文 ｜ 杨帆 于翔 3月3 0日，建设银行、中国银行、交通银行和邮储银行发布公告，以向特定对象发行A股股票的方 式募资5 2 0 0亿元，其中财政部认购5 0 0 0亿元，募集资金用于补充核心一级资本。至此，以5 0 0 0亿 元特别国债资金补充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本的政策落地。我们认为，为国有大行注资不仅 能够在净息差收窄的背景下未雨绸缪防范风险，而且有利于更好发挥国有大行金融服务实体经济主 力军作用。 ▍ 事件： 3月3 0日，建设银行、中国银行、交通银行和邮储银行发布公告披露向特定对象发行A股股票预 案。具体来看，建设银行拟向财政部募资不超过1 0 5 0亿元；中国银行拟向财政部募资不超过1 6 5 0 亿元；交通银行拟向财政部、中国烟草和双维投资募资不超过1 2 0 0亿元，其中财政部拟认购金额 为11 2 4 . 2亿元；邮储银行拟向财政部、中国移动集团和中国船舶集团募资1 3 0 0亿元，其中财政部 拟认购金额为11 7 5 . 7 9 9 4亿元。募集资金在扣除相关发行费用后将全部用于补充各行的核心一级 资本。 ▍ 以特别国债补充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本是" 9 . 2 4 "以来一揽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The four major state-owned banks in China are conducting a targeted issuance of A-shares to specific investors, primarily to stabilize stock prices and supplement capital, with a total subscription amount of 500 billion yuan from the Ministry of Finance [2][6]. Group 1: Capital Increase and Stability - The targeted issuance aims to balance stock price stability and capital supplementation, with the issuance price set at a premium to protect the interests of existing shareholders [4][6]. - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratios for the four banks are robust, meeting the requirements for globally systemically important banks (GSIB) [2][3]. - The issuance is a response to regulatory support for capital supplementation among major state-owned banks, with thorough communication with stakeholders [2][3]. Group 2: Pricing and Shareholder Interests - The issuance prices for the banks are set at 6.05 yuan, 9.27 yuan, 8.71 yuan, and 6.32 yuan per share, representing a premium over recent market prices [4][5]. - The pricing strategy aims to minimize the dilution of existing shareholders' rights while ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [4][5]. - The banks emphasize that the issuance will enhance their risk resilience and overall financial stability, benefiting all shareholders in the long run [5][6]. Group 3: Focus on Economic Support - The capital increase will enhance the banks' ability to support the real economy, particularly in sectors like technology, small and micro enterprises, green finance, and the elderly care industry [7][8]. - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to leverage the capital, potentially increasing credit availability by approximately 4 trillion yuan [7]. - The banks are committed to optimizing their asset structures and focusing on sustainable growth areas to better serve the economy [8].

Summary of the Conference Call on State-Owned Banks' Capital Injection Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the capital injection plan for state-owned banks in China, specifically focusing on four major banks: China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of China (BOC), Bank of Communications (BoCom), and Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) [2][10]. Key Points and Arguments - **Capital Injection Scale and Structure**: The total capital injection amounts to 520 billion yuan, with the Ministry of Finance contributing 500 billion yuan and other shareholders, including China Tobacco and China Mobile, contributing approximately 20 billion yuan [2][3]. - **Pricing and Premium**: The issuance price is set below one times price-to-book (PB) but above the market price, indicating a premium issuance. The premium rates for each bank vary, with CCB at 8.8%, BOC at 8.3%, BoCom at 21.5%, and PSBC at 17.2% [2][3][7]. - **Core Capital Adequacy Ratios**: Post-injection, the core capital adequacy ratios are projected to be 15% for CCB, 13% for BOC, 11.5% for BoCom, and 11% for PSBC. The dilution ratios are approximately 4.3% for CCB, 8.5% for BOC, 15.6% for BoCom, and 17.2% for PSBC [3][4]. - **Dividend Yields**: After dilution, the dividend yields for A-shares are 4.5% for CCB, 4.4% for BOC, 4.3% for BoCom, and 4.2% for PSBC. The yields for H-shares are higher, with CCB at 6.2%, BOC at 5.2%, BoCom at 5.55%, and PSBC at 4.7% [3][4]. - **Comparison with 1998 Injection**: Unlike the 1998 capital injection aimed at addressing high non-performing loan rates, the current injection focuses on future growth and stability, with the six major banks generating annual profits of 100 to 150 billion yuan and total assets reaching 200 trillion yuan [5]. - **Focus on A-Shares**: The capital injection is primarily concentrated in the A-share market to minimize the impact on the secondary market and leverage the pricing power of A-shares, as well as to simplify the funding process [6]. - **Use of Funds**: The funds will be allocated for traditional lending, bond investments, and potentially increased equity investments, particularly in technology innovation projects [8][9]. - **Impact on Investors**: The capital injection is expected to provide short-term support for earnings per share (EPS) and return on equity (ROE), while enhancing long-term capital strength, profitability stability, and dividend sustainability for investors [11]. - **Support for Technology Enterprises**: The injection may also lead to increased investments in technology-related companies, reflecting the government's emphasis on supporting technological innovation [12]. Other Important Considerations - **Future Capital Injections**: Industrial and Agricultural Bank of China (ICBC) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) are expected to undergo capital injections in a second phase, pending regulatory policies [10]. - **Strategic Arrangements**: CCB has indicated potential strategic arrangements for equity investments to support the development of technology enterprises [8]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the capital injection into state-owned banks, highlighting the implications for the banking sector and investors.

