新茶饮知名品牌喜茶近期的"骚"操作算不上少，可要说操作效果，却是喜忧参半。 3月24日，喜茶就与《光与夜之恋》联名活动周边被倒卖一事公布了相关事件的调查进度，宣布已解聘私自泄密员工。紧接着第二天，喜茶就官宣了邀请 著名健身博主帕梅拉·莱孚（Pamela Reif）担任喜茶2024年"健康推荐官"，围绕"轻负担、真健康"，推荐了11款茶饮产品。好事坏事一桩接一桩，给人一种 匆忙又应接不暇的感觉。 相比之下，作为喜茶*竞争对手之一的霸王茶姬，应对"茶饮健康化"时的步调则显得有条不紊。先是为科学控糖推出GI值标识；随后又为新品"醒时春 山"请到刘畊宏叫板喜茶的推广官帕姐。 图源喜茶、霸王茶姬官方微博 这边的喜茶看起来略显慌张，那边的霸王茶姬却是带着几分若有似无的淡定，真相果真如此吗？喜茶的一顿操作猛如虎，为什么效果并不如人意？对抗霸 王茶姬，喜茶反击的胜负手究竟在哪里呢？ 其人之道，还不了其人之身 喜茶一直是新茶饮界的龙头。 出道即*，这样的评价用在喜茶身上并不为过。喜茶是新茶饮界排队买奶茶的领军人物，当年大排长龙、托黄牛100块买一杯的场景曾经轰动朋友圈。 即便是排队的风头逐渐褪去，喜茶依然稳坐全国连锁新茶饮品牌 ...

2024 年 4 月 12 日 公司动态 奈雪的茶（2150.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 开放加盟，门店加速扩张 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 奈雪的茶2023年营业收入为51.6亿，同比增长20%，净利润为1120万元，去年同 期亏损4.75亿。公司在高线城市不断加密，直营门店数达1574家，净新增506家。 目标价格： 3.7 元 同时公司开放加盟，截止23年底已有81家，未来加盟门店将成为扩张的主要方式。 现价(2024-4-11)： 2.67港元 考虑公司扩张模式由直营转型加盟，我们下调了 24/25/26 年净利润分别至 1.3/2.2/2.7亿人民币，对应EPS为0.09/0.14/0.18港元。维持“买入”评级，下 调目标价至3.7港元，较当前股价有39%的上涨空间 总市值(百万港元) 4,647.99 报告摘要 流通市值(百万港元) 4,647.99 直营门店在高线城市持续加密。23年底公司直营门店总数达1574家，同比22年末 总股本(百万股) 1,715.13 净新增506家。其中，一线/新一线/二线/其他城市门店数各为542/552/328/152家， 流通股本(百万股) 1,715 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a target price of 2.53 HKD, maintaining the current rating [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.16 billion HKD for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.13 billion HKD, marking a turnaround from losses, with adjusted profit at 0.21 billion HKD, corresponding to a net profit margin of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2 percentage points [1]. - The company opened a net of 506 new tea shops in 2023, with a breakdown of 334 first-category and 172 second-category tea shops, continuing to expand its network in high-tier cities [1]. - The average daily sales per tea shop in 2023 were 344 orders, remaining stable year-on-year, with an average sales value of 29.6 HKD per order, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve profits of 1.3 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.5 billion HKD in 2024-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 22, and 16 times respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.16 billion HKD, with a breakdown of 2.59 billion HKD in the first half (up 26.8% year-on-year) and 2.57 billion HKD in the second half (up 14.4% year-on-year). The net profit for the first half was 0.66 billion HKD, while the second half saw a loss of 0.53 billion HKD [1]. - The company’s operating profit margin for tea shops was 17.7%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, with stable cost ratios across various categories [1]. Store Expansion - The total number of tea shops reached 1,574 by the end of 2023, with 81 franchise stores opened by the end of the year and approximately 200 franchise stores operational by the end of February 2024 [1]. Cost Structure - The cost structure showed that raw material costs accounted for 32.9% of total costs, employee costs for 27.2%, and rental expenses decreased due to improved negotiation capabilities and reduced new store sizes [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Nayuki (2150 HK) but cuts the target price to HK$ 3.43 [2][4] Core View - The report highlights that franchising and cost-cutting are key to Nayuki's strategy, despite a cautious outlook on the catering sector due to weakening macro demand and increased competition [2] - Nayuki's high cash level (over 75% of its market cap) and potential income from franchising are key reasons for the BUY rating [2] - The report expects a mixed FY24E outlook with pressure on topline growth but some room for margin improvement [2] Store Expansion and Performance - Nayuki's SSSG for Jan/Feb/Mar 2024 were -29%/-34%/-30%, worse than the 7% drop in 2H23, driven by a drop in both ASP and volume [2] - The store expansion plan for FY24E is conservative, with ~200 new self-operated stores and ~150 closures, resulting in a net increase of only a handful of stores [2] - For franchising, around 80 stores were opened in FY23, and the target for FY24E is 200-400 franchised stores, with a long-term goal of 2,000-3,000 new stores [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth for FY24E is forecasted at 14%, driven by a 3% increase in store counts (excluding franchise), a 6% increase in sales per store, and ramp-up of RTD and franchising business [2] - Net profit margin for FY24E is expected to improve to around 1.1%, supported by stable GP margin, cost control, and cautious investment in the RTD business [2] - The report cuts FY24E/25E net profit by 87%/72% due to slower self-operated store expansion and falling sales per store [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Nayuki is currently trading at 0.7x FY24E P/S and 20x FY25E P/E, with a target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31.3% upside from the current price of HK$ 2.61 [2][4] - The valuation method has been changed from 20x FY24E P/E to 1.0x FY24E P/S, applying a ~20% discount to peers' average of 1.2x [2] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue increased by 20% YoY to RMB 5.2bn, with net profit turning positive to RMB 13mn, but NP margin remained low at 0.3% [6] - In 2H23, sales growth slowed to 14%, and NP margin turned negative to -2.1%, driven by a sharp drop in ASP and volume [6] Earnings Revision - The report significantly revises down FY24E revenue and net profit estimates, with revenue now forecasted at RMB 5,877mn (-28.2% from previous estimates) and net profit at RMB 63.7mn (-86.9% from previous estimates) [7] Peer Comparison - Nayuki's valuation is compared to peers in the Greater China catering sector, with a 12-month target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31% upside [12]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易 证券研究报告 奈雪的茶（2150）公司研究报告 2024年04月03日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 全年实现扭亏为盈，轻资产运营加速发展 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 4[T月ab3l日e_收S盘to价ck（In港fo元] ） 2.61 投资要点： 52周股价波动（港元） 2.40-9.11 总股本/流通股（亿股） 17.15/3.35 事件：奈雪的茶发布2023全年业绩。2023年公司收入51.6亿元，同比增长20.3%； 总市值（亿港元） 44.76 毛利率67.1%，同比增长0.1pct，全年经调净利润2091万元，经调净利率0.4%， 相关研究 扭亏为盈。 [《Ta利b润le_拐R点e已po至rtI，nf探o]索 轻资产运营方式》 点评：开店弥补单店下滑，高线城市持续加密。2023 年奈雪的茶直营店收入 46.9 2023.10.09 亿元，同比增长18.2%。①单店：日销约1.0万元，同比下降14.7%，其中客单价 29.6元，同比下降13.7%；日均单量344单，同比下降1.1%。②门店：2023 ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [【Table_T广itle] 发批零社服&海外】奈雪的茶 [公Tab司le_I评nves级t] 增持 当前价格 2.73港元 （02150.HK） 合理价值 3.04港元 前次评级 增持 单店模型优化，轻资产模式有望加速拓店 报告日期 2024-04-03 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  公司发布23年业绩：23年全年实现营业收入51.6亿元，同增20.3%； 2% 04/23 06/23 08/23 09/23 11/23 01/24 03/24 -13% 实现归母净利润1322.4万元，扭亏为盈（22年亏损4.7亿元）；经调 -28% 整净利润为2091.2万元，扭亏为盈（22年亏损4.6亿元）。 -42%  单店日销量价均有所承压。据公司财报，23年奈雪的茶直营店日均订 -57% 单量为 344.3 单，同比减少 1.1%；每笔订单平均销售额为 29.6 元， -72% 奈雪的茶 恒生指数 同比下滑13.7%，我们预计主要与新开门店较多、促销活动增加有关； 量价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth has slowed down, primarily due to adjustments in price range and product structure, leading to pressure on both volume and price. However, the bottled beverage business is experiencing rapid growth and is expected to become a new breakthrough area for the company. Profitability is being enhanced through continued cost control at both store and headquarters levels, indicating potential for further improvement [4]. - For the fiscal year 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.16 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.13 billion RMB, marking a return to profitability. The revenue from bottled beverages reached 0.27 billion RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 69.8% [4]. - The company plans to slow down the opening of new direct-operated stores in 2024 while accelerating franchise store openings. As of the end of 2023, there were 1,574 direct-operated stores, with a net increase of 506 stores [4]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.87 billion RMB, 6.58 billion RMB, and 7.33 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 12.1%, and 11.4% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.65 billion RMB, 1.63 billion RMB, and 2.75 billion RMB for the same years, with net profit margins of 1.1%, 2.5%, and 3.8% respectively [4][5]. - The operating profit margin for 2023 was 9.7%, with an expected increase to 12.3% in 2024 [5]. - The average sales value per order in 2023 was 29.6 RMB, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year, attributed to changes in product pricing and structure [4].

