Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Weichai Power (000338.SZ) A-shares from 31 RMB to 36 RMB and for H-shares from 31 HKD to 36 HKD, maintaining an optimistic outlook and a "Buy" rating [1] - Weichai Power's stock price has increased since October last year, outperforming the market, as investors begin to recognize the company's transition from traditional cyclical engine business to a growth platform focused on AIDC and new energy solutions [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the current valuation reassessment of Weichai Power is still in its early stages, with the market focusing on the strong momentum of AIDC backup engines, but not yet fully reflecting the scale of post-market opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Weichai Power (000338) A-shares from 31 RMB to 36 RMB and for H-shares from 31 HKD to 36 HKD, maintaining an optimistic outlook and a rating of "Overweight" [1] Group 1 - Weichai Power has seen its stock price increase since October last year, outperforming the market, as investors begin to recognize the company's transition from traditional cyclical engine business to a growth platform centered on AIDC and new energy solutions [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the current valuation reassessment of Weichai Power is still in its early stages, with the market focusing on the strong momentum of AIDC backup engines, but not yet fully reflecting the scale of opportunities in the aftermarket [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Weichai Power's stock price has outperformed the market since October last year, as investors begin to recognize the company's transition from a cyclical traditional engine business to a growth platform centered on AIDC and new energy solutions [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Weichai Power's stock price has shown significant growth, outperforming the market since October of the previous year [1] - The market is currently focused on the strong momentum of AIDC backup engines, but has not yet fully reflected the scale of opportunities in the aftermarket [1] Group 2: Valuation and Target Price - Morgan Stanley believes that the valuation re-rating of Weichai Power is still in its early stages [1] - The target price for Weichai Power's A-shares has been raised from 31 yuan to 36 yuan, and the target price for H-shares has been increased from 31 Hong Kong dollars to 36 Hong Kong dollars [1] - The rating for Weichai Power remains "overweight," and it continues to be one of the preferred stocks in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Weichai Power has risen significantly since the beginning of the year, driven by increased demand for large-bore diesel generators used in data centers, which are essential for power backup in AI infrastructure [2][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Weichai Power's stock price reached a historical high on January 22, with a market capitalization nearing 210 billion yuan as of January 27 [2]. - The stock has seen a cumulative increase of over 70% since hitting a low of 13.65 yuan per share on September 29, 2025 [5]. - The Hong Kong-listed Weichai Power has also experienced an increase of over 80% during the same period [5]. Group 2: Business Growth and Demand - The company anticipates delivering over 10,000 units of the M-series large-bore engine by 2025, with data center generator deliveries exceeding 1,400 units, marking a growth of approximately 260% year-on-year [4]. - The demand for large-bore diesel generators is linked to the rapid expansion of data centers, which are increasingly viewed as a critical component of computing infrastructure [5][8]. - Weichai Power's data center engine sales surged by 491% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued growth [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Financial Projections - According to CITIC Securities, Weichai Power's diesel generator sales could reach 2,800 units in 2026, with revenue from large-bore diesel generators projected to exceed 13 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of over 50% [9]. - The company has established a strong market presence, ranking third globally in generator sales, with a growing market share in large-bore engines [14]. - The market for large-bore diesel engines in China is expected to approach 10 billion yuan by 2025, with the global market potentially exceeding 40 billion yuan by 2026 [8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Production Capacity - The global high-end large-bore engine market is primarily dominated by international companies like Caterpillar and Cummins, with Weichai Power competing effectively [14]. - As of September 2024, Weichai Power's production capacity for large-bore engines reached 20,000 units, with plans for further expansion to meet future demand [14]. - The company has successfully integrated into the supply chains of major telecommunications operators and high-end data centers in North America [14]. Group 5: Industry Challenges and Risks - Despite the strong demand