NAYUKI(02150)

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奈雪的茶 成都策略会小范围交流纪要
2024-05-14 12:48
时间:2024年5月9日 嘉宾:陆总 纪要核心要点 1.经营情况:24年一季度订单量同比下降30%,客单价下降十几个点,去除23年一季度高基数影响依旧疲软,没有明 显向上或向下的迹象。 2.市场竞争:行业早就是充分竞争,不担心新上市竞对加剧竞争环境,预计头部品牌有集中机会,没有大规模降价的 紧迫性。 3.未来增长:增长点主要来自门槛降低后加盟店增长和海外扩张,期待国内需求修复。 纪要正文 一、经营情况: 从2021年8月开始,尽管疫情相对稳定,但收入下滑非常快。22 年当然都很差。23年一季度相对乐观,因为看到恢复 速度非常快,一直到 4 月份表现都是很好的,五一之后市场持续疲软,到现在24 年的 5 月份没有变得更烂,但也没 有好转迹象。2024年1-5月市场很疲软,也有去年高基数影响,抛去以后还是不行。未来走势不好说,向上向下都没 有明显痕迹。 二、未来展望: 公司过去节流已经做的很多了:自动化改造减少了全职员工,转而使用兼职员工;降低了培训需求和损耗,优化了供 应链管理等 接下来要做的是开源: ① 加盟商方面:下线城市的加盟是一个新增长点,目标是今年开设数百至1000家加盟店(实际可能无法达到),目 前 ...
奈雪的茶(02150) - 2023 - 年度财报
2024-04-29 09:16
Share Incentive and Option Plans - The company's 2020 Share Incentive Plan was approved and adopted on May 15, 2020[5] - The 2020 Share Option Plan was also approved and adopted on May 15, 2020[5] - The Equity Incentive Plans include the 2020 Share Option Plan and the 2020 Share Incentive Plan[6] - The Group adopted the 2020 Share Option Plan and the 2020 Share Incentive Plan to reward employees, directors, and senior management[107] Annual General Meeting and Corporate Governance - The Annual General Meeting (AGM) is proposed to be held on June 28, 2024[5] - The company's shares are listed and traded on the Stock Exchange[6] - The company's listing date on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was June 30, 2021[7] - The company's shares were listed on the Stock Exchange on June 30, 2021, and it operates Nayuki teahouses, a leading premium modern teahouse chain in China[155] - The company's executive directors have service agreements with an initial term of three years, while non-executive and independent non-executive directors have service contracts/letters of appointment with the same initial term[168] - Independent non-executive directors receive an annual remuneration of HK$120,000[168] Subsidiaries and Investments - Beijing Tiantu Xingbei Investment Center was established on June 26, 2015[5] - Chengdu Tiantu Tiantou Dongfeng Equity Investment Fund Center was established on November 17, 2016[5] - The company was incorporated in the Cayman Islands on September 5, 2019[6] - Shenzhen Fucheng Technology Co., Ltd. is a connected person of the company[6] - Linxin Group Limited, a controlling shareholder, was incorporated in the BVI on December 29, 2020[7] - Linxin Holdings Limited, another controlling shareholder, was incorporated in the BVI on September 5, 2019[7] - Linxin International Limited, a controlling shareholder, was incorporated in the BVI on December 29, 2020[7] - Linxin Trust, an irrevocable discretionary trust, was established in Guernsey on December 30, 2020, with Linxin Holdings as the beneficiary[7] - Shenzhen Pindao Group Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, was incorporated in the PRC on December 17, 2019[8] - Shenzhen Pindao Food & Beverage Management Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, was incorporated in the PRC on May 12, 2014[8] - Tiantu Dongfeng, a limited partnership, was established under the laws of the PRC on July 25, 2017[9] - Tiantu Xingpeng, a limited partnership, was established under the laws of the PRC on December 29, 2017[9] - The Group invested in Shanghai Chatian, the operator of the "LELECHA" brand, to enhance brand diversity and reduce store expansion and operation costs[105] - The Group received approval from the State Administration for Market Regulation for the Shanghai Chatian investment, with all completion conditions satisfied by June 2, 2023[105] Financial Performance and Metrics - Revenue for 2023 increased to RMB 5,164,056 thousand, up 20.3% from RMB 4,291,586 thousand in 2022[14] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 was RMB 20,912 thousand, compared to an adjusted net loss of RMB 461,331 thousand in 2022[14] - Cost of materials in 2023 was RMB 1,699,442 thousand, a 20% increase from RMB 1,416,094 thousand in 2022[14] - Staff costs in 2023 were RMB 1,403,868 thousand, a 3.1% increase from RMB 1,362,115 thousand in 2022[14] - Delivery service fees in 2023 were RMB 392,638 thousand, a 3.2% increase from RMB 