Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) is maintained as "Buy" [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the sales in Hainan's duty-free market are stabilizing and recovering, with policy benefits optimizing the business environment [6]. - Despite short-term profit pressures, the core business in Hainan shows signs of recovery, with monthly sales returning to positive growth and market share increasing [6]. - The company is expanding its duty-free store layout, adopting a dual-track operation model of "duty-free + taxable" in new city stores, which is expected to drive growth [6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the total revenue is projected to be 55,146 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4,002 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.93 yuan, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 6.9% [5]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend amounting to 5.17 million yuan, which is 16.95% of the net profit for the first three quarters [6]. Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 76.67 yuan, with a market capitalization of 149,696 million yuan [1]. - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.8 and a dividend yield of 1.37% [1]. - The stock's performance over the past year has seen a high of 78.51 yuan and a low of 54.75 yuan [1].

Core Viewpoint - The tourism retail sector experienced a slight increase of 0.79% on November 3, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive movement [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up by 0.55% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up by 0.19% [1] Stock Performance - China Duty Free Group (stock code: 601888) closed at 76.67, with a gain of 0.79% - The trading volume for China Duty Free Group was 480,600 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 3.657 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The tourism retail sector saw a net outflow of 4.1451 million yuan from institutional investors - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.837 million yuan, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 5.9591 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Details - For China Duty Free Group: - Institutional net inflow: -4.1451 million yuan (-0.13%) - Speculative net inflow: 5.9591 million yuan (0.19%) - Retail net outflow: -1.837 million yuan (-0.06%) [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% from the current price [6][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 39.86 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.05 billion, down 22% year-on-year [7][9]. - The third quarter saw revenue of RMB 11.7 billion, remaining flat year-on-year, but the net profit dropped by 29% to RMB 450 million, falling short of expectations [7][9]. - The company announced a cash dividend of RMB 0.25 per share [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the leisure services industry, with an A-share price of RMB 76.07 as of October 31, 2025, and a market capitalization of RMB 148.53 billion [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has seen various ratings over the past year, including "Buy" and "Trading Buy," with the most recent rating being "Trading Buy" on January 17, 2025 [3][6]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 32.54%, while the third quarter margin remained stable at 32% [9]. - The company expects revenue to recover in the fourth quarter, driven by increased sales during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with daily sales in Hainan reaching RMB 940 million, a 5% year-on-year increase [9]. Future Projections - The report revises profit forecasts downward, expecting net profits of RMB 3.72 billion, RMB 3.89 billion, and RMB 4.27 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.80, RMB 1.88, and RMB 2.06 [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) is actively planning for its development in 2026 to seize opportunities from the expected opening of Hainan, despite weak consumer sentiment [1] Financial Performance - The third-quarter performance led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 1% respectively, while the forecast for 2027 was increased by 3% [1] Market Outlook - The anticipated active capital market may support luxury goods sales, which is crucial for the company's growth strategy [1] Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 56 to HKD 61.7, and the target price for A-shares has been increased from CNY 60 to CNY 69, maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Long-term Sales Recovery - The sales recovery momentum for duty-free business at ports is expected to be stronger from 2028 to 2035 [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (01880, 601888.SH) is actively planning for its development in 2026 to seize opportunities from the expected opening of Hainan, despite weak consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Forecasts - The third-quarter performance has led to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 1% respectively, while the forecast for 2027 has been increased by 3% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 56 to HKD 61.7, and the target price for A-shares has been increased from CNY 60 to CNY 69, maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Opportunities - The anticipated active capital market may support luxury goods sales, despite the current weak consumer sentiment [1] - The sales recovery momentum for duty-free business at ports is expected to be stronger from 2028 to 2035 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (01880) to HKD 90, maintaining an "outperform" rating, citing improvements in the company's Hainan operations in October, with increased conversion rates and average transaction sizes [1] Financial Projections - Macquarie has adjusted the net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 downwards by 13% and 5.9% respectively, primarily due to the inclusion of non-operating items and actual data from the third quarter of 2025 [1] - Revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been increased by 0.6%, 4%, and 9.6% respectively, attributed to the adjustments made [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) to HKD 90, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, citing improvements in the company's Hainan business in October [1] Financial Performance - The conversion rate and average ticket size have improved in October, contributing to a better performance [1] - Third-quarter sales decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, which is better than Macquarie's growth expectations [1] - Operating profit declined by 7.5%, a significant improvement compared to a 26.5% decline in the second quarter [1] Profitability and Margin Adjustments - Gross margin is expected to increase by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year when excluding low-margin electronic device sales [1] - Net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 13% and 5.9%, respectively, due to non-operating items and actual data from the third quarter of 2025 [1] - Revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted upward by 0.6%, 4%, and 9.6%, respectively, reflecting actual data from the third quarter of 2025 and the recovery of sales in Hainan duty-free stores [1] - Gross margin expectations for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been lowered by 0.4, 0.8, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, due to an increase in the proportion of low-margin products [1] - Operating profit margin expectations for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, influenced by actual data from the third quarter of 2025 and the downward adjustment of gross margin expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (01880) to HKD 90, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, citing improvements in the company's Hainan business in October [1] Financial Performance - The conversion rate and average transaction size in Hainan have improved, leading to a projected 0.5 percentage point year-on-year increase in gross margin when excluding low-margin electronic device sales [1] - The company's Q3 sales decline has narrowed to 0.4% year-on-year, which is better than Macquarie's growth expectations [1] - Operating profit decreased by 7.5%, a significant improvement compared to a 26.5% decline in Q2 [1] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Macquarie has lowered net profit expectations for FY2025 and FY2026 by 13% and 5.9% respectively, primarily due to the inclusion of non-operating items and actual data from Q3 2025 [1] - Revenue forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 have been raised by 0.6%, 4%, and 9.6% respectively, reflecting actual data from Q3 2025 and the recovery of sales in Hainan duty-free stores [1] Margin and Profitability Outlook - Gross margin expectations for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 have been reduced by 0.4, 0.8, and 0.6 percentage points respectively, mainly due to an increase in the proportion of low-margin products [1] - Operating profit margin expectations for FY2025 and FY2026 have been lowered by 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, attributed to actual data from Q3 2025 and the downward revision of gross margin expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has released a research report indicating that China Duty Free Group is actively planning for its development in 2026 to capitalize on the expected opening of Hainan, further expanding opportunities brought by increased openness [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - Despite weak consumer sentiment, the anticipated active capital market may support luxury goods sales [1] - Based on third-quarter performance, net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 6% and 1% respectively, while the 2027 forecast has been increased by 3% [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 56 to HKD 61.7, and the target price for A-shares has been increased from CNY 60 to CNY 69 [1] - The "Hold" rating is maintained [1] Group 3: Market Recovery Expectations - The sales recovery momentum for duty-free business at the port is expected to be stronger from 2028 to 2035 [1]

大华继显将中国中免A股评级上调至买进。 ...