for AI-related infrastructure, potential uncertainties exist, particularly regarding the investment intensity in AI data centers, which could impact equipment demand [15]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and the stability of chip supplies are identified as significant risks that could affect the pace of data center construction and, consequently, the demand for backup power solutions [16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector, which is experiencing rapid growth in power generation demand, creating a significant contradiction with the limited capacity of gas turbines [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Internal Combustion Engines (ICE)** - Reciprocating internal combustion engines can utilize diesel, natural gas, and gasoline for power generation, serving as a primary power source for AIDC. - Wärtsilä currently has approximately 1,500 orders on hand, with 15% allocated for AIDC, and an annual delivery rate of 500 units [1][2]. - Major manufacturers like Yanmar, Wärtsilä, and Caterpillar have scheduled production until 2028, while most domestic manufacturers are still in the testing and certification phase, indicating a potential for rapid adoption by North American clients [2]. 2. **Aviation-Modified Fuels** - Aircraft engines and gas turbines share similar structures and principles, allowing retired engines to be modified for continued operation for an additional 20,000 to 50,000 hours, covering a power range of 30-60 MW, making them suitable as a primary power source for AIDC with strong stability [2]. - A total of 12,000 retired aircraft engines are available, and with a 20% modification ratio, there is significant potential for flexibility in power generation [2]. - Recommended companies include Hangya Technology (which has bulk orders for GEA aviation-modified engines) and Wanze Co., a new supplier of Siemens aviation-modified turbine blades [2]. 3. **Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC)** - SOFCs have an efficiency of approximately 60%, with near-zero emissions and only 9% redundancy required, compared to the 30% typically needed for gas turbines. Their modular delivery allows for rapid deployment within 2-3 quarters, significantly faster than gas turbines or nuclear power [3]. - Overseas AEP has made additional purchases of SOFCs, accumulating orders at a GW level, marking a milestone in the industry [3]. - New recommendations include Chunhui Quality Control (a core supplier for BE) and Weichai Power (a main manufacturer of SOFCs) [3]. Additional Important Insights - The current electricity shortage in North America is transitioning from reliance on gas turbines to internal combustion engines, aviation-modified fuels, and SOFCs, moving from logical reasoning to actual order fulfillment [3]. - The upcoming week marks the beginning of a busy period for foreign leading companies in financial report disclosures, with expectations for order, capacity, and performance guidance to be further upgraded, indicating strong catalysts for the market [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that JPMorgan has increased its long position in Weichai Power Co., Ltd. - H shares from 7.96% to 8.24% as of January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The increase in JPMorgan's holdings indicates a growing confidence in Weichai Power's performance and potential [1] - The change in ownership percentage reflects a strategic investment decision by JPMorgan, suggesting positive market sentiment towards the company [1] - This adjustment in holdings may influence other investors' perceptions and actions regarding Weichai Power [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup's report indicates that heavy truck demand in China is expected to maintain stable growth this year, leading to an increase in the target price for Weichai Power (02338) from HKD 21.3 to HKD 34, with the rating upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - The report suggests that the impairment related to Kion last year will only have a one-time impact, while future benefits will arise from cost reduction measures [1] - Strong demand from AI data centers for solid oxide fuel cells and energy supply is anticipated, prompting Weichai Power to strategically shift more resources from the machinery sector to the energy supply sector, supporting long-term growth [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has revised its sales forecasts for Weichai's large engines and engines for data centers for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The net profit forecast for Weichai Power has been increased by 1% to 4% [1]

