Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 917.29 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 13.22 million yuan in 2023 [7] - The company is actively exploring new business models and has seen a significant increase in franchise operations, with 345 franchise stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 264 stores [7] - The company aims to focus on a health-oriented strategy and explore new store formats, such as "Green stores," in 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 5.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.33% [1] - The forecast for total revenue is adjusted to 5.182 billion yuan for 2025 and 5.268 billion yuan for 2026, with expected growth rates of 5.29% and 1.66% respectively [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to a loss of 127.96 million yuan, with a projected recovery to a profit of 5.23 million yuan in 2026 and 56.48 million yuan in 2027 [7] - The company’s average customer transaction value decreased by 9.8% to 26.7 yuan, and the average daily order volume per store fell by 21.4% to 270.5 orders [7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1.04 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 1.776 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 0.45, indicating the stock is trading below its book value [5] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.48%, suggesting a moderate level of leverage [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the innovative applications of tea and the introduction of a new product by Nayuki Tea, "Crushed Black Pearl Matcha," which combines black sugar pearls with matcha milk to create a unique ice slush texture, praised by consumers as "liquid Gelato" [1][2][3] Product Innovation - Nayuki Tea has launched the "Crushed Black Pearl Matcha," which mixes black sugar pearls, matcha milk, and ice to create a slush-like texture, transforming traditional large pearls into "Amber Crushed Diamonds" that are easier to consume while maintaining the classic flavor [2][3] - The product aims to enhance consumer experience without completely overturning traditional perceptions, similar to Starbucks' adaptation of classic beverages into new textures [4] Ingredient Quality - The new series utilizes Zhejiang Jing Mountain matcha, which contains 1.353% total theanine per 100g of matcha powder, showcasing Nayuki's deep understanding of this superfood [5] - The matcha undergoes a meticulous production process, including seven steps of processing and six separation techniques to ensure purity and quality [5] Market Performance - The "Crushed Black Pearl Matcha" achieved the top sales position nationwide on its launch day, with high visual appeal contributing to its popularity on social media platforms, generating over 3 million discussions [6] Strategic Vision - Nayuki's "Green Plan" aims to promote health-oriented products, with the Jing Mountain matcha being the seventh superfood application, following other health-focused ingredients from various regions [7] - The Chinese new-style tea beverage market is projected to reach 374.93 billion yuan by 2025, with the health tea market expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Nayuki [7]

Group 1: New Product Launches - Heytea launched a limited-time product "Snowy Yak Milk Tea" nationwide, inspired by Tibetan sweet tea, combining yak milk with red tea and barley [1] - The product was first introduced in Tibet in September 2024 and quickly gained popularity, with significant sales during the National Day holiday [1] - Following consumer demand, Heytea collaborated with a high-end lifestyle brand to host tea events in multiple cities, expanding the product's reach [1] Group 2: Tea Industry Overview - The China Tea Circulation Association reported that the total scale of the tea industry chain in China has reached approximately 1.1 trillion yuan [2] - Green tea production is projected to grow by 6.53% in 2024, maintaining its leading position, followed by black tea and oolong tea [2] Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - Nayuki Tea reported a net loss of 919 million yuan for 2024, with revenue declining by 4.7% to 4.921 billion yuan [3] - The company's adjusted net profit shifted from a profit of 20.9 million yuan in 2023 to a loss in 2024, with cash flow from operating activities dropping by 75.7% [3] - Despite challenges, Nayuki Tea plans to focus on a green health strategy to enhance brand strength and consumer recognition in 2025 [3] Group 4: Coffee Industry Developments - Brazil's coffee production has been significantly affected by adverse weather, leading to a 26% average reduction in yield in the Serra do Sul region [5] - Coffee prices in Brazil have surged by nearly 40% year-on-year due to reduced production, with ground coffee prices increasing by 50.35% over the past year [5] - The global coffee price has risen by 38.8% in 2024, impacting the collaboration model between international buyers and Brazilian coffee exporters [6] Group 5: Coffee Quality and Export Growth - Yunnan coffee's specialty rate has increased from 8% in 2021 to 31.6% in 2024, reflecting improvements in cultivation and processing [8][9] - Yunnan coffee exports reached 32,500 tons in 2024, a 358% increase year-on-year, primarily to Germany, the Netherlands, and the USA [9] - Starbucks announced that every cup of its classic espresso in mainland China contains Yunnan coffee beans, highlighting the quality and stability of Yunnan coffee [9]

