Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Strong demand for dividend savings products in Hong Kong, with both new premium and value rate increasing in mainland business [2] - AIA Insurance's 2024H1 NBV increased by 21% YoY to USD 2.46 billion, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 25% [27] - Annualized new premium for 2024H1 was USD 4.55 billion, up 14% YoY, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 17% [27] - Post-tax operating profit for 2024H1 was USD 3.39 billion, up 3% YoY, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 7% [27] - AIA announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.45 per share, totaling HKD 4.9 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 19% [27] Regional Performance - Mainland China: 2024H1 NBV reached USD 780 million, up 36% YoY, with new annualized premium up 21% and margin increasing by 6.4 percentage points to 56.6% [18] - Hong Kong: Dividend savings flagship products contributed USD 860 million in NBV, up 26% YoY, with local and mainland visitor contributions increasing by 28% and 24% respectively [18] - Singapore: 2024H1 NBV was USD 220 million, up 27% YoY, with "Best Agents" NBV increasing by 31% [18] Financial Metrics - Embedded value (EV) increased by 8% YoY to USD 74.2 billion in 2024H1, driven by NBV growth and operational experience deviations [18] - Agent productivity and new agent numbers increased by 12% and 22% respectively in 2024H1, with "Best Agents" channel NBV up 19% [18] - 2024-2026 NBV growth expectations maintained at +12.4%, +10.8%, and +10.4%, with EV growth expected at +8.8%, +8.5%, and +8.3% [27] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at HKD 31.7 billion, HKD 33.9 billion, and HKD 36.3 billion, with YoY growth of +17.5%, +16.5%, and +11.9% respectively [27] Valuation - Current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PEV of 1.0x, 0.9x, and 0.9x, and PE of 19.0x, 17.7x, and 16.6x [27]

[Table_Page] 中报点评|保险Ⅱ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------|--------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券研究报告 | | [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 | | & | 海 外 】 友 邦 保 险 | | | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 买入 | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [15][18]. Core Insights - The company reported impressive performance in 1H24, with a year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and Annualized New Premiums (ANP) of 25% and 17% respectively, despite a high base effect [15]. - The company has set a target for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9%-11% for earnings per share (OPAT) from 2023 to 2026 [15][18]. - The investment performance is strong, with total investment and fixed income asset yields at 4.9% and 4.3% respectively, showing a slight year-on-year increase [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 1H24, the company achieved NBV of $24.55 billion and ANP of $45.46 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 25% and 17% [15]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders reached $33.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47% [15]. Market Segmentation - In Mainland China, NBV grew by 36% to $7.82 billion, driven by both individual and bancassurance channels [4]. - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 26% to $8.58 billion, with local customers and MCV channels both contributing positively [16]. - Southeast Asia showed robust growth, with NBV in Singapore and Thailand increasing by 31% and 18% respectively [17]. Financial Metrics - The company’s total investment assets are well-matched with liabilities, with 73% of fixed income assets having a duration of over 10 years [5]. - The company’s PEV (Price to Embedded Value) ratio for 2024E is 1.39x, indicating a favorable valuation [18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its regional expansion strategy, focusing on new branch performance as a long-term growth driver [4]. - The ongoing share buyback program, with $3.1 billion remaining, is expected to provide continuous support for the stock price [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in New Business Value (NBV) and sets an operational profit target for the next three years that exceeds expectations [2][4] - The current price of the stock is HKD 51.40, with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 47.3% (actual rate) / 53% (fixed rate), meeting expectations [11] - The after-tax operating profit grew by 3.5% (actual rate) / 7% (fixed rate) [11] - The embedded value increased by 1.2% compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and dividends [11] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for the first