380,520 thousand in 2022[14] - Advertising and promotion expenses in 2023 were RMB 165,804 thousand, a 16% increase from RMB 142,933 thousand in 2022[14] - Logistics and storage fees in 2023 were RMB 140,833 thousand, a 14.4% increase from RMB 123,112 thousand in 2022[14] - Utilities expenses in 2023 were RMB 143,899 thousand, a 26.7% increase from RMB 113,556 thousand in 2022[14] - Other income in 2023 was RMB 186,490 thousand, a 49.2% increase from RMB 124,950 thousand in 2022[14] - Adjusted net profit margin for 2023 was 0.4%, compared to an adjusted net loss margin of 10.7% in 2022[14] - Revenue increased by 20.3% from RMB4,291.6 million in 2022 to RMB5,164.1 million in 2023[24] - Adjusted net profit changed from a loss of RMB461.3 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB20.9 million in 2023[24] - Store-level operating profit for Nayuki self-operated stores increased by 76.3% to RMB828.7 million in 2023[24] - Store-level operating profit margin for Nayuki self-operated stores increased by 5.9 percentage points to 17.7% in 2023[24] - Net cash generated from operating activities increased by 170.2% from RMB306.6 million in 2022 to RMB828.5 million in 2023[24] - Nayuki self-operated stores revenue increased to RMB 4,691,501 thousand in 2023, up from RMB 3,969,306 thousand in 2022, representing a growth of 18.2%[28] - Ready-to-drink beverage revenue grew significantly to RMB 266,619 thousand in 2023, a 69.8% increase from RMB 157,031 thousand in 2022[28] - Store-level operating profit margin for Nayuki self-operated stores improved to 17.7% in 2023, compared to 11.8% in 2022[28] - Average sales value per order at Nayuki self-operated stores decreased to RMB 29.6 in 2023 from RMB 34.3 in 2022[32] - Average orders per teahouse per day slightly declined to 344.3 in 2023 from 348.2 in 2022[32] - Freshly-made tea drinks accounted for 73.1% of total revenue in 2023, with a revenue of RMB 3,776,943 thousand[37] - Baked goods revenue decreased to RMB 707,662 thousand in 2023, down 8.8% from RMB 775,672 thousand in 2022[37] - Pickup orders revenue increased to RMB 2,044,667 thousand in 2023, a 49.0% rise from RMB 1,372,624 thousand in 2022[42] - Delivery orders revenue grew to RMB 1,966,639 thousand in 2023, up 7.1% from RMB 1,836,938 thousand in 2022[42] - The company's registered membership reached 80.5 million, with monthly active members totaling 4.7 million and a monthly repurchase rate of 23.9%[46] - In 2023, 35.5% of the company's direct-operated store revenue came from third-party delivery platforms, while 6.4% came from the company's own delivery platform[45] - The average daily sales per teahouse in Tier 1 cities was RMB 12,700, with a store-level operating profit margin of 19.6%[56] - In Shenzhen, the company's self-operated stores achieved an average daily sales of RMB 14,600 and a store-level operating profit margin of 23.2%[55] - The company's self-operated stores in Xi'an had the highest store-level operating profit margin at 24.7%[55] - The company's same-store sales in Shenzhen increased from RMB 16,000 in 2022 to RMB 17,400 in 2023[59] - The store-level operating profit margin for same-stores in Xi'an rose from 18.4% in 2022 to 25.0% in 2023[59] - Number of Type-I Teahouses reached 1,105 with an average daily sales per store of RMB 11,100 and a store-level operating profit margin of 18.3%[65] - Number of Type-II Teahouses reached 288 with an average daily sales per store of RMB 8,500 and a store-level operating profit margin of 20.4%[65] - Labour cost ratio decreased from 23.5% in 2022 to 20.3% in 2023, while rent cost ratio decreased from 15.5% to 14.5%[71] - Delivery order fee ratio decreased from 9.4% in 2022 to 8.2% in 2023[71] - Store-level operating profit margin increased from 11.9% in 2022 to 17.7% in 2023[71] - Revenue for 2023 increased by 20.3% to RMB 5,164.1 million compared to RMB 4,291.6 million in 2022[75] - Other income increased to RMB 186.5 million in 2023 from RMB 125.0 million in 2022, primarily due to higher interest income from term deposits[75] - The company held cash and deposits totaling RMB 2,983.5 million as of