浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，上调中通快递-W(02057)至"买入"评级，第三季度业绩稳健，在"反内 卷"背景下实现量价齐升。中通作为行业龙头，未来将更加专注网络稳定，强化竞争优势，推进高数量 向高质量的转型。该行预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为96.2、110.2、120.8亿元，对应PE分别为 12.0、10.4和9.4倍。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 2025年Q3业绩调整后净利润同比+2.0% 2025Q3中通实现营业收入118.6亿元，同比+11.1%，毛利为29.6亿元，调整后净利润25.1亿元，同比 +5.0%。25Q3快递业务收入110.2亿元，同比+11.6%。该增长是由于包裹量增长9.8%及单票价格增长 1.7%带动。由直销机构产生的直客业务收入增长141.2%，这主要得益于电商退货包裹量的增加。物料 销售收入主要包括电子热敏纸面单销售收入，增长0.5%。25Q3经营活动产生的现金流为人民币32亿 元，同比基本持平，资本支出为11.9亿元。 25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元;环比25Q2提升0.05元。快递反内卷背景下，第一轮涨价 已覆盖全国超90%区域 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zheshang Securities upgraded ZTO Express (02057) to a "Buy" rating, citing robust Q3 performance with simultaneous volume and price growth in the context of "anti-involution" [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, ZTO achieved revenue of RMB 11.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with a gross profit of RMB 2.96 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.51 billion, up 5.0% year-on-year [1] - The express delivery business revenue reached RMB 11.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, driven by a 9.8% increase in package volume and a 1.7% rise in unit price [1] - Cash flow from operating activities was RMB 3.2 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, with capital expenditures of RMB 1.19 billion [1] Market Position and Growth - In Q3 2025, the company completed 9.57 billion express deliveries, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The volume of scattered goods business grew nearly 50% year-on-year, contributing positively to profits [2] - The annual package volume forecast for 2025 is adjusted to between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2] Network and Infrastructure - As of September 30, 2025, ZTO had over 31,000 collection and delivery points and approximately 6,000 direct network partners [3] - The company operates around 10,000 self-owned trunk vehicles and has 95 sorting centers, 91 of which are operated by the company [3] Pricing and Cost Management - The core unit revenue in Q3 2025 was RMB 1.22, an increase of RMB 0.02 year-on-year, with a rise in key account customer pricing offsetting some cost impacts [4] - The combined sorting and transportation costs per unit decreased by RMB 0.05, attributed to improved transportation cost efficiency [4] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 5.3% of revenue [4] - The first round of price increases has covered over 90% of regions, with a second round expected post-National Day, supporting express delivery prices during the peak season [4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.44%, the S&P 500 up 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.69% [1] - Large-cap tech stocks saw significant gains, with Tesla and Google both rising over 6% [1] Sector Highlights - Semiconductor stocks performed strongly, with Broadcom's stock increasing by 11%, marking its largest gain since April, adding $178 billion to its market capitalization [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 4.6%, with Micron Technology up nearly 8%, AMD up over 5%, and Nvidia up over 2% [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.82%, with notable gains in popular Chinese concept stocks [1] - Key performers included WeRide up 14.72%, Pony.ai up 12.51%, and Canadian Solar up 10.16% [1] - Other significant increases were seen in Daqo New Energy up 8.89%, Global Data up 8.38%, Baidu up 7.44%, and Bilibili up 6.80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 performance, showing a revenue increase but a decline in adjusted net profit, indicating mixed operational results amidst a competitive market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 34.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 6.818 billion yuan, down 8.1% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated a revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% [1]. Operational Metrics - In Q3 2025, the company handled a total of 9.573 billion express packages, marking a 9.8% year-on-year increase, with a strong growth trend in scattered package business, which grew nearly 50% year-on-year [1]. - The company's market share in Q3 was approximately 19.4%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, maintaining the leading position in the industry [1]. Pricing and Cost Structure - The average revenue per package in Q3 2025 was 1.15 yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to industry price improvements driven by "anti-involution" measures [2]. - The cost per package in Q3 2025 was approximately 0.59 yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with line-haul transportation costs at 0.34 yuan (down 12.7%) and sorting costs remaining stable at 0.25 yuan [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The adjusted net profit per package in Q3 2025 was 0.262 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year but up 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability trends [2]. - The operating cash flow per package was 0.335 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting challenges in cash generation [2]. Growth Outlook - The company revised its full-year package volume growth target to 12.3% to 13.8%, down from a previous forecast of 14% to 18%, emphasizing a focus on quality and market share expansion [2]. - The company aims for sustainable growth while maintaining healthy profitability amidst evolving market dynamics [2]. Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is expected to evolve towards healthier competition due to ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, with growth potential remaining strong, particularly in the context of e-commerce expansion [3]. - The shift from quantity to quality in service delivery is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [3]. Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 9.870 billion yuan, 11.273 billion yuan, and 12.526 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is currently viewed as a better value opportunity compared to TFI International Inc. based on various financial metrics and analyst outlooks [1]. Valuation Metrics - ZTO has a forward P/E ratio of 12.18, significantly lower than TFII's forward P/E of 20.28, indicating ZTO may be undervalued [5]. - The PEG ratio for ZTO is 3.93, while TFII's PEG ratio is 4.86, suggesting ZTO has a more favorable earnings growth outlook relative to its price [5]. - ZTO's P/B ratio stands at 1.25, compared to TFII's P/B of 2.68, further indicating ZTO's stock may be undervalued relative to its book value [6]. Analyst Outlook - ZTO holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), reflecting a positive earnings estimate revision trend, while TFII has a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating a less favorable outlook [3]. - The solid earnings outlook for ZTO, combined with its favorable valuation metrics, positions it as the superior value option in the current market [7].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express to "Buy" [6] Core Views - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The growth in express delivery revenue was driven by a 9.8% increase in package volume and a 1.7% increase in average price per package [1] - The company anticipates a total package volume for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - Adjusted net profit increased by 5.0% year-on-year to RMB 2.51 billion, with a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion [1] - The express delivery business generated RMB 11.02 billion in revenue, up 11.6% year-on-year, supported by a 9.8% increase in package volume [1][2] Operational Data - The company completed 9.57 billion express deliveries in Q3 2025, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The number of collection and delivery points exceeded 31,000, with approximately 10,000 owned vehicles [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The core revenue per package was RMB 1.22, an increase of RMB 0.02 year-on-year, with cost efficiencies leading to a reduction in sorting and transportation costs [3] - The adjusted net profit per package was RMB 0.26, slightly down from RMB 0.27 in Q3 2024, but improved by RMB 0.05 from Q2 2025 [3] Profit Forecast - ZTO Express is expected to focus on network stability and competitive advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 9.62 billion, RMB 11.02 billion, and RMB 12.08 billion respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 195.99, based on a 15x P/E for 2025 [4][14]. Core Insights - The "Same Building and Sharing" concept has established a stable foundation for the franchise network, contributing to the company's leading position in the industry [4][23]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 471.07 billion, RMB 516.85 billion, and RMB 577.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 10%, and 12% [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 95.65 billion, RMB 106.33 billion, and RMB 119.29 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 11%, and 12% [3][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 38,419 million, increasing to RMB 44,281 million in 2024, and further to RMB 47,107 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.6% in 2023 and 15.3% in 2024 [3][13]. - Gross profit is expected to rise from RMB 11,663 million in 2023 to RMB 13,717 million in 2024, and then to RMB 13,571 million in 2025 [3]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 14.96 in 2023 to 12.25 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation attractiveness [3][15]. Business Analysis - The company has maintained a leading market share in the express delivery sector, achieving a market share of 14.4% in 2016 and consistently holding the top position since then [4][23]. - The franchise model has been pivotal in the company's growth, allowing for efficient cost management and stable revenue generation [4][23]. - The report highlights the importance of early investment in core assets, which has contributed to the company's operational efficiency and market share growth [4][23]. Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is transitioning into a phase of moderate growth, with projected compound annual growth rates of 23.45% for business volume and 16.03% for revenue from 2017 to 2024 [36]. - The report notes that the industry is expected to reach a milestone of 1 trillion packages, driven by e-commerce growth and improved operational efficiencies [36].