重磅回购也在周末出现。3月28日晚，美的集团披露股份回购计划，拟用50亿元至100亿元回购公司股 份，其中70%及以上将用于注销以减少注册资本，且已取得不超过90亿元的贷款资金银行承诺函。 行业方面亦是利好不断，特别是具身智能机器人等。在电动汽车百人会论坛采访间，长城汽车CTO吴会肖 透露，目前长城已经与宇树科技签订战略协议。合肥设立100亿元未来产业基金推动智能机器人产业发 展。3月30日，中关村战新基金在2025中关村论坛年会上正式发布，规模100亿元，聚焦投资战略新兴产 业和未来产业，培育和服务一批优质企业加速发展。 撬动4万亿信贷增量？ 据交通银行、中国银行、建设银行和邮储银行发布的公告，四家国有大行此次拟发行规模均不超过发行前 总股本的30%，合计募资规模达5200亿元。其中，中国银行、建设银行分别拟发行不超过272.73亿股、 113.27亿股，每股发行价分别为6.05元、9.27元。财政部将分别出资1650亿元、1050亿元认购两家银行 全部新增股份。 对于银行本身而言，有机构认为，邮储2024年末核心一级资本充足率9.56%，建行虽达14.48%，但信贷 扩张压力下需未雨绸缪。注资后邮储普通一 ...

国有大行新一轮注资即将落地！ 交通银行、邮储银行则在引入财政部作为战略投资者之余，同时分别引入多家大型央企投资入股。 据交通银行公告，该行拟发行不超过137.77亿股，发行价为8.71元/股，合计募资规模达1200亿元。其 中，财政部认购金额约1124.2亿元，包括中国烟草、双维投资在内的"烟草系"合计认购75.8亿元。 而早在2012年，"烟草系"即通过参与交通银行定增，完成对该行的入股。至2024年末，"烟草系"合计持 有交通银行3%股份。 邮储银行此次拟发行不超过205.7亿股A股股份，发行价为6.32元/股，合计募资规模达1300亿元。其中， 财政部认购金额约1175.8亿元；中国移动集团、中国船舶集团分别认购75.84亿元、45.66亿元。 3月30日下午，交通银行、中国银行、建设银行和邮储银行齐齐发布公告称，董事会通过了向特定对象发 行A股股票的议案，并对外发布关于财政部战略投资该行的公告。 公告显示，前述四家国有大行拟发行规模均不超过发行前总股本的30%，发行价格均为不低于定价基准日 前20个交易日A股均价的80%。 其中，财政部将以现金方式认购中国银行、建设银行全部新发行股份，并包揽交通银行、 ...

