Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) announced the cancellation of 8.9403 million American Depositary Shares corresponding to Class A ordinary shares, effective December 24, 2025 [1] Company Summary - ZTO Express will cancel a total of 8.9403 million shares that have been repurchased [1]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057.HK) announced the cancellation of 8.9403 million shares on December 24, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The company will execute the share cancellation as part of its capital management strategy [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) FF305 B. 贖回/購回股份 (擬註銷但截至期終結存日期尚未註銷) (註5及6) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 呈交日期： 2025年12月24日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02057 | 說明 | A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the express delivery industry is experiencing a recovery in performance due to price increases and seasonal volume growth, with a recommendation for leading companies like SF Holding and Zhongtong Express [1][5] - In November, the express delivery business volume grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The average unit price for SF Holding increased by 0.29 yuan in November, indicating a shift from scale-driven growth to value-driven growth, which is beneficial for profit margin recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The express delivery industry saw a significant price increase of 1.9% month-on-month in November, with the average unit price at 7.62 yuan, although it remains down 8.3% year-on-year [4] - The competitive landscape is changing, with a focus on high-quality development and a notable shift in market dynamics due to the "anti-involution" trend, which has led to price recovery since August [5] - The market share for express delivery companies from January to November shows that Zhongtong holds 15.6%, Shentong 13.1%, Yunda 13.0%, and SF Holding 8.4%, with SF Holding gaining 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities recommends focusing on leading companies in the express delivery industry, particularly SF Holding and Zhongtong Express, due to expected improvements in operational and cash flow performance as the industry undergoes significant changes and price recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In November, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in business volume, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.82 trillion yuan from January to November, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales growth [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - In November, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express delivered 2.886 billion parcels, Shentong Express 2.502 billion, Yunda Express 2.175 billion, and SF Holding 1.534 billion. SF Holding showed the highest growth rate at 20.13% [3]. - For the cumulative business volume from January to November, the figures were: YTO Express 28.26 billion parcels, Shentong Express 23.64 billion, Yunda Express 23.45 billion, and SF Holding 15.16 billion, with SF Holding leading in growth rate at 27.25% [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry saw a 1.9% month-on-month increase in average pricing in November, with the average price per parcel at 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [4]. - SF Holding's average price per parcel increased by 0.29 yuan month-on-month to 13.47 yuan, while Shentong Express's price rose by 0.23 yuan to 2.41 yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce, despite a downward trend in the average value of goods per parcel [5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is leading to price recovery and a shift towards high-quality development, suggesting a potential acceleration in market differentiation among companies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, and notes a continued increase in second-hand ship prices, with a 5-year-old VLCC price rising by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - Seasonal fluctuations are observed in freight rates, with oil and bulk carrier second-hand prices increasing. The report recommends stocks like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The second-hand ship price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points, with a recommendation for COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - VLCC freight rates decreased by 11% to $101,623 per day, while Suezmax rates increased by 9% to $78,107 per day [4]. Airline Sector - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [4]. - Airlines are projected to experience significant profitability improvements, with recommendations for stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with data showing a slight decrease in freight volume [4]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines through 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [28]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with SF Express and YTO Express continuing to outperform the industry [2]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the potential for revenue and performance elasticity in the upcoming verification period [3]. - The report recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, noting their strong performance metrics and resilience in a slowing industry [3]. - Jitu Express is also recommended due to its significant growth in Southeast Asia, which supports stable profitability in the domestic market [3]. - SF Express is viewed positively despite short-term performance pressure, with effective operational activation mechanisms driving business scale expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In November, the industry completed a business volume of 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with a cumulative volume of 180.74 billion pieces for the year, up 14.9% [6]. - Industry revenue in November was 137.65 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for the year reached 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [6]. - The average revenue per piece in November was 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.50 yuan, down 6.8% [6]. Company Performance - In November, SF Express led the industry with a business volume growth rate of 20.1%, followed by Shentong Express at 14.7% and YTO Express at 13.6% [6]. - Shentong Express reported the highest revenue growth in November at 33.1%, while YTO Express and SF Express had growth rates of 11.1% and 9.9%, respectively [6]. - The average revenue per piece for Shentong Express was 2.41 yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year, while SF Express reported 13.47 yuan, down 8.5% [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend as a key driver for performance elasticity among express delivery companies [3]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure peak for SF Express has passed, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [4]. - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) stands at 86.9%, indicating a high level of market concentration [9].

Core Insights - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. shares have increased by approximately 13% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] Recent Earnings Report - For Q3 2025, ZTO Express reported earnings of 43 cents per share, an improvement from the previous year, with total revenues reaching $1.66 billion, also up year over year [3] - The company has revised its 2025 parcel volume guidance down to 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.3-13.8%, compared to the previous guidance of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, which indicated a growth of 14-18% [3] Operational Performance - Revenue from the core express delivery business increased by 11.6% year over year, driven by a 9.8% growth in parcel volume and a 1.7% increase in parcel unit price [4] - Key account revenues surged by 141.2% year over year due to an increase in e-commerce return parcels [4] - Revenue from freight forwarding services declined by 7.4% year over year [4] Financial Metrics - Revenue from accessory sales, primarily digital thermal paper waybills, rose by 0.5% year over year [5] - Gross profit decreased by 11.4% from the previous year, with the gross margin rate falling to 24.9% from 31.2% [5] - Total operating expenses were RMB550.9 million (approximately $77.4 million), up from RMB493.0 million in the prior year [5] Share Repurchase Program - ZTO's board approved a share repurchase program with an increased aggregate value of $2.0 billion, effective through June 30, 2026 [6] - As of September 30, 2025, ZTO had repurchased 52,919,506 ADSs for $1.3 billion, leaving $0.7 billion available under the program [6] Cash Position - At the end of Q3 2025, ZTO Express had cash and cash equivalents of $1.31 billion, down from $1.85 billion at the end of the previous quarter [7] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have not made any earnings estimate revisions in the last two months [8] VGM Scores - ZTO Express has a subpar Growth Score of D, a strong Momentum Score of A, and a Value Score of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [9] Outlook - ZTO Express holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [10]