Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Gu Ming (01364) [1] Core Insights - Gu Ming has achieved a same-store sales growth of approximately 10% this year, with store opening plans reaching 1,500 to 2,000, exceeding previous estimates [1] - UBS has raised the target price for Gu Ming from HKD 19.28 to HKD 31.15, corresponding to forecasted P/E ratios of 34x and 27x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1] - The current valuation of Gu Ming is considered attractive at 1.3x dynamic P/E compared to the industry average of 1.9x [1] - The management has reiterated a long-term goal of reaching 30,000 stores by 2030, supporting an estimated annual store growth of about 20% [1] Financial Projections - UBS has increased the earnings per share forecast for Gu Ming for 2025 to 2027 by 6% to 11%, driven by a revenue forecast increase of 6% to 12%, reaching RMB 11.5 billion, RMB 14.1 billion, and RMB 17.2 billion respectively [2] - Same-store sales are expected to grow by 6% in 2025, supported by the introduction of coffee beverages [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ready-to-drink beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with a significant increase in market share expected for affordable ready-to-drink products in the future [1] - In 2023, the ready-to-drink beverage market size in China reached 517.5 billion yuan, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, a 15.7% increase from 2018 [1] - The market size for ready-to-drink beverages is projected to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, with a market share of 49.2%, reflecting a growth of 12.9% from 2023 [1] Group 2 - The company ranked second in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a GMV of 19.2 billion yuan and a market share of 9.1%, operating 9,001 stores nationwide [1] - The company’s product development capabilities are a core competitive advantage, focusing on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, with regular new product launches [1] - The company has upgraded its product "Super A Cheese Grape" 11 times since its launch in June 2019, ensuring consistent taste by using different grape varieties seasonally [1] Group 3 - The company has established 22 warehousing bases nationwide, with approximately 76% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring efficient logistics [2] - The average logistics cost for the company is less than 1% of the total GMV as of the end of 2023 [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.925 billion yuan, 2.288 billion yuan, and 2.635 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.19%, 18.87%, and 15.17% respectively [2]

Group 1 - The stocks of Bruker (00325.HK), Mao Geping (01318.HK), and Gu Ming (01364.HK) have experienced declines of 5.34%, 3.28%, and 2.95% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading brand in the fresh tea beverage sector, driven by product innovation and an efficient supply chain, which supports its high operational efficiency [5][8]. - The fresh beverage market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, increasing its share of the overall beverage market [7][24]. - The company holds a strong competitive position, ranking second in the fresh tea beverage market with a GMV of 19.2 billion yuan and a market share of 9.1% as of the end of 2023 [7][32]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of June 4, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 29.50 HKD, with a total market capitalization of approximately 70,156.48 million HKD [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 7,675.67 million yuan, 2024: 8,791.36 million yuan, 2025E: 10,967.55 million yuan, 2026E: 12,926.70 million yuan, 2027E: 14,761.33 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 38.07%, 14.54%, 24.75%, 17.86%, and 14.19% [6][56]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,079.63 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 2,635.01 million yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 194.48%, 36.95%, 30.19%, 18.87%, and 15.17% [6][56]. - The company is expected to maintain a high return on equity (ROE), projected at 185.19% in 2023, declining to 29.65% by 2027 [6][56]. Industry Trends - The fresh beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the current market size at 517.5 billion yuan, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, and expected to grow to 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028 [7][24]. - The company has a robust product development capability, focusing on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, with continuous product innovation [10][47]. - The supply chain efficiency is enhanced by a network of 22 warehouses, with 76% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring timely deliveries [51][53]. Competitive Position - The company is well-positioned in the competitive landscape of the fresh tea beverage market, with a solid ecological foundation and a significant number of stores [7][32]. - The report identifies comparable companies in the same sector, such as Mixue Group and Tehai International, to benchmark the company's valuation [8][56].