Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, driven by rising aluminum prices and improved sales performance in electrolytic aluminum and alumina products [1][2]. Financial Projections - Projected net profits for China Hongqiao from 2025 to 2027 are 22.759 billion, 26.169 billion, and 28.969 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.73%, 14.98%, and 10.70% respectively [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.45, 2.82, and 3.12 yuan per share for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 6.9, 6.0, and 5.4 times [1]. Profit Growth Drivers - The company's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, reaching around 12.359 billion yuan, following a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2]. - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales volumes and prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average price of electrolytic aluminum rising by 2.51% to 20,297 yuan per ton [2]. Industry Dynamics - The alumina price has significantly decreased in 2025, dropping from 5,683 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 3,175 yuan per ton by June 23, 2025, which may stabilize profits in the alumina segment [3]. - The average profit for alumina in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 302 yuan per ton, a decrease of 430 yuan per ton year-on-year, but the declining trend in alumina prices is expected to slow down [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing its capacity replacement strategy, with the Yunnan Wenshan project having completed an initial capacity of 1.074 million tons per year and a second phase of 950,000 tons nearing completion [4]. - The Yunnan Honghe project, which began construction in August 2023, is planned to have a capacity of 1.93 million tons per year, with an initial production line expected to be completed by the end of June 2025 [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco Great Wall National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159569) has shown a slight decline in its closing price, with a notable increase in both share count and total assets year-to-date [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on August 14, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.08% [1]. - As of June 25, 2024, the fund's share count was 119 million, with a total asset size of 151 million yuan, reflecting a 5.30% increase in shares and a 16.69% increase in assets since the beginning of the year [1]. Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a trading volume of 677 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, averaging 33.86 million yuan per day [1]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Zhang Xiaonan and Gong Lili, with returns of 30.60% and 29.44% respectively since their management began [2]. Top Holdings - The ETF's major holdings include: - Orient Overseas International: 10.26% [3] - Seaspan Corporation: 5.70% [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company: 3.95% [3] - Swire Properties B: 3.88% [3] - CNOOC: 3.78% [3] - China Hongqiao Group: 3.76% [3] - Minsheng Bank: 3.53% [3] - Yuehai Investment: 3.29% [3] - CITIC Bank: 3.28% [3] - Far East Horizon: 3.27% [3]

Market Overview - The overall market is performing well, with the Hang Seng Index rising to nearly 24,200 points, showing increased trading activity with a total turnover of 230 billion [1][3] - Investor sentiment appears optimistic, with expectations of testing the 24,500 level in the short term [1][3] Investment Products - There is a notable flow of funds in the warrants and structured products market, with some investors taking profits from bullish positions while others are starting to deploy bearish positions near the 24,400-24,500 range [3] - Specific products such as put warrants are gaining attention due to their lack of recall risk and potential for leverage, with examples showing leverage of around 10 times [3][4] Stock Performance - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) shares rose by 4%, closing around 414 HKD, with a strong performance in related warrants [7][8] - Xiaomi's stock increased by approximately 3.74%, closing at 56.9 HKD, driven by anticipation of an upcoming product launch [12][16] - China Hongqiao's stock price has risen from 9 HKD to around 17 HKD, with a 35% increase in mid-term profits reported [16][17] - Meituan's stock has been underperforming, with a recent decline of 1%, but there is a flow of funds into bullish warrants as investors see potential at the 130 HKD level [19] - China Life's stock has risen from 13 HKD to around 19 HKD, with some investors starting to deploy bearish positions [23] - BYD's stock is fluctuating between 120-130 HKD, with recent inflows into bullish positions as it shows signs of potential rebound [27][28] Technical Analysis - Support and resistance levels for the Hang Seng Index are identified at 23,634 and 24,474 points respectively [4] - For individual stocks, technical signals indicate a "buy" for China Hongqiao and China Life, while Meituan shows a "sell" signal [19][23] - The leverage ratios for various warrants are highlighted, with some products offering leverage of 4 to 11 times, depending on the underlying stock and expiration dates [9][12][27]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group (01378) has released a positive profit forecast, expecting a net profit increase of approximately 35% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, driven by rising aluminum product prices and increased sales volumes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, China Hongqiao's net profit reached 10.008 billion RMB, representing a significant increase of 236.7% compared to the same period in 2023 [1] - Following the profit announcement, the company's stock price opened high and reached a historical peak of 17.28 HKD, reflecting an increase of 8.68% [1] Group 2: Aluminum Price Trends - As of June 20, the LME aluminum spot price was 2,529 USD/ton, up 44 USD/ton week-on-week, and increased by 84 USD/ton year-on-year, indicating a 3.4% rise [2] - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River region was 20,700 RMB/ton, which is 280 RMB/ton higher than the same period last year, marking a 1.4% increase [2] - The low inventory levels of electrolytic aluminum, at 3.66 days as of June 20, have provided strong support for aluminum prices [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, leading to a lack of supply elasticity, while demand continues to benefit from the rapid development of the new energy sector, creating a long-term mismatch between supply and demand [5] - The price of alumina has shown volatility due to supply disruptions from Guinea and domestic production cuts, with expectations of continued tight supply [6] Group 4: Cost Management - The decline in energy prices, particularly coal, is expected to positively impact China Hongqiao's cost control. The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was 703 RMB/ton in the first five months of this year, down 169 RMB/ton from the average of 872 RMB/ton last year [6] Group 5: Future Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see further profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment due to low inventory levels and favorable cost conditions [7] - The Guinea Simandou iron ore project, in which China Hongqiao has a stake, is set to commence production by the end of this year, potentially contributing significant incremental earnings [7] - Ongoing asset restructuring is anticipated to enhance the company's market influence and investment appeal, with a transaction value of approximately 63.518 billion RMB for acquiring 100% of Hongtu Industrial [7] Group 6: Dividend Policy - China Hongqiao has increased its dividend payouts, with expected distributions of 0.51 HKD, 0.63 HKD, and 1.61 HKD per share for the years 2022-2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities predicts that China Hongqiao (01378) will achieve net profits of 21.7 billion, 23.1 billion, and 25 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.8, 6.4, and 5.9 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The company is expected to achieve significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, benefiting from its undervalued position in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%. This substantial growth is primarily attributed to the rise in sales prices and quantities of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The significant increase in the company's performance is mainly driven by the year-on-year growth in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity prices, leading to lower costs [2]. Group 2: Cost Analysis - As of June 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum price was 20,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while the alumina price was 3,449 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1% [2]. - The self-generated electricity cost in Shandong for the first half of 2025 was 0.34 yuan per kWh, a decrease of 30% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The purchased electricity price in Shandong was 0.62 yuan per kWh, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.1% [2]. Group 3: Capacity Transition - The company is accelerating the capacity transfer project for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan. On March 18, 2025, it shut down the 72.3 million tons original aluminum production line project in Binzhou, replacing it with new capacities of 12.147 million tons and 11.906 million tons [3]. - The C series of the Binzhou Hongnuo project, which had a capacity of 24.1 million tons, has been completely shut down, with all associated equipment dismantled and no longer capable of resuming production [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].

中国宏桥(01378.HK)绩后涨超8%，集团预计2025年上半年净利润同比增加35%左右。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has dropped over 2% [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has seen a decline of nearly 6% [1] - Zhongsheng Holdings, China Hongqiao Group, and Alibaba Health have all decreased by nearly 5% [1]