Core Insights - Nayuki's Tea reported a revenue of 4.921 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.7% [1] - The company experienced an adjusted net loss of 919 million yuan, contrasting sharply with a profit of 20.9 million yuan in 2023 [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to a sluggish consumer market, changing customer consumption habits, and intensified industry competition [1] Store Performance - In 2024, Nayuki's Tea closed 121 direct-operated stores, reducing the total from 1,574 in 2023 to 1,453 [2] - The average sales value per order decreased from 29.6 yuan to 26.7 yuan, and the average daily order volume per store fell from 344.3 to 270.5 [2] - The total number of stores increased to 1,798, with 1,453 direct-operated and 345 franchise stores [1][2] Financial Metrics - The net cash generated from operating activities plummeted by 75.7%, down to 202 million yuan [2] - Material costs as a percentage of total revenue rose from 32.9% to 36.8%, while employee costs increased from 27.2% to 29.2%, indicating pressure on cost control [2] - The company reported a total cash and deposits of 2.694 billion yuan, indicating sufficient liquidity for business adjustments and stable development [2] Membership and Engagement - The registered membership reached approximately 103 million, with an increase of 10.5 million from the previous year [2] - Monthly active members grew to 4.8 million, and the monthly repurchase rate improved to 24% [2]

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the total revenue decreased by 4.7% to RMB 4,921.2 million from RMB 5,164.1 million in 2023[4]. - Adjusted net loss for 2024 was RMB 918.7 million, a significant decline from a profit of RMB 20.9 million in 2023[4]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 4,921.2 million, a decrease of approximately 4.7% compared to RMB 5,164.1 million in 2023[28]. - The total comprehensive loss for the year was RMB (893,209) thousand, compared to a total comprehensive income of RMB 41,442 thousand in 2023[73]. - The company reported a basic and diluted loss per share of RMB (0.54) for 2024, compared to earnings per share of RMB 0.01 in 2023[72]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 2,124,388,000 for the year ending December 31, 2024, compared to a profit of RMB 122,083,000 in 2023[117]. - The comprehensive loss for the year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 2,045,836,000, compared to a comprehensive income of RMB 218,970,000 in 2023[117]. Revenue Sources - The revenue from directly operated stores fell by 6.3% to RMB 4,158.4 million, accounting for 84.5% of total revenue[7]. - Revenue from freshly made tea sales was RMB 3,388,398,000, down from RMB 3,776,943,000 in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 10.3%[82]. - The revenue from bottled beverages increased by 10.0% to RMB 293.3 million, representing 6.0% of total revenue[8]. - The franchise business expanded from 81 to 345 stores, contributing a small portion of total revenue[14]. Membership and Customer Engagement - As of December 31, 2024, the registered membership reached approximately 102.8 million, with monthly active members totaling about 4.8 million and a monthly repurchase rate of 24.0%[12]. - Average daily order volume per tea shop dropped from 344.3 in 2023 to 270.5 in 2024[17]. - Self-pickup orders increased to 1,894,447 in 2024, representing 45.5% of total orders, up from 43.6% in 2023[18]. Operational Adjustments - The company plans to explore new store formats to adapt to different consumer scenarios and enhance market share[26]. - The company aims to enhance supply chain management and optimize operational costs at the headquarters level[27]. - The company has implemented a cautious strategy for business expansion due to a lack of significant recovery in consumer demand, extending the expected timeline for utilizing the proceeds[68]. Costs and Expenses - Material costs amounted to RMB 1,809.0 million, representing 36.8% of total revenue, an increase from RMB 1,699.4 million and 32.9% in 2023, driven by new franchise operations and a commitment to high-quality raw materials[31]. - Employee costs were RMB 1,434.6 million, accounting for 29.2% of total revenue, up from RMB 1,403.9 million and 27.2% in 2023, influenced by increased operating days despite a reduction in direct-operated store numbers[32]. - Advertising and promotional expenses increased to RMB 246.0 million, accounting for 5.0% of total revenue, up from RMB 165.8 million and 3.2% in 2023, as the company intensified marketing efforts[36]. Assets and Liabilities - The company's total assets decreased from RMB 7,540,364 thousand in 2023 to RMB 6,165,150 thousand in 2024, reflecting a reduction of approximately 18.2%[74]. - Current liabilities decreased from RMB 1,351,046 thousand in 2023 to RMB 1,152,683 thousand in 2024, a reduction of approximately 14.7%[75]. - The group's trade and other payables decreased from RMB 635.8 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 528.5 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to a reduction in payables to suppliers[54]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - The cash generated from operating activities dropped by 75.7% to RMB 201.6 million compared to RMB 828.5 million in 2023[4]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company held cash and deposits totaling RMB 2,694.2 million, providing sufficient liquidity for operational adjustments[27]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased from RMB 444,346 thousand in 2023 to RMB 579,122 thousand in 2024, an increase of about 30.3%[74]. Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased 6,966,308 shares in 2024 at a total cost of approximately RMB 22,641,000, with a maximum price of HKD 3.07 per share[98]. - The group canceled 7,538,000 shares during the year, with a total book value of RMB 18,167,000[116]. - The company did not declare or pay any dividends for the year ending December 31, 2024, consistent with 2023[121]. Future Outlook - The group plans to enhance its overall operations with 10.0% or HKD 484.2 million of the net proceeds, aimed at improving operational efficiency[68]. - The company has no plans for any future significant investments or capital asset plans beyond what has been disclosed in the prospectus[64].