half of 2024 grew by 21% (actual rate) / 25% (fixed rate), exceeding expectations [11] - In Q2, the NBV growth rate was 5.6% (actual rate), showing a slowdown compared to Q1, attributed to a high base from the previous year [11] - Regionally, NBV growth in Hong Kong was 26%, driven by local customers and mainland visitors [11] - In mainland China, NBV growth reached 36%, with new branches contributing significantly [11] Operational Targets - Management has set a three-year target for compound growth in operating profit per share of 9%-11% from 2023 to 2026 [11] - This growth is expected to be driven by contributions from new business profitability and effective management of existing business [11] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.445 per share, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a payout ratio of 50.4% [11]

证券研究报告 证券研究报告 |分析师及联系人 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 友邦保险(01299) 股价相对走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023/8 2023/12 2024/4 2024/8 友邦保险 恒生指数 友邦保险发布 2024 年半年报。2024H1 公司实现 NBV 24.55 亿美元，同比增长 25%； 实现税后营运利润 33.86 亿美元，同比增长 7%。公司宣布派发中期股息 0.445 港 元/股，同比增长 5.2%。 ➢ NBV 延续高增，主因量价齐升 2024H1 公司实现 NBV 24.55 亿美元，同比+25%（Q1/Q2 分别为+27%/+15%，实际汇 率口径）。公司 NBV 延续高增，主要系：1）新单保费同比实现较好增长。2024H1 公司实现新单保费 45.46 亿美元，同比+17%。2)新业务价值率同比提升。2024H1 公司的新业务价值率为 53.9%，同比+3.3PCT。分渠道来看，对于代理人渠道，2024H1 公司代理人渠道的 NBV 同比+19%，主要得益于活跃代理人数增加及代理人产能提 升。2024H1 公司的活跃代理人数、代理人产能同比分 ...

本公告僅供參考，並不構成任何人士收購、購買或認購證券的邀請或要約。本公告並非亦無意作為在美國發售本公司證券供出 售的要約。本公司證券並無亦不會根據1933年美國證券法（經修訂）（「美國證券法」）登記，且不得未根據美國證券法登記或適 用豁免登記規定而在美國發售或出售。本公司證券並無亦無計劃在美國公開發售。 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止六個月的中期業績 新業務價值上升25%，創歷史新高 每股稅後營運溢利及每股產生的基本自由盈餘均增加10%；每股稅後營運溢利增長目標 向股東返還34億美元；每股中期股息上升5.2% • 新業務價值上升25%至24.55億美元，創歷史新高 內涵價值 • 上半年的營運及投資差異皆為正面差異 • 稅後營運溢利為33.86億美元，每股增加10% 產生的自由盈餘 • 按備考基準計算的股東資本比率(4)為242% • 於4月宣佈在股份回購計劃中增添20億美元，使總額增至120億美元 「友邦保險在2024年上半年締造卓越業績。我們的新業務價值創新高、盈利顯著增長、產生的自由盈餘強 勁，並向股東返還可觀的資本。我們同時亦公佈每股稅後營運溢利自2023年至2026年的複合年均增長率目 標為9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group with a target price of HKD 90.00 [20]. Core Insights - AIA Group achieved strong growth in 2023, setting a resilient growth base for 2024. The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 1H24 at actual exchange rates, despite a high growth base from the previous year [1][17]. - Operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year (AER) in 1H24, with a significant rebound in earnings per share (EPS) expected to increase by 6% due to share buybacks [1][53]. - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to USD 0.41, 0.54, and 0.61, down from previous estimates of USD 0.44, 0.60, and 0.70, respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA Group's gross premium income is projected to increase from USD 16.319 billion in 2022 to USD 19.150 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9.34% [54]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from USD 3.331 billion in 2022 to USD 4.561 billion in 2024, indicating a growth of 21.16% [54]. - The report anticipates a recovery in OPAT growth, projecting a 6% increase in 2024, with 1H24 and 2H24 expected to grow by 4% and 7% respectively [53]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a three-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model, incorporating both accounting metrics and embedded value metrics [56]. - The target price of HKD 90 is derived from an average valuation using the book value method (HKD 66) and the embedded value method (HKD 114) [39]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the Greater China region remains a primary source of growth for AIA Group, with strong performance in both mainland China and Hong Kong markets [35]. - The anticipated return of OPAT to positive growth is supported by a rebound in NBV, which had previously faced declines [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for AIA Group [25][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) of 31%, reaching USD 1.33 billion, alongside a new USD 2 billion share buyback plan, increasing the total to USD 12 billion [10][25]. - AIA's NBV margin improved to 54.2%, up by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [10][11]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from strong demand for savings products, particularly in the Chinese market, with a focus on the growth of its agency and bancassurance channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's insurance revenue for 2023 is projected at USD 17.514 billion, with a net profit of USD 3.764 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [13][40]. - The annualized new premium (ANP) is expected to reach USD 24.5 billion, marking a 26% increase [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 