Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C with a target price of HK$11.90, implying a 25.9% upside from the current price of HK$9.45 [3][18]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2024 saw weaker-than-expected results, with the combined ratio (CoR) slightly increasing to 97.9% compared to 97.8% in FY23. Auto and non-auto premium growth dropped to +1.9% and +5.0% YoY, respectively [2]. - Underwriting profit decreased by 49.1% YoY to RMB2.4 billion, impacting net profit which fell by 38.3% YoY to RMB5.9 billion. The net investment yield was reported at 0.8%, lower than some life insurance peers [2][8]. - Despite the weak performance in Q1, the report expresses confidence in the insurer's underwriting resilience due to the full release of catastrophe-induced claims and a recovery in monthly premium growth as seasonal effects fade [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q24, insurance service revenue increased by 5.9% YoY to RMB113.8 billion, while insurance service expenses rose by 9.0% YoY to RMB105.6 billion. The underwriting result was RMB5.2 billion, down 29.0% YoY [8]. - The net investment result dropped by 53.8% YoY to RMB2.3 billion, with a fair value loss of RMB164 million compared to a gain of RMB1.2 billion in 1Q23 [8][15]. Premium Growth - Auto premium growth was reported at +1.9% YoY, significantly lower than the previous year's +6.5%. Non-auto premium growth was +5.0% YoY, down from +12.8% YoY in 1Q23 [2][9]. - Agriculture insurance premiums increased by 14.7% YoY in March, indicating potential recovery in non-auto segments [2]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.8x FY24E P/BV, with a projected dividend yield of 6.0% for FY24E [2][15]. - The report revises down FY24-26E EPS by 2%-6% due to investment volatilities, with expected EPS of RMB1.32, RMB1.43, and RMB1.55 for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [2][15].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Pacific Insurance Company Overview - The conference call focused on **China Pacific Insurance** (中国财险), discussing its recent performance and outlook for the year 2024 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The first quarter results were below market expectations, with a combined cost ratio of **97.9%** and a net profit decline of **38.3%** [4][28]. - Market expectations for the combined cost ratio were around **97.5%**, with a profit decline forecasted between **20% to 25%** [4]. - The underwriting profit was approximately **2.4 billion** (24亿), reflecting a year-on-year decline of **48%** [5]. - Investment income saw a significant drop, with a decline of **35%**, which heavily impacted overall profits since investment income constitutes about **60% to 70%** of total profits [6][28]. Industry Comparison - Compared to competitors, China Pacific Insurance's performance was relatively weaker, with its combined cost ratio significantly lower than that of China Taiping (98.4%) and Ping An (98.7%) [8]. - The company’s performance was affected by a high base from the previous year, where the combined cost ratio was **95.7%** [8]. External Factors - The company faced challenges due to natural disasters, specifically a rare freezing rain event in regions like Hubei and Anhui, which increased claims and impacted profitability [22][24]. - The social insurance business was also sluggish due to slow government tender processes, leading to lower earned premiums [25]. Future Outlook - The company’s president expressed confidence in achieving the annual targets, maintaining a combined cost ratio of **97%** for auto insurance and **100%** for non-auto insurance [18][19]. - The forecast for the full year is a net profit of approximately **27 billion** (270亿), with a year-on-year growth rate of about **10%** [28]. - The expected dividend growth is projected to be between **5% to 10%**, with a target of around **0.108** (0.10) per share [28]. Investment Perspective - The current valuation is seen as attractive, with a price-to-book ratio of **0.78** and a dividend yield of around **6%** [34]. - The analysis suggests that the first quarter results represent a low point, with expectations for recovery in subsequent quarters, particularly in Q3 and Q4 [32][37]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment remains optimistic regarding the company's long-term investment value, despite short-term fluctuations due to external factors and accounting changes [39]. Additional Important Points - The impact of new accounting standards on financial reporting was noted, affecting the classification of assets and the recognition of gains [10][12]. - The company’s investment strategy and performance in the bond market were discussed, highlighting the shorter duration of liabilities compared to competitors [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding China Pacific Insurance's financial performance, industry positioning, external challenges, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 13.35 per share, corresponding to a P/B of 1.2 times for 2024 [3][4]. Core Views - The company's net profit for Q1 2024 decreased by 38.3% year-on-year to CNY 5.871 billion, which is below market expectations. Both underwriting and investment are under pressure, with the combined cost ratio (COR) rising to 97.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The report anticipates that the company will achieve stable premium growth through intrinsic development despite the challenges faced in underwriting and investment [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 net profit was CNY 5.871 billion, down 38.3% year-on-year, lower than market expectations. The underwriting profit has significantly declined due to adverse weather conditions and increased traffic, while investment income has also been affected by market volatility [3][7]. - The total investment return rate (not annualized) was 0.8%, while the comprehensive investment return rate (not annualized) remained stable at 1.49% [3]. Underwriting Performance - Q1 2024 auto insurance premium growth was 1.9%, below the industry growth rate of 2.6%. This is attributed to the relaxation of self-pricing mechanisms and strict adherence to the "reporting and execution" policy [3]. - The report projects that auto insurance will see intrinsic growth, with 31% of customers only holding mandatory insurance and 87% holding only mandatory insurance plus CNY 1 million in commercial third-party liability insurance, potentially leading to an annual premium growth of 0.5% to 1.0% [3]. Non-Auto Insurance - Q1 2024 non-auto insurance premium income grew by 5.0%, primarily driven by corporate property insurance, cargo insurance, and health insurance, which contributed 11.3%, 9.4%, and 6.2% respectively [3]. - The report highlights that the growth in agricultural insurance has slowed to 3.2% year-on-year due to delays in selection processes in some regions [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain its underwriting profit target for the year, with