Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 1.19 yuan, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and route optimization [4] Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion parcels in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24%, which is expected to further consolidate its leading market position [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 10.324 billion, 11.655 billion, and 13.388 billion yuan, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1]. - The focus for 2025 will shift towards increasing market share, with a target business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in single-ticket revenue, dropping from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024 to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decrease in single-ticket weight [2]. - Operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 from 735 million CNY in Q1 2024, largely due to government subsidies and tax refunds [2]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a strategy shift back to prioritizing market share, which may lead to slower profit growth in the short term [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 9.52 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.42 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.90 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.68% [8]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 19.24% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.94% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：价格战导致 收入端承压，份额增长依旧是经营重心 事件：公司发布 2025 一季报，公司单季完成业务量 85.40 亿件，同比增长 19.1%，市场份额下降 0.4pct 至 18.9%。公司调整后净利润 22.59 亿元，同比 增长 1.6%。 业务量增速回升，但略低于行业均值，25 年重点提升份额：24 年 Q1-Q4，中 通业务量增速分别为 13.9%、10.1%、15.9%和 11.0%，可以看到 24 年整体 业务量增速偏低。25 年公司将工作重心转向提升市场份额，Q1 业务量增速提 升至 19.1%，但还略低于行业增速的 21.6%，主要系低价件整体维持了较快增 长，导致行业整体增速较高。公司维持 25 年业务量 408-422 亿件，同比增长 20-24%的指引不变，按照指引，预计后续几个季度公司业务量增速较 Q1 有所 提升。 单票收入下降 0.11 元，主要系增量补贴提升：Q1 行业竞争较为激烈，导致公 司单票收入由 24Q1 的 1.36 元降至 25Q1 的 1.25 元。其中单票增量补贴增加 导致单票收入下降 0.16 元，以及单票重量下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan, up 1.6%, which aligns with expectations [1] - The volume of business completed by the company reached 8.539 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The volume of scattered goods increased by 46% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall business volume growth, driven by the company's expansion in the returns sector and deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients [1] - The company is optimistic about the continued growth of its scattered goods business due to the implementation of its corner-to-corner policy and the expansion of its service station coverage [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company's single ticket distribution cost was 0.27 yuan per ticket, down 0.03 yuan year-on-year, while the single ticket transportation cost was 0.41 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan, indicating a core cost reduction of 0.09 yuan [2] - The company's operational capabilities and cost efficiency are improving, allowing it to maintain performance resilience amid increasing industry competition. The company expects a business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025 [2] - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 9.54 billion, 10.53 billion, and 12.05 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 10%, and 14% [2]

Group 1 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has set the final price for its H-share issuance at HKD 44.05 per share, which is the upper limit of the previously expected price range [1] - The H-shares will officially be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 23, with cornerstone investors including GIC, Invesco, UBS Global Asset Management, Hillhouse Capital, and Boyu Capital [1] - The purpose of this H-share issuance is to further promote the company's global strategic layout, enhance its international brand image, and strengthen connections with overseas capital markets [1] Group 2 - Chao Hong Ji is planning to issue H-shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with details and plans yet to be finalized [2] - The company has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days [2] - This move is aimed at expanding the international market and enhancing brand influence, which is expected to positively impact the company's long-term development [2] Group 3 - ZTO Express reported a revenue of CNY 10.892 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [3] - The gross profit for the same period was CNY 2.689 billion, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was CNY 2.259 billion, up 1.6% year-on-year [3] - The company completed a total of 8.5 billion packages in Q1, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [3] Group 4 - Hangpin Life Technology announced the acquisition of 1 million shares of China Petroleum at an average price of HKD 6.285 per share, totaling HKD 6.285 million [4] - This acquisition is part of the company's diversification strategy, aimed at increasing investment returns and financial flexibility [4] - The shares acquired will be held as a long-term investment to achieve capital appreciation and potential dividend income [4]

Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a total package volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [1] - The company's revenue reached 10.89 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 40.9% to 2.04 billion yuan [1] - The competitive landscape in China's express delivery industry has intensified, with a notable increase in low-value or loss-making packages [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit increased by 1.6% to 2.26 billion yuan, with operating cash flow at 2.36 billion yuan [1] - The average revenue per package decreased by 0.11 yuan due to competitive pricing and changes in package weight [4][5] - Capital expenditure for the quarter was 2 billion yuan, with management expenses accounting for 4.7% of revenue [4] Market Position and Strategy - ZTO Express aims to maintain its leading position in the market while focusing on service quality and volume [10] - The company has set a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [9] - The company is increasing its focus on parcel business, which saw a 46% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2][11] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like YTO Express and SF Express are also experiencing growth, with YTO achieving a revenue of 17.06 billion yuan and a package volume of 6.779 billion pieces in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The price competition remains fierce, with significant declines in average revenue per package across the industry [6][7] - The industry is shifting towards high-quality development, with ZTO Express planning to enhance service capabilities and optimize costs through technology [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5] Core Views - ZTO Express reported Q1 2025 results with revenue of 10.892 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion CNY, up 1.6%, which met expectations [5] - The volume growth has returned, with high service quality driving significant growth in the company's parcel business. In Q1 2025, the company handled 8.539 billion parcels, a 19.1% year-on-year increase, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The parcel business volume grew by 46% year-on-year, benefiting from the company's expansion in the returns sector and deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients [5] - Core costs continue to improve despite increasing industry competition, indicating resilience in performance. The report notes a decrease in per parcel sorting cost to 0.27 CNY and transportation cost to 0.41 CNY, with a total core cost reduction of 0.09 CNY. The company maintains a projected business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025 [5] - The profit forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards due to competitive pressures in the express delivery industry. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 9.54 billion CNY, 10.53 billion CNY, and 12.05 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 10%, and 14% respectively [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (CNY million): 2023: 38,419; 2024: 44,281; 2025E: 48,669; 2026E: 55,122; 2027E: 62,067 [2] - Adjusted Net Profit (CNY million): 2023: 9,006; 2024: 10,150; 2025E: 9,540; 2026E: 10,531; 2027E: 12,045 [2] - Net Asset Return Rate (%): 2023: 14.52; 2024: 13.33; 2025E: 13.87; 2026E: 14.27; 2027E: 15.27 [2] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x): 2023: 11.2; 2024: 10.0; 2025E: 10.6; 2026E: 9.6; 2027E: 8.4 [2] - Price-to-Book Ratio (x): 2023: 1.7; 2024: 1.6; 2025E: 1.3; 2026E: 1.1; 2027E: 1.0 [2]

[ZTO Q1 2025 Earnings Report Overview](index=1&type=section&id=ZTO%20Reports%20First%20Quarter%202025%20Unaudited%20Financial%20Results) [Financial Highlights](index=1&type=section&id=First%20Quarter%202025%20Financial%20Highlights) In the first quarter of 2025, ZTO's revenues increased by 9.4% year-over-year to Chinese Yuan 10.9 billion, driven by strong volume growth, while gross profit declined by 10.4% to Chinese Yuan 2.7 billion, and net income rose significantly by 40.9% to Chinese Yuan 2.0 billion Q1 2025 Key Financial Metrics (vs. Q1 2024) | Metric | Q1 2025 (CNY million) | Q1 2024 (CNY million) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Revenues** | 10,891.5 | 9,960.0 | +9.4% | | **Gross Profit** | 2,689.2 | 3,002.1 | -10.4% | | **Net Income** | 2,039.2 | 1,447.7 | +40.9% | | **Adjusted Net Income** | 2,259.3 | 2,224.0 | +1.6% | | **Adjusted EBITDA** | 3,686.7 | 3,660.4 | +0.7% | | **Net Cash from Operating Activities** | 2,363.0 | 2,031.0 | +16.3% | Q1 2025 Earnings Per ADS (vs. Q1 2024) | Metric | Q1 2025 (CNY) | Q1 2024 (CNY) | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Basic EPS** | 2.50 | 1.77 | +41.2% | | **Diluted EPS** | 2.44 | 1.75 | +39.4% | | **Adjusted Basic EPS** | 2.77 | 2.74 | +1.1% | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS** | 2.71 | 2.68 | +1.1% | [Operational Highlights](index=2&type=section&id=Operational%20Highlights%20for%20First%20Quarter%202025) Operationally, ZTO achieved a 19.1% year-over-year increase in parcel volume, reaching 8.54 billion parcels in Q1 2025, while continuing to expand its infrastructure with over 9,400 high-capacity line-haul vehicles and a vast network of over 31,000 pickup/delivery outlets and 95 sorting hubs - Parcel volume grew **19.1%** YoY to **8.54 billion** from **7.17 billion** in Q1 2024[7](index=7&type=chunk) Key Operational Metrics as of March 31, 2025 | Metric | Value | Note | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Pickup/Delivery Outlets** | > 31,000 | - | | **Direct Network Partners** | ~ 6,000 | - | | **Self-owned Line-haul Vehicles** | > 10,000 | Over 9,400 are high-capacity models | | **Line-haul Routes** | > 3,900 | Between sorting hubs | | **Sorting Hubs** | 95 | 91 operated by ZTO | [Management Commentary](index=3&type=section&id=Management%20Commentary) Management acknowledged the 'white-hot' competition in the express delivery industry, emphasizing a strategy focused on long-term stability and profitable growth, with the CEO highlighting a 46% YoY increase in retail volume from reverse logistics and the CFO detailing a decrease in core express ASP due to higher volume incentives - CEO Meisong Lai stated that competition has reached a 'white-hot' stage, exacerbated by low-value or loss-making volume, with ZTO's strategy focused on maintaining network consistency and long-term profitable growth[8](index=8&type=chunk) - The company is developing differentiated products like time-definite delivery and customized KA services, with retail volume growing **46%** YoY, driven by deeper penetration into reverse logistics[8](index=8&type=chunk) - CFO Huiping Yan explained the core express ASP (Average Selling Price) decreased by **11 cents**, primarily due to a **16-cent** increase in volume incentives[8](index=8&type=chunk) - Cost efficiency improved, with combined unit sorting and transportation costs decreasing by **9 cents** YoY due to productivity initiatives[8](index=8&type=chunk) [Detailed Financial Results (Q1 2025)](index=4&type=section&id=First%20Quarter%202025%20Unaudited%20Financial%20Results) [Revenues](index=4&type=section&id=Revenues) Total revenues for Q1 2025 increased by 9.4% to Chinese Yuan 10.9 billion, driven by a 9.8% growth in core express delivery services revenue, offset by a decline in freight forwarding services, while sales of accessories grew by 15.5% Revenue Breakdown (in Chinese Yuan thousands) | Revenue Source | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Express delivery services** | 10,122,290 | 9,240,172 | +9.5% | | **Freight forwarding services** | 179,219 | 202,747 | -11.6% | | **Sale of accessories** | 560,297 | 485,062 | +15.5% | | **Others** | 29,659 | 32,025 | -7.4% | | **Total revenues** | **10,891,465** | **9,960,006** | **+9.4%** | - The **9.8%** growth in core express delivery revenue was a net result of a **19.1%** parcel volume growth and a **7.8%** decrease in parcel unit price[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Cost of Revenues](index=4&type=section&id=Cost%20of%20Revenues) Total cost of revenues rose 17.9% to Chinese Yuan 8.2 billion, representing 75.3% of total revenues, driven by higher costs across most segments, particularly a 91.3% surge in 'Other costs' related to serving higher-valued enterprise customers, despite unit cost decreases for transportation and sorting hubs Cost of Revenues Breakdown (in Chinese Yuan thousands) | Cost Component | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Line-haul transportation cost** | 3,483,065 | 3,371,493 | +3.3% | | **Sorting hub operating cost** | 2,314,595 | 2,168,201 | +6.8% | | **Other costs** | 2,098,534 | 1,096,798 | +91.3% | | **Total cost of revenues** | **8,202,245** | **6,957,921** | **+17.9%** | [Line-haul Transportation Cost](index=4&type=section&id=Line-haul%20transportation%20cost) Line-haul transportation costs increased by 3.3% to Chinese Yuan 3.5 billion, but the unit transportation cost decreased by 12.8% (6 cents) due to economies of scale, improved load rates, and more effective route planning - Unit transportation cost decreased by **12.8%** or **6 cents**, attributed to better economies of scale and improved efficiency[11](index=11&type=chunk) [Sorting Hub Operating Cost](index=4&type=section&id=Sorting%20hub%20operating%20cost) Sorting hub operating costs grew 6.8% to Chinese Yuan 2.3 billion, mainly from increased labor and depreciation costs, with efficiency gains from automation leading to a 10.0% (3 cents) decrease in sorting hub cost per unit, and the number of automated sorting sets increasing to 631 - Sorting hub operating cost per unit decreased by **10.0%** or **3 cents**, driven by automation and standardization[12](index=12&type=chunk) - The company had **631** sets of automated sorting equipment in service as of March 31, 2025, up from **461** in the