证券研究投告 中国财险 (2328 HK) A 1.00 . PhD (852) 3558 6112 +(86) 21 2897 2228 主大成都 11.00目标价 (本名) 救金命 (海令 秦王 7 月 29 日)10.06 本位 (海名百万)223,762 6 个月个均日点文辑 (港专区方)301.02 52 鸡谷格克国 (毛名)8.03-11.54 BVPS (人民名)10.40 成价大学园 28 15 2 (12) (25) Nov-23 Jul-24 Jul-23 个半多次 - S&P 1H24 巨炎带未坑的 부휴坏充 2024 年７月 30 日 | 中国香港 是新版合 体验 1H24 剁满赢网 比下半 年初的市至交客孚县中国财险 1Q24 的综合成本年 (COR) 同比上升 2.2pct 至 97.9%。考虑到二季度的基両送水灾害老和对较为领导，表们预计 1H24 的 COR 为 97.2%，高于 1H23 的 95.8%。二季度的投资市场免场后种，整 休秘为稳定且高总殷标块表现和对较好,对高总殷特色较多的险资可能有支 操作用，投资未现应好千一季度。表们预计 1H24 EPS RMB0.76，同 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 15 日 中国财险(02328) 车险增速环比回落,非车险增速环比改善 事件:公司发布 2024 年 6 月保费收入公告,6 月当月公司实现保费收入 628.75 亿元,同比+6.1%,其中车险同比+1.8%、非车险同比+9.2%。 ➢ 6 月车险保费同比+1.8%,增速环比有所回落,主因新车销量降幅扩大 6 月公司实现车险保费收入 254.29 亿元,同比+1.8%。公司的车险保费增 速环比回落(5 月为+4.4%),主要系新车销量降幅扩大。6 月我国狭义乘用 车零售销量同比-6.7%(5 月为-1.8%)。但全年来看,随着"以旧换新"政 策的效果逐步显现,新车销量仍有望实现较好增长,从而能带动公司车险 保费实现正增。对于车险 COR,2024Q2 公司的车险 COR 预计将保持在较好 水平。2024Q2 以来,得益于公司积极践行"保险+风险减量服务+科技"新 商业模式,自然灾害对公司车险赔付率的影响可控。公司的车险赔付率预 计将处于较好水平。同时车险执行"报行合一"也有望推动车险费用率同 比改善。从全年维度来看,随着公司持续升级风险减量服务水平、优化车 险业务结构,公 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of HKD 11.45 to 12.10, indicating a potential upside of over 16.6% from the current price of HKD 9.70 [3][8]. Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance (China P&C) is a leading state-owned property insurance company in China, with a premium scale that ranks first in Asia and second globally. As of the end of 2023, the company's premium income exceeded RMB 500 billion for the first time, reaching RMB 515.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.26% [1][8]. - The company benefits from a strong competitive position characterized by high entry barriers, significant capital requirements, and sensitivity to new technology applications, which create a substantial "moat" effect. The top three insurers in the market account for 63.42% of total premium income, highlighting the pronounced Matthew effect in the industry [1][16]. - The company is well-positioned for growth in both auto and non-auto insurance segments, leveraging its extensive service network, business scale, and data reserves. The auto insurance segment generated RMB 285.63 billion in premiums, maintaining its industry-leading position, while non-auto insurance, including health, agricultural, liability, and corporate property insurance, is expected to contribute significantly to future growth [1][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China P&C, headquartered in Beijing, is the largest property insurance company in mainland China, with a history dating back to 1949. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2003, becoming the first financial enterprise from mainland China to go public overseas [8][12]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total premium income of RMB 515.81 billion in 2023, with a market share of 35.47% as of the first quarter of 2024. The auto insurance market share was 32.32%, while non-auto insurance reached 37.91% [1][8]. Business Segments - The auto insurance segment remains the largest contributor to revenue, with a focus on enhancing underwriting profitability through data-driven pricing models and partnerships with repair platforms. Non-auto insurance, particularly health and agricultural insurance, is also growing rapidly, with health insurance turning profitable in 2023 after previous losses [1][22][18]. Market Dynamics - The property insurance industry in China is characterized by high concentration among the top players, with the top three companies (China P&C, Ping An Property & Casualty, and Taiping Property & Casualty) dominating the market. The report notes a shift towards non-auto insurance products, driven by policy changes and increased public awareness [16][17]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for China P&C to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share projected at RMB 1.28, RMB 1.44, and RMB 1.54 for the respective years. The company's robust business model is expected to sustain profitability amid ongoing economic recovery and the rise of new energy vehicles [1][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) with a target price based on the closing price of HKD 10.08 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite fluctuations in underwriting profits due to natural disasters, the company's leading position remains strong with ongoing optimization of its business structure [1][4]. - In 2023, the company achieved original premium income of CNY 515.807 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and insurance service income of CNY 457.203 billion, up 7.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 24.585 billion, reflecting a decline of 15.7% year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of CNY 5.871 billion, down 38.25% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported original premium income of CNY 515.807 billion, with a market share of 32.5% [3]. - The insurance service income for 2023 was CNY 457.203 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7% [5]. - The net profit for 2023 was CNY 24.585 billion, with a projected growth of 15.58% for 2024 [5]. Business Structure - The company has optimized its business structure, with non-auto insurance showing significant growth, achieving a service income of CNY 175.086 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year [3]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on a balanced development across various insurance products, with notable growth in health and agricultural insurance [3][4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The