少三轮关税，中国外交部、商务部几次强调，"美方如果别有所图，执意损害中国的利益，中方必将奉陪到底"，表明已经做好了应战的准 备。这四十天的时间也已经给到了美方，但美方还是没能做出正确的决定，中方也只能为自保主动出击。 ...

Fixed Income - The forecast for February 2025 predicts new loans of 1 trillion yuan and social financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, with M2 reaching 320.6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2][10] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.3%, with a potential recovery in the growth rate later in the year [11][12] - The report anticipates a stable economic outlook for 2025, with a possible small rebound in 2026, and predicts the 10Y/30Y government bond yields to peak at 1.9%/2.2% in 2025 [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) - Kelun Pharmaceutical is recognized as a successful representative of the transition from generic to innovative drugs, with a cumulative R&D investment of nearly 11.9 billion yuan from 2014 to 2023 [14][15] - The company has entered the global market for innovative drugs, with significant potential for future growth, particularly through its ADC research platform and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies [16] - The antibiotic intermediate sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, while the intravenous infusion market is projected to grow steadily due to aging demographics [17][18] Public Utilities - China Resources Gas (01193.HK) - China Resources Gas is positioned as a leading city gas provider, focusing on projects in first- and second-tier cities, benefiting from its strategic location [21][22] - The company has reduced its reliance on connection services, with growth in comprehensive services and energy solutions supporting its profitability [23] - The report highlights a significant increase in operating cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating strong financial health and potential for dividend growth [24][25] New Energy - Mingyang Technology (837663.BJ) - Mingyang Technology is identified as a national-level specialized manufacturer in automotive seat components, with an expected net profit growth of 18.66% in 2024 [27][28] - The company is benefiting from the trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected increase in the value of seat components [29] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the assembly business, which is expected to become a significant revenue driver [30][31] New Consumption - Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) - Semir Apparel focuses on casual and children's clothing, with its brands ranking among the top in their respective markets [34][35] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and product appeal through strategic partnerships and brand collaborations, leading to improved profit margins [35] - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by a strong market position and multi-brand strategy [36] New Consumption - Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market, with a market share exceeding 73% in 2023 [38][39] - The growth of the RTD market is driven by expanding consumer demographics and innovative product offerings [40] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership and continue to grow its net profit from 2024 to 2026 [41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a focus on its core gas assets and a solid dividend logic [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a national leader in city gas, backed by China Resources Group, with a significant presence in first- and second-tier cities, enhancing its core asset attributes [9][17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins due to lower gas prices and improved sales pricing mechanisms, which are expected to support revenue growth [12][42]. - The company’s cash flow has significantly improved, with a notable increase in operating cash flow and a reduction in capital expenditures, indicating a strong potential for dividend growth [22][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of March 5, 2025, was HKD 26.10, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,395.74 million [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is HKD 55.63 billion, HKD 61.72 billion, and HKD 67.65 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [6][10]. - The expected dividend yields for 2024-2026 are 4.6%, 5.1%, and 5.6% based on the current stock price [6][10]. Business Overview - The company operates 276 city gas projects, with a retail gas volume increasing from 1.371 billion cubic meters in 2008 to 38.784 billion cubic meters in 2023, maintaining a market share of 9.83% in 2023 [17][18]. - The revenue structure has shifted, with gas sales becoming the primary profit driver, accounting for 56.15% of tax-preferred profits in 2023 [18][20]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The operating cash flow reached HKD 10.16 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 133.4%, with a free cash flow of HKD 1.9 billion in the first half of 2024 [22][24]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 29.8% in 2016 to 50.3% in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.15% in dividends per share since 2008 [25][60]. Strategic Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in economically developed regions, benefiting from high population density and industrial clustering, which supports gas sales growth [38][40]. - The report highlights the potential for further market consolidation and growth in the city gas sector, driven by government policies promoting mergers and acquisitions [40][46]. Risk Management - The company has managed to reduce its reliance on connection profits, with a significant increase in comprehensive service and energy business profits, which helps mitigate risks associated with declining connection revenues [12][53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 26.75 and a target value of HKD 34.20 [4][248]. Core Insights - The company is a leading urban gas provider in China, with a strong focus on city gas operations and a significant market share, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in gas sales from 2008 to 2023 [9][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of LNG prices and the implementation of pricing policies that will enhance profitability [9][248]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial health, with a return on equity (ROE) consistently above 10% and a dividend payout ratio increasing to 50.3% in 2023, indicating strong shareholder returns [9][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is backed by China Resources Group and has been deeply involved in the urban gas sector for over 20 years, ranking among the top three in gas sales nationwide [21][23]. - As of 2024H1, the company operates 276 urban gas projects across 25 provinces, with a coverage of 97.08 million users [31][39]. 