Core Points - Naixue Tea (02150.HK) saw a significant stock price increase, closing at HKD 2.150, a rise of 21.469% [1] - The company announced the resignation of its Executive Director and COO, Deng Bin, effective February 26, 2025, due to personal matters [2] - Deng Bin has been with Naixue Tea for nearly 10 years, having joined in August 2016 and served as COO since January 2019 [2] Financial Performance - Naixue Tea reported net losses of RMB 69.73 million, RMB 39.68 million, and RMB 203 million for the years 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively [4] - The company continued to experience losses post-IPO, with adjusted net losses of RMB 145 million, RMB 461 million, and RMB 438 million for the years 2021, 2022, and the first half of 2024, respectively [5] - In 2023, Naixue Tea recorded a net profit of RMB 20.9 million, marking a rare positive performance amidst previous losses [5][6] Business Overview - Naixue Tea was founded in 2015 and pioneered the "tea + soft European bread" dual-category model [6] - The company has established three main business segments: "freshly made tea drinks," "Naixue Mingcha," and "RTD bottled tea" [7] - As of now, Naixue Tea operates over 1,200 stores across nearly 100 major cities in China [9]

奈雪的茶控股有限公司 NAYUKI HOLDINGS LIMITED (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) Stock Code 股份代號 : 2150 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 目錄 | CONTENTS | | | | | 2 | Corporate Information 公司資料 | | 5 | Management Discussion and Analysis 管理層討論及分析 | | 28 | Other Information 其他資料 | | 46 | Review Report 審閱報告 | | 48 | Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss | | | 綜合損益表 | | 49 | Consolidated Statement of Profit ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 09 21 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 直营门店经营承压，加盟、海外业务稳步推进 事件：8 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年中期业绩公告，2024H1 实现收入 25.44 亿元/同 比-1.9%，归母净亏损 4.35 亿元/上年同期盈利 0.66 亿元，经调整净亏损 4.38 亿元/上 年同期盈利 0.70 亿元。分产品来看，现制茶饮/烘焙产品/瓶装饮料/其他产品收入分别 为 17.22/2.70/1.72/3.80 亿元，分别同比-9.6%/-26.2%/+9.6%/+128.7%，占比分别 为 67.7%/10.6%/6.8%/14.9%，瓶装饮料、其他产品中的加盟业务发展较快。分收入 来源来看，奈雪的茶直营门店点单/自提订单/外卖订单占比分别13.4%/46.0%/40.6% 自提订单收入占比同比+4.9pct。 直营店展店放缓，单店日销承压。1）展店：2024H1，公司净新增直营门店数 23 家， 相对上年同期的 126 家有所放缓。截至报告期末，直营门店数 1597 家。其中，一线 新一线/二线/其他城市直营门店数 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 1.58 for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is currently facing operational challenges, with a focus on franchise expansion and overseas growth opportunities. The first half of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 1.9% year-on-year, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 438 million, primarily due to store closures and related impairments [2][4][5]. - The company maintains a high-end product positioning and aims for high-quality development, with expectations for potential profit recovery in the medium to long term if same-store sales stabilize [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company's revenue was RMB 2.544 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. The adjusted net loss was RMB 438 million, compared to an adjusted net profit of RMB 70 million in 1H23. This loss includes RMB 150 million related to the anticipated closure of 200 stores [2][5]. - The company operated 1,597 directly managed stores and 297 franchise stores as of 1H24. Direct store revenue was RMB 2.105 billion, down 10.6% year-on-year, with an average transaction value of RMB 27.5, a decrease of 15.12% [3][4]. Store Expansion and Franchise Model - The company is actively expanding its franchise model, with 297 franchise stores as of 1H24, a net increase of approximately 216 stores, mainly in lower-tier cities. Franchise-related income grew by 222.8% year-on-year, accounting for 10.5% of total revenue [4][5]. - The company is also exploring overseas markets, with a flagship store opening in Thailand in August 2024, achieving record sales for overseas locations [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB -0.4, RMB 0.05, and RMB 0.09, respectively. The target price of HKD 1.58 is based on a 16x PE ratio for 2026, compared to an average of 11x for comparable companies [5][11][12].

2024 年 9 月 5 日 公司研究 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------------|---------------------------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -10.32 | -17.36 | -65.04 | | 绝对 | | | | | 资料来源： | -7.60 Wind | -22.60 | -72.40 | | 相关研报 | | | | | 的茶（ （ 2023-08-30 | 2150.HK）2023 ） ...