Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) shows a strong market position as a leader in the industry, maintaining stable profitability amidst price wars, with a strong recommendation from Dongxing Securities [1] Company Summary - ZTO Express's stock rose over 2.5% to $19.57, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Dongxing Securities maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for ZTO Express, highlighting its robust safety margin [1] - The company is expected to adjust its business volume guidance, shifting its strategic focus towards quality over quantity [1] Industry Summary - The report anticipates an improvement in industry and company profitability in the second half of the year [1] - The environment is shifting towards reducing internal competition, which may lead to a more rational flow of incentives [1] - Although the growth rate of business volume is expected to decline, the profitability per package is projected to rebound [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of price competition on the profitability of the company, with a significant decline in net profit in Q2 2025 compared to the previous year [6][7] - The company has adjusted its annual business volume guidance downwards due to a new economic and competitive landscape, indicating a focus on quality over quantity [6][9] - The report projects a gradual recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025 as the competitive environment stabilizes [8][9] Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but its market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [6] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 2.053 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [6] - The average revenue per package decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased competitive pricing pressures [7][8] Cost Structure - The company's core cost per package increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing slightly while other costs rose significantly [7][8] - The report notes that the increase in costs is largely attributed to a higher proportion of key account (KA) customers, which also contributed to a slight increase in revenue per package [8] Future Outlook - The company expects a recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025 as it shifts its strategic focus to quality and adjusts its incentive structures [8][9] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [9]

Economic Overview - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates stable growth in major production and demand indicators for the first eight months, with industrial added value, service production index, retail sales of consumer goods, and import-export growth rates remaining consistent with the previous months [2] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August compared to the previous month [2] - The logistics industry maintained expansion in August, with improved circulation of production factors and a positive change in production prices, as indicated by a stable PPI [2] Company Insights - Dongfang Jiasheng has established a deep supply chain collaboration with a leading high-end ski brand, aiming to enhance the emotional value of skiing through integrated digital supply chain services [6] - Nova Star Cloud is exploring applications of artificial intelligence in the video image display control industry, indicating a focus on AI technology advancements [6] - China Mobile launched a dedicated large model for the logistics industry, aiming to empower industrial transformation and efficiency through AI solutions [6] - Meituan is providing comprehensive support for new restaurant businesses, including free online store decoration and AI operational tools, to facilitate their successful launch and operation [6] - Tianhua New Energy plans to acquire 75% of Suzhou Tianhua Times New Energy Industry Investment Co., enhancing its long-term development strategy in overseas lithium resource investment [6] Industry Analysis - Zhongtong Express reported a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but faced a slight decline in market share due to intense price competition [7] - The company adjusted its annual business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a more conservative outlook amid a changing economic and competitive landscape [8] - The average revenue per package decreased slightly, influenced by increased incentives and a shift towards lower-priced services, while the company managed to offset some losses through higher-value customer segments [8][9] - The company’s single-package gross profit margin decreased significantly due to heightened competitive pressures, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year as the market stabilizes [9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X, indicating a stable profitability outlook [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have reached a new high since March 2023, driven by limited supply and OPEC's production increase, indicating a tight oil tanker supply-demand situation [6][20]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing a nationwide price increase trend, with a significant recovery in profitability expected in Q4 2025 [7][39]. Summary by Sections Oil Tankers - VLCC freight rates have surged, with a notable increase of 39.3% to 78k USD/day, reflecting a tight supply situation due to limited new ship deliveries and stringent sanctions [9][20]. - The correlation between VLCC freight rates and annual profits of Zhongyuan Shipping indicates potential for price recovery in the sector [6][36]. - OPEC's production policy shift has led to increased exports, further supporting oil transportation demand [28][32]. Express Delivery - The regulatory stance against "involution" in the express delivery sector has strengthened, leading to a nationwide price increase that began as regional trials [51][52]. - The average price across the country has risen by 0.23 RMB since July, with potential net profit increases for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda expected in Q4 2025 [7][53]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability for major express delivery companies, with projected net profit increases of 7.8 billion RMB for Zhongtong and 5.3 billion RMB for Yunda by Q4 2025 [7][56]. Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger transport volume has shown improvement, with a 8% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 14% increase in international passenger volume [61]. - The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 3.2 percentage points, while international load factors have increased by 4.0 percentage points [67]. - Despite a slight decline in ticket prices, the overall market is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue as demand continues to recover [67][75].