Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 12.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.0% from the current price of HKD 10.08 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's profit performance is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 8.7% for the first half of the year, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half due to a low comparative base [1]. - Insurance service revenue increased by 5% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 5% growth in auto insurance, while agricultural insurance saw a decline of 7% [1]. - The combined cost ratio (COR) improved for auto and agricultural insurance, with the overall COR at 96.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Total investment income decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, but a more stable performance is expected in the second half due to adjustments in asset allocation [1]. - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.208 per share, with a payout ratio of 25% [1]. Financial Overview - For the first half of 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 24,585 million, down 8.7% year-on-year, with total investment income of RMB 20,807 million [5][8]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at RMB 1.19 [4][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow at a rate of 5.2% annually, with insurance service revenue expected to increase by 7.0% in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [5]. Core Views - The company's net profit for 1H24 was 18.491 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, but the decline narrowed significantly compared to 1Q24 [4][5]. - The insurance service revenue for 1H24 increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 235.841 billion RMB, with a combined ratio (COR) improvement of 0.4 percentage points to 96.2% [4]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which have shown significant results, particularly in the auto insurance segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H24 net profit was 18.491 billion RMB, down 8.7% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in 2Q24, where net profit increased by 17.4% to 12.620 billion RMB [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.208 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 25.02% [3]. Insurance Service Revenue - Insurance service revenue for 2023 is projected at 457.203 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3]. - The company reported a 5.3% increase in auto insurance revenue to 145.157 billion RMB in 1H24, with a combined ratio of 96.4% [4]. Cost Management - The combined ratio for 1H24 improved to 96.2%, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 26.1% [4]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with a 1.8 percentage point reduction in the expense ratio despite pressures from claims [4]. Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its asset allocation, increasing its holdings in government bonds and reducing exposure to funds and corporate bonds [5]. - The total investment assets as of June increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 641.834 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.69, compared to the current price of HKD 10.08 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a slight increase in the combined ratio (COR) due to natural disasters, with a net profit growth in Q2 2024. The company achieved original premium income of CNY 311.996 billion in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2]. - The overall COR rose by 0.4 percentage points to 96.2%, primarily due to an increase in claims from natural disasters, which pressured the loss ratio to 70.1% [2]. - The report emphasizes the improvement in the agricultural insurance segment's COR, which decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 89.0%, contributing significantly to underwriting profits [2]. - The total investment return rate (unannualized) decreased to 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by declining interest rates and market volatility [2]. - The report projects a potential improvement in the combined ratio in the second half of the year due to reduced pressure from last year's typhoon weather [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported insurance service income of CNY 235.841 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2]. - The underwriting profit was CNY 8.999 billion, a decrease of 5.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 18.490 billion, down 8.7% year-on-year [2]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be CNY 1.37, CNY 1.54, and CNY 1.70 respectively, with a maintained PB target of 1.1x for 2024 [2][9].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 18.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [4] - The underwriting profit and investment income decreased by 5.0% and 7.8% respectively year-on-year [4] - Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 12.