作为海南免税市场最大份额的龙头运营商，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称：中国中免，股 票代码：601888.SH）2026年首个交易日却未承接到元旦假期免税消费的红利。 截至1月5日收盘，中国中免报90.29元/股，日跌4.52%，市值约1868亿元。不过，时间拉长 来看，自2025年12月18日以来，中国中免股价已上浮近20%。在12月31日盘中，该股一度冲 至95.66元/股，创下2023年11月以来的新高。 不过，作为"免税茅"，当下的中国中免与高峰时期仍相距甚远。 2020年6月，中共中央、国务院发布《海南自由贸易港建设总体方案》。当年，中国中免的股价也进入 疯狂的上行通道，仅2020年6月，股价就上涨超50%，并首次突破百元大关，随后股价更接连冲破200元 和300元，顶峰时刻的市值一度超过8000亿元。 封关后的第一个小长假，海南免税销售再度起飞，但中国中免还没缓过来。 2026年元旦假期，海南迎来离岛免税消费热潮。海口海关1月4日公布统计数据，2026年1月1日~3日， 海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售44.2万件，同比增长52.4%；购物人数8.35万人次，同比增长60.6%； 购物金额7 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日旅游零售板块主力资金净流出2.91亿元，游资资金净流入7585.11万元，散户资 金净流入2.15亿元。旅游零售板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 中国中免 | -2.9117 -5.59% | 7585.11万 | 1.46% | 2.15(Z | 4.13% | | WILL - A TT WILL CLASS | | | | | | 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，1月6日旅游零售板块较上一交易日上涨0.33%，中国中免领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4083.67，上涨1.5%。深证成指报收于14022.55，上涨1.4%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (601888) shares rose over 3% in late trading, currently up 2.42% at HKD 78.45, with a trading volume of HKD 333 million [1] - According to Guoyuan International's report, the tourism market in Hainan welcomed a strong start during the New Year holiday, with 2.1716 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and total tourism revenue reaching CNY 3.136 billion, up 28.9% year-on-year, indicating an improvement in consumer spending structure [1] - UBS reported that from January 1 to 3, Hainan's duty-free sales surged 129% year-on-year to CNY 712 million, with the number of duty-free shoppers increasing by 61%, reflecting the positive impact of relaxed shopping policy for local residents and outbound travelers [1] Group 2 - The average duty-free spending per person in Hainan was estimated at CNY 8,527, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%, with the quantity of purchased items also rising by 52.4%, all exceeding market expectations [1] - The strong sales growth is attributed to the policy changes implemented in October of the previous year, which facilitated increased shopping traffic in Hainan's duty-free stores [1]