a target COR of 97% for auto insurance and 100% for non-auto insurance [3]. - The report identifies catalysts for future growth, including effective claims control mechanisms [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%. The combined ratio (COR) increased by 2.2 percentage points to 97.9%, which is below expectations but still better than peers [2][4]. - The insurance service revenue for Q1 2024 was 113.843 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. However, the underwriting profit decreased by 48.3% to 2.391 billion yuan due to increased claims from natural disasters and traffic incidents [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable business operation with a focus on optimizing structure, reducing costs, and managing risks, which should lead to long-term improvement in COR [2][4]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 424.355 billion yuan in 2024E to 552.869 billion yuan in 2026E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [2][6]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 24.585 billion yuan in 2023E to 35.951 billion yuan in 2026E, with a notable year-on-year growth of 16.1% in 2024E [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.11 yuan in 2023E to 1.62 yuan in 2026E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 8.20 in 2024E to 5.60 in 2026E, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][6]. Market Performance - As of April 29, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 9.98 HKD, with a market capitalization of 222 billion HKD [1]. - The stock has a 52-week high of 11.28 HKD and a low of 8.17 HKD, indicating some volatility in its trading range [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) with a target price of HKD 13.00, based on its unique business model and high return on equity (ROE) [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of HKD 5.871 billion in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 38.3%, primarily due to declines in both underwriting profit and investment income [4][5]. - The overall combined ratio (COR) for Q1 2024 was 97.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to heightened claims from natural disasters and increased payout ratios due to the recovery of automobile travel [3][4]. - The report anticipates gradual improvement in performance throughout the year, driven by economic recovery and seasonal factors, with expectations of single-digit growth in premium income [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company achieved original insurance premium income of HKD 173.977 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with motor insurance premiums up 1.9% and non-motor insurance premiums up 5.0% [3]. - The annualized total investment return rate for Q1 2024 was 3.2%, with total investment income of approximately HKD 4.892 billion, down 34.7% year-on-year due to market volatility affecting equity investments [4]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at HKD 28.244 billion, HKD 31.365 billion, and HKD 33.301 billion, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 11%, and 6% respectively [5][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's main revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 482.705 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [6]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is 6.91, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.92 [6]. - The total assets are expected to reach HKD 746.462 billion by 2024, with total liabilities projected at HKD 495.323 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.871 billion yuan, a significant decline of 38.3% year-on-year, which was below expectations. This decline is attributed to challenges in underwriting due to adverse weather conditions and increased travel, as well as fluctuations in capital markets affecting investment income [2][5] - The report indicates that the high base from the previous year is a core factor dragging down the Return on Equity (ROE), which was 2.5% in Q1 2024, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] - Despite the challenges, the company is noted to have certain resilience compared to its peers, with absolute performance levels still superior to the industry [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from 457.203 billion yuan in 2023 to 569.764 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.5% [1][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 24.585 billion yuan in 2023 to 34.478 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 9.1% [1][7] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 29.641 billion yuan, 32.330 billion yuan, and 34.478 billion yuan respectively [2][5] Performance Analysis - The average underwriting leverage remained stable at 0.48 in Q1 2024, with insurance service revenue growth of 5.9% slightly outpacing equity growth of 5.3% [2][5] - The underwriting profit margin decreased from 4.3% in Q1 2023 to 2.1% in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased claims from adverse weather events [2][5] - The total investment return rate fell from 1.3% in Q1 2023 to 0.8% in Q1 2024, with investment income declining by 36.4% year-on-year [2][5] Competitive Positioning - The report compares the company's performance with its peers, noting that its comprehensive cost ratio of 97.9% in Q1 2024 is better than that of its competitors [2][5] - In terms of original premium growth for Q1 2024, the company is positioned behind its peers, with a focus on upgrading business quality and moderating premium growth in the auto insurance segment [2][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.51, compared to the current price of HKD 9.98 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a 5.9% year-on-year increase in insurance service revenue for Q1 2024, reaching CNY 113.8 billion. The combined cost ratio (COR) rose by 2.2 percentage points to 97.9%, but remains better than peers. The net profit decreased by 38.3% year-on-year to CNY 5.9 billion, primarily due to investment performance [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in underwriting, supported by its leading position and a new business model integrating "insurance + risk reduction services + technology." The report anticipates a gradual improvement in return on equity (ROE) [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company achieved insurance service revenue of CNY 113.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The COR was 97.9%, which is better than major competitors [1][2]. - The investment performance was impacted by a high base from the previous year, with a total investment yield of 0.8% for Q1 2024. The net profit was affected by a significant decline in investment income, with total investment income decreasing by 36.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report projects the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be CNY 1.37, CNY 1.54, and CNY 1.70 respectively, with a price-to-book (PB) target of 1.1x for 2024 [2][3].

