Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.18-2.23 billion yuan in 2024H1, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%-27.2%, and net profit of 220-270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.0%-162.7%, exceeding expectations [3] - The new game cycle has begun, and the profit inflection point has emerged, driven by the successful launch of self-developed games such as "出发吧麦芬" and "铃兰之剑" [3] - TapTap's monetization efficiency is expected to improve steadily, benefiting from increased industry advertising demand [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,433 million yuan in 2022 to 6,154 million yuan in 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase of 73.24% in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive, reaching 616.44 million yuan in 2024, up from a loss of 553.50 million yuan in 2022 [2] - EPS is forecasted to increase from -1.15 yuan in 2022 to 1.45 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio of 16.34x in 2024 [2] Game Operations - The revenue growth in 2024H1 is primarily driven by new games "出发吧麦芬" and "铃兰之剑," partially offset by the natural decline in revenue from existing games [3] - "出发吧麦芬" has performed better than expected, with stable rankings on the iOS game bestseller list, and its profit elasticity is expected to be released in 2024H2 [3] - The newly launched "心动小镇" has shown excellent user retention and commercialization potential, while "铃兰之剑" has been launched overseas, with "出发吧麦芬" planned for release in Japan and South Korea in late 2024 [3] TapTap Performance - TapTap's information service revenue in China continued to grow year-on-year in 2024H1, driven by increased advertising demand and the launch of exclusive self-developed games [3] - TapTap's MAU in China has rebounded, and its advertising conversion efficiency has been optimized, leading to steady monetization efficiency improvement [3] - With the normalization of marketing and the launch of new games, TapTap's MAU and revenue are expected to continue growing in 2024H2 and beyond [3] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 22.75 HKD, with a one-year low/high range of 7.47/23.80 HKD [5] - The P/B ratio is 6.40x, and the market capitalization is 10,935.18 million HKD [5] Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to improve significantly from -4.86% in 2023 to 26.51% in 2024 [9] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 57% from 2024 to 2026 [9] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 16.34x in 2024 to 14.41x in 2026, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [9] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow is expected to increase significantly from 235.45 million yuan in 2023 to 1,080.96 million yuan in 2024 [8] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 4,409.44 million yuan in 2023 to 6,783.28 million yuan in 2026, driven by increased liquidity and non-current assets [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 57.62% in 2023 to 41.70% in 2026, reflecting improved financial health [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in H1 2024, driven by new game launches and increased revenue from TapTap, with projected revenue of HKD 2.18-2.23 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4%-27.2% [3] - The net profit for H1 2024 is anticipated to be between HKD 220-270 million, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 114.0%-162.7% [3] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of HKD 783 million, HKD 1.137 billion, and HKD 1.246 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.6, HKD 2.4, and HKD 2.6 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 3.431 billion in 2022, with a slight decrease to HKD 3.389 billion in 2023. The forecast for 2024 is HKD 6.005 billion, indicating a significant increase [6] - The net profit was negative in 2022 at HKD -554 million, improved to HKD -83 million in 2023, and is projected to turn positive in 2024 with a profit of HKD 783 million [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 53.5% in 2022 to 63.7% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to shift from -16.1% in 2022 to 13.0% in 2024 [6] Game Launches and User Growth - The game "Heart Town" has surpassed 20 million downloads on TapTap since its launch on July 17, 2024, and has achieved a rating of 8.6 on the platform [4] - The game "Start Up Muffin" has maintained a position in the top 40 of the App Store's best-selling list since its launch on May 15, 2024, with a mini-game version launched on July 17, 2024 [4] - The self-developed game "Bellflower Sword" launched globally on August 1, 2024, and is currently ranked in the top 20 on the App Store in Japan and South Korea [4] Advertising Revenue and Market Position - The exclusive game "Heart Town" has driven an increase in TapTap's user base, contributing to a rise in advertising revenue due to heightened demand from new game launches [5] - TapTap's ranking on the App Store has reached an all-time high of 11, benefiting from a zero-commission policy and a strong core user base [5]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in 2024H1, with revenue expected to reach 2.18-2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%-27.2%, and net profit expected to be 220-270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114%-162.7% [2] - New games, particularly *Departure, Muffin* and *Heartbeat Town*, drove significant growth in the gaming business, with *Departure, Muffin* maintaining a top 10 position on the iOS game bestseller list in mainland China for most of its first month [2] - TapTap platform is expected to benefit from the launch of new games, with *Departure, Muffin* and *Heartbeat Town* driving user growth, as both games are exclusive to TapTap on Android [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is projected to be 4.97/5.68/6.34 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 505/664/764 million yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.28/15.42/13.4X for 2024/2025/2026 [3] - Revenue growth rates for 2024/2025/2026 are projected at 46.61%, 14.25%, and 11.73%, respectively, with net profit growth rates at 708.09%, 31.53%, and 15.05% [5] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin improved significantly, reaching 62.9% in 2024E, up from 53.5% in 2022A [6] - ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to rise to 22.81% in 2024E, compared to -29.31% in 2022A [5] - Operating cash flow per share is projected to increase to 1.83 yuan in 2024E, up from -0.68 yuan in 2022A [5] Game Performance and Strategy - *Departure, Muffin* achieved 1.97 million downloads on TapTap with a rating of 7.1, while *Heartbeat Town* reached 19.87 million downloads with a rating of 8.7 [2] - The company's strategy for *Heartbeat Town* focuses on user accumulation in the early stages, with expectations of increased revenue as user acquisition progresses [2] - TapTap is expected to benefit from the launch of major games like *DNF Mobile*, *Eternal Calamity Mobile*, and *Zenless Zone Zero* in 2024 [2]