2. Pricing and Profitability - The company has seen a recovery in profitability due to the stabilization of gas prices and the implementation of a pricing mechanism that aligns sales prices with procurement costs [9][160]. - The average selling price of gas in 2023 was HKD 3.50 per cubic meter, with a gross margin of HKD 0.51 per cubic meter, showing improvement from previous years [160][248]. 3. Business Segments - Gas sales accounted for 82% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant contribution from the connection business, which, despite its smaller share, has a high profit margin [55][241]. - The comprehensive service segment has been growing rapidly, with revenues reaching HKD 40.45 billion in 2023, driven by kitchen and heating services [202][204]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 50 billion, HKD 57 billion, and HKD 63 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 2.17, HKD 2.44, and HKD 2.73 [9][243]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in gross margins, with expected improvements in the gas sales segment due to favorable pricing policies [239][240]. 5. Market Dynamics - The urban gas market in China is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing urbanization and the demand for cleaner energy sources [97][106]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strategic focus on expanding its service offerings and enhancing customer engagement through innovative service models [207][212].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 12x for 2025 and a dividend yield of 4.5% [106] Core Views - The company's profitability has gradually recovered in recent years, with the main gas sales business accounting for 71% of profits in the first half of 2024 [7] - The global natural gas market is rebalancing after the supply shocks of 2022-2023, but geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather continue to cause price volatility [9] - China's natural gas import dependency has increased to 42% in 2023, with LNG accounting for 61% of imports, making international gas prices more influential on domestic pricing [12] - The company is gradually building its own natural gas resource pool, which is expected to optimize its gas source structure and reduce procurement costs [36] - The company's dividend payout ratio has steadily increased from 18% in 2011 to 50% in 2023, with further room for growth as capital expenditures shrink and operating cash flow improves [45] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is expected to grow from HKD 101.3 billion in 2023 to HKD 112.8 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 3.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 5.2 billion in 2023 to HKD 6.4 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% [1] - Gross margin is forecast to rise from 18.2% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2026, while ROE remains stable around 11% [1] - EPS is expected to grow from HKD 2.30 in 2023 to HKD 2.81 in 2026, with a forward PE ratio declining from 13.4x to 11.0x [1] Industry Analysis - Natural gas accounted for 8.5% of China's primary energy consumption in 2023, significantly lower than the global average of 23%, indicating substantial growth potential [22] - China's natural gas consumption is expected to reach 600 billion cubic meters by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.2% from 2023 [52] - The global LNG trade volume is projected to increase from 400 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 500 billion cubic meters by 2025 [8] - China's natural gas consumption structure is shifting, with industrial and residential consumption accounting for 40% and 30% respectively in 2023 [23] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation charging businesses, with comprehensive energy service revenue reaching HKD 1.64 billion in 2023, up 73% YoY [78] - The company is actively participating in urban village renovation projects and "pingji liangyong" infrastructure construction, which could boost its penetration rate in existing projects [28] - The company is optimizing its gas source structure through its own LNG receiving station, which is expected to reduce procurement costs and improve flexibility [36] - The company is expanding its integrated services business, with revenue from this segment growing 125% YoY to HKD 2.7 billion in 2023 [69]

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with stable cash flow matching capital expenditures and steadily increasing dividends [1] - The gas sales business benefits from high-quality projects and improved profitability due to market-oriented reforms [1] - The company is rapidly expanding its comprehensive service and comprehensive energy businesses, creating new growth points [1] - The company's city gas projects are of high quality, with price adjustments driving profit recovery, and the dual-comprehensive business growing faster than the industry [1] Business Overview City Gas Operations - The company is the largest city gas operator in China, with 276 city gas projects across 25 provinces as of 2024H1 [1] - Retail gas sales reached 387.80 billion cubic meters in 2023, accounting for 10% of national consumption [1] - The company's retail gas volume grew at a CAGR of 9.8% from 2018 to 2023, with a 5.3% YoY increase in 2024H1 [1] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved to 0.54 yuan/cubic meter in 2024H1, up 0.04 yuan/cubic meter YoY [1] Comprehensive Services - The company has 55.808 million urban residential users as of 2023, with 72.9% located in tier 1-3 cities [1] - Comprehensive service segment profit grew 18.99% YoY to 1.37 billion HKD in 2023, and further increased 22.12% YoY to 760 million HKD in 2024H1 [1] - The company's market share in kitchen appliances and insurance businesses reached 8.6% and 23.0% respectively in 2023 [1] Comprehensive Energy Business - The company focuses on distributed photovoltaic, distributed energy, and transportation energy sectors [1] - Energy sales volume increased 84.9% YoY to 2.94 billion kWh in 2023, with a gross profit of 270 million HKD, up 125% YoY [1] - In 2024H1, energy sales volume grew 54.6% YoY to 1.49 billion kWh, with a gross profit of 160 million HKD, up 84.3% YoY [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue is expected to reach 98.882 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY decrease of 2.83% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.722 billion HKD in 2024, with a YoY increase of 9.5% [1] - EPS is expected to be 2.47 HKD in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 11.5x [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2026, faster than its peers [87] - The company's P/E ratio is 12.6x for 2023, 11.5x for 2024, 10.5x for 2025, and 9.7x for 2026, lower than the industry average [87]