FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 古茗控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） 呈交日期: 2026年1月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01364 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | 本月底法定 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is stabilizing, with a differentiation in the tea beverage sector [7][10] - The investment strategy for 2026 is based on the belief that the restaurant sector will see a recovery, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and a favorable comparison to 2019 levels [10] - Key assumptions include a moderate recovery in CPI and stable single-store operations, while the main concern is that CPI recovery may fall short of expectations [10][11] Group 2 - The macro risk identified is that CPI recovery may not meet expectations, which could exert downward pressure on customer spending in the restaurant sector [11][12] - The operational risk involves single-store performance not meeting expectations, which could impact brand confidence and overall annual performance [13][14] - The report highlights specific stocks such as Haidilao and Yum China, noting that they could face risks related to CPI recovery [17][25] Group 3 - The report identifies Haidilao as a leading Chinese restaurant chain, which may face pressure on customer spending if CPI does not recover as anticipated [17][18] - Yum China, which includes KFC and Pizza Hut, is also highlighted for similar risks related to CPI recovery affecting customer spending [25][26] - Other notable companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are mentioned, with risks tied to single-store performance impacting their expansion and overall performance [33][40]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market have shown significant gains, with Mixue Group (02097.HK) rising over 5% [1] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) and Laoputang Gold (06181.HK) both increased by more than 4% [1] - Other stocks such as Blukoo (00325.HK), Guming (01364.HK), and Li Auto (02015.HK) also experienced upward movement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a strong performance in new consumption concept stocks, with several companies experiencing significant gains on December 22, including Mijia Group, which rose nearly 10% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Mijia Group (02097) increased by 9.97%, reaching a latest price of 434.400 with a total market capitalization of 164.9 billion and a year-to-date increase of 114.52% [2] - Laopu Gold (06181) rose by 5.24%, with a latest price of 692.500 and a market cap of 122.15 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 209.43% [2] - Guoquan (02517) saw a 4.49% increase, with a latest price of 3.490 and a market cap of 9.195 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 96.09% [2] - Blukoo (00325) increased by 3.75%, with a latest price of 71.850 and a market cap of 17.858 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 19.06% [2] - Pop Mart (09992) rose by 3.58%, with a latest price of 199.800 and a market cap of 268.32 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 125.10% [2] - Guming (01364) increased by 3.04%, with a latest price of 25.060 and a market cap of 59.597 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 178.14% [2] - Shanghai Auntie (02589) rose by 2.84%, with a latest price of 94.200 and a market cap of 9.91 billion, but has a year-to-date decrease of 16.17% [2] - Maogeping (01318) increased by 2.57%, with a latest price of 89.950 and a market cap of 44.092 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 56.50% [2] - Weilon Delicious (09985) rose by 2.50%, with a latest price of 11.480 and a market cap of 27.91 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 71.73% [2]

Group 1 - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a strong rebound, with notable gains in several companies [1] - Mixue Group (02097.HK) has seen its stock price increase by over 10% [1] - Both Laopu Gold (06181.HK) and Guoquan (02517.HK) have each risen by more than 5% [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Blukoo (00325.HK), Guming (01364.HK), and Pop Mart (09992.HK) are also witnessing upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Core Insights - Guming, a leading brand in the new tea beverage sector, has received two significant awards: "Most Investable Listed Company in Hong Kong" and "2025 Food and Beverage Industry Innovation Case" [1][5] - The recognition reflects the capital market's confidence in Guming's business model and long-term value, as well as its strong supply chain and product development capabilities [1][5] Company Performance - Guming was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 12, 2025, at an issue price of HKD 9.94 per share, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 230 billion on its first day [2] - As of December 2025, Guming's market capitalization has surpassed HKD 580 billion, with analysts predicting over 20% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit for the next two years [2] - The company reported a revenue of CNY 5.663 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and a net profit of CNY 1.625 billion, up 121.5% from the previous year [4] Business Strategy - Guming adopts a "steady and methodical" approach, focusing on regional penetration rather than rapid nationwide expansion, which has allowed it to build a strong supply chain and brand loyalty [3][4] - The company has increased its store count to 11,179 as of June 30, 2025, with 81% of stores located in second-tier cities and below, and 43% in rural markets [3] Supply Chain and Innovation - Guming's supply chain efficiency is a key factor in its success, with a logistics network that allows for low delivery costs, accounting for only about 1% of GMV [5][6] - The company emphasizes product innovation based on consumer demand for health and quality, rather than