心动公司 20240722_原文 2024 年 07 月 22 日 23:31 发言人 00:03 大家好,欢迎参加开源传媒传媒周一谈在论心动公司核心推荐逻辑电话会议。目前所有参会者均处于静 音状态,下面开始播报每次声明,声明完毕后主持人可以直接开始发言,谢谢。本次会议仅面向开源证 券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户,仅供在新媒体背景下研究观点的及时交流。第三方专家发言内容仅 代表其个人观点、所有信息或所表述的的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。未经开源证券事先书面许 可,任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读。涉嫌违反上述情形的,我们将保留一切法的权利。感 谢您的理解和支持,谢谢。 发言人 01:01 各位投资者,大家晚上好啊。欢迎参加我们开源传媒互联网团队,我们的这个传媒周一谈本周的这样的 一个线上路演,我是开源传媒互联网团队首席分析师方光照,今天我们主要是给投资者再分享一下,我 们近期对于心动公司的一个,推荐的核心逻辑。那由我跟我们团队的田鹏,一起给各位投资者来,做这 样的一个观点的分享汇报。首先我就先简单的讲讲我们对于心动这一轮推荐的一个整体的一个核心的逻 辑。好吧。然后待会儿一会儿就由田鹏再来具体的讲讲我 ...

大家好欢迎参加开源传媒传媒周一谈在论心动公司核心推荐逻辑电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报名字声明声明完毕后主持人可以直接开始发言谢谢本次会议紧面向开源证券的专业投资机构客户或受益者 背景下研究观点的及时交流第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议未经开源证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持 谢谢 各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎参加我们开源传媒互联网团队我们的传媒周一谈本周的这样一个线上路演我是开源传媒互联网团队首席分析师方光照那么今天我们主要是给投资者再分享一下我们近期对于心动公司的一个推荐的核心逻辑由我跟我们团队的田鹏一起给各位投资者来做这样的一个观点的分享汇报 那首先我就先简单的讲一讲我们对于心动这一轮推荐的一个整体的一个核心的逻辑然后待会一会就由田鹏再来具体的讲讲我们心动的深度报告以及相关的几篇跟踪的报告的一个详细的这样一个逻辑 那么心动来讲我们其实有对公司持续的跟踪尤其是在今年那么持续的在推荐基于我们看到公司它的一个非常大的一个编辑的变化就是公司的自研游戏这一块开始 像出发往 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The self-developed life simulation mobile game "Heartbeat Town" officially launched on July 17, with pre-downloads ranking No 1 on the iOS free list and TapTap hot list, with over 300,000 pre-registrations and over 800,000 downloads on TapTap, with a score of 8 8 The game is expected to attract users through quality and word-of-mouth, retain users through rich content and strong social interaction, and monetize through low-priced skins and outfits, driving stable revenue growth [2] - The WeChat mini-game version of "Let's Go Muffin" launched on July 17, with the game maintaining a top 25 position on the iOS bestseller list and over 3 million downloads across all platforms The mini-game version is expected to cover more Android users and non-core players, further boosting overall game revenue [3] - TapTap is expected to benefit from increased advertising demand due to the launch of numerous new games in 2024, including Tencent's "DNF Mobile" and "StarCraft: Dawn", NetEase's "Naraka: Bladepoint" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds", and miHoYo's "Zenless Zone Zero" The platform's zero-commission policy and large core user base are expected to drive user growth [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 6,005 million yuan in 2024, 7,313 million yuan in 2025, and 7,955 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 77 2%, 21 8%, and 8 8% respectively [5] - Net profit is projected to be 783 million yuan in 2024, 1,137 million yuan in 2025, and 1,246 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 1,043 4%, 45 1%, and 9 6% respectively [5] - Gross margin is projected to be 63 7% in 2024, 64 9% in 2025, and 65 2% in 2026 [5] - Net margin is projected to be 13 0% in 2024, 15 5% in 2025, and 15 7% in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to be 31 4% in 2024, 31 3% in 2025, and 25 6% in 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to be 1 6 yuan in 2024, 2 4 yuan in 2025, and 2 6 yuan in 2026 [5] - P/E ratio is projected to be 9 3x in 2024, 6 4x in 2025, and 5 8x in 2026 [5] - P/B ratio is projected to be 2 6x in 2024, 1 8x in 2025, and 1 3x in 2026 [5] Company Overview - Current stock price is 16 22 HKD [6] - One-year high and low are 22 25 HKD and 7 47 HKD respectively [6] - Total market capitalization is 7 796 billion HKD [6] - Total shares outstanding are 481 million [6] - Turnover rate over the past 3 months is 50 73% [6]

