Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888)(01880) saw a nearly 4% increase in stock price, currently at 84 HKD, with a trading volume of 50.17 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment driven by tourism growth in Hainan [1] Group 1: Tourism Market Performance - During the New Year's holiday in 2026, Hainan's tourism market experienced a strong start, with 2.1716 million visitors, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [1] - The total tourism revenue reached 3.136 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.9%, with revenue growth outpacing visitor growth by 3.7 percentage points, indicating an ongoing optimization of consumption structure [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Guoyuan International's report highlights that the benefits of the closure policy and diversified product offerings will drive Hainan's tourism market into a new phase of high-quality development [1] - Morgan Stanley's report expresses a positive outlook for Hainan's tourism retail sector, citing factors such as gradual macroeconomic recovery, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that by Q4 2025, China Duty Free Group's revenue, operating profit, and net profit will grow by 19%, 92%, and 135% year-on-year, respectively, although it anticipates a 1% and 9% decline in annual revenue and profit for the full year [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, Morgan Stanley expects Hainan's duty-free market to grow by 25% to 30%, which will drive a 44% increase in profitability for China Duty Free Group [1]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector experienced a decline of 0.49% on January 8, with China Duty Free Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock closed at 92.95, reflecting a decrease of 0.49% [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net outflow of 409 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 170 million yuan [1] - The net inflow from speculative funds was 239 million yuan, accounting for 4.46% of the total [1] - The overall fund flow data indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor categories within the tourism retail sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China Duty Free Group has secured the operation rights for the T3 duty-free store at Beijing Capital International Airport, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [1] - The overall operating area at the airport has decreased compared to the previous round due to bidding requirements, but the company's performance is expected to benefit [1] - T3 handles over 80% of international passengers at the airport, and despite a reduction in revenue scale, the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase [1] Group 2 - The company's operational status is expected to continue improving against the backdrop of a recovery in offshore duty-free sales and the ongoing restoration of inbound and outbound travel by 2026 [1] - Long-term support for policies regarding Hainan, port, and city duty-free stores is anticipated to open up long-term development opportunities for the company [1] - Due to the recovery in offshore duty-free sales and the restoration of inbound and outbound travel, profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been revised upward, and the rating has been upgraded to "Buy" [1]

| 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 中国中免 | 2.69ZZ | 4.17% | -4535.23万 | -0.70% | -2.24亿 | -3.47% | 证券之星消息，1月7日旅游零售板块较上一交易日上涨3.11%，中国中免领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4085.77，上涨0.05%。深证成指报收于14030.56，上涨0.06%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 | 中国中免 | 93.41 | 3.11% | | 69.22万 | | 64.54亿 | 从资金流向上来看，当日旅游零售板块主力资金净流入2.69亿元，游资资金净流出4535.23万元，散户资 金净流出2.24亿元。旅游零售板块个股资金流向见下表： 以 ...

群益证券(香港)研报指出，中国中免获首都机场T3免税店经营权，元旦离岛免税开门红。受招标要求限 制，公司在首都机场整体经营面积较上一轮缩小，但业绩层面存在一定利好。T3承担首都机场逾80%的 国际旅客，上一轮中，中免经营T2、日上（中国）经营T3，考虑客流和持股情况（中免持股有日上中 国51%股权），本轮招标执行后，尽管收入规模收缩，但归母利润规模将有增加。预计2026年在离岛免 税复苏和出入境持续修复下，公司经营面将延续改善，从长期看，不管是海南还是口岸、市内免税店， 政策支持力度均在加码，进一步打开公司长期发展空间。考虑离岛免税回暖和出入境修复，上调2026- 2027年盈利预测，上调至"买进"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Morgan Stanley forecasts a 25% to 30% year-on-year growth in Hainan's duty-free market by 2026, which will drive a 44% profit increase for China Duty Free Group (601888) [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group from 60 HKD to 89 HKD, while maintaining a "market perform" rating, suggesting investors wait for a better entry point [1] - The positive outlook for Hainan's tourism retail sector is supported by factors such as gradual macroeconomic recovery, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts that China Duty Free Group's revenue, operating profit, and net profit for the fourth quarter of last year will increase by 19%, 92%, and 135% year-on-year, respectively [1] - However, the expectation for the full year indicates a decline in revenue and profit by 1% and 9% year-on-year, respectively [1]

该行表示对海南旅游零售业前景持正面看法，支持因素包括宏观经济正逐步复苏、积极的财富效应、销 售商品种类扩张及政策支持等，目前预测中国中免去年第四季收入、经营利润及净利润将分别同比增长 19%、92%及135%，但预期全年收入及盈利将同比下跌1%及9%。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计2026年海南免税市场将同比增长25%至30%，推动中 国中免(01880)盈利增长44%。该行指出，中免H股现价对应2026年预测市盈率约26倍，经历近期升浪后 估值水平似乎合理，建议投资者等待更佳时机入市，给予"与大市同步"评级，目标价由60港元上调至89 港元。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley expresses a positive outlook on the Hainan tourism retail industry, supported by macroeconomic recovery, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support [1] - The forecast for China Duty Free Group's Q4 revenue, operating profit, and net profit is expected to grow by 19%, 92%, and 135% year-on-year, respectively, while the full-year revenue and profit are anticipated to decline by 1% and 9% year-on-year [1] - By 2026, the Hainan duty-free market is projected to grow by 25% to 30% year-on-year, driving a 44% increase in China Duty Free Group's profits [1] Group 2 - The current price of China Duty Free Group's H-shares corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 26 times for 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation level after recent gains [1] - Investors are advised to wait for a better entry point, with a rating of "in line with the market" and a target price raised from 60 HKD to 89 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) saw a significant stock increase of over 7%, with a current price of 83.7 HKD and a trading volume of 185 million HKD, driven by strong sales growth in Hainan's duty-free market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales from January 1 to 3 increased by 129% year-on-year to 712 million CNY, with the number of shoppers rising by 61% [1] - The average duty-free spending per person reached 8,527 CNY, marking a 42.5% year-on-year increase, while the quantity of purchased items grew by 52.4% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The robust sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in Hainan since October of the previous year, which has boosted shopper traffic [1] - Increased average spending is primarily driven by luxury categories such as clothing, footwear, handbags, jewelry, and mobile products, alongside ongoing government subsidies for duty-free shopping [1] Group 3: Analyst Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices of 99.59 CNY and 90.73 HKD respectively, with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw a significant stock increase of over 7%, with a current price of 83.7 HKD and a trading volume of 185 million HKD, driven by strong sales growth in Hainan's duty-free market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales from January 1 to 3 increased by 129% year-on-year to 712 million CNY, with the number of shoppers rising by 61% [1] - The estimated per capita duty-free spending reached 8,527 CNY, marking a 42.5% year-on-year increase, while the quantity of purchased items grew by 52.4% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The robust sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in Hainan since October of the previous year, which boosted shopper traffic [1] - The increase in per capita spending is primarily driven by luxury categories such as clothing, footwear, handbags, jewelry, and mobile products [1] - Local government continues to provide subsidies for duty-free shopping, further supporting sales growth [1] Group 3: Analyst Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices of 99.59 CNY and 90.73 HKD respectively, with a "Buy" rating [1]