Summary of China Vanke Company Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Vanke Company Ltd. - **Industry**: China Property - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb65,311 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb5.89 (as of November 26, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb4.58, indicating a downside of 22% from the current price [5][5][5] Key Financial Metrics - **52-Week Range**: Rmb8.99 - Rmb5.89 - **Average Daily Trading Value**: Rmb950.91 million - **Net Income Estimates**: - 2025: (Rmb21,301 million) - 2026: (Rmb9,693 million) - 2027: (Rmb3,697 million) - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025: (Rmb1.79) - 2026: (Rmb0.81) - 2027: (Rmb0.31) [5][5][5] Bond Issues and Financial Strategy - **Upcoming Bond Maturities**: - Rmb2 billion bond maturing on December 15, 2025 - Other bonds maturing in 2026 and 2027 with varying coupon rates [3][3][3] - **Potential Bond Extension**: A meeting with bondholders is scheduled for December 10, 2025, to discuss the extension of the Rmb2 billion onshore bond, which may indicate a broader strategy to manage debt [8][8][8] - **Cash Burn Rate**: Estimated to worsen to approximately Rmb10 billion monthly, complicating project completions [8][8][8] Market and Sales Insights - **Property Sales Impact**: The potential bond extension could lead to a significant drop in property sales, with a shift in buyer preference towards state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and completed units [8][8][8] - **Overall Market Impact**: The impact on new home sales is expected to be manageable, with a noted shift in buyer behavior [8][8][8] Valuation Methodology - **Net Asset Value (NAV)**: - Rmb6.55/share for 2025, comprising: - Rmb15.71 from development properties - Rmb7.85 from investment properties - Rmb5.33 from other business - Rmb22.35 of net debt - A 30% discount applied based on a developers' scorecard [9][9][9] Analyst Ratings and Industry View - **Stock Rating**: Underweight - **Industry View**: In-Line - **Analyst**: Stephen Cheung, CFA [5][5][5] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Potential for deeper losses due to aggressive destocking and asset disposals - Weaker-than-expected financial results and contract sales [12][12][12] - **Upside Risks**: - Monetization of business diversification and stronger-than-expected contract sales [12][12][12] Conclusion China Vanke Company Ltd. is navigating a challenging financial landscape with significant upcoming bond maturities and a potential cash burn issue. The company's strategy to extend bond maturities may provide temporary relief, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious, reflected in the underweight stock rating and the anticipated decline in property sales.

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate sector is experiencing a decline, with several major companies reporting significant stock price drops [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Vanke Enterprises has seen a decline of over 5% in its stock price [2] - Shimao Group's stock has dropped by more than 3% [2] - CIFI Holdings, Longfor Group, and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group have all experienced declines exceeding 2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Several bonds issued by Vanke have experienced significant price drops, leading to temporary trading suspensions on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange due to regulatory rules regarding bond trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Trading Suspensions - "22 Vanke 02" (149815) saw a price drop of 20% or more, resulting in a temporary suspension from 09:30:00 to 10:00:00 [1]. - "21 Vanke 02" (149358) experienced a price drop of 30% or more, leading to a suspension from 09:30:32 to 15:27:00 [1]. - "21 Vanke 06" (149568) also faced a 30% or more price drop, with a suspension from 09:30:22 to 15:27:00 [1]. Group 2: Additional Bond Suspensions - "22 Vanke 04" (149931) had a price drop of 30% or more, resulting in a suspension from 09:33:17 to 15:27:00 [2]. - "23 Vanke 01" (148380) saw a similar price drop of 30% or more, leading to a suspension from 09:34:18 to 15:27:00 [2]. - "21 Vanke 04" (149478) also experienced a 30% or more price drop, with a suspension from 09:39:16 to 15:27:00 [2]. Group 3: Further Bond Price Drops - "22 Vanke 06" (149976) faced a price drop of 30% or more, resulting in a suspension from 09:48:52 to 15:27:00 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's stock and bonds experienced significant declines, with stocks dropping over 8% initially and bonds triggering temporary suspensions due to steep losses [2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Vanke A (000002) and Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) saw their stock prices fall by more than 8% at the start of trading, later narrowing the decline to over 7% [2]. - The decline in stock prices is indicative of market concerns regarding Vanke's financial stability and future prospects [2]. Group 2: Bond Performance - Several of Vanke's bonds, including "22 Vanke 02" and "21 Vanke 02," experienced declines exceeding 41%, while others like "21 Vanke 04" and "23 Vanke 01" fell over 32% [3][5]. - The significant drop in bond prices led to temporary suspensions for multiple bond issues, reflecting heightened investor anxiety [5]. Group 3: Corporate Announcements - On November 26, Vanke announced a meeting to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004," scheduled for December 10, which may impact investor sentiment [3]. - A framework agreement was signed with the largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, allowing Vanke to access up to 22 billion yuan in loans, which could provide some financial relief [4].

