Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in 2024H1, with revenue expected to reach 2.18-2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%-27.2%, and net profit expected to be 220-270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114%-162.7% [2] - New games, particularly *Departure, Muffin* and *Heartbeat Town*, drove significant growth in the gaming business, with *Departure, Muffin* maintaining a top 10 position on the iOS game bestseller list in mainland China for most of its first month [2] - TapTap platform is expected to benefit from the launch of new games, with *Departure, Muffin* and *Heartbeat Town* driving user growth, as both games are exclusive to TapTap on Android [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is projected to be 4.97/5.68/6.34 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 505/664/764 million yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.28/15.42/13.4X for 2024/2025/2026 [3] - Revenue growth rates for 2024/2025/2026 are projected at 46.61%, 14.25%, and 11.73%, respectively, with net profit growth rates at 708.09%, 31.53%, and 15.05% [5] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin improved significantly, reaching 62.9% in 2024E, up from 53.5% in 2022A [6] - ROE (Return on Equity) is expected to rise to 22.81% in 2024E, compared to -29.31% in 2022A [5] - Operating cash flow per share is projected to increase to 1.83 yuan in 2024E, up from -0.68 yuan in 2022A [5] Game Performance and Strategy - *Departure, Muffin* achieved 1.97 million downloads on TapTap with a rating of 7.1, while *Heartbeat Town* reached 19.87 million downloads with a rating of 8.7 [2] - The company's strategy for *Heartbeat Town* focuses on user accumulation in the early stages, with expectations of increased revenue as user acquisition progresses [2] - TapTap is expected to benefit from the launch of major games like *DNF Mobile*, *Eternal Calamity Mobile*, and *Zenless Zone Zero* in 2024 [2]

心动公司 20240722_原文 2024 年 07 月 22 日 23:31 发言人 00:03 大家好,欢迎参加开源传媒传媒周一谈在论心动公司核心推荐逻辑电话会议。目前所有参会者均处于静 音状态,下面开始播报每次声明,声明完毕后主持人可以直接开始发言,谢谢。本次会议仅面向开源证 券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户,仅供在新媒体背景下研究观点的及时交流。第三方专家发言内容仅 代表其个人观点、所有信息或所表述的的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。未经开源证券事先书面许 可,任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读。涉嫌违反上述情形的,我们将保留一切法的权利。感 谢您的理解和支持,谢谢。 发言人 01:01 各位投资者,大家晚上好啊。欢迎参加我们开源传媒互联网团队,我们的这个传媒周一谈本周的这样的 一个线上路演,我是开源传媒互联网团队首席分析师方光照,今天我们主要是给投资者再分享一下,我 们近期对于心动公司的一个,推荐的核心逻辑。那由我跟我们团队的田鹏,一起给各位投资者来,做这 样的一个观点的分享汇报。首先我就先简单的讲讲我们对于心动这一轮推荐的一个整体的一个核心的逻 辑。好吧。然后待会儿一会儿就由田鹏再来具体的讲讲我 ...

