2025 年 10 月 10 日 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：SMM，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,640 | 0 | -380 | 145 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 210,531 | -17,589 | -143,236 | -149,325 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 176,563 | 2,165 | -94,368 | -108,886 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,765 | -595 | -615 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 201,311 | 37,997 | -40,705 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "Renewable Energy 2025" report, projecting strong growth in global renewable energy capacity despite challenges such as supply chain pressures, funding constraints, grid integration issues, and policy uncertainties [1][4] - From 2025 to 2030, an additional 4,600 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity is expected to be added, roughly equivalent to the current total capacity of China, the EU, and Japan combined, representing a doubling of the previous five-year increment [1] Renewable Energy Growth Drivers - Solar photovoltaic (PV) is anticipated to be the primary driver of this growth, expected to account for around 80% of the new renewable energy capacity additions over the next five years due to declining costs and expedited project approvals [3] - Wind energy is projected to follow as the second-largest contributor, with significant growth expected in China, Europe, and India despite short-term supply chain challenges [3] Regional Dynamics - Emerging economies are becoming new engines of renewable energy growth, particularly in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, where competitive costs and enhanced policy support are driving accelerated development [3] - Countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several Southeast Asian nations are expected to see rapid growth in solar PV over the next five years, becoming important growth poles in the global renewable energy landscape [3] Challenges and Policy Recommendations - The report highlights ongoing challenges such as supply chain stability, funding accessibility, and lagging grid infrastructure upgrades that could hinder the pace of renewable energy development [4] - IEA Director Fatih Birol emphasizes the need for policymakers to prioritize supply chain security and grid integration to overcome these obstacles and ensure the achievement of growth targets [4] Energy Transition Trends - The predicted growth scale underscores the irreversible trend of global energy transition, driven by the dual demands of climate change response and energy security [4] - As technology continues to advance and policy support strengthens, renewable energy is set to reshape the global energy supply structure and play a crucial role in achieving carbon neutrality goals [4]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts strong growth in global renewable energy capacity despite challenges such as supply chain issues, funding pressures, grid integration challenges, and policy uncertainties [1] - The report forecasts that the global renewable energy capacity will increase by 4,600 gigawatts (GW) from 2025 to 2030, roughly equivalent to the current total capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined [1] - Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to drive approximately 80% of the growth in global renewable energy capacity due to its low costs and expedited approval processes [1] Renewable Energy Growth Drivers - Wind energy is projected to have the second-largest share in new renewable energy capacity, with significant growth anticipated in China, Europe, and India despite short-term challenges [1] - Other renewable technologies such as hydropower, biomass, and geothermal energy will continue to play important roles in supporting power systems and enhancing flexibility [1] Regional Insights - Emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are experiencing faster growth in renewable energy due to cost competitiveness and stronger policy support, with many governments launching new bidding plans and raising development targets [1] - Solar PV is expected to see rapid growth in countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several Southeast Asian nations over the next five years [1] Policy Considerations - As the role of renewable energy in power systems increases, policymakers are advised to closely monitor challenges related to supply chain security and grid integration [1]

AI服务器产业链，不只有被炒了好几波的PCB、光模块、液冷，也有其他好的题材，像我们近期发了很多次的Memory，和这篇文章要讲的电力/储能。 今天星球中放了美光, 海力士和三星的财务模型，有兴趣的读者可以星球查看。 根据谷歌数据中心一位工作人员的看法，现在获取 GPU 和 TPU 已非瓶颈所在，电力问题，已经成为了他们最大的瓶颈，包括可用电力不足、供电稳定 性差。 下面这个图前几天也发过，奥特曼讲到2033年OpenAI规划250GW，这比目前整个印度的耗电还要高，可以预见未来几年对电力的需求得有多大。 在前天SemiAnalysis的创始人Dylan的播客中，他也提到：过去40年电力基础设施建设严重不足（例如，新发电厂缺乏建设，仅有煤炭向天然气的过 渡），导致关键设备供应链中断（如vanova的气体反应机、三菱的变压器线圈供应受限和产能不足），加上劳动力短缺和监管障碍（如严格法规和许可 流程），共同造成电力供应能力薄弱；同时，AI数据中心的快速增长（如一吉瓦数据中心相当于费城的用电量）大幅增加了需求，使电网不堪重负，迫 使电网商（如Texas和PJM）实施限电措施（提前通知削减大型用户一半供电），以优先保 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has entered the top ten of the Global Innovation Index for the first time, establishing itself as a global innovation leader and a significant player in the innovation landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to China's Innovation Success - Continuous focus on education and R&D policies has been pivotal in China's innovation achievements [3]. - Major companies like Huawei, Tencent, and Alibaba have emerged as global leaders in corporate R&D contributions [3]. - The presence of top global researchers in China is increasing, alongside a surge in private capital investment [3]. - An active innovation ecosystem is fostering growth in various sectors [3]. Group 2: Global Innovation Challenges and Opportunities - The actual growth rate of global corporate R&D spending is only 1%, the lowest since the financial crisis, indicating a cautious investment climate [3]. - Despite the overall decline in investment, significant advancements in green technology are noted, with solar photovoltaic costs down by 12.4%, wind energy costs down by 3.4%, and new energy battery prices down by 20% [3]. - The number of venture capital transactions has decreased for three consecutive quarters, excluding substantial AI-related deals, reflecting a general investor caution [3]. Group 3: Climate Challenges and Emerging Economies - Climate change remains a pressing issue, with 2024 expected to set a new record for global temperatures, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate challenges [4]. - Emerging economies, including China, India, Vietnam, and Brazil, are becoming key players in promoting and adopting green technologies like electric vehicles [4]. - The forum emphasized the shift from technology-driven to scenario-driven innovation, focusing on accelerating the commercialization of green technologies [4]. Group 4: Shanghai's Green Technology Initiatives - Shanghai has laid out 15 key areas for green and low-carbon transformation, including offshore wind power and new energy storage [5]. - The city has established platforms such as green technology banks and low-carbon concept verification centers to support these initiatives [5]. - Notable projects include the first CCUS demonstration facility compatible with coal and gas emissions and the first large-scale commercial operation of a green methanol integrated demonstration project [5].

