Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company, Guming, is a leading player in the ready-to-drink beverage market, with a strong cold chain logistics system serving as its competitive moat [4][14] - Guming has a significant market share in the Chinese ready-to-drink tea market, with approximately 9.1%, ranking second after Mixue Ice City, and holds the largest market share in the 10-20 RMB price range [4][14] - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 11.79 billion RMB in 2024 to 18.34 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming was founded in 2010 in Zhejiang and has expanded to over 11,179 stores across more than 200 cities, with 81% of its stores located in second-tier and lower cities [4][14] - The company primarily generates revenue from selling raw materials and equipment to franchisees, accounting for 80% of its income [17] Financial Analysis - In 2024, Guming achieved a revenue of 8.791 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, with a GMV of 22.4 billion RMB, up 16.57% [4][27] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 1.542 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 17.5% [30] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow of 1.34 billion RMB and cash equivalents of 3.26 billion RMB as of the first half of 2025 [35] Industry Insights - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 1.1634 trillion RMB by 2028 [42] - The competition in the tea beverage sector is intense, particularly in the mid-range price segment, while the coffee market is experiencing a more moderate competitive landscape [48] - The report highlights the potential for growth in lower-tier cities, where the per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages is still low compared to higher-tier cities [43][44] Store Performance and Expansion Strategy - Guming's single-store model shows resilience, with an average monthly GMV of 197,000 RMB in 2024, despite a slight decline in cup sales [69] - The company is focusing on maintaining the health of its franchisees and expanding its presence in neighboring provinces, with a new franchise policy that lowers the entry barrier to 230,000 RMB [4][5][68]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gu Ming, is the largest mid-priced tea beverage brand in China, focusing on fresh and high-quality products to attract and retain consumers, supported by a robust supply chain and extensive store network [1][2][3] Company Overview - Gu Ming has established itself as a leading brand in the mid-priced tea beverage sector, with a slogan that emphasizes daily consumption without fatigue, offering a diverse range of fresh and delicious products at affordable prices [1] - The company has a significant presence in second-tier and lower cities, with a leading number of stores and the largest cold chain logistics system in the industry [1] Product Strategy - The product logic is defined by "fresh and high quality," with a focus on consistent product offerings and competitive pricing to drive consumer repurchase [2] - Gu Ming employs a strategy of large-scale procurement of fresh fruits and self-built cold chain logistics to enhance cost control and quality assurance, supporting store expansion [2] Market Potential - The mid-priced tea beverage segment is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [3] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment, with Gu Ming positioned to increase its market share due to its strong supply chain and store management [3] Financial Projections - Gu Ming is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2.19 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.88 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 14%, and 15% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 21, and 18 times for the same period [3]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept in the Hong Kong stock market weakened in the afternoon session on October 24 [2] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) experienced a decline of over 2% [2] - Other companies such as Blu-ray (00325.HK) and Cha Bai Dao (02555.HK) also followed the downward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Guming (01364) and keeps previous profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.19, 2.50, and 2.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44%, 14%, and 15%, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 18 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Guming is positioned as a leading player in the mid-priced tea beverage market, with high quality-price ratio and stable quality control enhancing sales momentum [1] - The company is expected to achieve a store count of 35,000 to 40,000 in the future, supported by systematic advantages in operational efficiency and store layout [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [1] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment compared to coffee and affordable tea markets, indicating potential for Guming's market share to increase [1] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share competition, with Guming expected to maintain strong repurchase performance due to solid supply chain construction and store management [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Gu Ming (01364) and keeps previous profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be 2.19 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44%, 14%, and 15% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 18 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gu Ming is recognized as a leading player in the mid-priced tea beverage market, benefiting from high quality-price ratio and stable quality control, which continuously strengthens sales momentum [1] - The company is expected to achieve a store count of 35,000 to 40,000 in the future, supported by systematic advantages in operational efficiency and store layout [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [1] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment compared to coffee and affordable tea markets, indicating potential for Gu Ming's market share to increase [1] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share competition; Gu Ming's robust supply chain and store management contribute to stronger repurchase performance, making it less likely for new brands to rapidly gain market share in a weakening demand environment [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the mid-priced tea beverage