非银金融/保险Ⅱ 公 司 中国财险（02328.HK） 冰冻灾害和高出行拖累 COR，政策端释放积极信号 研 究 2024年04月30日 ——中国财险 2024年 1季报点评 投资评级：买入（维持） 高超（分析师） 吕晨雨（分析师） 唐关勇（联系人） 日期 2024/4/30 gaochao1@kysec.cn lvchenyu@kysec.cn tangguanyong@kysec.cn 当前股价(港元) 9.980 证 书编号：S0790520050001 证书编号：S0790522090002 证书编号：S0790123070030 一年最高最低(港元) 11.540/8.030  冰冻灾害和高出行拖累COR，高基数下权益投资下滑拖累业绩 总市值(亿港元) 2,219.83 公司披露 2024年1季报，2024Q1归母净利润58.71亿元、同比-38.3%，低于我 流通市值(亿港元) 688.55 们预期，我们测算承保/投资利润分别同比-32%/-53%，预计主要系春季雪灾多 港 总股本(亿股) 222.43 发和出行率提升造成 COR提高，同时权益投资收益下滑。公司承保综合成本率 股 流通港股(亿股 ...

Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved insurance service revenue of RMB 113.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%[3] - The motor vehicle insurance segment generated revenue of RMB 72.288 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, while non-motor vehicle insurance revenue reached RMB 41.555 billion, growing by 4.9%[4] - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2024 reached RMB 118,988 million, a 3.3% increase from RMB 115,258 million in Q1 2023[9] - Insurance service revenue increased to RMB 113,843 million, up from RMB 107,520 million, reflecting a growth of 5.5% year-over-year[9] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 5,871 million, a significant decrease of 38.5% compared to RMB 9,508 million in Q1 2023[9] - The total profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 6,826 million, down 41.5% from RMB 11,609 million in Q1 2023[9] Cost and Profitability - The net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 5.871 billion, reflecting the company's efforts to enhance risk management amid adverse weather conditions and market volatility[3] - The comprehensive cost ratio for Q1 2024 was reported at 297.9%, influenced by increased claims due to low-temperature weather and rising traffic incidents[4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 902 million, down from RMB 6,332 million in the same period last year, indicating a decline of 85.7%[10] - The company reported a total investment cash inflow of RMB 38,021 million, compared to RMB 48,658 million in Q1 2023, representing a decrease of 21.8%[10] - The cash flow from financing activities showed a net outflow of RMB 8,357 million, compared to a net outflow of RMB 19,711 million in Q1 2023, indicating an improvement[10] Assets and Liabilities - As of March 31, 2024, the company's total assets amounted to RMB 697.079 billion, a decrease from RMB 700.799 billion as of December 31, 2023[8] - The company's cash and cash equivalents were reported at RMB 10.652 billion, down from RMB 12.458 billion at the end of 2023[8] - The company’s total liabilities decreased to RMB 457.865 billion from RMB 470.410 billion at the end of 2023[8] - The total equity attributable to shareholders rose to RMB 239.214 billion, up from RMB 230.388 billion at the end of 2023[8] - The core capital increased by 5.9% to RMB 215.061 billion compared to RMB 203.088 billion at the end of 2023[7] Strategic Focus - The company plans to focus on expanding its insurance services and enhancing investment strategies to improve future performance[9] - The company is actively exploring new technologies and products to drive growth in the upcoming quarters[9] Investment Returns - The company maintained a total investment return rate of 0.8% for Q1 2024, despite a decline in equity investment returns due to market conditions[5] - The company recorded a foreign exchange loss of RMB 308 thousand, a decrease from a loss of RMB 31,150 thousand in the previous year[10]

智通财经APP获悉，野村发布研究报告称，予中国财险(02328)“买入”评级，预计2024年首季综合比率上升以及投资收益率下降，纯利可能同比减少8%至87.5亿元人民币，年化股股东权益回报率同比减少2.2个百分点至14.8%，目标价从12.51港元下调2.2%至12.23港元。 该行预计，中国财险第一季度承保利润跌10.1%至41.57亿元人民币，第一季度综合比率将同比增0.6个百分点至96.3%，主因是中国重新开放国门后人流量回升，以及春节期间雪灾等自然灾害，造成的损失率扩大。此外新车销售疲软以及严格执行费用和定价监管，保险收入的同比增速可能从2023年第四季度的5.1%，放缓至2024财年第一季度的4.5%。 ...