Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for precious metals, indicating a bullish outlook due to various factors including U.S. tariff policies and inventory dynamics [1][2]. Core Views - The U.S. has announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has led to heightened risk aversion and a significant rise in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices increased by 2.48% and 7.61% respectively compared to the previous week [7][8]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease, while aluminum rod inventory may begin to accumulate due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for silver to benefit from its dual role as an industrial metal in the renewable energy sector and as a financial safe haven [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the U.S. tariff increase has triggered market concerns regarding trade policies for other metals, leading to price increases in precious metals [1][7]. - Copper inventories have shown mixed trends, with SHFE copper inventory at 107,400 tons, up by 1,613 tons week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 17,475 tons to 132,400 tons [2][8]. Precious Metals - The report recommends several companies in the precious metals sector, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold, among others [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for silver prices to rise due to its industrial applications and current market conditions [7][8]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 504,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory saw a slight increase [7][8]. - The report discusses the establishment of a joint venture by Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia for a caustic soda project, which is expected to enhance the company's supply chain resilience [8]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report indicates that tin prices have risen due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin production and a decrease in social inventory, with national tin ingot social inventory at 8,998 tons, down by 257 tons week-on-week [3][8]. - The report recommends companies with growth potential in tin and tungsten sectors, such as Xingye Silver Tin and Zhangyuan Tungsten [8].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and plans to enhance its asset value through a significant acquisition and restructuring strategy [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings, a subsidiary of China Hongqiao, intends to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.518 billion yuan, which will dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [1] - The acquisition targets Hongtuo Industrial, which has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.46 million tons and an approved alumina production capacity of 19 million tons [1] - The restructuring is expected to enhance the company's asset securitization level and market influence, alongside a significant increase in dividend payout ratio to over 60% in 2024 [1] Group 2: Cost Reduction and Production Contributions - The decline in coal prices is expected to lower the company's electricity costs, with the average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port being 703 yuan/ton in the first five months of 2025, down from 872 yuan/ton in 2024 [1] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, in which the company has a stake, is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, contributing significantly to the company's performance [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Profit Forecast - Despite potential short-term demand fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum, the supply side is constrained, and demand from sectors like new energy vehicles remains strong, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [2] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 16.129 billion yuan, 17.751 billion yuan, and 21.285 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 15.37 HKD based on an 8.5x PE valuation for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and has a strong dividend profile, which supports the investment thesis [1][2] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Hongtuo Industrial by the holding company Hongchuang Holdings is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization level [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce costs, while the upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 635.18 billion RMB, which will slightly dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [2] Cost and Production Outlook - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port for the first five months of 2025 was 703 RMB/ton, down from 872 RMB/ton in 2024, which is expected to lower electricity costs in Shandong [3] - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with a designed capacity of 60 million tons per year [3] Aluminum Price and Profitability - Short-term demand for electrolytic aluminum may face seasonal declines, but supply constraints and high demand in sectors like new energy vehicles are expected to keep prices stable [4] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in aluminum prices from 2025 to 2026, with a projected net profit of 161.29 billion RMB in 2025 [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161.29 billion RMB, 177.51 billion RMB, and 212.85 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target price is set at 15.37 HKD, with a historical average PE ratio of 7.03X since 2017 [5][9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown a strong increase of 1.54% as of June 3, 2025, with notable gains in stocks such as China CITIC Bank (00998) up 4.88%, Swire Properties (01972) up 3.94%, and Agricultural Bank of China (01288) up 3.41% [2] - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) has risen by 0.72%, with a latest price of 0.99 yuan and a trading volume of 61.74 million yuan [2] - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has a recent scale of 4.005 billion yuan and has seen a net financing amount of 1.201 million yuan in the previous trading day [3] Group 2 - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has achieved a net value increase of 32.41% over the past two years, ranking 120 out of 2187 in the index stock fund category [4] - The ETF has a maximum monthly return of 24.18% since inception, with an average monthly return of 4.99% [4] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50% and the custody fee is 0.10%, with a tracking error of 0.055% over the past six months [4] Group 3 - As of June 2, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index account for 28.55% of the index, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) and Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings (00008) [5][7] - The weight of the top stock, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, is 4.39%, while the second, Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings, has a weight of 2.66% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream) has shown significant growth, with a 8.71% increase over the past month, 10.63% over the past three months, and a 5.02% increase year-to-date [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Upstream Index is currently reported at 2474.02 points, reflecting a strong upward trend [1]. - The index is based on a sample of securities selected from the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index, representing the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the H300 Upstream Index include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.31%) - PetroChina Company Limited (12.7%) - China Shenhua Energy Company (10.38%) - Zijin Mining Group (9.79%) - Sinopec Limited (9.47%) - China Hongqiao Group (3.57%) - China Coal Energy Company (3.32%) - Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.14%) - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.77%) - Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.28%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the H300 Upstream Index is as follows: - Oil and Gas: 51.89% - Coal: 18.54% - Precious Metals: 14.87% - Industrial Metals: 10.17% - Rare Metals: 2.98% - Oil and Gas Extraction and Field Services: 1.05% - Other Non-ferrous Metals and Alloys: 0.49% [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year. Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao Group is expected to achieve net profits of 20.77 billion yuan, 22.38 billion yuan, and 23.45 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year changes of -7.1%, +7.7%, and +4.8% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Hongqiao Group is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes thermal power, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing [1] - The company has established 13 production bases in Indonesia and various locations in China, with significant production capacities in alumina and electrolytic aluminum [1] - The controlling Zhang family holds 65.53% of the company's equity, and the company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, having distributed a total of 52.49 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing in 2011, with an average dividend payout ratio of 44.3% [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has a leading global position in electrolytic aluminum production, with an average cost of 13,232 yuan per ton in 2024, benefiting from its self-supplied alumina and electricity [2] - The company's energy structure is expected to improve with falling coal prices, and it aims to increase its green aluminum ratio significantly with ongoing projects [2] - China Hongqiao has a self-sufficiency rate of over 160% in alumina production, ensuring stable costs for its aluminum production [2] Group 3: Future Growth Prospects - The company is involved in the development of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its performance significantly once operational [3] - The project has an initial production capacity of 120 million tons of high-quality iron ore per year, with expected contributions to the company's earnings starting in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, focusing on a full industrial chain from power generation to aluminum processing, with a strong emphasis on shareholder returns and sustainable growth [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 1994, the company operates 13 production bases in Indonesia and China, with significant capacities in bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing [1]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the Zhang family holding 65.53% of the equity, and has distributed a total cash dividend of 52.49 billion yuan since its listing in 2011, with an average dividend payout ratio of 44.3% [1]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has a leading position in electrolytic aluminum production, with an average cost of 13,232 yuan per ton in 2024, benefiting from self-supplied bauxite and alumina [1]. - The energy structure is expected to improve with falling coal prices and the completion of renewable energy projects, aiming for a significant increase in green electricity usage [1]. - The company has secured high-quality bauxite and alumina resources, ensuring stable production costs, with a self-sufficiency rate of over 160% for alumina [1]. Group 3: Future Growth and Projects - The company is expanding into high-end low-carbon development with plans for aluminum processing capacity to reach 1.52 million tons, alongside projects in automotive lightweight materials [1]. - The company is involved in the West Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, expected to start production in 2025, which will contribute significantly to future earnings [2]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.77 billion yuan, 22.38 billion yuan, and 23.45 billion yuan, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x PE ratio [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao Group, with a target price of HKD 17.0, based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - China Hongqiao is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a strong focus on integrated operations that create a competitive advantage and a high dividend payout history [8][10]. - The company has a robust supply chain, ensuring stable costs for its electrolytic aluminum segment through ownership of bauxite and alumina resources [2][10]. - The strategic move towards high-end, low-carbon development through recycling and advanced aluminum processing is expected to enhance profitability [2][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Hongqiao operates across the entire aluminum value chain, including power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, with significant production bases in Indonesia and various locations in China [8][16]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the Zhang family controlling approximately 65.53% of the equity [8][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of HKD 156.17 billion for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of HKD 22.37 billion, reflecting a 95.2% increase [4][25]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production is competitive at approximately HKD 13,232 per ton, benefiting from self-sufficient energy and raw material sources [8][10]. Production Capacity and Market Position - China Hongqiao has a total alumina production capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons, making it one of the largest producers globally [8][45]. - The company is actively expanding its recycling capabilities, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 500,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is set to benefit from the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to contribute significantly to its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. - Projections indicate that net profits will reach HKD 20.77 billion, HKD 22.38 billion, and HKD 23.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive integrated business model that includes power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, establishing a strong profit moat [8][10]. - The company has a high dividend payout history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 524.9 billion CNY since its listing in 2011, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][40]. - The company is strategically positioned with a robust supply chain, including self-sufficient alumina production and a high self-supply rate of electricity, which contributes to a competitive cost structure [8][10][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading aluminum producer with a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 646,000 tons as of 2024 [8][45]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Zhang family controlling 65.53% of the equity, ensuring long-term strategic planning [22][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 156.17 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of 22.37 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 95.2% [4][25]. - The company’s operating income has grown from 84.18 billion CNY in 2019 to 133.62 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [25][27]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient alumina production rate exceeding 160%, which stabilizes the cost of aluminum production [2][8]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is projected to be 13,232 CNY per ton, which is among the lowest in the industry [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its footprint in the aluminum recycling and processing sectors, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 50,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. - The company is also involved in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% as of 2024 [46][49]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum sales volume is expected to reach 583.7 million tons in 2025, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [11][55].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market experienced a decline last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.61% and the S&P 500 down by 0.67% [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,601, up 0.2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% to 3,348.37 [3] - The overall market turnover for the day was 203.67 billion [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that China's self-regulatory mechanism has lowered the upper limit for bank deposit rates, with some banks reducing rates by 30 to 40 basis points, indicating regulatory efforts to improve banks' net interest margins [6] - The Hong Kong Insurance Authority is actively communicating with insurance companies interested in relocating their registrations to Hong Kong, aiming to facilitate the migration process under a new framework [7] Group 3: Company-Specific News - UBS has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5,800 to 6,000, citing better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and improved GDP growth expectations as reasons for the adjustment [8] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange plans to increase the position limits for Hang Seng Index derivatives starting July 2, pending regulatory approval, to enhance the development of the derivatives market [10] - Country Garden has reported that over 70% of its public noteholders have joined a restructuring support agreement, extending the deadline for early bird participation [11]