Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 59.723 billion, a decrease of 4.09% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8.576 billion, down 14.14% year-on-year, primarily due to increased market-based electricity sales and declining electricity prices [9][11]. - The total electricity generation from the company's operational nuclear units reached 182.822 billion kWh, an increase of 2.67% year-on-year, with grid electricity sales at 172.179 billion kWh, up 3.17% year-on-year [9][11]. - The cancellation of the variable cost compensation for nuclear power in Guangdong is expected to lead to a rebound in electricity prices, with an estimated increase of approximately CNY 0.04/kWh in market-based prices starting in 2026 [2][17]. - The adjustment of the value-added tax policy for nuclear power is not expected to have a significant impact on profitability in the short term [3][19]. - The completion of the asset injection of Huizhou Nuclear Power is a significant development, with the company acquiring 82% of Huizhou Nuclear Power and 100% of its subsidiaries [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 20.556 billion, a decrease of 10.21% year-on-year but an increase of 7.40% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was CNY 2.624 billion, down 8.81% year-on-year and down 10.32% quarter-on-quarter [9][11]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.5%, a decrease of 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.58%, down 3.31 percentage points year-on-year [11][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 9.41 billion, CNY 10.75 billion, and CNY 11.73 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13%, 14%, and 9% [20][22]. - The company is managing 28 operational units with a total installed capacity of 31.796 million kW and has 20 units under construction, representing 44.46% of the national total capacity [16][22]. Market Conditions - The market-based electricity price in Guangdong is expected to rebound due to the cancellation of the variable cost compensation mechanism, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance in 2026 [2][17]. - The company’s stock is currently priced at CNY 4.01, with a market capitalization of CNY 202.499 billion [6][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the nuclear power sector due to price and volume pressures. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 59.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.576 billion yuan, down 14.14% year-on-year - In Q3 2025, revenue was 20.556 billion yuan, a decline of 10.21% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.624 billion yuan, down 8.81% year-on-year [1][2] Operational Challenges - The total nuclear power generation for the first three quarters of 2025 was 172.179 billion kWh, an increase of 3.17% year-on-year, but Q3 generation was 58.819 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year - The average nuclear power generation price in Q3 2025 is estimated to have decreased by approximately 1.2 cents per kWh, contributing to revenue decline - Operating costs in Q3 2025 decreased by 6.47% year-on-year, while sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses varied, with significant reductions in sales and R&D costs [2] Growth Prospects - As of September 30, 2025, the company has 20 nuclear power units under construction, with several expected to be operational between 2025 and 2028, indicating substantial long-term growth potential - The cancellation of the variable cost compensation mechanism for Guangdong nuclear power units starting in 2026 is expected to enhance profitability for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.450 billion yuan, 9.785 billion yuan, and 10.561 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.62%, +3.54%, and +7.94% - The price-to-earnings ratio for the company's stock as of November 3, 2025, is estimated to be 21.43, 20.70, and 19.17 for the respective years [4]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power (01816.HK) has seen an increase in shareholding by CITIC Securities - Kaiyuan Single Asset Management Plan, which raised its stake from 11.99% to 12.14% by acquiring 16.16 million shares at an average price of HKD 3.0868 per share, totaling approximately HKD 49.88 million [1]. Summary by Category - **Shareholding Increase** - CITIC Securities - Kaiyuan Single Asset Management Plan acquired 16.16 million shares of China General Nuclear Power [1]. - The average purchase price was HKD 3.0868 per share [1]. - Post-acquisition, the total number of shares held by CITIC Securities - Kaiyuan is 1,355,560,000, representing a 12.14% stake [1]. - **Financial Implications** - The total investment for the share acquisition was approximately HKD 49.88 million [1].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has increased its stake in China General Nuclear Power (01816) by acquiring 16.16 million shares at a price of HKD 3.0868 per share, totaling approximately HKD 49.88 million, raising its ownership to about 1.3556 billion shares, which represents 12.14% of the company [1] Summary by Category - **Share Acquisition** - CITIC Securities acquired 16.16 million shares of China General Nuclear Power at HKD 3.0868 per share [1] - The total investment for this acquisition was approximately HKD 49.88 million [1] - **Ownership Structure** - Following the acquisition, CITIC Securities' total shareholding in China General Nuclear Power is approximately 1.3556 billion shares [1] - This represents a holding percentage of 12.14% in the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities-Kaiyuan Single Asset Management Plan has increased its stake in China General Nuclear Power (01816) by acquiring 16.16 million shares at a price of HKD 3.0868 per share, totaling approximately HKD 49.88269 million, resulting in a new holding of about 1.3556 billion shares, representing 12.14% ownership [1] Summary by Category - **Share Acquisition** - CITIC Securities-Kaiyuan has purchased 16.16 million shares of China General Nuclear Power [1] - The acquisition price was HKD 3.0868 per share, leading to a total investment of approximately HKD 49.88269 million [1] - **Ownership Structure** - Following the acquisition, CITIC Securities-Kaiyuan's total shareholding in China General Nuclear Power is approximately 1.3556 billion shares [1] - This represents a 12.14% ownership stake in the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in renewable energy and natural gas consumption [4][8]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading prices in Q3 compared to Q1. The total issuance of green power certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable [7][8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price reaching a six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [9][11]. - The report anticipates an increase in natural gas consumption in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and expected higher heating demand from a potential La Niña phenomenon [30][31]. Summary by Sections Electricity - The average trading price of green certificates increased by 210% in Q3 compared to Q1. The issuance of green certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable, indicating a robust market growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for further development of the green certificate market and the introduction of regulations to enhance renewable energy consumption [4][7]. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price was $3.57/mmBtu, marking an 11.16% increase week-on-week. In contrast, European gas prices showed a decline, with the TTF spot price at €30.35/MWh, down 5.42% [9][10]. - The report notes a decrease in China's apparent natural gas consumption in September 2025, but anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and increased heating demand [30][31]. - The LNG national ex-factory price in China rose to 4407 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.11% increase week-on-week, driven by rising demand ahead of the heating season [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market conditions: - Hydropower: Focus on Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to favorable hydrological conditions [8]. - Green Power: Attention to New Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power for their stable returns [8]. - Nuclear Power: Recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power due to ongoing approvals for new units [8]. - Thermal Power: Companies like Guodian Power and Huadian International are highlighted for improved profitability due to falling coal prices [8]. - Gas Power: Recommendations for Guangzhou Development and Shenzhen Energy based on expected stability in profitability [8].