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) shares rose over 3% and were trading at 78.45 HKD with a transaction volume of 333 million HKD [1] - The tourism market in Hainan experienced a strong start during the New Year holiday, with 2.1716 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [1] - Total tourism revenue reached 3.136 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9%, indicating an improvement in consumer spending patterns [1] Group 2 - Duty-free sales in Hainan from January 1 to 3 saw a significant increase of 129% to 712 million CNY, with the number of shoppers rising by 61% year-on-year [1] - The estimated per capita duty-free spending was 8,527 CNY, up 42.5% compared to the previous year, with the quantity of purchased items increasing by 52.4% [1] - The strong sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in October of the previous year, which boosted shopper traffic [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hainan's duty-free sales from January 1 to 3 increased by 129% year-on-year to 712 million yuan, with the number of duty-free shoppers rising by 61% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Duty-free sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in Hainan since October last year [1] - The average duty-free spending per person is estimated at 8,527 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [1] - The quantity of purchased items also saw a year-on-year growth of 52.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [1] Group 2: Product Categories and Government Support - The increase in average spending is driven by luxury categories such as clothing, footwear, handbags, jewelry, and mobile phones [1] - Local government continues to provide subsidies for duty-free shopping, further stimulating consumer spending [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - UBS maintains a positive outlook on China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices at 99.59 yuan and 90.73 Hong Kong dollars, respectively, with a "buy" rating [1] - The firm is also optimistic about Shanghai Airport, as new contracts may lead the company back to a high growth trajectory, with no significant capital expenditures expected, which could improve return on equity [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has secured the operating rights for the T3 duty-free store at Beijing Capital Airport, which is expected to enhance profitability despite a reduction in operational area compared to the previous round [7][10]. - The first-year guaranteed fee for the duty-free store is approximately 480 million RMB, with a sales commission starting at 5% and increasing by 1% annually after the first year [7][10]. - The company anticipates a long-term positive impact on profits due to the high volume of international travelers at T3, which accounts for over 80% of the airport's international passenger traffic [10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in duty-free sales in Hainan, with a 14.9% year-on-year growth in sales from September to November, and a 54.9% increase in the first week of the Hainan closure [10]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 3.72 billion, 4.55 billion, and 5.17 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a recovery in duty-free sales and inbound/outbound travel [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The company operates in the leisure services industry, with a current A-share price of 90.29 RMB and a market capitalization of approximately 176.29 billion RMB [2]. - Major shareholder is China Tourism Group, holding 50.30% of the shares [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has had a series of ratings, with the most recent being "Buy" on December 18, 2025, following a series of "Trading Buy" ratings earlier in the year [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 5.03 billion RMB in 2022, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 showing a recovery trend in profitability [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.80 RMB in 2025 to 2.50 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 50, 41, and 36 [12]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of international travel and duty-free shopping, with supportive policies expected to enhance long-term growth prospects [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price adjustments made by brokerages for listed companies, with significant increases noted for certain firms [1] - The companies with the highest target price increases include Anhui Construction, China Duty Free Group, and Yaxing Anchor Chain, with target price increases of 50.75%, 25.15%, and 23.22% respectively, indicating strong performance expectations in the infrastructure, tourism retail, and marine equipment sectors [1] - On the downside, only one company, Jujie Microfiber, had its rating downgraded by CITIC Securities from "Buy" to "Hold," reflecting a cautious outlook for this particular firm [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the full closure of Hainan, the cultural and tourism market is experiencing explosive growth characterized by "duty-free consumption explosion, surge in inbound tourist flow, and upgrade in tourism transportation" [1] - The report suggests focusing on stocks related to leading duty-free operators, tourism transportation hubs, and local cultural tourism operators in Hainan, specifically mentioning China Duty Free Group (01880) and Meilan Airport (00357) [1] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday, domestic travel in China reached 142 million trips with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, while Hainan welcomed 2.1716 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and total tourism revenue of 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [2] - The inbound tourism market in Hainan saw a "explosive growth" with a fivefold increase in ticket orders for Sanya and nearly threefold for Haikou, with Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia being the main sources of inbound tourists [2][3] - The duty-free sales during the New Year holiday reached 712 million yuan, a staggering increase of 128.9%, with the average spending per customer rising to 8,527 yuan, indicating strong consumer enthusiasm driven by policy optimization and promotional activities [3]

国元国际主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，国元国际发布研报称，海南全岛封关后，文旅市场呈现"免税消费爆发+入境客流激 增+旅游交通升级"的爆发式增长态势，直接利好离岛免税龙头、旅游交通枢纽、海南本地文旅运营商 三类股票标的，建议关注注中国中免(01880)与美兰空港(00357)。 文旅部数据显示，元旦假期全国国内出游1.42亿人次，总花费847.89亿元 国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量4271.82万人次。短途出游成为主流，城市本地休 闲、近程旅游和周边游热度高。值得注意的是，元旦期间海南全省接待游客217.16万人次，与2025年同 比增长25.2%；旅游总花费31.36亿元，同比增长28.9%。随着海南国际航线网络持续加密，覆盖亚欧多 个重点区域，叠加多平台涉外营销推广，元旦入境旅游市场实现"爆发式增长"。1月1日数据显示，三亚 入境游机票订单量同比增幅达5倍，海口增长近3倍，增速位列全国前两位。马来西亚、泰国、韩国、越 南、澳大利亚成为主要入境客源地，国际游客的持续涌入丰富了海南旅游客源结构。同时受到受海南自 贸港封关政策预期带动，"购物+度假"成主流模式，中海旅免税城周边酒店入住率同 ...

Group 1 - The tourism market in Hainan is experiencing explosive growth following the island's closure policy, characterized by a surge in duty-free consumption, increased inbound tourist flow, and upgrades in travel transportation [1][3] - During the New Year holiday, Hainan received 2.1716 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with total tourism revenue reaching 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [2][3] - The duty-free sales during the New Year holiday reached 712 million yuan, a staggering increase of 128.9% year-on-year, with the average spending per customer rising to 8,527 yuan [3] Group 2 - The inbound tourism market saw a fivefold increase in ticket orders for Sanya and nearly threefold for Haikou, ranking them as the top two cities in the country for growth [2][3] - The average occupancy rate of operating accommodation units in Hainan reached 79.01%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the tourism sector [2][3] - The expansion of international flight networks and the optimization of duty-free policies are expected to drive high-quality development in Hainan's tourism market [3]