underwriting profit for 2023 was CNY 10.189 billion, down 29.1% year-on-year, primarily due to increased claims from natural disasters [3]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for the company was 97.8%, with specific ratios for auto and non-auto insurance being 96.9% and 99.1%, respectively [3][4]. Investment Strategy - The total investment assets reached CNY 600.711 billion in 2023, with a total investment return of CNY 20.807 billion, reflecting a return rate of 3.5% [3]. - The company maintains a conservative investment approach, focusing on fixed-income products and optimizing its investment portfolio [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.00 HKD, maintaining the current rating [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of 38.626 billion CNY in May 2024, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with both auto and non-auto insurance segments improving [2]. - The auto insurance premium income reached 22.853 billion CNY in May, also up by 4.4% year-on-year, driven by improvements in average premiums and expected growth in new car sales due to trade-in policies [2]. - Non-auto insurance premiums increased by 4.3% year-on-year to 15.773 billion CNY, primarily supported by growth in liability and personal health insurance [3]. Summary by Sections Premium Income - In May 2024, the company achieved a total premium income of 38.626 billion CNY, with auto insurance contributing 22.853 billion CNY and non-auto insurance contributing 15.773 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.4% and 4.3% respectively [2][3]. Auto Insurance - The auto insurance segment's premium growth improved from 3.5% in April to 4.4% in May, attributed to better average premiums and anticipated growth in new car sales [2]. - The company expects the auto insurance combined ratio (COR) to improve to below 97% in 2024, supported by a favorable claims environment and regulatory guidance [2]. Non-Auto Insurance - The non-auto insurance segment saw a significant increase in liability insurance premiums by 17.1% year-on-year, while personal health insurance premiums grew by 5.5% [3]. - The company anticipates a modest single-digit growth in non-auto insurance for the year, driven by economic recovery and supportive policies [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company projects net profits of 28.244 billion CNY, 31.365 billion CNY, and 33.301 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 14.9%, 11%, and 6% [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to exceed 12% in 2024, reflecting the company's focus on high-quality development and improved investment income [4].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call is associated with Guolian Securities Research Institute, focusing on investment management and advisory services. Core Points and Arguments - The call is intended exclusively for clients on the whitelist of Guolian Securities Research Institute, emphasizing the selective nature of the audience [1] - It is clearly stated that the content of the meeting does not constitute investment advice, highlighting the importance of independent decision-making by participants [1] - Participants are reminded that they bear the responsibility for their investment decisions and any associated risks [1] - Guolian Securities disclaims any liability for losses incurred by individuals using the content of the meeting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call underscores the regulatory framework surrounding investor suitability, indicating a focus on compliance and responsible investment practices [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.00, while the current price is HKD 10.56 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of CNY 36.518 billion in April 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%. The auto insurance segment grew by 3.5%, while non-auto insurance saw a decline of 7.8% [5]. - The growth in auto insurance premiums is attributed to contributions from new policies and renewals, with expectations of around 5% growth for the year due to increased vehicle sales and government policies [6]. - Non-auto insurance premiums declined primarily due to pressure on government and corporate business, with expectations for recovery as government business selections progress and the economy continues to recover [7]. - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of over 12% and a continuous improvement in combined operating ratio (COR) for 2024, with projected net profits of CNY 28.224 billion, CNY 31.365 billion, and CNY 33.301 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8]. Financial Data Summary - Total share capital is 22,242.77 million shares, with a circulating market value of HKD 72,856.54 million. The net asset value per share is HKD 11.10, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 66.72% [2]. - The company's main revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 482.705 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at CNY 1.27, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.57 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market benchmark by more than 10% [5][15]. Core Views - The report highlights the competitive advantage of the company's property and casualty insurance business, particularly in the auto insurance sector, where it benefits from a lower claims ratio and controllable channel costs. This advantage is expected to become more pronounced in the second half of the auto insurance reform [5][6]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 2024 price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.82, which is considered low. The report suggests a reasonable value range of RMB 10.55 to 11.11, translating to HKD 11.63 to 12.24 based on the current exchange rate [5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a net profit of RMB 5.87 billion, a decrease of 38.3% year-on-year, primarily due to pressures from both underwriting and investment sides [5][12]. - Total premium income for property insurance reached RMB 174 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance growing by 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively [5][8]. - The comprehensive cost ratio was reported at 97.