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the target price for Gu Ming (01364.HK) to HKD 31.15 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing strong same-store sales growth and an aggressive store opening plan as key factors for the positive outlook [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gu Ming has achieved approximately 10% same-store sales growth this year, exceeding UBS's previous estimates [1] - The company's store opening plan is set to reach between 1,500 to 2,000 locations, which is also better than prior expectations [1] - The strong performance is attributed to product innovation and subsidies from JD.com in food delivery [1] Group 2: Valuation and Forecast - UBS has increased its earnings forecast for Gu Ming, projecting it to be 4% to 14% higher than market peers [1] - The target price adjustment from HKD 19.28 to HKD 31.15 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method [1] - The new target price corresponds to forecasted price-to-earnings ratios of 34 times and 27 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 1.4 times for 2025, which is lower than the average P/E ratios of 43 times and 35 times for new consumption peers [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Guming (1364.HK) [5][13]. Core Viewpoints - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with multiple advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to nationwide coverage with over 9,914 stores across 200 cities by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that support rapid growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, where the market potential is significant [2][11]. - Guming's average quarterly repurchase rate reached 53% in 2023, significantly higher than the industry average of less than 30% [25][60]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Guming has been deeply involved in the fresh tea beverage market for over a decade, establishing a strong presence in lower-tier cities and towns, which are expected to see a CAGR of over 20% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2]. - The company operates a franchise model that has attracted many franchisees due to high single-store profitability, facilitating rapid store expansion [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in 2024, with the fresh tea beverage segment being the largest, estimated at over 300 billion yuan [1][52]. - The report highlights that the affordable price segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong demand for Guming's offerings [1][55]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion yuan, 2.36 billion yuan, and 2.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 yuan [3][4]. - Guming's revenue is projected to grow from 7.68 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.26 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][8]. Competitive Advantages - Guming's supply chain is identified as a core competitive advantage, enabling the company to offer high-quality products at competitive prices while quickly responding to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy that enhances brand recognition and customer loyalty, further driving sales growth [25][60]. Expansion Plans - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on regions such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi, with a long-term goal of reaching 20,000 stores [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is expected to contribute positively to store revenues, with sales growth of approximately 10% per store [2][11].

Group 1 - Non-alcoholic beverage stocks in Hong Kong showed strong performance in the afternoon session [1] - Cha Bai Dao (02555.HK) and Gu Ming (01364.HK) both increased by over 7% [1] - Mi Xue Group (02097.HK) rose by more than 4%, while Uni-President China (00220.HK) gained over 2% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，自4月11日京东集团-SW(09618)宣布100亿元人民币外卖补贴计划 以来，伴随饿了么和美团-W(03690)加大补贴与投资力道，该行覆盖的即制饮品公司股价平均上升 39%。根据报道与渠道调查，京东外卖订单中有很大一部分流向即制饮品品牌，其中瑞幸和库迪咖啡的 订单量位居前列，其次是一些大型即制茶饮品牌。 渠道调查显示，参与促销活动的门店订单量可能翻倍以上，但影响程度因品牌参与策略、价格定位和外 送占比而异。整体上，参与促销活动的品牌应能受惠，该行认为优质企业如蜜雪冰城(02097)、古茗 (01364)和百胜中国(09987)仍将是长期赢家。 该行根据外送补贴的推动和年内趋势，上调了古茗和蜜雪冰城的盈利预测，并提高了两者的估值倍数， 反映其稳健的短期盈利前景以及与其他新消费品牌的交易倍数一致。古茗2025至2027年盈利预测被上调 5%至9%，反映更快的门店扩张速度以及更强的门店商品成交额增长，2026年预计市盈率从20倍上调至 26倍，仍较即制茶饮行业龙头蜜雪冰城低约20%。目标价由21港元升至29.2港元，维持"买入"评级。 