本文源自：格隆汇 昨日收涨1.74%的中通快递(ZTO.US)今日美股盘前续涨2.57%，报21.55美元。消息面上，国泰海通证券 研报指出，中通快递Q3盈利增速改善主要受益于8月以来反内卷监管下行业价格水平回升和公司业务结 构优化，散件业务量同增50%，持续贡献利润量增。该机构预计公司Q4业务量维持8%左右平稳增长， 净利润增速持续改善。中泰证券亦指，公司是国内加盟制快递龙头，在资产布局、市场份额等方面具备 领先优势，并持续提升核心竞争力，竞争格局改善趋势下有望实现强者更强。 ...

| ZTO 中通快递 | | 507 | | --- | --- | --- | | 21.010 + +0.360 +1.74% | | 收盘价 12/04 16:00 美东 | | 21.550 + 0.540 +2.57% | | 盘前价 12/05 04:03 美东 | | 一 7 24 4 5 8 9 同 ♥ 郎 ♥ 時 2 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 21.175 | 开盘价 21.000 - | 成交量 167.77万 | | 最低价 20.845 | 昨收价 20.650 | 成交额 3533.26万 | | 平均价 21.060 | 市盈率 TM 13.76 | 总市值 166.87亿 (…) | | 振 幅 1.60% | 市盈率(静) 13.89 | 总股本 7.94亿 | | 换手率 0.41% | 市净率 1.823 | 流通值 86.09亿 | | 52周最高 21.247 | 委 比 0.50% | 流通股 4.1亿 | | 52周最低 15.774 量 比 1.03 | | 色 手 1股 | | 历史景高 34.821 股息TTM 0.657 换股比率 1.00 | ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the competitive advantages of Zhongtong Express, highlighting its innovative strategies and market leadership in the express delivery industry since its establishment in 2002 [1] - Zhongtong Express has made significant investments in infrastructure, with a cumulative capital expenditure exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, establishing a leading position in the industry [2] - The company has built a robust logistics network, including over 10,000 self-owned vehicles, 91 self-operated sorting centers, and more than 31,000 collection and delivery points, enhancing its operational efficiency [2] Group 2 - As of Q3 2025, Zhongtong Express achieved a package volume of approximately 9.57 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with a market share of about 19.4% [3] - The company reported an adjusted net profit of 2.51 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 49.05 billion, 53.58 billion, and 58.74 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 9.06 billion, 9.74 billion, and 10.71 billion yuan respectively, suggesting a strong growth outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for ZTO Express suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to increased stock prices [5][10]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7][9]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions for ZTO Express - ZTO Express is expected to earn $1.63 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2025, with no year-over-year change [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZTO Express has increased by 8.8% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perplexing logistics route taken by a package of lamb from Lanzhou to Chengdu, which first diverted to Nanjing, highlighting inefficiencies in modern logistics despite advanced technology [1][3]. Group 1: Logistics Operations - The package's journey involved a total distance of approximately 2800 kilometers instead of the direct 660 kilometers, raising questions about the efficiency of logistics operations [1][3]. - The response from EMS indicated that this routing is standard practice, as Nanjing serves as a central hub for their national air network [4][5]. - Many logistics companies, including SF Express, also utilize similar routing strategies, consolidating packages at central hubs before final delivery [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Rationale - The "hub-and-spoke" model is employed to achieve economies of scale and reduce costs, which may appear inefficient to consumers but is a calculated decision from a logistics perspective [7][8]. - The cost of shipping multiple packages together significantly reduces the average cost per item, demonstrating the financial logic behind the routing choices [9][10]. Group 3: Hub Selection and Strategy - Major logistics companies have strategically chosen locations for their hubs based on factors like cargo flow, land costs, and transportation infrastructure, with a focus on new first-tier cities and key economic regions [11][12]. - The government's logistics hub planning aligns with the choices made by companies, creating a supportive environment for efficient logistics operations [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The integration of national logistics networks with corporate logistics systems is expected to enhance efficiency, allowing for smarter routing decisions that balance cost, speed, and reliability [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | U ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in volume, surpassing 180 billion packages in 2023, indicating rapid growth and a shift in operational focus from quantity to quality and service differentiation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Changes - The express delivery volume in China has reached over 180 billion packages in 2023, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1] - The industry is transitioning from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on healthier profit margins and differentiated services [2][4] - Companies are no longer just competing on the number of packages delivered but are emphasizing smarter operations and enhanced service quality [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Pricing Strategies - The first half of 2023 saw a decline in single-package revenue for major companies due to intense price competition, with significant drops in cash flow for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda [2] - A policy shift initiated in July 2023 led to price increases across various regions, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express reporting a rise in single-package revenue in October [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in pricing, with companies focusing on improving service quality and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 3: Service Differentiation and Quality Focus - The competition is evolving towards service quality, with companies like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng Express emphasizing personalized services and comprehensive logistics solutions [4][5] - Shunfeng Express is focusing on high-end e-commerce markets and enhancing its service capabilities to drive revenue growth [5][6] - Companies are investing in technology and operational improvements to boost service quality and customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, with the adoption of AI and robotics across the logistics chain [7][8] - Innovations such as automated sorting systems and delivery drones are being integrated into the logistics process, significantly reducing operational costs [7] - Companies are also implementing digital solutions to improve management and decision-making processes within their networks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express's business volume growth rate has slowed down in Q3 2025, but profitability has improved due to anti-involution measures. Cost efficiency continues to rise, although future cost reduction potential may narrow. The company's market share has slightly declined, but its leading position remains stable [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express reported revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. Total business volume reached 9.57 billion parcels, up 9.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 and is slightly behind peers [2]. - Net profit and adjusted net profit for Q3 were 2.54 billion yuan and 2.51 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 5%. The improvement in profit growth is attributed to the recovery of industry price levels and optimization of the company's business structure [2]. - The company has revised its annual business volume guidance down to 38.2-38.7 billion parcels from the previous 38.8-40.1 billion parcels, anticipating stable growth of around 8% in Q4 [2]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency - In Q3 2025, the cost per parcel was 0.91 yuan, an increase of 0.09 yuan year-on-year. The transportation cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% to 0.34 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [3]. - Sorting costs per parcel fell by 1.9% to 0.25 yuan, primarily due to the benefits from automation equipment investments. Although the growth rate of business volume is slowing, the company is expected to maintain a downward trend in transportation and sorting costs, albeit at a reduced rate [3]. Group 3: Market Position - ZTO Express's market share in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline of 0.64 and 0.13 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Despite this, the company retains its leading position in the industry [3]. - The ongoing anti-involution regulations are expected to shift industry competition from quantity expansion to quality improvement, favoring leading express companies with high-quality services and mature product systems [3].