该行指，食品配送平台竞争自今年6月以来进一步加剧，平台间进行更激进投资，包括补贴。预计这次 对日常应用的投资持续时间，将较电商平台此前的几个季度投资更长。提高补贴促进交易量增长，鲜制 饮品公司今年的潜在盈利上行，但投资者关注明年在高基数下的前景，鲜制饮品行业竞争格局，以及对 消费者行为与价格认知潜在的长期影响。该行认为蜜雪集团及古茗短期股价将受配送平台策略的情绪影 响，投资者亦忧虑补贴正常化或导致每店交易额回落。古茗的投资者锁定期下周一(11日)届满，夏季后 的淡季或限制短期情绪。但该行对两者长期地位仍持乐观态度，认为补贴正常化或改善竞争格局。 高盛发布研报称，上调对古茗(01364)及蜜雪集团(02097)今年净利润预测9%及1%，反映食品配送补贴提 振的持续时间超预期，并上调古茗明年盈利预测4%，反映新产品表现稳健及2024至25年在品牌投资上 的努力。该行对古茗目标价由29.2港元上调至30港元，蜜雪目标价亦由597港元上调至599港元，两者评 级均为"买入"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the profit forecasts for Gu Ming (01364) and Mixue Group (02097) for this year by 9% and 1% respectively, indicating that the duration of food delivery subsidies has exceeded expectations [1] Company Summaries - Gu Ming's profit forecast for next year has been increased by 4%, reflecting strong performance of new products and efforts in brand investment for 2024 to 2025 [1] - The target price for Gu Ming has been raised from HKD 29.2 to HKD 30, while Mixue's target price has been adjusted from HKD 597 to HKD 599, with both companies rated as "Buy" [1] Industry Insights - Competition among food delivery platforms has intensified since June, with platforms engaging in more aggressive investments, including subsidies [1] - The expected duration of these investments in daily applications is anticipated to be longer than previous investments seen in e-commerce platforms [1] - Increased subsidies are expected to boost transaction volumes, leading to potential profit upside for fresh beverage companies this year [1] - Investors are concerned about the outlook for next year given the high base, the competitive landscape in the fresh beverage industry, and the potential long-term impacts on consumer behavior and price perception [1] - Short-term stock prices for Mixue Group and Gu Ming may be influenced by the sentiment surrounding delivery platform strategies, with worries that normalization of subsidies could lead to a decline in per-store transaction amounts [1] - The investor lock-up period for Gu Ming will expire next Monday (11th), and the seasonal slowdown after summer may limit short-term sentiment [1] - Despite these concerns, there is optimism regarding the long-term positions of both companies, with expectations that subsidy normalization may improve the competitive landscape [1]

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 古茗控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 呈交日期: 2025年8月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01364 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,378,185,860 | | 0 | | 2,378,185,860 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,378,185,860 | | 0 | | 2,378,185,860 | 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 III.已發行股份及 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with ample growth potential [2]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 112.79 billion, 132.31 billion, and 155.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 21.63 billion, 25.31 billion, and 29.96 billion RMB, with growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7,676 million RMB in 2023 to 15,586 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.1% in 2023, followed by 14.5%, 28.3%, 17.3%, and 17.8% in subsequent years [5][10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 2,403 million RMB in 2023 to 4,909 million RMB in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from 1,459 million RMB in 2023 to 2,996 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 85% in 2024 [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, focusing on high-quality, short-shelf-life ingredients [22]. - The business model emphasizes a high-density store network supported by self-built cold chain logistics, allowing for cost-effective delivery of fresh ingredients [10][22]. - The company plans to expand its store count significantly, with projections of opening 2,500, 3,000, and 3,500 new stores from 2025 to 2027, respectively [17]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of 29.66 HKD based on a projected PE ratio of 30x for 2025, which is above the industry average [20]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 57,790 million HKD [7]. Management and Governance - The management team is experienced, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and franchisee support [29][32]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founding team holding over 70% of the shares, ensuring alignment of interests [29][30]. Growth Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are expected to be the main source of growth [10][22]. - The company is leveraging digital operations and a robust supply chain to enhance its competitive edge [10][22].