December 31, 2023, with no interest-bearing borrowings[75] - Material costs increased by 20.0% to RMB1,699.4 million, representing 32.9% of total revenue[77] - Staff costs decreased to 27.2% of total revenue, amounting to RMB1,403.9 million, due to improved HR efficiency[77] - Depreciation of right-of-use assets decreased to 8.0% of total revenue, amounting to RMB411.6 million, due to lower rental unit prices and reduced leased area for new stores[78] - Other rentals and related expenses increased to 5.9% of total revenue, amounting to RMB306.3 million, due to more variable lease payments in new contracts[78] - Advertising and promotion expenses amounted to RMB165.8 million, representing 3.2% of total revenue[80] - Delivery service fees decreased to 7.6% of total revenue, amounting to RMB392.6 million, due to a lower proportion of delivery orders post-COVID-19[81] - Utilities expenses increased to 2.8% of total revenue, amounting to RMB143.9 million[82] - Logistic and storage fees amounted to RMB140.8 million, representing 2.7% of total revenue[83] - Logistics and storage fees for the Group amounted to RMB 140.8 million, accounting for 2.7% of the Group's total revenue during the Reporting Period (2022: RMB 123.1 million, 2.9% of revenue)[87] - Finance costs of the Group amounted to RMB 65.9 million, representing 1.3% of the Group's total revenue during the Reporting Period (2022: RMB 80.3 million, 1.8% of revenue)[88][89] - Interest on lease liabilities accounted for RMB 64.8 million (1.3% of revenue) in 2023, compared to RMB 79.2 million (1.8% of revenue) in 2022[90] - Other expenses of the Group amounted to RMB 261.3 million, representing 5.1% of the Group's total revenue during the Reporting Period (2022: RMB 249.6 million, 5.8% of revenue)[91][92] - Administrative expenses increased to RMB 150.6 million (2.9% of revenue) in 2023 from RMB 142.0 million (3.3% of revenue) in 2022[94] - Travelling and business development expenses rose to RMB 49.8 million (1.0% of revenue) in 2023 from RMB 40.8 million (1.0% of revenue) in 2022[94] - The Group's income tax benefits amounted to RMB 5.1 million for the Reporting Period, significantly lower than the RMB 40.7 million in 2022[95][97] - The Group reported a net profit of RMB 11.2 million for 2023, compared to a net loss of RMB 475.8 million in 2022[98] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS measure) for 2023 was RMB 20.9 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 0.4% (2022: RMB -461.3 million, -10.7% margin)[98] - Total cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB444.3 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB1,387.5 million as of December 31, 2022[99] - Total term deposits and certificates of deposit increased to RMB2,539.1 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB2,088.8 million as of December 31, 2022[99] - Right-of-use assets increased to RMB1,609.2 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB1,273.3 million as of December 31, 2022, in line with store growth[99] - Property and equipment increased to RMB1,419.2 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB1,024.1 million as of December 31, 2022, due to store expansion[101] - Inventories turnover days decreased from 38.7 days in 2022 to 29.4 days in the reporting period[101] - Trade and other receivables decreased to RMB250.4 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB376.5 million as of December 31, 2022[101] - Trade and other payables increased to RMB635.8 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB478.5 million as of December 31, 2022, due to higher raw material and property-related payables[101] - Gearing ratio increased to 36.0% as of December 31, 2023, from 31.3% as of December 31, 2022[102] - Current ratio decreased to 2.27 times as of December 31, 2023, from 3.30 times as of December 31, 2022[102] - Capital expenditures for the reporting period amounted to approximately RMB 540.9 million, primarily for equipment purchases and leasehold improvements[104] - The company's distributable reserves as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 5,986,012,000, compared