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 115% [4] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for 2024H1 increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 96.2%, but decreased compared to 97.9% in 2024Q1 [4] - The company announced its first interim dividend of RMB 0.21 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 25%, amounting to RMB 4.6 billion [4] - The current dividend yield (TTM) is 5.32%, and the PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 6.7x, 6.0x, and 5.6x respectively [4] Financial Performance - Total premium income for 2024H1 was RMB 235.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [5] - Underwriting profit for 2024H1 was RMB 9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, but Q2 underwriting profit was RMB 6.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 183% [5] - The COR for auto insurance decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 96.4%, with a claims ratio increase of 1.5 percentage points and an expense ratio decrease of 1.8 percentage points [5] - The COR for non-auto insurance was 95.8%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, with agricultural insurance showing improved business structure and quality [5] - Total investment income for 2024H1 was RMB 13.97 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, but Q2 investment income increased by 20% year-on-year [5] - The annualized total investment yield was 4.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the annualized net investment yield was 3.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] Industry and Market Analysis - The new internet property insurance regulations, effective from August 13, 2024, set higher entry barriers for internet property insurance, which is expected to optimize the industry landscape and highlight the leading position of the company [5] - Passenger car demand remains stable, supporting medium to long-term premium growth in auto insurance, with passenger car and new energy vehicle sales in July 2024 showing year-on-year changes of -5.1% and +27.0% respectively [5] Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is RMB 306 billion, RMB 340 billion, and RMB 362 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 11.0%, and 6.5% [4] - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is RMB 1.4, RMB 1.5, and RMB 1.6 respectively [4] - The forecasted total premium income for 2024-2026 is RMB 4,244 billion, RMB 4,572 billion, and RMB 4,787 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 4.7%, and 7.6% [6] - The forecasted comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for 2024-2026 is 97.3%, 97.0%, and 96.9% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) with a current price of HKD 10.08 [1]. Core Views - The company has implemented its first interim dividend, maintaining a good level of Combined Operating Ratio (COR) [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a premium income of CNY 312 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 18.49 billion, a decrease of 8.7% [7][9]. - The company continues to lead the industry with a market share of 34.0% in the non-life insurance sector [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 22.243 billion - Total market capitalization: CNY 224.207 billion - 1-year price range: HKD 8.55 to HKD 11.54 - 3-month turnover rate: 33.9% [3]. Revenue Performance - Insurance service revenue for H1 2024 was CNY 235.84 billion, up 5.1% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of growth compared to Q1 [8]. - The breakdown of insurance service revenue includes: - Motor insurance: CNY 145.16 billion, up 5.3% - Non-motor insurance: CNY 90.68 billion, up 4.9% [8]. Cost and Profitability - The combined cost ratio (COR) increased by 0.4 percentage points to 96.2%, still maintaining a good level compared to peers [8]. - The underwriting profit for H1 2024 was CNY 9 billion, down 5.0% year-on-year [8]. - The total investment income decreased by 7.8% to CNY 13.97 billion, with a non-annualized total investment return of 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is CNY 27.9 billion, CNY 30.8 billion, and CNY 34.1 billion respectively [10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.84 for 2024, indicating it is still at a historically low level [10].

中国财险（02328.HK） 优于大市 保费增速稳健，投资拖累利润表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 441,954 | 473,296 | 504,398 | 536,712 | 568,237 | | (+/-%) | 5.57% | 7.09% | 6.57% | 6.41% | 5.87% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 26,708 | 24,585 | 28,418 | 31,982 | 34,243 | | (+/-%) | 19.45% | -7.95% | 15.59% | 12.54% | 7.07% | | 摊薄每股收益(元) | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.28 | 1.44 | 1.54 | | EBIT Marg ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险(HS) 中国财险（02328.HK） 2024 年中报点评：利润降幅大幅收窄实属不 易，车险承保盈利逆势改善 2024 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 保险服务收入（百万元） | 424,355 | 457,203 | 494,002 | 529,798 | 569,764 | | 同比 | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | | 归母利润（百万元） | 29,163 | 24,585 | 29,641 | 32,330 | 34,478 | | 同比 | 30.4% | -15.7% | 20.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | | 净资产收益率 | 13.4% | 1 ...