高盛上调蜜雪冰城2025至2027年盈利 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting business models of tea beverage brands in China, with a focus on the shift from self-operated models to asset-light franchise operations, exemplified by brands like Mixue and Bawang Chaji [1][29]. Business Models - Mixue and other emerging brands like Gu Ming, Hu Shang A Yi, and Cha Bai Dao primarily adopt a franchise model for rapid expansion, generating revenue mainly from supplying products and equipment to franchisees rather than from franchise fees [1][2]. - In contrast, traditional franchise models, such as McDonald's, rely heavily on rental income and franchise fees, providing a safety net even if franchisees perform poorly [2]. Marketing Strategies - Mixue employs social media and various offline activities to engage consumers, with a marketing expenditure of 1.599 billion RMB in 2024, representing 6.44% of total revenue [3][4]. - Gu Ming's marketing spending surged by 42.43% to 479 million RMB, accounting for 5.45% of its revenue [5][6]. - Hu Shang A Yi focuses on a multi-channel marketing approach, with a marketing budget of 394 million RMB, which is 12.0% of its revenue [7][9]. - Cha Bai Dao's marketing expenses increased by 201.64% to 395 million RMB, making up 8.03% of its revenue, reflecting the competitive landscape [10][11]. - Bawang Chaji's marketing costs skyrocketed by 323.96% to 1.109 billion RMB, constituting 8.94% of its revenue, indicating aggressive promotional efforts [12]. Store Expansion - Mixue has expanded to 46,500 stores globally, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities, where 51.33% of its stores are located [13][14]. - Gu Ming has established a presence in 17 provinces, with 80% of its stores in second-tier and below cities, indicating a focus on untapped markets [15][16]. - Hu Shang A Yi operates 9,176 stores across various regions, with 50.4% in lower-tier cities, and has begun international expansion [18][19]. - Cha Bai Dao has increased its store count in lower-tier cities, with plans for further expansion and improved logistics [22]. - Bawang Chaji has rapidly expanded to 6,440 stores, with a notable presence in East China, but faces challenges in maintaining growth [23][24]. Franchisee Retention - The article discusses the importance of franchisee retention rates as a measure of brand attractiveness, with Mixue showing a lower franchisee turnover rate compared to its competitors [26][28]. - Mixue's franchisee turnover rate is approximately 6.97%, while Gu Ming, Hu Shang A Yi, and Cha Bai Dao report significantly higher rates of 18.88%, 19.47%, and 20.66%, respectively [28]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the new tea beverage brands are reshaping the industry with a franchise ecosystem that emphasizes supply chain efficiency over traditional rental models [29]. - Mixue stands out for its effective low-cost marketing strategy, while Bawang Chaji's aggressive expansion raises questions about sustainable growth [29].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.55%, down 131 points, closing at 23,695 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.66% [1] - The early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 1,076 million [1] - Robot-related stocks were active, with DCH Holdings (00179) rising nearly 6% and SUTENG (02498) increasing over 2% due to the upcoming CMG World Robot Competition [1] Group 2 - Eucan Vision Bio-B (01477) surged over 18% after OT-703 was approved for real-world research in Boao, Hainan [2] Group 3 - Smoore International (06969) rose over 5% as Glo Hilo is set to launch in Japan, with positive feedback from the trial market for heated non-combustible products [3] - Youjia Innovation (02431) increased over 5% after its L4 autonomous driving minibus received project designation, following a series of product showcases at the Shanghai Auto Show [3] Group 4 - Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) saw a rise of over 7% as the steel industry showed improving performance in Q1, with institutions noting a marginal improvement in the sector's fundamentals [4] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) surged over 15% due to a partnership with NVIDIA for the next-generation 800V power architecture, drawing attention to third-generation semiconductors [4] Group 5 - Gu Ming (01364) increased by 4.5%, reaching a new high, with expectations of being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect next month and a projected net increase of over 2,000 stores for the year [5] Group 6 - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) rose over 7%, with stock prices hitting a new high as institutions are optimistic about the company's valuation recovery potential [6] Group 7 - Gome Retail (06808) saw an early rise of nearly 7%, reporting a turnaround with a profit of RMB 410 million for the year, while Dehong Capital will promote the development of various store formats [7] - New Town Development (01030) fell over 3% amid reports of plans to issue guaranteed bonds domestically, aiming to raise RMB 1.5 to 2 billion [7] - Alibaba Health (00241) dropped over 4%, despite a year-on-year profit increase of over 62%, with analysts stating that profits did not meet expectations [7]