Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is the leading brand in the mid-range ready-to-drink tea segment, achieving a store count of 9,914 by the end of 2024, making it the largest in its category [1][16]. - The mid-range ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately RMB 161.5 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The company has a robust growth strategy focusing on store expansion and improving same-store sales, with expectations of net store additions of 2,100, 2,350, and 2,450 in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2010, the company has expanded rapidly across China, with a significant presence in 17 provinces and a focus on franchise operations [1][16]. - The company went public on February 12, 2025, marking a significant milestone as the first Zhejiang tea company to list [1][16]. Market Analysis - The mid-range tea segment is characterized by intense competition, with the company holding the largest market share as of 2023, followed closely by other brands [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and product innovation to maintain competitive advantage in a crowded market [2][15]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is driven by a dual strategy of expanding its store network and enhancing the average sales per store, with a projected average GMV of RMB 2.34 million per mature franchise store [3][4]. - The company aims to reach a store count of 27,000 by 2030 under a neutral scenario, with revenue and profit projections of RMB 29.3 billion and RMB 5.3 billion respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 87.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 113.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [5][36]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 15.4 billion in 2024 to RMB 20.1 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 30.1% [5][36]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target PE ratio of 32-35x for 2025, with a market capitalization range of RMB 64.2 billion to RMB 70.2 billion, indicating a potential upside from the current share price [4][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued upward trend of tea beverage stocks in the Hong Kong market, with Cha Bai Dao experiencing a significant increase of 12.20% [1] - Other tea beverage companies also saw gains, with Gu Ming rising by 4.53% and Hu Shang A Yi increasing by 2.41% [1] - The article notes that the recent intensification of competition in the food delivery sector has positively impacted the tea beverage industry, benefiting from stable output, low customer spending per order, and high consumption frequency during the peak season [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for the tea beverage sector continues to rise, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] - Cha Bai Dao (02555.HK) has seen a surge of over 17% in its stock price [1] - Nayuki's Tea (02150.HK) has increased by more than 8% [1] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) has experienced a rise of over 5% [1] - Other companies such as Hu Shang A Yi (02589.HK) and Mi Xue Group (02097.HK) are also following the upward trend [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong tea beverage sector has seen a collective rise, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Cha Bai Dao (13.54%), Gu Ming (7.88%), and Nai Xue's Tea (6.58%) [2][3] - Over the past five trading days, Nai Xue's Tea has experienced a cumulative increase of 35%, while Gu Ming and Cha Bai Dao have both risen over 16% [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in tea beverage stocks is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including subsidies from delivery platforms, the arrival of the summer consumption peak, and government consumption subsidies [4] - Major delivery platforms like Alibaba and Meituan have launched significant promotional campaigns, offering various discount coupons that have led to increased sales for tea beverage stores [4][5] - The summer heat has driven consumer demand for refreshing tea beverages, with top brands like Nai Xue's Tea and Cha Bai Dao reporting strong sales, including over 700,000 cups sold of Cha Bai Dao's lychee series since mid-June [5] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the tea beverage industry is poised for a new consumption peak driven by a combination of platform subsidies, seasonal benefits, and policy incentives [6] - Huaxin Securities highlights that the tea beverage sector, characterized by stable output, low average spending, and high consumption frequency, stands to benefit significantly from the current competitive landscape [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent competition between Alibaba and Meituan in the food delivery sector has significantly boosted the sales of tea beverage companies, leading to a surge in orders and market activity [3][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 7, tea beverage stocks experienced a collective rise, with notable increases: Cha Bai Dao up 11% to HKD 10.66, Nai Xue's Tea up 3.95% to HKD 1.58, Gu Ming up 6.15% to HKD 27.6, Hu Shang A Yi up 5.68% to HKD 141.3, and Mi Xue Group up 5.74% to HKD 543.5 [1]. - During the weekend of July 5-6, Nai Xue's Tea reported over 1 million delivery orders, a 50% increase compared to the previous period, with some stores seeing a 230% increase in orders [8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The intense competition between Alibaba and Meituan led to the issuance of substantial discount coupons, resulting in a nationwide surge in food delivery orders, with Meituan reporting over 1.2 billion orders on July 5 [3][5]. - The "takeaway war" has been beneficial for the ready-to-drink tea market, as platforms like JD, Meituan, and Ele.me have increased their delivery subsidies since April, making tea and coffee consumption the biggest beneficiaries of this traffic boom [9].

7月5日至7月6日，阿里、美团外卖大战白热化。 7月7日，茶饮股集体高开。截至发稿，茶百道(02555.HK)涨11%，报10.66港元；奈雪的茶(02150.HK)涨4%，报1.58港元；古茗(01364.HK)涨6%，报27.6港 元；沪上阿姨(02589.HK)涨6%，报141.3港元；蜜雪集团(02097.HK)涨6%，报543港元。 7月5日至7月6日，阿里、美团外卖大战白热化。两个平台分别发放外卖大额券，其中包括"满25减21""满25减20""满16减16"等多张无门槛的外卖券。7月5 日，"美团崩了"登上热搜。7月5日夜间，美团发布了战报，表示截至当日22时54分，美团即时零售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单。其中，餐饮订单已超过1亿 单。 在此背景下，多家茶饮店迎来爆单。奈雪的茶方面数据显示，7月5日至7月6日周末两天外卖订单破峰值，两天突破100万单，环比增长50%，单店最高环比 增长230%。7月7日下午，第一财经记者在上海市浦东新区一家蜜雪冰城门口看见外卖小哥不断进出，送出一单又一单。不过店员表示，外卖生意已经不如 刚过去的周末，但比上个工作日好些。 华西证券在一份公开研报中指出，"外卖大 ...