Summary of CGN Power Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CGN Power Co., Ltd (1816.HK) - **Industry**: China Utilities - **Market Cap**: Rmb152,398.1 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$3.17 - **Price Target**: HK$2.81 - **52-Week Range**: HK$3.30 - HK$2.31 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Recurring Net Profit**: Down 8% YoY to Rmb2.57 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of Rmb2.6 billion [2][7] - **Total Gross Profit**: Decreased by 18% YoY in 3Q25, continuing the trend from 1H25 [2] - **Unit Gross Profit**: Rmb0.132/kWh in 3Q25, down 15% YoY [2] - **Revenue**: Rmb20.56 billion in 3Q25, a 7% QoQ increase but a 10% YoY decline [8] - **Net Profit**: Rmb2.624 billion in 3Q25, down 10% YoY [8] Tariff Policy Changes - **Guangdong 2026 Power Tariff Policy**: The variable cost compensation mechanism has been cancelled, which is expected to lead to a rebound in nuclear power market tariffs in Guangdong [3][7] - **Impact of Tariff Changes**: The cancellation of a ~4 cent discount is anticipated to positively affect CGN Power's tariff structure [3] Market Outlook - **Earnings Trend**: The company expects the trend of declining core earnings to continue into 4Q25, influenced by a relatively low base in 2H24 [7] - **Analyst Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on CGN Power, with an attractive industry view [5] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Include higher-than-expected utilization, upward adjustments of on-grid tariffs, and new project approvals [11] - **Downside Risks**: Include lower-than-expected utilization, downward adjustments of on-grid tariffs, and delays in new project commissioning [11] Valuation Methodology - **P/E Multiple**: A P/E multiple of 13x is applied to the 2025E EPS, with expectations of accelerating trends in new projects compared to previous years [9] Additional Insights - **Gross Margin**: Decreased to 29.8% in 3Q25, down 2.8 percentage points YoY [8] - **Effective Tax Rate**: Increased to 18.1% in 3Q25, up 0.5 percentage points YoY [8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding CGN Power Co., Ltd, highlighting financial performance, tariff policy changes, market outlook, and associated risks.

Group 1 - The company has completed the acquisition of stakes in four nuclear power companies, including 82% of China Guangdong Nuclear Power Huizhou Co., Ltd. and 100% of three other subsidiaries [1][2] - The transaction was approved during the company's shareholder meetings held on October 16, 2025, and the payment for the acquisition was completed by October 31, 2025 [1][2] - Following the completion of the transaction, the acquired companies have become subsidiaries of the company [2]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has completed the payment for acquiring an 82% stake in China General Nuclear Huizhou Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. and 100% stakes in China General Nuclear Huizhou Second Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., China General Nuclear Huizhou Third Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., and China General Nuclear Zhanjiang Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. The related companies will become subsidiaries of CGN by October 31, 2025 [1] Group 1 - CGN has finalized the acquisition of significant stakes in multiple nuclear power companies [1] - The transaction enhances CGN's position in the nuclear power sector in China [1] - The acquired companies are set to be integrated into CGN's operations by the end of October 2025 [1]

| 证券代码：003816 | 证券简称：中国广核 | 公告编号：2025-073 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127110 | 债券简称：广核转债 | | 中国广核电力股份有限公司 关于收购惠州核电等四家公司股权暨关联交易的进展公告 公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、关联交易概述 1.中国广核电力股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2025 年 10 月 16 日召开 2025 年第一次临时股东大会、2025 年第二次 A 股类别股东大会、2025 年第二次 H 股类别股东大会，审议通过《关于收购惠州公司等四家公司股权的议案》， 本公司向中国广核集团有限公司收购其持有的中广核惠州核电有限公司 82%股权、 中广核惠州第二核电有限公司 100%股权、中广核惠州第三核电有限公司 100%股权、 中广核湛江核电有限公司 100%股权（以下简称"本次交易"），交割日为关于本次交 易对价支付完成日所在日历月的最后一个日历日。 详情请见本公司于 2025 年 8 月 27 日和 2025 年 10 月 16 日 ...