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the entrepreneurial journey of Hu Xiangliang, the founder of Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse Technology, highlighting the company's innovative logistics solutions and its strategic expansion into various sectors, including e-commerce and cross-border logistics [4][6][8]. Company Overview - Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse Technology was established in 2018, aiming to create a comprehensive logistics supply chain service provider covering e-commerce, B2B, and cross-border logistics [6][8]. - The company currently operates over 270 warehouses with a storage area exceeding 2 million square meters, achieving nationwide delivery coverage in 99% of districts and 96% of towns in China [8]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to surpass 7 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with expectations to reach 10 billion yuan by 2025 [8]. - Recently, Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse completed a nearly 200 million yuan Series A financing round, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in its business model [8]. Business Model and Innovations - Hu Xiangliang implemented a unique "upper warehouse and lower distribution" model, optimizing the logistics process and significantly reducing delivery times by 12-24 hours while decreasing package damage rates by over 25% [16]. - The company integrates AI and big data into its operations, achieving a peak order processing capacity of over 1 million orders per hour [18]. Market Expansion and Strategy - Zhongtong Cloud Warehouse is focusing on international markets, particularly Central Asia, where it aims to establish a stable logistics infrastructure to enhance delivery efficiency [21][22]. - The Central Asian e-commerce market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 14.7 billion USD by 2024, presenting a substantial opportunity for the company [22]. Future Outlook - The company plans to diversify its business further, with a goal for overseas operations to contribute approximately 25% of total revenue in the future [26]. - Hu Xiangliang aims to refine the company's business model and maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving logistics landscape, emphasizing the importance of technology and innovation [28][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhongtong Express Company Overview - The conference call discusses Zhongtong Express, a key player in the express delivery industry in China, focusing on its strategies and performance in the context of industry dynamics and macroeconomic factors [2][3]. Core Industry Insights - The company is implementing a policy to combat excessive competition, aiming to stabilize prices in the express delivery industry and enhance service quality for high-quality development [2][4]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, primarily due to rising prices leading to increased logistics costs, which significantly affect price-sensitive e-commerce businesses [4][13]. - The overall market growth is expected to stabilize around 10% in 2026, with a shift in focus towards service quality and operational efficiency [4][14]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a package volume of 9.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with adjusted net income rising 5% to 2.51 billion [3][9]. - The average selling price (ASP) of core express services increased by 1.7%, contributing to total revenue growth of 11.1% to 11.9 billion [9]. - However, gross profit decreased by 11.4% to 3 billion, and operating profit fell by 15.4% to 2.4 billion, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst rising costs [9]. Strategic Development Plans - The company is focusing on enhancing product and service capabilities through five key areas: 1. Establishing a comprehensive end-to-end quality management system centered on service quality [5]. 2. Improving last-mile delivery capabilities and upgrading sorting centers [5]. 3. Optimizing network policies and incentive mechanisms for transparency and fairness [5]. 4. Increasing end-to-end cost efficiency through advanced technology and digital tools [5]. 5. Maintaining fairness and grassroots interests by improving communication and governance [5]. Innovations and New Initiatives - Zhongtong Express is developing a warehousing cloud platform and last-mile delivery network to provide integrated logistics solutions, with plans to enter modeling, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors for efficient solutions [6]. - The company aims to differentiate itself by directly connecting products from factories to consumers and delivering agricultural products from farms to tables [6]. Market Outlook and Challenges - Despite short-term challenges and uncertainties in the macroeconomic recovery, the company remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the express and logistics industry, expecting a total package volume of 3.82 to 3.87 billion for the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [8]. - The company acknowledges potential impacts from antitrust policies on market pricing but believes that a more orderly competitive landscape will support its strategic execution [8][10]. Cost Management Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of capacity and infrastructure development to maintain cost advantages, focusing on reducing end-to-end costs through efficient resource allocation and technology investments [15]. - Measures include enhancing automation capabilities for network partners and optimizing resource distribution based on network capacity layouts [15][16]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry is transitioning from high-speed growth to a focus on high-quality development, driven by regulatory policies and market expectations [12]. - Zhongtong Express is positioning itself to lead this transition by improving service quality, operational efficiency, and maintaining a competitive edge through innovation and strategic partnerships [12].