market, focusing on fresh and high-quality products while expanding its store network in lower-tier cities [8][14] - The company has a robust supply chain and logistics system, which supports its operational efficiency and product freshness, contributing to its competitive advantage [8][39] - The mid-priced tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with the company projected to increase its market share and store count in the coming years [8][14] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the largest mid-priced tea beverage brand in China, with a focus on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee [14] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has 11,179 stores and a terminal GMV of 22.4 billion RMB [14][15] - The company employs a unique regional strategy to optimize its store distribution and supply chain efficiency [14][24] 2. Product Strategy - The company emphasizes a product logic of "fresh and high-quality," with a focus on frequent product updates and maintaining consistent quality [39] - The menu typically features around 30 SKUs, with a pricing strategy that keeps most products under 15 RMB [40][50] - The company has successfully captured consumer trends and adapted its offerings accordingly, leading to strong sales performance [49][51] 3. Market Dynamics - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is expected to exceed 500 billion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a CAGR of nearly 15% [8][39] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from market consolidation opportunities within the mid-priced segment [8][39] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share, and the company has demonstrated strong performance in this area due to its supply chain and operational management [8][39] 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2.19 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.88 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 14%, and 15% respectively [1][8] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 18 times for the same period [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline in new consumption concept stocks, with several companies experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Wei Long Mei Wei (卫龙美味) fell by 6.72%, with a latest price of 12.220 and a market capitalization of 29.709 billion [2]. - Bluestone (布鲁可) decreased by 5.91%, priced at 97.950, with a total market value of 24.37 billion [2]. - Naixue's Tea (奈雪的茶) dropped by 5.65%, trading at 1.170, and has a market cap of 1.995 billion [2]. - Hu Shang A Yi (沪上阿姨) saw a decline of 5.57%, with a price of 111.900 and a market capitalization of 11.772 billion [2]. - Miniso (名创优品) decreased by 5.51%, priced at 41.880, with a total market value of 51.164 billion [2]. - Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) fell by 5.14%, trading at 273.400, with a market cap of 367.161 billion [2]. - XPeng Motors (小鹏汽车-W) decreased by 4.77%, with a latest price of 78.850 and a market capitalization of 150.328 billion [2]. - Mixue Group (密雪集团) dropped by 4.68%, priced at 423.400, with a market cap of 160.731 billion [2]. - Gu Ming (古茗) saw a decline of 4.66%, trading at 24.120, with a total market value of 57.362 billion [2]. - Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) decreased by 4.74%, with a price of 95.550 and a market capitalization of 38.039 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption concept stocks in Hong Kong have shown a significant upward trend, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth in this sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shangmei Holdings (02145.HK) increased by 7.43%, reaching HKD 101.2 [1] - Guming (01364.HK) rose by 7.33%, trading at HKD 26.08 [1] - Mixue Group (02097.HK) saw a gain of 6.53%, priced at HKD 443.8 [1] - Miniso (09896.HK) climbed by 5.15%, with a share price of HKD 45.32 [1] - Blukoo (00325.HK) experienced a 4.99% increase, valued at HKD 107.4 [1] - Laopu Gold (06181.HK) grew by 4.04%, trading at HKD 721 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption concept stocks have generally risen, indicating a positive market sentiment towards consumer-driven sectors amid external economic challenges in China [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Upme Holdings (02145) increased by 7.43%, trading at 101.2 HKD [1] - Gu Ming (01364) rose by 7.33%, reaching 26.08 HKD [1] - Mixue Group (02097) saw a 6.53% increase, priced at 443.8 HKD [1] - Miniso (09896) gained 5.15%, with a price of 45.32 HKD [1] - Blukoo (00325) went up by 4.99%, trading at 107.4 HKD [1] - Laopu Gold (06181) increased by 4.04%, priced at 721 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Cathay Securities highlighted the increasing importance of boosting domestic consumption due to greater external disturbances [1] - The firm anticipates that the role of consumption in driving economic growth will strengthen under policy support [1] - Despite a short-term overheating in some areas of the Hong Kong new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumer behavior remains unchanged [1] - The firm expects continued growth in consumption related to self-indulgence and cost-effectiveness, particularly in sectors like trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption concept stocks in Hong Kong have generally risen, indicating a positive market sentiment towards consumer-related sectors amid external uncertainties in China [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Upme Holdings (02145) increased by 7.43%, reaching HKD 101.2 [1] - Gu Ming (01364) rose by 7.33%, trading at HKD 26.08 [1] - Mixue Group (02097) saw a 6.53% increase, priced at HKD 443.8 [1] - Miniso (09896) gained 5.15%, with a price of HKD 45.32 [1] - Blukoo (00325) went up by 4.99%, now at HKD 107.4 [1] - Laopu Gold (06181) increased by 4.04%, trading at HKD 721 [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Cathay Securities highlighted the increasing importance of boosting domestic consumption due to greater external disturbances [1] - The firm anticipates that the role of consumption in driving economic growth will strengthen under policy support [1] - Despite a short-term overheating in some areas of Hong Kong's new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumer behavior remains unchanged [1] - The firm expects continued growth in self-indulgent and cost-effective consumption categories, such as trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [1]