to RMB 5,757,296,000 as of December 31, 2022[163] - The company did not recommend the payment of any final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2023[158][159] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 506 new Nayuki self-operated stores in 2023, bringing the total to 1,574 stores across 111 cities[20][22] - The company launched its franchise business in July 2023, with approximately 200 franchise stores opened by February 2024[24] - The company opened its first store in Thailand at the end of 2023 and plans to expand further in overseas markets[24] - The company added a net increase of 506 self-operated stores in 2023, bringing the total to 1,574 stores across 111 cities[49] - The number of Type-I teahouses in Tier 1 cities increased from 309 in 2022 to 398 in 2023[50] - The number of Type-II teahouses in Tier 1 cities grew from 64 in 2022 to 144 in 2023[51] - The company plans to optimize franchisee requirements with more flexible store types and lower initial investment costs in 2024[69] - The company expects to further optimize middle and back-office labor costs to improve efficiency and profitability in 2024[70] Membership and Customer Engagement - Nayuki Membership Program reached 80.5 million registered members by December 31, 2023, with 4.7 million monthly active members and a 23.9% monthly repurchase rate[44] - The company's registered membership reached 80.5 million, with monthly active members totaling 4.7 million and a monthly repurchase rate of 23.9%[46] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) - The company's environmental policies and performance are outlined in the 2023 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Report, which will be published on the company's website and the HKEXnews website[160] - The company made charitable donations totaling approximately RMB 3.4 million during the reporting period[198] Legal and Compliance - The company was not involved in any material legal proceedings during the reporting period[198] - The company has disclosed significant related party transactions in the comprehensive financial statements, Note 30 of the annual report[199] - The company has complied with the disclosure requirements of Chapter 14A of the Listing Rules and disclosed related party transactions in the annual report[199] - No management or administrative contracts were signed or existed for the entire business or any part of it during the reporting period[200] Employee Management and Training - The Group had 7,199 full-time employees as of December 31, 2023, with 1,662 working in headquarters and regional offices, and the remainder as in-store staff[107] - The Group launched an employee retention initiative, incorporating retention rate as a key performance metric for teahouses[107] - The Group offers competitive remuneration and benefits, including social security plans and financial rewards, to motivate employees[107] - The Group emphasizes employee training, including a one-month in-store training for new operational staff and a vanguard program to develop future teahouse managers[108] - The company participates in a defined contribution basic pension insurance in China's social insurance system, with contributions based on government-stipulated benchmarks and rates[173] - The company operates a Mandatory Provident Fund Scheme in Hong Kong, with contributions vesting immediately and no forfeited contributions[174] Capital and Funding - The company raised approximately HK$4,842.4 million from its global offering, with 70% (HK$3,389.8
“新茶饮第二股”加时赛进入尾声,茶百道或成赢家
3 6 Ke· 2024-04-19 02:28
随着港交所公告四川百茶百道实业股份有限公司 (以下简称"茶百道")于4月15日开启招股,"新茶饮第二股"之争终于迎来定局. 按照港交所公告内容,茶百道拟发行!.48亿股股票,发行价为每股17.50港元,至4月18日结束,并计划将于4月23日正式以"2555"为股票代码在港交所主 板挂牌上市。 Sichuan Baicha Baidao Ind 四川百茶百道實業股份有限公司 47,763,400 股H股(視乎超额配段權 776,400股H股(可予重新加费 國際發售股份數目 132.987,000 股H股(可平重新調整及 每股H股17.50港元,另加1.0% 0565% 聯交所交易費( 時以港元繳足 · 多繳股數可予 球值 無股日股人民幣0.1元 股份代號 獨家保蘭人及獨家整體協調, 在这场"新茶饮第二股"加时赛中,茶百道实现反超。 01、一年赚12亿,茶百道靠什么? 茶百道运营情况 #营收 #爆品 # 规模 核心观点: 茶百道的净利润年复合增长率也达到21.6% 两年新增近3000家,茶百道上升至行业第三 2、 爆品表现亮眼,主要营收靠为加盟商供货 今年1月2日,蜜雪冰城和古茗在同一天向港交所递交招股书,三大品 ...