Financial Performance - The company achieved original insurance premium income of RMB 311.996 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Insurance service income reached RMB 235.841 billion, up 5.1% compared to the same period in 2023[5] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 18.491 billion, down 8.7% from RMB 20.256 billion in the same period last year[5] - The total insurance premium income for the top ten regions reached RMB 311.996 billion, a 3.7% increase compared to RMB 300.930 billion in the same period last year[22] - The company reported a total of 197.5 million digital risk assessment reports issued in the first half of 2024[17] - The total comprehensive income for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 22,277 million, compared to RMB 19,698 million for the same period in 2023, showing an increase of 13.3%[82] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 0.831, compared to RMB 0.911 for the same period in 2023, a decline of 8.8%[81] - The company reported a net exchange gain of RMB 3,241 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 3,469 million for the same period in 2023, a decrease of 6.6%[81] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 736.639 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.7% from RMB 703.623 billion at the end of 2023[6] - Total liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 491,115 million, up from RMB 469,319 million as of December 31, 2023, indicating an increase of 4.6%[84] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 242,835 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 231,420 million as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of 4.9%[84] - The total amount of insurance contract liabilities as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 382,543 million, with net insurance contract liabilities amounting to RMB 381,747 million[124] Investment Performance - Total investment income for the period was RMB 13.971 billion[15] - The total investment return rate (not annualized) was 2.2%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[38] - The company maintained a strong investment philosophy, focusing on risk control and optimizing the investment asset portfolio[41] - The company is actively investing in high-quality equity projects to enhance its investment portfolio[64] - The total amount of financial investments measured at fair value as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 206,883 million, an increase of 14.8% from RMB 180,142 million as of December 31, 2023[120] Underwriting and Insurance Services - Underwriting profit was RMB 8.999 billion, a decrease of 5.0% from RMB 9.469 billion in the previous year[5] - The combined ratio was 96.2%, with the auto insurance combined ratio at 96.4% and the non-auto insurance combined ratio at 95.8%[15] - The comprehensive loss ratio increased to 70.1%, up by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year[19] - The accident and health insurance service income was RMB 24.751 billion, a 7.5% increase from RMB 23.019 billion year-on-year[28] - The underwriting profit for accident and health insurance significantly dropped to RMB 0.013 billion, a decrease of 96.3% from RMB 0.350 billion[28] Customer Base and Market Position - The company maintained a market share of 34.0% in the Chinese property insurance market, continuing to lead the industry[15] - The number of individual customers insured exceeded 120 million, while group customers reached 4.39 million, representing growth of 1.4% and 3.8% respectively since the beginning of the year[16] - The company provided risk protection for 127,000 enterprises in industrial parks, covering risks amounting to RMB 17.4 trillion[16] - The company expanded its agricultural insurance services to 41.79 million farming households, with coverage extending to 30 provinces[16] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company’s comprehensive expense ratio improved to 26.1%, down by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year[19] - The company is committed to reducing costs and increasing efficiency across all operational areas, including sales and underwriting[63] - The total expenses for insurance services for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were CNY 217,380 million, up from CNY 204,715 million in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 6.1%[97][98] Governance and Compliance - The company confirmed compliance with all provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the reporting period[77] - The interim financial data for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was reviewed by Ernst & Young, with no significant issues identified[80] - The company has appointed a new independent director, Xue Shuang, to strengthen its governance structure[65] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance core competitiveness and foster new growth points by focusing on high-quality development and risk prevention in the context of a stable Chinese economy[63] - The company plans to provide comprehensive insurance services for technology enterprises and promote green insurance in sectors like clean energy and low-carbon technology[63] - The company is accelerating its digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience through AI applications in marketing and claims processing[63]

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|中国财险（02328） 车险及非车险保费增速均环比提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月15日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司发布 2024 年 7 月保费收入公告，7 月当月公司实现保费收入 327.8 亿元，同比+7.6%，其 中车险同比+3.9%、非车险同比+17.4%，增速环比 6 月均有所提升。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522100001 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月15日 中国财险(02328) 车险及非车险保费增速均环比提升 | --- | --- | |------------|----------------| | 行 业： | 非银金融/保险Ⅱ | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 10.16 港元 | 基本数据 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 22,242.77/6,899.29 流通市值(百万港元) 70,096.83 每股净资产(元) 11.10 资产负债率(%) 66.72 一年内最 ...

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 【 广 发 非 银 & 海 外 】 中 国 财 险 （02328.HK） 海外财险公司的估值及中国财险 ROE 拆解 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： （除特别注明外，报告货币为人民币） 从全球龙头财险公司的经验看，（1）PB 估值水平和 ROE 之间具备显 著的正相关性，如前进保险的 ROE 从 2015 年的 17.8%提升至 2018 年的 26.5%，PB 从 2.1X 提升至 3X，好事达 ROE 从 2015 年的 10.6% 提升至 2019 年的 21.7%，PB 估值从 1.07X 提升至 1.35X，且短期的 ROE 下降不会影响估值中枢水平；（2）海外龙头财险公司近年来大部 分 ROE 在两位数以上，且对应 PB 在 1X 以上；（3）ROE 的变化受保 费收入增速、承保利润和投资的影响。（报告汇率 HKD/CNY=0.925） 展望中国财险 24-26 年 ROE 为 11.3%-12%。(1)保费预期：车险方面， 机动车保有量稳定增长，而人保有望凭借品牌和服务优势实现承保数 量的提升，另外短期看报行 ...