Core Insights - Huaneng Hydropower (600025.SH) reported strong financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit both showing growth compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The company expressed satisfaction with a revenue growth of approximately 9.08% and a net profit increase of about 10.54%, indicating these results were within expectations [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached approximately 12.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.08% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was around 4.61 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.54% compared to the previous year [2] - Operating cash flow net amount was about 8.61 billion yuan, up 14.30% year-on-year [2] - Total profit for the first half of the year increased by 9.78% compared to the same period last year [2] - Earnings per share rose by 13.64% year-on-year [2] Operational Highlights - The increase in revenue and profit was attributed to a significant rise in installed capacity for renewable energy and a 12.97% increase in electricity generation, totaling 52.75 billion kWh [2] - The company benefited from favorable water conditions in the Lancang River basin, which were approximately 10-20% above the historical average [2] - The total installed capacity reached 33.54 million kW by the end of June 2025 [2] R&D Expenditure - The company reported a discrepancy in R&D expenditure, stating that over 200 million yuan was committed to R&D contracts, while actual R&D expenses for the first half were approximately 23.15 million yuan, a decrease of 63.56% year-on-year [5][6] - The lower R&D spending was attributed to project progress affecting expenditure [5] - The company plans to increase R&D investment in the future, with the 200 million yuan figure representing future commitments rather than incurred costs [9] Industry Context - The overall electricity consumption in China showed a growth of 8.6% in July 2025, with total electricity consumption for the first half of the year reaching 4.84 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [10] - The total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.65 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar showing significant growth [11] - Huaneng Hydropower is positioned as a key player in the clean energy sector, focusing on hydropower and renewable energy development in the Lancang River basin [13][14] Future Outlook - The company is working towards achieving its annual targets and has plans for significant capital expenditures in renewable energy projects [15] - Huaneng Hydropower aims to enhance its operational capacity and maintain growth in the renewable energy sector, with ongoing projects in hydropower and other renewable sources [15]

Core Insights - The data indicates that by 2025, China's import and export scale will show steady growth, with improved development quality, although export growth rate is expected to slow compared to previous years [1] - Key contributors to exports include Hong Kong, Vietnam, and India, while countries like Australia, South Korea, Russia, Brazil, and Chile are experiencing significant trade deficits [1] - The trade balance effect of Chinese automobiles is expected to be favorable, contributing positively to the overall trade dynamics [1] Export Performance - The average export prices of certain categories, such as solar photovoltaic products and steel, have declined rapidly, while industries like motorcycles show higher development quality and good performance in the automotive sector [1] - The overall performance of Chinese consumer goods is strengthening in the global market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reports that renewable energy has become the cheapest source of electricity globally, with a record growth expected in 2024, avoiding $467 billion in fossil fuel usage [1][6]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - In 2024, global renewable energy capacity is projected to increase by 582 GW, marking a 19.8% rise from 2023, the highest annual growth rate in history [4]. - The surge in capacity is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of solar and onshore wind energy, supported by mature supply chains and strong policy frameworks [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Competitiveness - Renewable energy is not only crucial for environmental protection but also economically superior to fossil fuels, as evidenced by technological advancements and competitive supply chains [3][6]. - In 2024, 91% of newly commissioned utility-scale capacity has a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than the cheapest new fossil fuel alternatives [7]. Group 3: Cost Trends - The LCOE for new utility-scale onshore wind projects is the lowest among renewable sources at $0.034 per kWh, followed by solar PV at $0.043 per kWh and hydropower at $0.057 per kWh [7]. - From 2010 to 2024, the total installation costs for solar PV have decreased to $691 per kW, onshore wind to $1,041 per kW, and offshore wind to $2,852 per kW [8]. Group 4: Regional Cost Competitiveness - In the onshore wind sector, China ($0.029 per kWh) and Brazil ($0.030 per kWh) have LCOEs below the global average [12]. - In the solar PV sector, China ($0.033 per kWh) and India ($0.038 per kWh) also have costs below the average [13]. - Average offshore wind prices in Asia are $0.078 per kWh, slightly lower than Europe’s $0.080 per kWh [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2029, global installation costs for solar PV are expected to drop to $388 per kW, onshore wind to $861 per kW, and offshore wind to $2,316 per kW [15]. - The report indicates that technological maturity and strengthened supply chains will drive long-term cost reductions, although geopolitical risks and supply chain bottlenecks may lead to short-term cost increases [16].