今天银行股微跌0.3%左右，但 邮储银行 一度下跌超3.5%，尾盘拉到跌2.5%附近，但还是排今天的倒数第二；年初至今的跌幅，也是所有银行股 里第三大的。 邮储的情况是比较有代表性的，因为这可能是全中国唯一一家，个人业务占比远超对公的大中型银行——截至24年末，其个贷不良占比超75%，对公不良 占比25%不到。 这更能反映出， 银行业24年的个人不良，应该说这轮是集体爆出来了。 在3月14日的推送（ 链接 ）里，我就提到过，当时市场对两点的炒作过热， 其一是对降准降息的预期，其二是对消费刺激政策 ，尤其是对消费信贷政策 的解读，下图，当时提到，监管消费信贷的政策，首先是"纾困"，解决居民部门资产负债表恶化的问题，其次才是所谓的刺激。 从这回银行披露出来的年报来看， 问题比想象的可能还严重一点。 市场还是在交易年报的数据，昨晚邮储公布了24年的年报，扣非后净利润增速是-0.68%，历史首次负增长，拨备覆盖率大降60%，跌破300% （我个人的标准是，300%是拨备覆盖率的及格线，400%以上是良好，500%以上是牛逼）。 不过，我看了一下，个人觉得年报里最让人诧异的，还是 个人不良贷款 的问题。 邮储总的不良率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The bank reported a revenue of 348.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. The pre-provision profit reached 123 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.24% [1][14] - The bank has proactively adjusted its savings agency fee rates for the first time since its listing, aiming to optimize its liability structure and reduce interest costs. The comprehensive agency fee rate for 2024 decreased from 1.08% to 1.04%, resulting in a reduction of agency fees by 3.5 billion yuan [2][3] - Non-interest income has supported revenue growth, with net interest income increasing by 1.53% year-on-year. The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, down 14 basis points from the previous year. Other non-interest income grew by 15.15%, driven by a 30.89% increase in investment income [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the bank's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.83% and 0.24%, respectively. The growth in revenue was primarily supported by an increase in non-interest income [3][14] - The bank's net interest income rose by 1.53%, while the net interest margin decreased to 1.87%, reflecting a decline in both asset yields and funding costs [3][4] - The bank's total assets and loan amounts reached 17.1 trillion yuan and 8.9 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.64% and 9.38% [13] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.90% at the end of Q4 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 286.15%. The NPL ratio for personal loans was 1.28%, showing a slight increase [11][12] - The bank's credit cost for 2024 was 0.34%, a decrease of 1 basis point year-on-year. The NPL generation rate was 0.84%, down 1 basis point from the previous year [12] Dividend Policy - The bank declared a cash dividend of 2.616 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The bank reported a revenue of 348.8 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. The pre-provision profit reached 123 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.24% [1] - The bank has proactively adjusted its savings agency fee rates for the first time since its listing, aiming to optimize its liability structure and reduce interest costs. The comprehensive agency fee rate for 2024 decreased from 1.08% to 1.04%, resulting in a reduction of agency fees by 3.5 billion yuan [2] - Non-interest income has supported revenue growth, with net interest income increasing by 1.53% year-on-year. The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.87%, down 14 basis points from the previous year. Other non-interest income grew by 15.15%, driven by a 30.89% increase in investment income [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the bank's operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.83% and 0.24%, respectively. The growth in revenue was primarily supported by an increase in non-interest income [3] - The bank's net interest income rose by 1.53%, while the net interest margin decreased to 1.87%. The bank's interest-earning assets and loan yield were 3.32% and 3.78%, respectively [3] - The bank's total assets and loan amounts at the end of Q4 2024 were 17.1 trillion yuan and 8.9 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.64% and 9.38% [13] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q4 2024 was 0.90%, with a provision coverage ratio of 286.15%. The NPL ratio for personal loans was 1.28%, showing a slight increase [11][12] - The bank's credit cost for 2024 was 0.34%, a decrease of 1 basis point year-on-year. The NPL generation rate was 0.84%, down 1 basis point from the previous year [12] Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The bank declared a cash dividend of 2.616 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30% [1] Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue its stable performance, with a focus on increasing its loan-to-deposit ratio and maintaining strong asset quality. The long-term growth potential remains significant as a state-owned bank [13]