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by natural disasters and increased travel activity [5][6]. Investment Insights - The report notes that the company's investment income has been under pressure due to market volatility, with total investment income decreasing by 36.4% year-on-year. The investment yield for Q1 2024 was reported at 0.8% [5][12]. - The report anticipates that the company's ongoing efforts to reduce costs and enhance risk management will help maintain a favorable comprehensive cost ratio in the future [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics against peers, indicating a 2024E PB range of 0.95 to 1.0, suggesting potential upside based on peer valuations [5][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 1.13, with a forecasted net profit growth of 2.55% [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.87 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%. This decline was primarily due to market volatility affecting investment income, which decreased by approximately 35.2% year-on-year. Additionally, natural disasters such as snowstorms and freezing rain, along with increased travel rates, led to a rise in the comprehensive cost ratio to 97.9%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][2]. - Despite the short-term impacts of natural disasters and market fluctuations, the company's solid fundamentals and profitability remain intact. The report anticipates improvements in both underwriting profits and investment income, supported by enhanced regulatory oversight of market competition, which is expected to lead to a long-term increase in industry concentration [6][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved insurance service revenue of 113.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The revenue from auto insurance was 72.29 billion, up 6.5%, while non-auto insurance revenue was 41.56 billion, growing by 4.9%. The growth rates have slowed compared to 2023, likely due to delays in the selection of certain policy-related businesses [6]. - The total investment income for the company was 4.78 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 35.2%, with an annualized total investment return of only 0.8%. The report notes that the company does not face the liability cost concerns seen in life insurance due to its business model [6]. Solvency and Future Outlook - As of the latest report, the company's core solvency adequacy ratio stood at 228.1%, exceeding both industry peers and regulatory requirements. This strong solvency position provides the company with greater operational flexibility and supports future dividend capabilities [6]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the dual improvement of underwriting profits and investment income, despite the current challenges posed by natural disasters and market volatility [6][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 11.90, implying a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 9.45 [2][6]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance of the company was below expectations, primarily due to a slight increase in the combined ratio (CoR) to 97.9% from 97.8% in FY23. The growth in automobile and non-automobile premiums slowed down to +1.9% and +5.0% year-on-year, respectively [1][7]. - Despite the weak performance in Q1, the report expresses confidence in the company's underwriting resilience, citing that catastrophe-related claims have been fully released in Q1 and expecting a recovery in monthly premium growth as seasonal effects dissipate [1][6]. - The report adjusts FY24-26E EPS forecasts down by 2%-6% due to ongoing impacts from asset allocation and market volatility, projecting EPS of RMB 1.32, 1.43, and 1.55 for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's net profit for Q1 was RMB 5.87 billion, down 38.3% year-on-year, with underwriting profit declining by 49.1% to RMB 2.35 billion [1][7]. - Insurance service income increased by 5.9% year-on-year to RMB 113.84 billion, while insurance service expenses rose by 9.0% to RMB 105.59 billion [7][8]. - The investment income, including contributions from associates, decreased by 35.7% to RMB 2.15 billion, with a fair value loss of RMB 0.16 billion reported [7][8]. Premium Income and Combined Ratio - The total premium income for Q1 was RMB 173.98 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [8]. - The combined ratio for the automobile segment is projected to be 96.7% for FY24, while the non-automobile segment is expected to have a CoR of 98.9% [1][6]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.8 times FY24E price-to-book (P/B) ratio, with a dividend yield of 6.0% for FY24E [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's defensive performance, offering over 40% in dividends, and maintains optimism regarding its market leadership in property and casualty insurance [1][6].