公 司 研 究 传媒/游戏Ⅱ 心动公司(02400.HK) 《心动小镇》定档 7 月 17 日,新游或继续驱动成长 2024 年 07 月 02 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级:买入(维持) | 方光照(分析师) | 田鹏(分析师) | |--------------------------|--------------------------| | fangguangzhao@kysec.cn | tianpeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号: S0790520030004 | 证书编号: S0790523090001 | | 日期 | 2024/7/2 | |-------------------------|--------------| | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 18.220 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 22.250/7.470 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 87.57 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 87.57 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 4.81 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 4.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 52.34 | ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][2] Core Views - **Game Performance**: "Let's Go Muffin" has maintained a stable position in the iOS game bestseller list, with its ranking fluctuating but generally staying within the top 10. The game's revenue rebounded after the launch of a new event, with iOS revenue estimated at $32.54 million as of June 30, 2024. Total revenue across all platforms is estimated at approximately RMB 464 million [1] - **New Game Launches**: Heartbeat's self-developed games, including "Heartbeat Town" and "Sword of Linlang," are expected to launch in the second half of 2024. "Heartbeat Town" has a TapTap rating of 9.0 and over 2.3 million pre-registrations, while "Sword of Linlang" has a rating of 7.7 and nearly 2 million downloads [1] - **TapTap Platform**: The platform's daily downloads on iOS reached 31,000 in the first half of 2024, a 103% increase year-over-year. The platform's MAU is expected to recover to over 40 million, driven by the launch of high-quality games such as "Let's Go Muffin" and "DNF" mobile. The removal of "DNF" mobile from some Android app stores may benefit TapTap's ad revenue [1] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue and Profit**: Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly increased to RMB 4.71 billion, RMB 5.09 billion, and RMB 5.35 billion, respectively, representing increases of 10%, 4%, and 2% from previous forecasts. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 421 million, RMB 597 million, and RMB 781 million for the same periods [1][2] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 20x, 14x, and 11x, respectively [2] Market Data - **Market Capitalization**: The company's total market capitalization is HKD 9.046 billion, with a total share capital of 481 million shares [3] - **Stock Performance**: Over the past year, the stock has shown a relative return of 1.9% and an absolute return of -4.5% [4] Game Revenue Analysis - **Revenue Trends**: "Let's Go Muffin" has shown strong revenue performance since its launch, with daily revenue peaking at RMB 2.5 million on June 14, 2024. The game's revenue has been supported by in-app purchases and events [6]

【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 心 动 公 司 (02400.HK) TapTap 游戏发布会举行,关注《心动小镇》上线表现 核心观点: ⚫ 事件:TapTap 游戏发布会于 6 月 28 日线上举行,根据公司官方微信, 本次发布会为开放式主题,"玩家的夏天,从___开始"。发布会共更新 44 款游戏,分为"移植佳作","续写新篇","次元幻想","YEAH!", "独家游戏"和"聚光灯游戏"六个篇章。聚焦多种品类和风格产品。 ⚫ 头部游戏借力 TapTap 宣传,带动平台活跃提升。本次发布会参会游 戏包括《永劫无间》、《绝区零》、《剑与远征:启程》、《燕云十六声》等 头部大厂重磅产品。其中《永劫无间》更新全新英雄"岳山",《燕云十 六声》首次曝光了新武器"绳镖"。我们认为,知名游戏公司的头部产 品与 TapTap 合作发布更新,有利于平台后续的用户活跃增长。除大厂 产品外,真人恋爱互动电影《完蛋!我被美女包围了》移动版预计 24 年 Q3 上线,TapTap 平台已于 6 月 28 日开放限量体验。建议关注重 点产品密集上线带动下,平台用户活跃表现。 ⚫ 自研游戏测试定档,关注后续上线表现。据公司官微, ...

传媒 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 6 月 26 日 02400.HK 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:港币 19.08 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 心动公司 (64%) (50%) (35%) (21%) (7%) 8% Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24 心动公司 恒生指数 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 92.5 (7.2) 13.4 (10.0) 相对恒生指数 85.2 (4.0) 4.2 8.3 | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | 480.64 | |-----------------------------------------------|----------| | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | 480.64 | | 总市值 ( 港币 百万 ) | 9,170.59 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 港币 百万 ) | 75.96 | | 主要股东 | | | Happy Today Holding Limited | 32.8 | | 资料来源:公 ...