头部企业净利润下滑近40%,供应链的苦日子才刚开始
3 6 Ke· 2024-04-18 23:47
刚上市一年,业绩就"大变脸",供应链企业的日子似乎越来越难过了。 据财报数据,2023年,田野股份(832023.BJ)实现总营收4.6亿元,同比下降2.33%;净利润3337.81万元,同比下降37.69%。 对此,田野股份表示,净利下降主要原因为下游新茶饮行业增速放缓、竞争加剧,客户价格敏感度提高,其压降毛利率应对市场竞争。 事实上,田野股份的毛利率已经连续3年下滑。从2021年的29.16%到2022年的28.38%,再到2023年的21.68%,总体下滑7.48%。 2023年2月,田野股份在北交所上市,产品包括原料果汁、速冻果蔬、鲜果等,是茶百道、奈雪的茶、一点点和沪上阿姨等品牌的供应商。 随着新茶饮行业增速放缓,品牌之间贴身肉搏加剧,对供应商也提出了更高的要求。尤其是2023年以来,新茶饮品牌纷纷加注供应链,品牌与上游供应商 之间的争夺战已然打响。 在此背景下,与田野股份有着相似境遇的供应商并不少。2023年底,2家新茶饮供应商撤回了上市申请。已经成功上市的供应商,也面临着毛利下滑、业 绩承压的现状。 01 产品售价降低,多家供应商毛利下滑 德馨食品与鲜活饮品在2023年底相继撤回上市申请。 据德 ...
奈雪的茶(02150):第一季度净新增23间奈雪的茶直营门店
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2024-04-18 09:57
智通财经APP讯,奈雪的茶(02150)发布公告,在截至2024年3月31日止三个月季度内,集团取得净新增 23间奈雪的茶直营门店,关停28间奈雪的茶直营门店。截至2024年3月31日,集团共经营1597间奈雪的 茶直营门店,另有205间奈雪的茶加盟门店,主要集中在中、低线城市。 受气温较低等因素影响,本季度为集团业务淡季,集团并未看到需求快速恢复的迹象。尽管如此,"奈 雪八香"系列仍然取得了不错的表现。另外,2023年初,受到疫情结束及公共卫生管控措施放松等因素 影响,门店表现出色。集团预计,这一基数影响将至少持续至2024年4月。加盟业务方面,2024年2月, 集团优化了对加盟商的要求,门店店型更灵活,面积要求有所下降,单店投资金额也下降到人民币58万 元。这将帮助降低加盟商的资金压力,助力加盟业务持续增长。 ...