1.29x for 2024, suggesting that the current valuation is low with a high margin of safety [12][16]. - AIA is projected to have a reasonable value range of HKD 82.97 to HKD 86.71 based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [12][29]. Growth Drivers - The report notes that AIA's new agent recruitment and active agent numbers have both increased by over 20%, indicating strong growth in its distribution channels [11]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates in the Chinese market and across ASEAN regions, driven by the development of new branches and strong sales performance [12][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (01299) with a target price of HKD 80.0 [24] Core Views - AIA Group's NBV (New Business Value) for Q1 2024 reached USD 1.327 billion, a 31% YoY growth at constant exchange rates [3][7] - The company announced an additional USD 2 billion to its existing USD 10 billion share buyback program, to be completed within 12 months, exceeding market expectations [3][17] - AIA China and Hong Kong were the primary contributors to NBV growth, with YoY increases of 38% and 43%, respectively [7] - The company's optimized capital management policy includes a target dividend payout ratio of 75% of free surplus net amount, reflecting strong governance and confidence in future growth [17] Financial Performance - Annualized new premiums for Q1 2024 were USD 2.449 billion, up 26% YoY, with a new business value margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [7] - The agent channel contributed a 20% YoY increase in NBV, while the partner distribution channel saw a 70% YoY increase due to improved channel value rates [7] - AIA's total assets are projected to grow from USD 270.471 billion in 2022 to USD 350.804 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from USD 3.365 billion in 2022 to USD 5.430 billion in 2026 [10][15] Regional Performance - Mainland China's NBV growth outperformed domestic peers, driven by the "Best Agents" model, with new agent numbers and active new agent numbers both growing over 20% YoY [7] - Hong Kong's NBV growth was fueled by increased contributions from mainland tourists following the reopening of borders [7] - All other regions also achieved double-digit NBV growth, supported by the company's superior channel strategy and high-value products [7] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to USD 4.316 billion in 2024, USD 4.965 billion in 2025, and USD 5.405 billion in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 15%, 15%, and 9%, respectively [23] - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to increase from USD 68.865 billion in 2022 to USD 72.277 billion in 2026, with EV per share (EVPS) rising from USD 4.86 in 2022 to USD 5.10 in 2026 [18] Capital Management - AIA's optimized capital management policy includes a commitment to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, starting from 2024 [17] - The company plans to review its capital position regularly and return any excess capital beyond operational needs [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 90 HKD [14][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in new business value (NBV) of 1.327 billion USD in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%. The NBV margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [14][20]. - The company announced an increase of 2 billion USD to its existing 10 billion USD share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [14][20]. - The report highlights strong performance across various channels, with agent channels growing NBV by 20% and partner distribution channels increasing by 70% [14][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a new business value of 1.327 billion USD, up 31% year-on-year, with an annualized new premium growth of 26% to 2.449 billion USD [14][20]. - The NBV margin for AIA China rose from 52.7% in H2 2023 to 54.6% in Q1 2024, while AIA Hong Kong saw an increase from 58.1% to 64.3% [14][20]. - Key Southeast Asian markets, including Thailand and Malaysia, also reported double-digit growth in NBV, with Thailand maintaining a NBV margin exceeding 90% [14][20]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return 75% of its annual free surplus as dividends and share buybacks starting in 2024, with a reference free surplus of 3.9 billion USD for 2023 [14][20]. - As of April 25, 2024, the company had repurchased shares worth approximately 8.169 billion USD, accounting for 68.1% of the total buyback amount [14][20]. Earnings Forecast - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.40, 0.44, and 0.47 USD, respectively, while maintaining a P/EV valuation of 1.7x [14][20].