previous year[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Profitability Analysis](index=5&type=section&id=Profitability%20Analysis) Gross profit decreased by 10.4% to Chinese Yuan 2.7 billion, with the gross margin contracting to 24.7%, while income from operations grew 6.1% to Chinese Yuan 2.4 billion, supported by lower SG&A expenses and higher government subsidies, leading to a 40.9% surge in net income to Chinese Yuan 2.0 billion - Gross profit decreased **10.4%** to Chinese Yuan **2,689.2 million**, and the gross margin fell to **24.7%** from **30.1%** in Q1 2024[14](index=14&type=chunk) - Income from operations increased **6.1%** to Chinese Yuan **2,405.4 million**, with an operating margin of **22.1%**[18](index=18&type=chunk) - SG&A expenses decreased by **17.7%** to Chinese Yuan **737.5 million**, mainly due to lower compensation and benefit expenses[16](index=16&type=chunk) - Other operating income, net, increased significantly to Chinese Yuan **453.7 million**, primarily consisting of Chinese Yuan **407.6 million** in government subsidies and tax rebates[17](index=17&type=chunk) - Net income increased by **40.9%** to Chinese Yuan **2,039.2 million**, with the prior year's net income impacted by a Chinese Yuan **478.4 million** impairment loss on an investment in Cainiao[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Corporate Updates and Business Outlook](index=6&type=section&id=Corporate%20Updates%20and%20Business%20Outlook) [Recent Developments](index=6&type=section&id=Recent%20Developments) The company announced a change in its Board of Directors, with Ms. Di Xu appointed and Mr. Xudong Chen resigning, effective April 25, 2025, and extended its share repurchase program to June 30, 2026, with US$771.7 million remaining available - Effective April 25, 2025, Ms. Di Xu was appointed as a director, and Mr. Xudong Chen resigned from the Board[25](index=25&type=chunk) - The company extended its share repurchase program to June 30, 2026, with US$**1,228.3 million** used to repurchase **50.9 million** ADSs and US$**771.7 million** remaining as of March 31, 2025[26](index=26&type=chunk)[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Business Outlook](index=6&type=section&id=Business%20Outlook) ZTO has reiterated its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting parcel volume to be between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion, representing an anticipated year-over-year growth of 20% to 24% - The company reiterates its 2025 parcel volume guidance of **40.8 billion** to **42.2 billion**, representing a **20%** to **24%** YoY growth[28](index=28&type=chunk) [Unaudited Consolidated Financial Statements](index=10&type=section&id=UNAUDITED%20CONSOLIDATED%20FINANCIAL%20DATA) [Consolidated Comprehensive Income Statement](index=10&type=section&id=Summary%20of%20Unaudited%20Consolidated%20Comprehensive%20Income%20Data) This section provides the detailed unaudited consolidated income statement for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, breaking down revenues, costs, operating and other expenses, and calculating net income and earnings per share - The full unaudited consolidated comprehensive income data is available on page **10** of the report[43](index=43&type=chunk) [Consolidated Balance Sheet](index=11&type=section&id=Unaudited%20Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheets%20Data) This section presents the company's unaudited consolidated balance sheet as of March 31, 2025, compared to December 31, 2024, detailing the company's assets, liabilities, and shareholders' equity - The full unaudited consolidated balance sheet data is available on page **11** of the report[44](index=44&type=chunk) [Consolidated Cash Flow Statement](index=13&type=section&id=Summary%20of%20Unaudited%20Consolidated%20Cash%20Flow%20Data) This section contains the unaudited consolidated cash flow statement for the three months ended March 31, 2025, outlining cash flows from operating, investing, and financing activities - The full unaudited consolidated cash flow data is available on page **13** of the report[46](index=46&type=chunk) [Reconciliation of GAAP and Non-GAAP Results](index=14&type=section&id=Reconciliations%20of%20GAAP%20and%20Non-GAAP%20Results) This section provides detailed tables reconciling the company's GAAP financial measures to its non-GAAP measures, adjusting for items like share-based compensation and impairment of investments to calculate Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted EPS - The report provides reconciliations of Net Income to Adjusted Net Income, and Net Income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA[47](index=47&type=chunk) - A reconciliation of Net Income Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders to Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Ordinary Shareholders is also provided to calculate adjusted EPS[48](index=48&type=chunk)

香港恒生指数收涨0.62% 恒生科技指数涨0.51% 智通财经5月21日电，香港恒生指数收涨0.62%，恒生科技指数涨0.51%。美图公司涨超18%，赤峰黄金 涨超13%，宁德时代、万国数据涨超10%；毛戈平、中通快递跌超5%。 ...