证 券 研 究 报 告 负债端"反内卷"政策成效显著，投资端表现分化 ——保险行业2025年中报综述 证券分析师： 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 2025.9.16 核心观点：负债端"反内卷"政策成效显著，投资端表现分化 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 利润表现分化，EV稳步增长。1H25 A股上市险企归母净利润yoy+3.7%至1782亿元，受投资表现及金融资产会计分类、利率波动等因素影响， 上市险企利润增速位居-23.5%至1103.5%区间；从利源结构来看，1H25 A股上市险企保险服务业绩、投资业绩合计分别达1310.50/928.45亿元， 占税前利润比重分别达58.0%/41.1%，利源结构相对均衡。截至6月末，上市险企EV较24年末增速位居2.6%-18.4%区间，表现稳健。 ◼ 负债端"反内卷"政策持续显效，NBV、COR表现亮眼。1）人身险方面，多数险企NBVM同比改善驱动NBV延续高增态势。A股上市险企 1H25合计实现NBV754.22亿元，同比增长30.5%，上市险企1H25NBV增速位居14.0%-58.4% ...

Core Viewpoint - The event aims to enhance public financial literacy and promote awareness of financial risks through various educational activities [2] Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week was officially launched on September 15, guided by the Shandong Regulatory Bureau of the National Financial Supervision Administration [2] - China People's Property Insurance Company Shandong Branch actively participated in the event, fulfilling its social responsibility in the insurance industry [2] Group 2: Educational Activities - The event focused on common financial risks and hot topics of public concern, utilizing multiple formats for financial knowledge dissemination [2] - A professional financial knowledge exhibition booth was set up by Shandong People's Insurance to educate the public on preventing illegal intermediaries and insurance fraud [2] - Interactive and engaging activities were introduced to enhance public participation and understanding of financial insurance policies and basic knowledge [2] Group 3: Broader Impact - The company initiated special activities for the 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week across its 16 municipal branches in the province [2] - Efforts were made to deliver financial risk prevention knowledge directly to rural and community areas, ensuring services are effectively implemented [2] - The initiative aims to contribute to a healthier and safer financial consumption environment [2]

中国财险公布25H1 业绩，上半年公司保险服务收入和净利润分别增长5.6%和32.3%至2490 亿元和245 亿元，综合成本率同比下降1.4pps 至94.8%，未年化ROE 同比上升1.3pps 至9.0%，中期每股派息同比增 加15.4%，未年化总投资收益率同比提升0.2pps 至2.6%，承保和投资业务均较为出色。 车险业务：严格执行报行合一降低费用率，车险质量持续提升 1. 中国财险的车险业务25 上半年保险服务收入同比增长3.5%至1503 亿元，综合成本率同比下降2.2pps 至94.2%，主要源于费用率同比下降4.1pps 至21.1%，而费用率的大幅下降则是源于监管和行业23 年末 起推行的一系列严格执行车险报行合一的举措，具体包括23 年9 月金融监管总局下发的《关于加强车险 费用管理的通知》、23 年11 月八家头部财产险公司制定签署的《车险合规经营自律公约》、24 年4 月 中保协召开会议要求落实监管总局在全行业试行"查处、通报、挂钩"三项机制等； 2. 中国财险的车险业务质量进一步提升，质量较高的家自车保险占车险总保费的比例较去年同期提升 1pps 至73.4%，自22H1 以来累计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is a leading property insurance company with continuously improving underwriting quality, supported by strong short-term and long-term fundamentals [5] - The company is expected to benefit from a significant decrease in natural disaster economic losses and regulatory changes that enhance the profitability of its auto insurance segment [7][10] - The report anticipates a positive impact on non-auto insurance performance due to upcoming regulatory policies [10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 18.75, with a market capitalization of HKD 417,051.85 million and a circulating market value of HKD 129,361.76 million [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported insurance service revenue and net profit growth of 5.6% and 32.3%, reaching RMB 249 billion and RMB 24.5 billion respectively [8] - The combined cost ratio decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 94.8%, and the annualized ROE increased by 1.3 percentage points to 9.0% [8] - The auto insurance segment saw a revenue increase of 3.5% to RMB 150.3 billion, with a combined cost ratio down by 2.2 percentage points to 94.2% [8] - Non-auto insurance revenue grew by 8.9% to RMB 98.8 billion, with a combined cost ratio down by 0.1 percentage points to 95.7% [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 42.5 billion, RMB 46.8 billion, and RMB 51.0 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, 10.1%, and 9.0% respectively [10] - The current closing price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 8.9 for 2025, 8.1 for 2026, and 7.5 for 2027 [10]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that the competitive threat from automotive manufacturers' affiliated insurance companies is limited, believing that China Pacific Insurance (02328) will benefit from strong pricing and claims capabilities, expecting it to achieve a turnaround faster than peers by 2025 [1] Company Summary - UBS has raised the profit forecast for China Pacific Insurance for 2025 to 2029 by 3% to 8%, increasing the target price from HKD 20.7 to HKD 21.8, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Industry Summary - UBS forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% for the insurance premiums of new energy vehicles in mainland China from 2024 to 2030, reaching RMB 592 billion, primarily driven by fleet size [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (CoR) for the new energy vehicle industry is projected to be 107% in 2024, with expectations of a turnaround by 2027 [1] - By 2030, the underwriting profit for new energy vehicles is expected to reach RMB 17 billion [1]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，汽车制造商附属保险公司的竞争威胁有限，相信凭借强大的定价 和理赔能力，中国财险(02328)将成为受益者，预计2025年比同行更快实现转机。因此，瑞银将中国财 险2025至2029年净利润预测分别上调3%至8%，目标价从20.7港元上调至21.8港元;重申"买入"评级。 瑞银预测2024年至2030年，内地新能源车保费年均复合增长率(CAGR)为27%，达到5,920亿人民币，主 要由车队规模推动。2024年新能源车行业综合成本率(CoR)为107%，预计2027年将实现转机。因此，瑞 银预测到2030年，新能源车承保利润将达到170亿人民币。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that macro narratives, disappointing domestic economic data for July, the Federal Reserve's open stance on interest rate cuts, and abundant market liquidity are key factors driving market strength. The report anticipates that after fluctuations, non-bank financials, represented by brokerages, are likely to show an upward trend [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the strengthening trends in the brokerage and financial IT sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Guolian Minsheng and those with valuation expansion potential like Dongfang Securities and Huatai Securities [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Points - The report covers the performance of the CSI 300 index at 4522 points (up 1.38%), the insurance index at 1288.79 points (down 0.7%), and the brokerage index at 7251.34 points (up 0.66%) for the week of September 8-12, 2025 [7]. - The report notes that the U.S. CPI for August met expectations, but initial jobless claims data was unexpectedly poor, reinforcing expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [7][8]. 2. Key Investment Portfolio 2.1 Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is viewed as having attractive valuation recovery potential, with specific recommendations for stocks such as China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance [12]. 2.2 Brokerage Sector - The report highlights the potential of mid-sized securities firms benefiting from innovation and market conditions, recommending stocks like Dongfang Wealth and Zhejiang Securities. It also suggests focusing on leading firms with diversified revenue structures such as Huatai Securities and China Galaxy Securities [13].