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of international economic and trade rules is significantly impacting the global manufacturing landscape, necessitating China's manufacturing sector to adapt and enhance its global presence and quality of international operations [1] Group 1: Global Investment Trends - Since 2015, Chinese enterprises have accelerated their overseas expansion, with foreign direct investment (FDI) flow reaching $177.29 billion in 2023, accounting for 11.4% of global FDI, maintaining a position among the top three globally for 12 consecutive years [1][2] - In 2023, the proportion of China's FDI flow to GDP, manufacturing value added, and manufacturing exports were 1%, 3.8%, and 6.1% respectively, all below the world average, indicating significant room for growth in global manufacturing layout [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - China's manufacturing globalization is supported by its strong industrial chain and supply chain advantages, with the country being the second-largest economy and possessing a complete industrial system across all categories recognized by the United Nations [2] - Over 40% of 500 major industrial products produced in China rank first globally, showcasing the country's robust industrial competitiveness [2] Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - The deepening of economic globalization presents strategic opportunities for Chinese manufacturing to break traditional market boundaries and innovate, enhancing resilience by optimizing costs related to labor, tariffs, and shipping [3] - Collaboration with other developing countries can extend local supply chains and foster mutual benefits, while expanding the scope of resource integration can stimulate innovation [3] Group 4: Recommendations for Global Expansion - To support manufacturing enterprises in global operations, it is essential to strengthen the foundation for "going out" by leveraging China's market size, complete industrial system, and talent resources, while aligning with international trade rules [4] - Enhancing comprehensive competitiveness requires a focus on technology, market awareness, and local integration, ensuring that enterprises can effectively respond to local market demands [5] - The integration of advanced manufacturing with modern services is crucial for improving international competitiveness, necessitating a shift towards service-oriented manufacturing [5][6] Group 5: Collaborative Ecosystem - Building a global cooperation network involves differentiated layouts based on regional resource endowments and enhancing regional economic collaboration to optimize production factors across borders [6] - Promoting a collaborative development ecosystem through partnerships with various countries can stabilize global supply chains and enhance cooperation in industrial development [6]

Core Viewpoint - China's energy strategy is crucial for national security, especially in the context of ongoing global geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, which impact energy supply and security [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Production and Consumption - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for nearly half of global coal production and consumption, approximately 4 billion tons, with coal making up about 54% of its primary energy consumption [3][4]. - As of April 2023, China is also the largest renewable energy country, with solar photovoltaic capacity of about 1 billion kilowatts, representing 40% of global capacity, and wind power capacity of 550 million kilowatts, accounting for 45% of the global total [4][6]. - China ranks as the seventh largest oil producer and the fourth largest natural gas producer globally, while being the largest importer of both oil and natural gas, with a projected oil import dependency of around 72% in 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Energy Security Assessment - China's energy security can be described as sensitive but not fragile, with a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 85%, as coal does not require imports, and non-fossil energy sources are domestically produced [7][8]. - The implementation of the "Oil and Gas Increase Storage and Production Seven-Year Action Plan" has led to an increase in domestic oil production from 189 million tons in 2018 to 213 million tons in 2024, with a net increase of 4 million tons annually [8][9]. - Current global oil and gas markets are characterized by oversupply, benefiting China's import strategy, as major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing their output [9][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Integration - China has established a diversified energy import strategy, integrating into the global energy market through various oil and gas cooperation projects across 35 countries, including significant pipelines and strategic partnerships [10][11]. - The development of energy corridors, such as the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline and the China-Central Asia gas pipeline, has become essential for ensuring energy security and is a hallmark of the Belt and Road Initiative [11][12]. Group 4: Future Energy Transition - The transition to renewable energy is critical, with a focus on key minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for energy storage technologies, highlighting the need for domestic production capabilities to reduce import dependency [13][14]. - China's energy strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between traditional fossil fuels and renewable energy, with coal's share expected to decrease while natural gas consumption is projected to rise until around 2040 [14][40].