Group 1 - Citi's report indicates that after reviewing recent dealer and industry data, it believes that the demand for heavy trucks in China may maintain stable growth this year [1] - The target price for Weichai Power (000338)(02338) has been raised from HKD 21.3 to HKD 34, with the rating upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - The report suggests that the impairment related to Kion last year will only have a one-time impact, and future benefits will arise from related cost reduction measures [1] Group 2 - Strong demand from AI data centers for solid oxide fuel cells and active and passive energy supply is noted, leading to expectations that Weichai Power may strategically shift more resources from the machinery sector to the energy supply sector [1] - This strategic shift is anticipated to support the long-term growth of the group [1] - The sales forecasts for large engines and engines used in data centers for 2025 to 2027 have been upgraded, with net profit forecasts increased by 1% to 4% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the National Index of Free Cash Flow, which has seen a rise of 0.65% as of January 26, 2026, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as silver and various industrial companies [1] - The current market has 101 ETFs tracking free cash flow-related indices, with a total scale of 29.291 billion yuan as of January 21 [1] - Western Securities notes that during the Kondratiev wave downturn, geopolitical uncertainties have increased, leading to a natural preference for gold or stable cash flow "safe assets," which has re-evaluated the dividend strategy in the A-share market [1] - The free cash flow strategy has shown advantages over the dividend strategy, particularly in bull markets, as it has not underperformed the market in bear markets [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow include major companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and SAIC Motor Corporation, accounting for 51.95% of the index [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF managed by Harvest (159221) closely tracks the National Index of Free Cash Flow, aiming to create a combination of profitability quality and dividend potential [2] - Investors can also access the cash flow ETF through the Harvest's off-market connection (024574) to seize investment opportunities [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - **Companies Involved**: Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) - **Industry**: Diesel and gas generator manufacturing, heavy-duty truck export market Key Points and Arguments Weichai Power - **Diesel Generator Business**: - Benefiting from demand growth in North America and China, with global demand expected to reach 44,000 units by 2028 - Anticipated market share of 11%-16%, translating to 5,000-7,000 units shipped - Projected profit from data center sector could reach 3.5-5 billion CNY, with total profit estimated at 4.5-6 billion CNY [1][3] - **Gas Generator Business**: - Strong growth prospects due to power shortages in North America - Estimated new power demand in the U.S. for AIDC is about 40-50 GW by 2028-2030 - If Weichai captures 20%-30% of the primary power market, total power could reach 1.6 GW by 2030, contributing approximately 3 billion CNY in revenue and 1-1.5 billion CNY in net profit, with a potential market value of 30 billion CNY [4] - **SOFC Business**: - Rapid development since 2018, with plans to reach 1 GW capacity by 2030 - Expected revenue of 10 billion CNY and net profit of about 2 billion CNY, corresponding to a potential market value of 50 billion CNY [5] - **Overall Financial Outlook**: - By 2025, non-electric energy business expected to contribute around 9.5 billion CNY in net profit, with heavy-duty truck industry accounting for 50%-60% - Overall net profit projected at 14-15 billion CNY, with energy sector contributing 20%-25% [6] China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) - **Export Performance**: - Leading heavy-duty truck exporter, with a projected export share of 45% in 2025 - Total exports expected to reach 365,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 11%, with non-Russian exports growing by 46% [7][8] - **Profit Structure**: - Expected profit of 6.5-6.6 billion CNY in 2025, primarily from exports, followed by domestic parts and aftermarket services - Export profits estimated at 2,000-4,000 CNY per unit, contributing around 2.9 billion CNY to total profits [9] - **2026 Performance Outlook**: - If exports reach 180,000 units, total profit could exceed 8 billion CNY - Positive trends in export orders with a year-on-year growth of 20%-30% expected [10] - **Future Market Valuation**: - Anticipated market value for CNHTC to exceed 100 billion CNY in 2026, with a current valuation of 12-13 times PE [11] Industry Trends - **Heavy-Duty Truck Market**: - Positive outlook for 2026, with expectations of sustained performance in non-Russian regions - Anticipated recovery in domestic demand, leading to stable or slightly increased sales [12] Additional Important Insights - Weichai Power's expansion plans and market share projections indicate a strong competitive position in both diesel and gas generator markets - CNHTC's export growth reflects a robust recovery and increasing demand in international markets, particularly outside of Russia - Both companies are positioned to benefit from macroeconomic trends, including energy shortages and infrastructure investments in their respective sectors