Core Points - Vanke is seeking an extension for a 2 billion yuan domestic bond, with a meeting scheduled for December 10, 2025, to discuss related matters [1][2] - The company has repaid 28.89 billion yuan of public debt as of the end of the third quarter, with no foreign public debt maturing before 2027 [2] Group 1: Bond Details - The bond in question is the Vanke MTN004, with a principal repayment date set for December 15, 2025 [1][2] - The bond has a remaining balance of 2 billion yuan and an interest rate of 3% [1][2] - A second bond, Vanke MTN005, is also due for repayment on December 28, 2025, with a total outstanding balance of 5.7 billion yuan, requiring approximately 5.871 billion yuan for principal and interest [2] Group 2: Meeting Information - The meeting will be convened by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and will take place in a non-physical format [2] - The meeting will be held on the service system and will also be accessible via Tencent Meeting [2]

"22万科04"转为上涨近42%，触发临停。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's stock and bonds experienced significant declines, with stocks dropping over 8% initially and bonds triggering temporary suspensions due to steep price drops [2][4]. Stock Performance - Vanke A (000002) and Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) saw their stock prices fall by more than 8% at the start of trading, later narrowing the decline to over 7% [2]. Bond Performance - Several Vanke bonds, including "22万科02", "21万科02", "21万科06", "22万科04", "23万科01", and "21万科04", experienced significant drops, with "22万科04" and "21万科02" falling over 41%, and "21万科06" and "21万科04" dropping over 36% [4][5]. Announcement of Creditors' Meeting - On November 26, Vanke announced a creditors' meeting to discuss the extension of "22万科MTN004", scheduled for December 10, 2025 [5]. Loan Agreement with Major Shareholder - On November 2, Vanke signed a framework agreement with its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, allowing for a maximum loan of 22 billion yuan, with an additional 2.29 billion yuan available later [6].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.08% and the ChiNext Index down 0.11% [1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened up 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.1% [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector opened strongly, with tin and aluminum leading the gains [1] - AI computing concepts remained active, with Cambrian rising over 3% [1] - The CPO concept experienced a general pullback, with lithium battery, aquaculture, and real estate sectors mostly declining [1] Company Specifics - Vanke A opened down nearly 5%, continuing a downward trend [1][3] - Vanke's bonds saw significant declines, with "23 Vanke 01" and "22 Vanke 04" dropping 32.4% and 41.8% respectively, leading to temporary suspensions [2][4] - Vanke A's stock price fell over 8%, reaching a new low not seen in over a decade [3] - Vanke is seeking to extend the maturity of a 2 billion yuan bond, with a meeting scheduled for December 10 to discuss the extension proposal [4][5] Debt Market - The bond market showed a downward trend, with most contracts declining, particularly the 30-year and 10-year contracts [2][5] - Vanke's domestic bonds experienced significant drops, with some bonds falling over 41% [4][5] Currency and Commodity - The opening of commodity markets showed mixed results, with platinum and palladium both experiencing gains on their first trading days [2][9] - The RMB appreciated against the USD, with the central parity rate set at 7.0779 [9]

11月27日，A股万科A低开近5%。H股万科企业跳空低开逾5%，距历史低点仅逾1%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月27日，"22万科04"跌超41%，"21万科04"跌超36%，均盘中临时停牌。 ...