大家好欢迎参加开源传媒传媒周一谈在论心动公司核心推荐逻辑电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报名字声明声明完毕后主持人可以直接开始发言谢谢本次会议紧面向开源证券的专业投资机构客户或受益者 背景下研究观点的及时交流第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议未经开源证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持 谢谢 各位投资者大家晚上好欢迎参加我们开源传媒互联网团队我们的传媒周一谈本周的这样一个线上路演我是开源传媒互联网团队首席分析师方光照那么今天我们主要是给投资者再分享一下我们近期对于心动公司的一个推荐的核心逻辑由我跟我们团队的田鹏一起给各位投资者来做这样的一个观点的分享汇报 那首先我就先简单的讲一讲我们对于心动这一轮推荐的一个整体的一个核心的逻辑然后待会一会就由田鹏再来具体的讲讲我们心动的深度报告以及相关的几篇跟踪的报告的一个详细的这样一个逻辑 那么心动来讲我们其实有对公司持续的跟踪尤其是在今年那么持续的在推荐基于我们看到公司它的一个非常大的一个编辑的变化就是公司的自研游戏这一块开始 像出发往 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The self-developed life simulation mobile game "Heartbeat Town" officially launched on July 17, with pre-downloads ranking No 1 on the iOS free list and TapTap hot list, with over 300,000 pre-registrations and over 800,000 downloads on TapTap, with a score of 8 8 The game is expected to attract users through quality and word-of-mouth, retain users through rich content and strong social interaction, and monetize through low-priced skins and outfits, driving stable revenue growth [2] - The WeChat mini-game version of "Let's Go Muffin" launched on July 17, with the game maintaining a top 25 position on the iOS bestseller list and over 3 million downloads across all platforms The mini-game version is expected to cover more Android users and non-core players, further boosting overall game revenue [3] - TapTap is expected to benefit from increased advertising demand due to the launch of numerous new games in 2024, including Tencent's "DNF Mobile" and "StarCraft: Dawn", NetEase's "Naraka: Bladepoint" and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds", and miHoYo's "Zenless Zone Zero" The platform's zero-commission policy and large core user base are expected to drive user growth [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 6,005 million yuan in 2024, 7,313 million yuan in 2025, and 7,955 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 77 2%, 21 8%, and 8 8% respectively [5] - Net profit is projected to be 783 million yuan in 2024, 1,137 million yuan in 2025, and 1,246 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 1,043 4%, 45 1%, and 9 6% respectively [5] - Gross margin is projected to be 63 7% in 2024, 64 9% in 2025, and 65 2% in 2026 [5] - Net margin is projected to be 13 0% in 2024, 15 5% in 2025, and 15 7% in 2026 [5] - ROE is projected to be 31 4% in 2024, 31 3% in 2025, and 25 6% in 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to be 1 6 yuan in 2024, 2 4 yuan in 2025, and 2 6 yuan in 2026 [5] - P/E ratio is projected to be 9 3x in 2024, 6 4x in 2025, and 5 8x in 2026 [5] - P/B ratio is projected to be 2 6x in 2024, 1 8x in 2025, and 1 3x in 2026 [5] Company Overview - Current stock price is 16 22 HKD [6] - One-year high and low are 22 25 HKD and 7 47 HKD respectively [6] - Total market capitalization is 7 796 billion HKD [6] - Total shares outstanding are 481 million [6] - Turnover rate over the past 3 months is 50 73% [6]

公 司 研 究 传媒/游戏Ⅱ 心动公司(02400.HK) 《心动小镇》定档 7 月 17 日,新游或继续驱动成长 2024 年 07 月 02 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级:买入(维持) | 方光照(分析师) | 田鹏(分析师) | |--------------------------|--------------------------| | fangguangzhao@kysec.cn | tianpeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号: S0790520030004 | 证书编号: S0790523090001 | | 日期 | 2024/7/2 | |-------------------------|--------------| | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 18.220 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 22.250/7.470 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 87.57 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 87.57 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 4.81 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 4.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 52.34 | ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [1][2] Core Views - **Game Performance**: "Let's Go Muffin" has maintained a stable position in the iOS game bestseller list, with its ranking fluctuating but generally staying within the top 10. The game's revenue rebounded after the launch of a new event, with iOS revenue estimated at $32.54 million as of June 30, 2024. Total revenue across all platforms is estimated at approximately RMB 464 million [1] - **New Game Launches**: Heartbeat's self-developed games, including "Heartbeat Town" and "Sword of Linlang," are expected to launch in the second half of 2024. "Heartbeat Town" has a TapTap rating of 9.0 and over 2.3 million pre-registrations, while "Sword of Linlang" has a rating of 7.7 and nearly 2 million downloads [1] - **TapTap Platform**: The platform's daily downloads on iOS reached 31,000 in the first half of 2024, a 103% increase year-over-year. The platform's MAU is expected to recover to over 40 million, driven by the launch of high-quality games such as "Let's Go Muffin" and "DNF" mobile. The removal of "DNF" mobile from some Android app stores may benefit TapTap's ad revenue [1] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue and Profit**: Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been slightly increased to RMB 4.71 billion, RMB 5.09 billion, and RMB 5.35 billion, respectively, representing increases of 10%, 4%, and 2% from previous forecasts. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 421 million, RMB 597 million, and RMB 781 million for the same periods [1][2] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 20x, 14x, and 11x, respectively [2] Market Data - **Market Capitalization**: The company's total market capitalization is HKD 9.046 billion, with a total share capital of 481 million shares [3] - **Stock Performance**: Over the past year, the stock has shown a relative return of 1.9% and an absolute return of -4.5% [4] Game Revenue Analysis - **Revenue Trends**: "Let's Go Muffin" has shown strong revenue performance since its launch, with daily revenue peaking at RMB 2.5 million on June 14, 2024. The game's revenue has been supported by in-app purchases and events [6]