7月7日，茶咖日报的主要内容有： 受益于"外卖大战"，新茶饮股价普涨 7月7日，港股市场上新茶饮相关个股集体走强。截至收盘，茶百道(02555.HK)、古茗(01364.HK)、蜜雪 集团(02097.HK)、沪上阿姨（02589.HK）、奈雪的茶（02150.HK），分别上涨11.04%、6.15%、 5.74%、5.68%、3.95%。 股价普涨背后是外卖平台竞争的白热化催动下的爆单潮。淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布，日订单数超过 8000万，其中非餐饮订单超过1300万，日活跃用户超过2亿。 华鑫证券研报称，"外卖大战"爆发，新式茶饮充分受益。在外卖爆发利好与旺季催化下，建议关注新茶 饮机会，餐饮供应链可低位布局。7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布启动500亿元规模补贴计划，将在未来12个月 直补消费者及商家，7月5日美团上线大量大额优惠券进行定向狙击，当日截至22时54分美团即时零售日 订单突破1.2亿单，其中出餐稳定、客单低、消费频次高的茶饮行业在此轮竞争中充分受益。 蜜雪冰城香港涉食品安全风波门店结业 上月，蜜雪冰城香港沙田好运中心分店卷入食品安全风波，被发现一个冰冻甜点样本的大肠菌群含量和 总含菌量超出当地法例上 ...

Market Overview - The US 90-day exemption period is ending this week, leading to ongoing market focus on US tariff negotiations [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12% at 23,887.83 points, with a total turnover of HKD 193.79 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% to 5,229.56 points, indicating mixed performance across indices [1] Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led blue-chip stocks, rising 3.85% to HKD 18.32, contributing 2.58 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Macau's June gaming revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included China Resources Land (01109) up 3.45% and Ideal Automotive (02015) up 2.8% [2] Sector Highlights Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin concept is gaining traction, with companies like Guotai Junan International (01788) rising 10.77% [3] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is set to take effect on August 1, with limited licenses expected to be issued [3] Beverage Sector - Tea beverage stocks surged, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 11.04% amid a competitive delivery market [4] - The delivery battle between Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted tea beverage consumption [4] Real Estate Sector - The housing market is under scrutiny, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and activating demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the third quarter will be crucial for policy direction affecting the real estate market [5] Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China (02282) up 2.38% and overall positive sentiment in the Macau gaming market [6] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in Macau's July gaming revenue [6] Power Sector - Power stocks saw a general increase, driven by record electricity demand due to high temperatures [7] - The maximum national electricity load reached 14.65 billion kilowatts, marking a significant year-on-year increase [7] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.96% as gold prices fell below USD 3,310 per ounce [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced expectations for US interest rate cuts [7] Notable Stock Movements - H&H International Holdings (01112) issued a profit warning, falling 7.14% [8] - Jihong Co. (02603) saw a significant rise of 11.62%, with projected net profit growth of 97.25% to 108.21% for the first half of 2025 [9] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) reached a new high, reflecting strong growth potential compared to industry peers [10] - FWD Group (01828) debuted on the market, closing up 1.05% with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 29.53 billion [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.02% and the ChiNext Index down over 1% [3][4] - A total of 3,255 stocks rose, while 1,978 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 12,270.67 billion CNY [4][5] Electric Power Sector - Electric power stocks surged against the market trend, with companies like ShaoNeng Co., China Huadian Corp, and Shimao Energy hitting the daily limit [5][6] - The increase in electricity demand was driven by high temperatures across multiple regions, leading to a record high in national electricity load on July 4 [5] Charging Pile Sector - The charging pile sector saw significant gains, with companies like Aotexun hitting the daily limit [12][13] - A notice from the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities by the end of 2027 [15][17] - The notice also highlighted the integration of charging facilities with local economic development and the importance of smart management and technology upgrades in the charging infrastructure [16][17] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks experienced a rally, with companies like Yuhua Development and Shahe Co. reaching their daily limits [8] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called for accelerated construction of safe, comfortable, and green housing to stabilize market expectations and activate demand [8] Cross-Border Payment and Stablecoin Sector - Stocks related to cross-border payments and stablecoins showed volatility, with companies like Zhongyi Technology and Jingbeifang hitting the daily limit [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.45%, down 107 points, closing at 23,808 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - Early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 109.5 billion [1] Stablecoin Regulation - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to release guidelines for stablecoin regulations this month, aiming to issue licenses within the year [1] - Stocks related to stablecoins saw significant gains, with Guotai Junan International rising by 8.2%, ZhongAn Online increasing by 5.64%, and Yike rising over 9% [1] New Tea Beverage Market - A subsidy war in the takeaway market has ignited the new tea beverage sector, with Guming and Cha Baidao both rising over 9% [1] Digital Health Services - Health Road saw its stock rise over 9% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on a digital health service platform [1] Gaming Industry - Morgan Stanley reported that Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions by 9% [1] - Gaming stocks continued their upward trend, with Amax Holdings up 3.7%, Melco International Development up 1.6%, and MGM China up 2.1% [1] Medical Device Sector - In response to China's reciprocal restrictions on EU medical devices, the National Medical Products Administration issued support for high-end medical devices [1] - Medical device stocks experienced broad gains, with Spring Medical up 1.86%, Yongsheng Medical up 7.27%, and Xinwei Medical-B up 5.5% [1] Company Developments - China Rare Earth Holdings plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Jihong Co. saw its stock rise over 10%, with a projected over 55% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [3] - H&H International Holdings is expected to see a decline in net profit by 45% to 65% for the first half of the year, resulting in a drop of over 6% in its stock price [4]