喜茶的乱拳没打中霸王茶姬
投资界· 2024-04-18 08:19
新茶饮知名品牌喜茶近期的"骚"操作算不上少,可要说操作效果,却是喜忧参半。 3月24日,喜茶就与《光与夜之恋》联名活动周边被倒卖一事公布了相关事件的调查进度,宣布已解聘私自泄密员工。紧接着第二天,喜茶就官宣了邀请 著名健身博主帕梅拉·莱孚(Pamela Reif)担任喜茶2024年"健康推荐官",围绕"轻负担、真健康",推荐了11款茶饮产品。好事坏事一桩接一桩,给人一种 匆忙又应接不暇的感觉。 相比之下,作为喜茶*竞争对手之一的霸王茶姬,应对"茶饮健康化"时的步调则显得有条不紊。先是为科学控糖推出GI值标识;随后又为新品"醒时春 山"请到刘畊宏叫板喜茶的推广官帕姐。 图源喜茶、霸王茶姬官方微博 这边的喜茶看起来略显慌张,那边的霸王茶姬却是带着几分若有似无的淡定,真相果真如此吗?喜茶的一顿操作猛如虎,为什么效果并不如人意?对抗霸 王茶姬,喜茶反击的胜负手究竟在哪里呢? 其人之道,还不了其人之身 喜茶一直是新茶饮界的龙头。 出道即*,这样的评价用在喜茶身上并不为过。喜茶是新茶饮界排队买奶茶的领军人物,当年大排长龙、托黄牛100块买一杯的场景曾经轰动朋友圈。 即便是排队的风头逐渐褪去,喜茶依然稳坐全国连锁新茶饮品牌 ...
开放加盟,门店加速扩张
安信国际证券· 2024-04-14 16:00
2024 年 4 月 12 日 公司动态 奈雪的茶(2150.HK) 证券研究报告 食品饮料 开放加盟,门店加速扩张 投资评级: Xx 买入 xx 奈雪的茶2023年营业收入为51.6亿,同比增长20%,净利润为1120万元,去年同 期亏损4.75亿。公司在高线城市不断加密,直营门店数达1574家,净新增506家。 目标价格: 3.7 元 同时公司开放加盟,截止23年底已有81家,未来加盟门店将成为扩张的主要方式。 现价(2024-4-11): 2.67港元 考虑公司扩张模式由直营转型加盟,我们下调了 24/25/26 年净利润分别至 1.3/2.2/2.7亿人民币,对应EPS为0.09/0.14/0.18港元。维持“买入”评级,下 调目标价至3.7港元,较当前股价有39%的上涨空间 总市值(百万港元) 4,647.99 报告摘要 流通市值(百万港元) 4,647.99 直营门店在高线城市持续加密。23年底公司直营门店总数达1574家,同比22年末 总股本(百万股) 1,715.13 净新增506家。其中,一线/新一线/二线/其他城市门店数各为542/552/328/152家, 流通股本(百万股) 1,715 ...
23H2业绩略承压,关注加盟店拓展及盈利能力改善
Tianfeng Securities· 2024-04-07 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a target price of 2.53 HKD, maintaining the current rating [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.16 billion HKD for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.13 billion HKD, marking a turnaround from losses, with adjusted profit at 0.21 billion HKD, corresponding to a net profit margin of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2 percentage points [1]. - The company opened a net of 506 new tea shops in 2023, with a breakdown of 334 first-category and 172 second-category tea shops, continuing to expand its network in high-tier cities [1]. - The average daily sales per tea shop in 2023 were 344 orders, remaining stable year-on-year, with an average sales value of 29.6 HKD per order, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve profits of 1.3 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.5 billion HKD in 2024-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 22, and 16 times respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.16 billion HKD, with a breakdown of 2.59 billion HKD in the first half (up 26.8% year-on-year) and 2.57 billion HKD in the second half (up 14.4% year-on-year). The net profit for the first half was 0.66 billion HKD, while the second half saw a loss of 0.53 billion HKD [1]. - The company’s operating profit margin for tea shops was 17.7%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, with stable cost ratios across various categories [1]. Store Expansion - The total number of tea shops reached 1,574 by the end of 2023, with 81 franchise stores opened by the end of the year and approximately 200 franchise stores operational by the end of February 2024 [1]. Cost Structure - The cost structure showed that raw material costs accounted for 32.9% of total costs, employee costs for 27.2%, and rental expenses decreased due to improved negotiation capabilities and reduced new store sizes [1].