pursuing innovation for its own sake [6] Market Position and Future Outlook - Guming's success is seen as a model for the industry, demonstrating that steady operations can lead to long-term growth in a competitive market [4][6] - The company is positioned to continue leading the new tea beverage industry towards a healthier and more sustainable future as market concentration increases [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in the value focus of the Chinese dining industry, with tea beverage brands like Mixue Group and Gu Ming making notable entries into the global market, while traditional Chinese dining categories like hot pot are largely absent from the top rankings [2][3][7] - The "2025 Hurun Global Dining Enterprise Value TOP 50" list shows that Mixue Group ranks seventh with a valuation of 150 billion RMB, surpassing Yum China, indicating its leadership position in the Chinese dining sector [3][4] - The list reveals that among the 11 Chinese companies, five are from the ready-to-drink tea segment, underscoring the dominance of tea beverage brands in the current market landscape [4][5] Group 2 - The tea beverage sector's success is attributed to its high standardization, light asset model, and capital-friendly nature, allowing for rapid expansion and consistent profit margins [7][9] - The innovation speed in the tea beverage industry is significantly higher than that of traditional dining, with 73 out of 130 brands launching new products in the first half of 2025, primarily focused on ready-to-drink items [7][10] - In contrast, traditional Chinese dining faces challenges in standardization and high operational costs, making it difficult to achieve the scale and capital recognition seen in the tea beverage sector [9][10] Group 3 - Mixue Ice City leads globally in store count with over 53,000 locations, surpassing McDonald's and Starbucks, indicating its rapid growth and market penetration [6][12] - The overseas expansion of tea beverage brands is crucial for their growth, with Mixue already having over 4,700 international stores, contributing significantly to their revenue [11][12] - The tea beverage sector is becoming a new core engine in the consumer market, with several leading brands gaining attention in the Hong Kong stock market, reflecting their growth potential and market interest [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Gu Ming (01364) has become a leading brand with over 10,000 stores by focusing on "regional cultivation" and efficient supply chain collaboration [1] - The company targets lower-tier markets, with delivery costs below the industry average, enabling a robust franchise expansion [1] - The expected nationwide store opening potential exceeds 40,000, with an initial "buy" rating given [1] Group 2 - The current market size of China's ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2027 [2] - The ready-to-drink tea market is expected to reach 313 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.8% from 2024 to 2028 [2] - The mid-range and budget segments of ready-to-drink tea are anticipated to have greater growth potential, with CAGRs of 20.8% and 20.1% respectively from 2023 to 2028 [2] Group 3 - Gu Ming's core characteristics for store expansion include a focus on regional cultivation and deeper market penetration, with nearly 80% of stores located in second-tier and below cities [3] - The company excels in supply chain management, providing cold chain delivery to 97% of stores at a cost below 1% of GMV, compared to the industry average of about 2% [3] - The franchise management system is mature, leading to a shorter payback period for franchisees and a lower closure rate compared to industry norms [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Gu Ming (01364) has become a leading brand in the industry with over 10,000 stores, leveraging regional cultivation and efficient supply chain collaboration [1][2] - The company focuses on lower-tier markets, with delivery costs below the industry average, enabling a robust expansion of its franchise system [1][2] - The report anticipates that Gu Ming has the potential to open over 40,000 stores nationwide, with a "buy" rating assigned for the first coverage [1][2] Group 2 - Gu Ming's first store was opened in 2010, and by the first half of 2025, the number of stores is expected to exceed 10,000 [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 120.4 billion, 143.2 billion, and 167.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.0%, 18.9%, and 17.0% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 25.8 billion, 28.1 billion, and 30.8 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 77.9%, 9.0%, and 9.8% respectively [2] Group 3 - The current market for ready-to-drink beverages in China is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024 and reach over 1 trillion yuan by 2027, with ready-to-drink tea expected to grow significantly [3] - The mid-range and budget segments of the ready-to-drink tea market are anticipated to have greater growth potential, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 20.8% and 20.1% from 2023 to 2028 [3] - The penetration rate of ready-to-drink beverages in lower-tier cities has shown substantial growth, with GMV compound growth rates of 28.0% and 33.2% for third-tier and fourth-tier cities from 2018 to 2023 [3] Group 4 - Gu Ming's competitive advantages include excellent supply chain management and a mature franchise management system, with nearly 80% of its stores located in second-tier and lower cities [4] - The company implements a supply chain-first approach, achieving cold chain delivery to 97% of its stores at a cost below 1% of GMV, compared to the industry average of about 2% [4] - The report suggests that the company can replicate its current store density in Zhejiang across the country, projecting a long-term store ceiling of over 40,000 [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]