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|消费者服务II 证券研究报告 奈雪的茶(2150.HK)公司点评报告 2024年04月03日 [Tab年le_T度itle净] 利扭亏为盈，加盟提升拓店空间 [Table_Inves 增t] 持|维持 ——奈雪的茶(2150.HK) 2023年年度业绩点评 [事Ta件ble：_S ummary] [[基TTaa本bbll数ee__据BTaa rsgee]t Price] 公司发布2023年全年业绩。 52周最高/最低价（港币）：9 .1 / 2.4 港股流通股（百万股）： 1715.13 点评： 港股总股本（百万股）： 1715.13  全年经调整净利润实现扭亏为盈，奈雪的茶单店模型持续优化 流通市值（百万港币）： 4,562.24 2023 年，公司实现营业收入 51.64 亿元，同比增长 20.33%；全年经调整 总市值（百万港币）： 4,526.24 净利润为0.21亿元，较前一年实现扭亏为盈。分业务线看，现制茶饮业务 [[相TTaa关bbll研ee__究PDioc报cQR告ueop toe]r t] 全年实现收入37.77亿，同比增长20.46%，收入占 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 2023 年度业绩公告点评：同店承压，24 年加 2024 年 04月 01日 盟模式潜力可期 证券分析师 孙瑜 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 股价走势 营业总收入（百万元） 4,292 5,164 6,024 7,356 8,095 同比 -0.12% 20.33% 16.65% 22.12% 10.04% 奈雪的茶 恒生指数 归母净利润（百万元） -475.81 11.17 102.78 216.08 282.80 -2% -9% -16% 同比 89.48% 102.35% 820.51% 110.23% 30.88% -23% -30% -37% EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） -0.28 0.01 0.06 0.13 0.16 -44% -51% P/E（现价&最新摊薄） - 377.04 40.96 19.48 14.89 --- 765 258 %%% [关Ta键 ...

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