瑞银预测，中国内地新能源车保费将从2024年至2030年以27%的年复合增长率增长，主要受车队规模扩 大驱动。尽管2024年行业综合成本率预计为107%，但瑞银预计将在2027年实现扭转。考虑到汽车制造 商附属保险公司的竞争威胁有限，瑞银看好中国财险，认为其强大的定价和理赔能力将使其成为受益 者，并预计中国财险将比同行更快于2025年实现盈利转机。因此，瑞银上调了中国财险2025年至2029年 的净利润预测3%至8%，并将目标价从20.7港元上调至21.8港元，重申"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that the annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of insurance premiums for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in mainland China will be 27% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 592 billion yuan, primarily driven by fleet size [1] Industry Summary - The comprehensive cost ratio (CoR) for the NEV industry is expected to be 107% in 2024, with a turnaround anticipated by 2027 [1] - By 2030, underwriting profits for NEVs are projected to reach 17 billion yuan [1] Company Summary - UBS believes that the competitive threat from automotive manufacturers' affiliated insurance companies is limited, and that China Property & Casualty Insurance will benefit from strong pricing and claims capabilities [1] - The net profit forecasts for China Property & Casualty Insurance for 2025 to 2029 have been raised by 3% to 8%, with the target price increased from 20.7 HKD to 21.8 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The recent implementation of the public fund fee reform in three phases is driving high-quality development in the industry. Brokerage firms continue to show high growth in their mid-year performance, and market enthusiasm remains high. The valuation still offers cost-effectiveness, suggesting a focus on leading companies and high-performing stocks in the sector. In the insurance sector, the overall trend supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerating valuation recovery [2][4] - From the perspective of profitability and dividend stability, the report continues to recommend Jiangsu Jinzu, which has stable profit growth and dividend rates, China Ping An, which maintains a high dividend yield, and China Pacific Insurance, which has clear advantages in business model and market position. Additionally, based on performance elasticity and valuation levels, the report recommends Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.3% this week, with an excess return of -1.1% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 31 industries. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 8.2%, with an excess return of -6.7%, also ranking 21st out of 31 [5] - Market enthusiasm has slightly declined, with an average daily trading volume of 23,264.15 billion yuan, down 10.63% week-on-week, and an average turnover rate of 2.45%, down 34.86 basis points [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released the "Classification Evaluation Regulations for Futures Companies" [6] - Company announcements include Guosen Securities completing the registration procedures for issuing new shares to acquire 96.08% of Wanhe Securities, and Xibu Securities completing the transfer of shares for the acquisition of Guorong Securities [6] Brokerage Data Tracking - The report highlights a slight recovery in margin financing, with a balance of 2.34 trillion yuan, up 2.67% week-on-week. The stock pledge market remains cautious, with expectations of continued contraction in stock pledge scale, but improved asset yield rates are anticipated to enhance income performance [45][49]