Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 57.3 [1][21]. Core Insights - The new business value reached a quarterly high of USD 1.33 billion in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% (fixed exchange rate) and 26.9% (actual exchange rate) [3][17]. - The annualized new premium was USD 2.45 billion, up 22.6% year-on-year, while total weighted premium income was USD 11.22 billion, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-on-year [3][17]. - The company has optimized its capital management policy, targeting a payout ratio of 75% of the annual free surplus net income, with an additional USD 2 billion added to the share buyback plan, bringing the total to USD 12 billion [6][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The report shows relative performance of 1.8% over 1 month, -22.0% over 3 months, and -20.4% over 1 year, with absolute performance of 9.0%, -11.6%, and -31.1% respectively [1]. Market Data - The total share capital is 1.1238 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of HKD 643.936 billion. The stock price has ranged from HKD 45.25 to HKD 86.8 over the past year [4]. New Business Value - The new business value in the Hong Kong market grew by 43% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by strong local and MCV business performance [3][5]. - The company achieved double-digit growth in new business value across all reported segments, indicating robust recovery momentum post-pandemic [5]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to generate net profits of USD 4.839 billion, USD 5.571 billion, and USD 6.277 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.6%, 15.1%, and 12.7% [10][22]. - The projected PEV for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.19, 1.12, and 1.04 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [22]. Capital Management - The company plans to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a total expected return of USD 2.9 billion based on the 2023 free surplus net income [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% [3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong recovery in its performance, with a notable increase in New Business Value (NBV) and a new $2 billion share buyback plan that exceeded expectations [2]. - The company aims to return 75% of its annual free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a consistent dividend policy with annual growth [2]. - The NBV for Q1 2024 reached $13.27 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 31%, while the Annualized New Premium (ANP) was $24.49 billion, up 26% year-over-year [2]. - The NBV Margin (NBVM) increased by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2%, marking the first year-over-year growth since 2022, alleviating concerns about product structure changes [2]. - The company’s diverse distribution channels showed robust growth, with NBV from agents and partners increasing by 20% and 70% year-over-year, respectively [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved an insurance revenue of $17.514 billion in 2023, with projected growth to $18.969 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year increase [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from $3.764 billion in 2023 to $6.144 billion in 2024, representing a 63.2% increase [9]. - The Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from $0.27 in 2023 to $0.43 in 2024 [9]. - The company’s investment performance is expected to improve, with net investment income projected to rise from $12.566 billion in 2023 to $14.769 billion in 2024 [9].

Summary of AIA Group Q1 2024 Update Company Overview - The conference call is hosted by AIA Group, a leading insurance and financial services company based in Hong Kong [1] Key Points Discussed - The session is led by Lance Burbage, Chief Investor Relations Officer, along with Group CEO Li Yuanxiang and Group CFO Garth Jones [1] Additional Important Information - Other members of the Group Executive Committee are present either in person or remotely, indicating a collaborative approach to the Q&A session [1]

Summary of AIA Group Q1 2024 Update Company Overview - The conference call is hosted by AIA Group, a leading insurance and financial services company based in Hong Kong [1] Key Points Discussed - The session is led by Lance Burbage, Chief Investor Relations Officer, along with Group CEO Li Yuanxiang and Group CFO Garth Jones [1] Additional Important Information - Other members of the Group Executive Committee are present either in person or remotely, indicating a collaborative approach to the Q&A session [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of 54.00 HKD and a target value of 76.6 HKD per share [16]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong growth in new business value (NBV) for the first quarter, reaching 1.33 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The annualized new premium was 2.45 billion USD, up 23% year-on-year. This growth was driven by both volume and price increases, alongside strong growth in partner distribution channels [14]. - All operational segments of the company achieved double-digit growth in NBV, benefiting from increased activity in individual insurance channels and strong savings demand in bank insurance channels. The NBV margin (NBVM) improved by 1.9 percentage points to 52.4% [14]. - The company optimized its capital management policy, increasing its share buyback program to 2 billion USD, reflecting confidence in its financial position [14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 0.62, 0.68, and 0.84 USD, respectively, with an estimated enterprise value (EV) multiple of 1.6x for 2024 [14]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 5,466 million USD, with a projected decline to 5,091 million USD in 2023, followed by a recovery to 5,343 million USD in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow significantly from 3,331 million USD in 2022 to 8,856 million USD in 2024 [15]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's return on equity (ROE), projected to rise from 0.63% in 2022 to 17.64% by 2026 [15].