Financial Performance - Total assets reached RMB 17.08 trillion, an increase of 8.64% compared to the end of the previous year[32]. - Total customer loans amounted to RMB 8.91 trillion, reflecting a growth of 9.38% year-over-year[32]. - Net profit attributable to bank shareholders was RMB 86.48 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.36%[36]. - Operating income for 2024 is projected to be RMB 349.13 billion, up from RMB 342.91 billion in 2023, indicating a growth of 1.64%[36]. - Customer deposits reached RMB 15.29 trillion, a growth of 9.54% compared to the previous year[32]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved to 14.44%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous year[32]. - The non-performing loan ratio increased to 0.90%, compared to 0.83% in the previous year[42]. - The net interest margin decreased to 1.87%, down from 2.01% in 2023[40]. - The cost-to-income ratio was reported at 64.01%, slightly improved from 64.87% in 2023[40]. - The bank's cash flow from operating activities was RMB 397.28 billion, significantly higher than RMB 263.34 billion in 2023[36]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The balance of agricultural loans amounted to RMB 2.29 trillion, while the balance of inclusive micro-enterprise loans was RMB 1.63 trillion[3]. - The balance of green loans reached RMB 781.732 billion, an increase of 22.55% compared to the end of the previous year[3]. - Total liabilities amounted to CNY 16.05 trillion, reflecting an 8.69% growth year-over-year[61]. - Individual deposits were RMB 13,628.54 billion, increasing by RMB 11,336.82 billion or 9.07%, driven by the bank's focus on high-quality deposit development[160]. - Company deposits rose to RMB 1,656.25 billion, a growth of RMB 1,978.10 billion or 13.56%, reflecting enhanced comprehensive financial service capabilities[160]. Customer Base and Services - The number of personal mobile banking customers reached 378 million, with monthly active users of mobile banking at 81.84 million[3]. - The bank served over 280 million elderly customers, with financial social security cards exceeding 120 million in circulation[3]. - The bank has nearly 40,000 operating outlets and serves over 670 million individual customers[16]. - The bank's electronic payment transaction scale was CNY 7.03 trillion during the reporting period[182]. - The bank's personal international settlement business recorded 160,400 transactions, with a total transaction amount of USD 362 million[181]. Digital Transformation and Innovation - The bank is accelerating its digital transformation, integrating business technology to create an open, shared, and intelligent operational support capability[21]. - The bank is actively advancing AI innovation applications to deepen the integration of financial services and technology[12]. - The company launched a new generation of corporate and credit card core systems, winning first-class awards in financial technology development for two consecutive years[62]. - The bank's electronic payment services have been enhanced through the launch of the "Smart Cube Customer Operation Platform" for precise marketing[182]. - The bank has implemented a digital banking section specifically for private banking clients, improving service accessibility and experience[186]. Risk Management and Compliance - The bank maintains a prudent risk management system, emphasizing comprehensive risk management capabilities[18]. - The bank's commitment to compliance and risk management ensured the quality of liability business development remained stable[157]. - The company aims to enhance its risk management framework and utilize big data and AI for better risk monitoring and control[65]. - The proactive credit granting model has been recognized with the People's Bank of China "Financial Technology Development Award" first prize[200]. Strategic Focus and Development - The bank's strategic focus includes technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance to enhance overall competitiveness[20]. - The bank is focusing on high-quality development by upgrading its core systems and optimizing personnel configuration[12]. - The company aims to enhance its market positioning by focusing on differentiated growth in the financial market and actively adjusting investment strategies[112]. - The bank is committed to a long-term strategy, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development and risk management in a low-interest-rate environment[67]. - The outlook for 2025 indicates a continued focus on high-quality development and support for key areas such as new urbanization and rural revitalization[74]. Awards and Recognition - The company received multiple awards, including the Financial Technology Development Award (First Class) from the People's Bank of China and recognition as an excellent service case at the National Specialized and Innovative Conference[30]. - The company ranked 106th in the Brand Finance 2024 Global Banking 1000 and 12th in The Banker 2024 Global Most Valuable Brands by tier 1 capital[29]. Pension and Elderly Services - The bank has implemented a comprehensive promotion of the personal pension system, enhancing its service offerings[3]. - The establishment of 21 "Golden Sunshine Stations" in Beijing to provide comprehensive services for the elderly, addressing health, safety, learning, and asset planning needs[194]. - The active promotion of the "U Enjoy Future" personal pension service brand, enhancing the management of personal pension accounts throughout their lifecycle[193]. - The company has integrated a three-dimensional pension financial system focusing on pension finance, pension service finance, and pension industry finance[193].