【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 心 动 公 司 (02400.HK) TapTap 游戏发布会举行,关注《心动小镇》上线表现 核心观点: ⚫ 事件:TapTap 游戏发布会于 6 月 28 日线上举行,根据公司官方微信, 本次发布会为开放式主题,"玩家的夏天,从___开始"。发布会共更新 44 款游戏,分为"移植佳作","续写新篇","次元幻想","YEAH!", "独家游戏"和"聚光灯游戏"六个篇章。聚焦多种品类和风格产品。 ⚫ 头部游戏借力 TapTap 宣传,带动平台活跃提升。本次发布会参会游 戏包括《永劫无间》、《绝区零》、《剑与远征:启程》、《燕云十六声》等 头部大厂重磅产品。其中《永劫无间》更新全新英雄"岳山",《燕云十 六声》首次曝光了新武器"绳镖"。我们认为,知名游戏公司的头部产 品与 TapTap 合作发布更新,有利于平台后续的用户活跃增长。除大厂 产品外,真人恋爱互动电影《完蛋!我被美女包围了》移动版预计 24 年 Q3 上线,TapTap 平台已于 6 月 28 日开放限量体验。建议关注重 点产品密集上线带动下,平台用户活跃表现。 ⚫ 自研游戏测试定档,关注后续上线表现。据公司官微, ...

传媒 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 6 月 26 日 02400.HK 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:港币 19.08 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 心动公司 (64%) (50%) (35%) (21%) (7%) 8% Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24 心动公司 恒生指数 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 92.5 (7.2) 13.4 (10.0) 相对恒生指数 85.2 (4.0) 4.2 8.3 | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | 480.64 | |-----------------------------------------------|----------| | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | 480.64 | | 总市值 ( 港币 百万 ) | 9,170.59 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 港币 百万 ) | 75.96 | | 主要股东 | | | Happy Today Holding Limited | 32.8 | | 资料来源:公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][33]. Core Views - The performance of the self-developed game "Let's Go Muffin" is impressive and is expected to drive rapid growth in the company's performance. The game has maintained a position in the top 10 of the iOS bestseller list in Hong Kong and Taiwan since its launch on January 24, 2024, with revenue reaching 460 million RMB by the end of May. The game also ranked 4th in the iOS bestseller list in China after its launch on May 15, 2024, with an estimated revenue of 300 million RMB in May [3][12][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of "Let's Go Muffin" - "Let's Go Muffin" has shown strong performance in both Hong Kong and Taiwan, consistently ranking in the top 10 of the iOS bestseller list. The game generated 460 million RMB in revenue in the region by the end of May 2024 [11][12]. - The game achieved a peak ranking of 4th in the iOS bestseller list in China, only behind major titles like "DNF Mobile," "Honor of Kings," and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3][12]. 2. R&D and Publishing Capabilities - The company has improved its R&D and publishing capabilities, which may enhance the success rate of its products. The return of Huang Xiwei, the original co-founder of TapTap, is expected to further strengthen the company's publishing capabilities [4][21]. 3. Growth of TapTap - TapTap's traffic and user base continue to grow, with several exclusive and major games driving further increases. The platform achieved a historical high ranking of 13 in the iOS free app list in April 2024 [5][26]. - The unique zero-revenue-sharing model of TapTap is expected to enhance its position in game publishing, leading to rapid revenue growth and accelerated profit release [5][28]. 4. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by "Let's Go Muffin" and other reserve games, with projected net profits of 783 million, 1.137 billion, and 1.246 billion RMB for 2024-2026, respectively [3][34]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.6, 2.4, and 2.6 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.6, 8.0, and 7.3 times [3][34].

2024 年 06 月 13 日 公司研究 研究所： [Table_Title] 《出发吧麦芬》表现亮眼， 平台重回 TAPTAP 证券分析师： 姚蕾 S0350521080006 yaol02@ghzq.com.cn 增长，有望推动公司 年业绩增长 2024 ——心动公司（2400.HK）公司研究（无评级） 最近一年走势 事件: 《出发吧麦芬》国服表现亮眼：2024年5月15日，公司自研休闲题材 放置挂机游戏《出发吧麦芬》国服公测。据七麦数据，《出发吧麦芬》在 iOS畅销榜排名稳中有升，截至6月11日畅销榜排名Top10。 投资要点:  5月15日《出发吧麦芬》国服上线，延续在港澳台地区优异表现， 有望推动公司2024年业绩增长。 相对恒生指数表现 2024/06/13 表现 1M 3M 12M （1）公司自研休闲题材放置挂机游戏《出发吧麦芬》国服于5月15日 心动公司 9.6% 24.0% -12.3% 正式上线。据七麦数据，《出发吧麦芬》在5月14日预下载阶段即 恒生指数 -5.2% 6.0% -7.2% 排名iOS免费榜（总榜）和免费榜（游戏）第1名；5月15日上线 后《出发吧麦芬》在iOS畅销榜排 ...