Franchising and costs cutting are the keys
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-04-06 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating on Nayuki (2150 HK) but cuts the target price to HK$ 3.43 [2][4] Core View - The report highlights that franchising and cost-cutting are key to Nayuki's strategy, despite a cautious outlook on the catering sector due to weakening macro demand and increased competition [2] - Nayuki's high cash level (over 75% of its market cap) and potential income from franchising are key reasons for the BUY rating [2] - The report expects a mixed FY24E outlook with pressure on topline growth but some room for margin improvement [2] Store Expansion and Performance - Nayuki's SSSG for Jan/Feb/Mar 2024 were -29%/-34%/-30%, worse than the 7% drop in 2H23, driven by a drop in both ASP and volume [2] - The store expansion plan for FY24E is conservative, with ~200 new self-operated stores and ~150 closures, resulting in a net increase of only a handful of stores [2] - For franchising, around 80 stores were opened in FY23, and the target for FY24E is 200-400 franchised stores, with a long-term goal of 2,000-3,000 new stores [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth for FY24E is forecasted at 14%, driven by a 3% increase in store counts (excluding franchise), a 6% increase in sales per store, and ramp-up of RTD and franchising business [2] - Net profit margin for FY24E is expected to improve to around 1.1%, supported by stable GP margin, cost control, and cautious investment in the RTD business [2] - The report cuts FY24E/25E net profit by 87%/72% due to slower self-operated store expansion and falling sales per store [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Nayuki is currently trading at 0.7x FY24E P/S and 20x FY25E P/E, with a target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31.3% upside from the current price of HK$ 2.61 [2][4] - The valuation method has been changed from 20x FY24E P/E to 1.0x FY24E P/S, applying a ~20% discount to peers' average of 1.2x [2] Historical Performance - FY23 revenue increased by 20% YoY to RMB 5.2bn, with net profit turning positive to RMB 13mn, but NP margin remained low at 0.3% [6] - In 2H23, sales growth slowed to 14%, and NP margin turned negative to -2.1%, driven by a sharp drop in ASP and volume [6] Earnings Revision - The report significantly revises down FY24E revenue and net profit estimates, with revenue now forecasted at RMB 5,877mn (-28.2% from previous estimates) and net profit at RMB 63.7mn (-86.9% from previous estimates) [7] Peer Comparison - Nayuki's valuation is compared to peers in the Greater China catering sector, with a 12-month target price of HK$ 3.43, representing a 31% upside [12]
全年实现扭亏为盈,轻资产运营加速发展
Haitong Securities· 2024-04-04 16:00
[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易 证券研究报告 奈雪的茶(2150)公司研究报告 2024年04月03日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 全年实现扭亏为盈,轻资产运营加速发展 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 4[T月ab3l日e_收S盘to价ck(In港fo元] ) 2.61 投资要点: 52周股价波动(港元) 2.40-9.11 总股本/流通股(亿股) 17.15/3.35 事件:奈雪的茶发布2023全年业绩。2023年公司收入51.6亿元,同比增长20.3%; 总市值(亿港元) 44.76 毛利率67.1%,同比增长0.1pct,全年经调净利润2091万元,经调净利率0.4%, 相关研究 扭亏为盈。 [《Ta利b润le_拐R点e已po至rtI,nf探o]索 轻资产运营方式》 点评:开店弥补单店下滑,高线城市持续加密。2023 年奈雪的茶直营店收入 46.9 2023.10.09 亿元,同比增长18.2%。①单店:日销约1.0万元,同比下降14.7%,其中客单价 29.6元,同比下降13.7%;日均单量344单,同比下降1.1%。②门店:2023 ...