Dividends and Financial Performance - The proposed cash dividend for the fiscal year 2024 is RMB 1.139 per 10 shares, totaling approximately RMB 11.294 billion (including tax) for the final dividend[4] - The total cash dividends for the year 2024 amount to RMB 25.941 billion (including tax), with RMB 2.616 per 10 shares distributed[4] - Operating income for 2023 was RMB 342.91 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.81%[37] - Net profit attributable to bank shareholders was RMB 86.48 billion, slightly up from RMB 86.27 billion in the previous year[42] - The capital adequacy ratio improved to 14.44%, up 0.21 percentage points from the previous year[38] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.90%, an increase from 0.83% in the previous year[48] - The net interest margin decreased to 1.87%, down from 2.01% in the previous year[46] - The bank's cash flow from operating activities was RMB 397.28 billion, significantly higher than RMB 263.34 billion in the previous year[42] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was RMB 25,926 million, showing a solid performance[54] - Net profit reached CNY 86.72 billion, a slight increase of 0.34% year-over-year[85] Risk Management and Financial Stability - The bank has not identified any significant risks that could adversely affect its future development strategy and operational goals[5] - The bank maintains a prudent risk management system, enhancing its risk-leading capabilities[18] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio and provision coverage ratio remain at industry-leading levels, indicating strong asset quality[56] - The maximum single customer loan ratio was 7.98%, down from 13.34% in 2023, indicating improved risk management[50] - The bank aims to enhance its risk management framework, focusing on comprehensive risk control across all areas[62] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to be 0.90% for 2024, with an NPL generation rate of 0.84%, maintaining excellent asset quality[71] Technology and Digital Transformation - The bank is actively advancing its technology-driven financial services, focusing on AI innovation applications to enhance integration with financial market operations[12] - The bank is accelerating its digital transformation, integrating business technology to create an open, shared, and intelligent business support capability[21] - The bank plans to accelerate its digital transformation, investing in technology to improve operational efficiency and service capabilities[61] - The bank's digital financial services received high satisfaction ratings, with mobile banking and online banking ranking first in industry assessments[68] Customer Service and Market Position - The bank has nearly 40,000 operating outlets and serves over 670 million individual customers[16] - The bank aims to enhance its service capabilities for inclusive finance, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises' daily operational financial needs[21] - The bank aims to enhance its service capabilities by implementing a customer-centric approach and expanding its product offerings[59] - The company aims to build a first-class large retail bank characterized by customer trust, distinctive features, stability, safety, innovation, and exceptional value[22] Financial Growth and Assets - Total assets reached RMB 17.08 trillion, an increase of 8.64% compared to the end of the previous year[32] - Total liabilities amounted to RMB 16.05 trillion, reflecting a growth of 8.69% year-over-year[33] - Customer loans totaled RMB 8.91 trillion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.54%[35] - Customer deposits increased to RMB 15.29 trillion, marking a growth of 9.54% compared to the previous year[36] - The total Assets Under Management (AUM) reached RMB 16.69 trillion, with 富嘉 and 鼎福 customer growth of 17.60% and 26.91% respectively[70] Strategic Focus and Development Goals - The bank's strategic focus includes technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance[20] - The strategic goal is to empower high-quality development through financial technology, accelerate business model transformation, and enhance value creation capabilities[23] - The bank plans to focus on technology finance, inclusive finance, and green finance to meet evolving market demands[58] - The bank aims to support the high-quality development of industrial clusters and high-tech parks through its financial services[12] Awards and Recognition - The company ranked 106th in the Brand Finance 2024 Global Banking 1000 and 12th in The Banker 2024 Global Most Valuable Brands by tier 1 capital[29] - The company has received multiple awards, including the Financial Technology Development Award (First Class) from the People's Bank of China and recognition as an excellent service case at the National Specialized and Innovative Conference[30] Retirement and Pension Services - The company launched a series of innovative retirement financial products, including retirement benefit calculators and family retirement accounts, enhancing the overall retirement service ecosystem[194] - The active promotion of the "U Enjoy Future" personal pension service brand has led to rapid growth in personal pension account management[199] - The company has developed a three-dimensional retirement financial system, focusing on retirement savings, service, and industry finance[199] - The company actively served over 280 million clients aged 55 and above, with more than 120 million financial social security cards in circulation[198]