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in market share and adjusted its business volume guidance for 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining growth amidst a competitive environment [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, but its market share decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.053 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.8% [1] - The company's business volume growth rate was slightly below the industry average of 17.3%, leading to a downward adjustment of the annual business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion items, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 14%-18% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Structure - The average revenue per item decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incremental incentives and a reduction in average item weight [2] - The increase in revenue from key accounts (KA customers) helped offset some of the revenue decline, with a contribution of 0.17 yuan per item [2] - The core cost per item rose to 0.89 yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, with the core costs (transportation + sorting) showing a slight decrease [2][3] Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - The gross profit per item fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure on profitability due to high incremental incentives [3] - The company expects an improvement in profitability in the second half of the year as the competitive environment stabilizes and the focus shifts to quality [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongxing Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057), projecting net profits for the parent company to be 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [1] - ZTO Express, as a leader in the Tongda system, is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level during price wars, indicating a strong margin of safety [1] - In the second quarter, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5% [1] Group 2 - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.053 billion [1] - The report anticipates an improvement in the profitability of the industry and the company in the second half of the year, as the environment shifts away from excessive competition [1] - The company is adjusting its business volume guidance and shifting its strategic focus to prioritize quality, expecting a reduction in incremental incentives for the second half, while the profitability per package is expected to rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongxing Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057), projecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [1] Company Performance - In Q2, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, capturing a market share of 19.5% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.053 billion [1] Industry Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see an improvement in profitability for both the industry and the company [1] - With the formation of a less competitive environment, the company is shifting its focus towards quality over quantity, leading to a downward adjustment in business volume guidance [1] - Although the growth rate of business volume is anticipated to decline, the profit per parcel is expected to rebound accordingly [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 net profit of 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, with a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has adjusted its full-year business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous guidance of 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on quality over quantity in a competitive pricing environment, which has led to a decrease in market share by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company's single-ticket revenue decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incentives and a decline in average weight [2]. - The single-ticket core cost increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, while the core cost (transportation + sorting) decreased by 0.07 yuan [2][3]. - The single-ticket gross profit fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure from pricing competition [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level despite the ongoing price wars, indicating strong safety margins [4]. Company Overview - ZTO Express is a large group company that integrates express delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and printing services, operating a highly scalable network partner model [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 120.778 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 89.595 billion HKD [6].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing a price increase trend since July and August, with approximately 80% of the national market share in provinces that have announced price hikes, indicating a potential recovery in performance for franchisees and listed companies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Trends - Starting from August 4, Guangdong initiated collective price hikes, with the price for a 0.1kg special item rising to over 1.4 yuan per ticket, aiming to stabilize market shares [2]. - By August 11, Zhejiang and Jiangsu began adjusting prices, with increases of 0.3 yuan per ticket in Zhejiang and 0.4 yuan in Jiangsu, contributing to 16.9% and 7.9% of the national express delivery volume respectively [2]. - On August 20, Fujian issued price increase notices, setting a minimum price of 1.5 yuan for packages under 0.3kg, with a total volume of 32.6 billion items in the first half of 2025, accounting for 3.4% of the national total [2]. Group 2: Regional Price Adjustments - By September 4, regions including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan began to follow suit with price increases, with Henan raising all outbound express prices by 0.2 yuan per ticket [3]. - The Hebei and Henan provinces are significant players in the express delivery market, contributing 6.0% and 5.7% to the national volume respectively [3]. - Shandong's YTO Express updated its pricing parameters, automatically increasing all outbound express prices by 0.2 yuan, reflecting the importance of price adjustments in the northern e-commerce market [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook and Performance Recovery - The ongoing price adjustments are seen as a response to cost pressures and a step towards establishing a long-term mechanism against "involution" in the industry [3]. - Based on the price increase trend, the industry is expected to continue raising prices, leading to potential performance recovery for franchisees and listed companies as the peak season in September approaches [4]. - According to estimates, a price increase of 0.1 yuan could lead to an increase in net profit per ticket for listed companies, with varying price elasticity among major players like Zhongtong, YTO, and Shentong [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the context of the "anti-involution" policy, despite the overall pressure on the express delivery sector in the first half of 2025, there is optimism for performance recovery in the short term due to price stabilization and improved competitive dynamics [5]. - Companies such as Jitu Express, Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Zhongtong Express are recommended for investment, with expectations of performance recovery driven by price adjustments and market share growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reiterates that "anti-involution" will be the thematic trade for the Chinese market over the next 18 to 24 months, with a broader scope than the previous supply-side reform [1] Group 1: Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policy closely resembles the 2021 regulatory approach aimed at preventing disorderly capital expansion, but it has a wider range, focusing on streamlining local government endorsements and investment subsidies [1] - Three industrial ecosystems are affected by this policy, with renewable energy stocks prioritized due to their superior revenue structure compared to real estate and macro stocks, and stronger policy enforcement compared to e-commerce stocks [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The "anti-involution" policy is crucial for the Chinese stock market, as higher ROI is a prerequisite for the institutionalization process and market expansion of onshore stocks, benefiting large industry leaders [1] - A list of preferred Chinese stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy includes Daqo New Energy, Hengli Petrochemical, CATL, Zhongsheng Holdings, Baosteel, SF Holding, GAC Group, PetroChina, and ZTO Express [1]