Financial Performance - AIA Group reported total assets of $286 billion as of December 31, 2023[15]. - The company achieved insurance payouts and claims of $21 billion in 2023, an increase of $2 billion compared to 2022[16]. - AIA reported a total weighted premium income of US$340 million in 2023, reflecting a growth compared to US$262 million in 2022[53]. - The annualized new premiums reached US$71.2 billion in 2023, showing a slight decrease from US$71.2 billion in 2022[36]. - New business value increased by 33% to $4.034 billion, with double-digit growth in 10 markets and all distribution channels[62]. - The operating profit attributable to underlying value per share rose by 37%, driven by the growth in new business value, resulting in an operating return on embedded value increase of 350 basis points to 12.9%[111]. - The embedded value operating profit increased by 33% to $8.890 billion, reflecting significant growth in new business value and higher expected returns due to rising interest rates[157]. - The basic free surplus generated was $6.041 billion, with a per share increase of 5%, driven by higher interest rates, partially offset by medical claims experience[160]. - The contract service margin rose to $53.115 billion, with a basic contract service margin growth rate of 8.4%, driven by the continued achievement of large-scale and high-quality new business[158]. - AIA recorded a strong financial performance in 2023, with new business value increasing by 33% to $4.034 billion, supported by double-digit growth in 10 markets[154]. - The local capital adequacy ratio reported at 275% as of December 31, 2023, indicating strong financial health[184]. Shareholder Returns - AIA has returned US$7.2 billion to shareholders through an ongoing share buyback program, part of a total plan of up to US$10 billion[42]. - The group returned USD 5.9 billion to shareholders through increased dividends and ongoing share buyback programs, with free surplus before capital return increasing by 25%[103]. - The board proposed a final dividend of HK$1.1907 per share, a 5% increase, resulting in a total dividend of HK$1.6136 per share for 2023[64]. - The total dividend for 2023 reached HKD 1.6136 per share, a 5% increase from 2022[140]. - The share buyback program repurchased approximately 740 million shares for a total value of $7.207 billion, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 6% since the program's launch in March 2022[161]. - The company plans to return excess capital of $3.637 billion to shareholders through a share buyback program, in addition to a dividend of $2.293 billion[138]. Market Expansion and Operations - AIA Group's business covers 18 markets, with a focus on Asia, and serves over 42 million individual policyholders and more than 18 million group insurance plan participants[16]. - The company opened a new branch in Henan, upgraded its Shijiazhuang center to a branch, and is preparing to expand into Hubei and Sichuan provinces[19]. - AIA's joint venture Tata AIA Life is the third-largest private life insurance company in India and the leading retail protection provider[20]. - The company operates in 12 markets and has expanded its community initiatives across 18 markets in 2023[29][49]. - New business value in mainland China grew by 28% from February to December 2023, with total new business value for the year increasing by 20% to USD 1.037 billion[107]. - AIA's new business value in Singapore increased by 10% to USD 0.394 billion, supported by strong performance from agency and partner distribution channels[109]. - The investment in China Post Life Insurance, representing a 24.99% stake, provided additional growth opportunities and a complementary customer base[108]. - The company is expanding its operations into new major cities in Hubei and Sichuan provinces in China[133]. Technology and Digital Transformation - The company has been recognized as the "Digital Insurer of the Year" for three consecutive years by InsuranceAsia News[5]. - AIA's cloud technology adoption rate reached 90%, significantly higher than the global financial services and insurance industry average[44]. - AIA's digital transformation led to over 20 million existing and potential registered customers using its app, with over 85% of customer transactions completed digitally[115]. - The end-to-end processing ratio improved from 35% in June 2020 to 85% by December 2023[142]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - AIA Group has become the first life and health insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region to have its short-term reduction targets verified by the Science Based Targets initiative[24]. - The company launched a climate transition plan aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, integrating climate factors into its core business[46]. - The company received recognition for its leadership in ESG, being awarded top industry and regional badges for three consecutive years[68]. - AIA's commitment to sustainability was highlighted by becoming the first life and health insurance group in the Asia-Pacific region to have its near-term reduction targets verified by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi)[170]. Employee Engagement and Corporate Culture - AIA has been recognized with the "Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award" for the second consecutive year, highlighting high employee engagement[44]. - The company remains confident in growth opportunities, focusing on achieving substantial profitability in new business growth while maintaining financial discipline[185]. Product and Service Development - The company launched the "AIA Junyu Wealth Management Center" and "AIA Junyu Health Garden" in Hong Kong, offering integrated health and wealth management services[19]. - AIA's comprehensive ecosystem combines various new products and services to meet a broader range of financial and health protection needs for customers[116]. - Approximately 60% of new customers opted to include "AIA Vitality" in their policies when given the choice[49]. - AIA's distribution platform, supported by the "Best Agents" strategy, accounted for 76% of the total new business value, growing by 23%[167]. Market Performance - New business value in Hong Kong increased by 82% to $1.43 billion, contributing significantly to the group's new business performance[132]. - The new business value in China grew by 55%, with the company now operating 10 branches in the mainland[133]. - In Thailand, new business value rose by 21% to $713 million, with the company holding a 41% market share[134]. - The overall new business value in other markets remained flat at $406 million, but excluding Vietnam, it increased by 15%[137]. - New business value from partner distribution channels surged by 58%, with bank insurance channels achieving a 42% increase[143].