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02145 | 下美股份 | 81.500 | 7.73% | | 06181 | 老铺黄金 | 731.500 | 6.01% | | 09863 | 零跑汽车 | 61.250 | 4.88% | | 02367 | 巨子生物 | 57.200 | 2.97% | | 01364 | 古茗 | 23.620 | 2.92% | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 250.000 | 2.80% | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 54.500 | 2.06% | | 09985 | 卫龙美味 | 12.160 | 1.50% | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 72.350 | 1.47% | | 01405 | 达势股份 | 85.250 | 1.31% | | 01318 | 毛戈平 | 100.400 | 0.80% | | 09896 | 名创优品 | 37.180 | 0.35% | | 09866 | 蔚来-SW | 37.920 | 0.32% | | 02097 | 蜜雪集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a non-GAAP net profit of approximately 1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a revenue growth of around 30%, aligning with market expectations [1]. Group 1: Revenue and Store Performance - The company anticipates strong same-store performance in the first half of 2025, driven by a low base and the competitive landscape in the takeaway market, with an expected same-store growth exceeding 20% in Q2 2025 [1][2]. - The total number of stores is projected to reach approximately 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with around 1,100 new stores added [1]. - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some openings are delayed due to renovation capacity constraints [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Margin Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected net profit margin increase of about 1 percentage point, leading to a non-GAAP net profit of around 1 billion yuan [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to expand due to increased cup output, although the lower margin from coffee machines may offset some of this growth [2]. - Marketing efforts, including hiring brand ambassadors and social media promotions, are expected to enhance coffee sales, with coffee cup output potentially exceeding 10% by June [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Long-term Outlook - The company has established a foundation for survival without relying on a single platform through digitalization and supply chain development, positioning itself well for competition post-subsidy [3]. - The long-term trend suggests an increase in market share, focusing on brand value and stable customer experience rather than short-term promotions [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing the adjusted net profit estimates by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a strong long-term competitive advantage for Gu Ming (01364), leading to an upward revision of adjusted net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 7% to 2.2 billion and 2.5 billion HKD respectively [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth and Store Expansion - The company is expected to achieve approximately 30% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by both same-store sales and new store openings [2] - The number of stores is projected to reach around 11,000 by the end of the first half of 2025, with about 1,100 new stores added [2] - The company signed nearly 2,000 new stores from January to May, although some openings are delayed due to renovation capacity constraints [2] Group 2: Profitability and Margin Improvement - The company is anticipated to see a recovery in profit margins, with a projected increase in non-GAAP net profit to around 1 billion HKD in the first half of 2025 [2] - The gross margin is expected to expand due to increased cup volume, although lower margins from coffee machines may offset some of this gain [2] - The company plans to enhance coffee product marketing, which is expected to increase coffee cup volume to over 10% by June [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Competitive Position - The outlook for same-store sales in the second half of the year remains positive, with expectations for accelerated store openings due to the easing of renovation constraints [3] - The company is leveraging delivery subsidies for new customer acquisition and product promotion, particularly for coffee products [3] - The long-term competitive advantage of Gu Ming is expected to be maintained, focusing on brand value and customer experience rather than solely on short-term promotions [3]

中金主要观点如下： 中金发布研报称，考虑古茗(01364)长期竞争优势稳固，上调25/26年经调整净利润9%/7%至22/25亿元。 公司当前交易在24.0/20.1倍25/26年P/E;维持目标价28港币，对应29.0/24.3倍25/26年P/E和21%上行空 间，维持跑赢行业评级。该行预计公司上半年收入增长30%左右，non-GAAP净利润为10亿元左右(注： 因公司未披露1H24数据，本报告中增速与数据均仅基于该行测算)，基本符合市场预期。 低基数叠加外卖大战催化，上半年同店表现强劲 受益于出杯量提升带来的规模效应，该行预计毛利率在1H24低基数下有所扩张，但考虑咖啡机毛利率 较低，或抵消部分毛利率升幅。费用率方面，2Q公司加大咖啡产品市场推广力度，聘请代言人并进行 社交媒体营销推广，该行预计6月咖啡出杯量占比或提升至10%以上，当前配备咖啡机门店约8,000家。 除咖啡专项推广及品牌升级营销外，规模效应提升带动其他SG&A费用率及整体费用率下降。该行预计 1H25净利率提升幅度为1ppt左右，并测算non-GAAP净利润为10亿元左右。 下半年同店展望积极，外卖补贴不改公司长期竞争优势 考虑装修产能 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [5][14]. Core Insights - The current landscape of the tea beverage industry is thriving, driven by the delivery battle and the peak season, with the company positioned as a leading player in the ready-to-drink tea market. The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 110.3 billion, 127.5 billion, and 147.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and net profits of 19.4 billion, 22.8 billion, and 26.5 billion yuan respectively [5]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 2010 in Zhejiang, has established itself as a leader in the ready-to-drink tea market, focusing on supply chain efficiency to support store expansion. As of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 87.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%, with adjusted net profits reaching 14.93 billion yuan, up 5.69% [9][21]. Market Position - The ready-to-drink tea market has evolved beyond basic product functionality, becoming a medium for young consumers to express lifestyle and values. The company holds a 9% and 18% market share in the overall and mass market segments respectively, ranking second overall and first in the mass market [10]. Competitive Advantages - The company has built a robust competitive edge through comprehensive support for franchisees and optimized supply chain management, allowing for profitable expansion without sacrificing quality. The company boasts the largest cold chain logistics infrastructure in the industry, with an average delivery cost of 0.9% of GMV, lower than the industry average of 2% [11]. Future Growth Potential - The company employs a regional density strategy, aiming for 500 stores per province as a key scale node. It currently operates in eight provinces, capturing 25% of the mass ready-to-drink tea market. The company has significant room for expansion, with estimates suggesting over 9,866 potential new stores in a neutral scenario and up to 19,314 if it continues to expand into currently unentered cities [12]. Financial Overview - The company has demonstrated resilient financial performance, with revenues of 87.91 billion yuan in 2024, driven by store expansion and increased demand for products. The revenue structure remains stable, with product sales accounting for nearly 80% of total revenue [38]. The adjusted net profit margin has shown fluctuations but remains competitive within the industry [43].

港股新消费概念股部分下跌，老铺黄金(06181.HK)跌超6%，古茗(01364.HK)、布鲁可(00325.HK)、巨子 生物(02367.HK)跌超4%。 ...