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investors [3][16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in new business value, with a 33% year-on-year increase to $4.034 billion as of December 31, 2023. Notably, the new business value in mainland China grew by 20%, while Hong Kong saw an impressive 82% increase [3][16]. - The annualized new premium increased by 45% to $7.650 billion in 2023, driven by a shift towards long-term savings products and increased contributions from bank insurance in mainland China [3][16]. - The company's new business value margin decreased to 52.6% for the year but improved to 54.5% in the second half of 2023, reflecting operational enhancements [3][16]. Financial Metrics - Total assets for 2023 are reported at $286.32 billion, with total liabilities at $244.7 billion, resulting in a net asset value of $44.75 billion [1][10]. - The company’s operating profit after tax for 2023 was $6.213 billion, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.0% [17][31]. - The intrinsic value increased by 7% to $76.083 billion, and the new business value is projected to grow to $4.87 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.8% [15][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a revised target price of HK$96.50, implying a 1.8x FY24E P/EV [18][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a full-year Value of New Business (VNB) growth of 33% year-on-year to US$4,034 million, with Annualized New Premium (ANP) increasing by 45% to US$7,650 million, aligning with forecasts [18]. - The VNB margin narrowed to 52.6%, but improved sequentially by 3.8 percentage points to 54.5% in the second half of 2023 [18]. - The company is expected to sustain mid-double digit VNB growth in the first quarter of 2024, driven by strong momentum in the MCV segment [18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of US$3,781 million in FY23, with an EPS of US$0.33 [19]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.8% in FY23 to 15.0% in FY24E [19]. - The operating return on embedded value is expected to rise from 13.0% in FY23 to 14.2% in FY24E [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/Embedded Value of 1.3x for FY23, projected to decrease to 1.2x in FY24E [19]. - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.1% in FY23 to 2.9% in FY24E [19]. - The average risk discount rate for the group has been revised down from 10% to 9.5% [20]. Embedded Value and Growth Projections - The embedded value for FY23 is reported at US$67,447 million, with projections of US$71,790 million for FY24E [24]. - The long-term growth rate is set at 3.0%, with VNB growth expected to be 11.5% in FY24E [24]. - The company’s new business multiplier is projected to be 22.8x for FY24E [24]. Market and Economic Assumptions - The report highlights a trend of negative investment variances impacting profitability, alongside higher medical claims [18]. - The average long-term investment return is estimated at 8.6%, reflecting a prolonged low-interest-rate environment [20].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|----------------|------------------------|-----------------|--------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------------| | 表 1 绝对估值法得到公司 | 2024E | 2024 \n2025E | 年每股评估价值 \n2026E | 91.38 \n2027E | 港元（百万美元） \n2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | 2033E | 未来年份 NBV | | 折现因子 | 92% | 84% | 77% | 70% | 64% | 59% | 54% | 49% | 45% | 41% | 41% | | NBV （折现 后） | 4149 | 4145 | 41 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to AIA Group, with a target price of HK$91.38 [4][16][129]. Core Insights - AIA Group's New Business Value (NBV) reached $4.03 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates, with Q4 2023 NBV at $1.01 billion, up 24% year-over-year [15][36][129]. - The NBV margin was reported at 52.6%, down 4.5 percentage points year-over-year, but showed recovery in the second half of 2023 to 54.5% [36][58][129]. - Annualized New Premiums (ANP) hit a record high of $7.65 billion, up 45% year-over-year, with H2 2023 contributing $3.67 billion, a 39.4% increase [36][129]. - The net profit for the year was $3.76 billion, representing a 15% increase year-over-year [36][129]. - The embedded value was $67.4 billion, down 2% year-over-year, while the operating profit from embedded value increased by 33% year-over-year [36][129]. Summary by Sections Channels and Manpower - The agency channel's NBV increased by 23% year-over-year, accounting for 75.7% of total NBV, while the NBV margin decreased by 8.0 percentage points to 65.4% [100][129]. - The partner channel outperformed with a 58% year-over-year increase in NBV, and the bancassurance channel saw a 42% increase [100][129]. Regional Performance - Hong Kong regained its position as the largest contributor to NBV, with an 82% year-over-year increase to $1.43 billion, half of which was contributed by mainland visitors [15][130]. - Mainland China's NBV grew by 20% year-over-year, with a notable 28% growth from February to December [15][130]. - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region continued to show positive growth, with increases of 10%, 7%, and 21% year-over-year [15][130]. - Other regions maintained stable NBV, with a 15% year-over-year increase when excluding Vietnam [15][130]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in the overall NBV margin to 52.6%, with a recovery in the second half of 2023 [58][129]. - The average credit rating of the fixed income investment portfolio improved from A- in 2022 to A in 2023 [37][129]. - The report projects continued growth in 2024, supported by the development of new branches in Mainland China and strong growth in the ASEAN region [16][129].