Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Resources Beverage, with Gao Li taking over as chairman, comes at a critical time as the company faces performance pressures and intensified industry competition [2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Gao Li, a veteran of the China Resources Group, has been appointed as the new chairman, succeeding Zhang Weitong, who stepped down due to work adjustments [2]. - Gao Li has a strong financial background, having served as the financial director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 and as the general manager of the finance department of China Resources Group since January 2025 [2]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - China Resources Beverage's revenue growth has stagnated, with a reported revenue of 13.52 billion yuan in the year of its IPO, reflecting only a 0.05% increase, while profit growth of 23.12% was primarily due to cost control [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with revenue dropping to 6.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, and net profit falling to 808 million yuan, down 28.63% [4]. Group 3: Market Competition - The bottled water market has seen significant changes, with competitors like Wahaha and Nongfu Spring impacting China Resources Beverage's sales, particularly in the small-sized bottled water segment [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's bottled water revenue grew by 10.7% to 9.443 billion yuan, while China Resources Beverage's revenue in the same segment fell by 23.1% to 5.251 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - To diversify its revenue streams, China Resources Beverage has been actively launching new products in tea, juice, and sports drinks, introducing 14 new SKUs in the first half of the previous year [7]. - Despite these efforts, non-water beverage revenue only accounted for approximately 15.4% of total revenue, indicating that the second growth curve has not yet materialized [7]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - China Resources Beverage's revenue has remained stagnant around 13.5 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, with expectations that its total revenue for 2025 will likely be surpassed by competitors like Dongpeng Beverage and Yuanqi Forest [7]. - As of January 19, 2026, the company's stock price had dropped to 10.32 HKD, a decline of 29% from its one-year high and over 38% from its IPO closing price, resulting in a market capitalization of 24.749 billion HKD, down 36.8% from its IPO value [8].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Resources Beverage comes at a critical time as the company faces declining performance and increased competition in the beverage industry [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Zhang Weitong has stepped down as Chairman of China Resources Beverage due to work adjustments, with Gao Li taking over for a three-year term [1]. - Gao Li has a strong financial background and has previously held key positions within the China Resources Group, including serving as the CFO of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 [1]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - In 2024, China Resources Beverage's revenue growth stagnated, with total revenue at 13.521 billion yuan, reflecting a mere 0.05% increase, while net profit grew by 23.12% mainly due to cost control [3]. - By the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with operating income at 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.52% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.805 billion yuan, down 28.63% [3]. - The core packaged water business, which accounts for nearly 90% of revenue, has seen significant declines, particularly in the sales of its flagship product, Yibao [3][5]. Group 3: Market Competition - The competitive landscape in the packaged drinking water market has shifted, with Wahaha regaining market presence and Nongfu Spring launching a low-priced product that negatively impacted Yibao's sales [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's revenue from packaged drinking water reached 9.443 billion yuan, a 10.7% increase, while China Resources Beverage's water segment revenue fell to 5.251 billion yuan, a 23.1% decline [5]. Group 4: Growth Strategy - China Resources Beverage has been criticized for its reliance on a single product line and has attempted to diversify by launching new products in tea, juice, and sports drinks [6]. - In the first half of 2025, non-water beverage revenue was 0.955 billion yuan, a 21.3% increase, but still only accounted for about 15.4% of total revenue, indicating that a second growth curve has not yet materialized [6]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - Competitors like Dongpeng Beverage and Yuanqi Forest are expected to surpass China Resources Beverage in revenue, with Dongpeng projected to exceed 20 billion yuan and Yuanqi Forest anticipating a 26% growth [8]. - China Resources Beverage's stock price has declined significantly, with a closing price of 10.32 HKD on January 19, 2026, down 29% from its peak and over 38% from its IPO price, leading to a market capitalization decrease of 36.8% from its initial value [8].

Core Viewpoint - CICC's report indicates that China Resources Beverage (02460) is expected to achieve a revenue of 11 billion RMB and a net profit of 970 million RMB in 2025, aligning with market expectations. The target price is maintained at 12 HKD with an "outperform" rating [1] Group 1 - The company is anticipated to experience a deep adjustment period in 2025, with a potential recovery in revenue and profit margins expected in 2026 following channel adjustments [1] - The appointment of Gao Li as chairman, who has a deep understanding of the company's fundamentals from his previous role as CFO from 2012 to 2020, is seen as a positive development [1] - The report suggests that 2026 may mark a turning point for the company, with expectations of a rebound in performance [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The management change, with Gao Li taking over as chairman, is expected to lead to a recovery and development for the company. Both Gao Li and Li Shuqing have extensive experience within the China Resources system, which is anticipated to enhance financial control and overall operations [9] - The company is focusing on a dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, continuously enriching its product matrix and launching new products to expand consumer demographics and scenarios [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.5 billion, 12.3 billion, and 13.1 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.3 billion RMB [9] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 13,515 million RMB, with a growth rate of 7.07%. However, a decline of 14.74% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [8][11] - The net profit for 2023 is 1,329 million RMB, with a significant growth of 34.30%. A decline of 30.67% is projected for 2025, with a recovery in the following years [8][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.66 RMB, with projections of 0.47 RMB in 2025 and a gradual increase to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [8][11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.26% in 2023 to around 9.31% by 2027 [8][11] Financial Ratios - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 44.66% in 2023, with slight fluctuations in the following years [11] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 43.29% in 2023 to 30.62% by 2027, indicating improved financial stability [11] - The current ratio is projected to improve from 1.07 in 2023 to 2.23 by 2027, reflecting better liquidity [11]

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that China Resources Beverage (02460) will achieve a revenue of 11 billion RMB and a net profit of 970 million RMB in 2025, which is in line with market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The expected revenue for China Resources Beverage in 2025 is 11 billion RMB [1] - The projected net profit for the same year is 970 million RMB [1] - The target price is maintained at 12 HKD with an "outperform industry" rating [1] Group 2: Management Changes - The company announced that Zhang Weitong will resign as chairman effective January 14, and Gao Li will be appointed as the new chairman [1] - Gao Li served as the CFO of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, providing him with deep insights into the company's fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report indicates that 2025 will be a period of deep adjustment for the company [1] - It is anticipated that revenue and profit margins may bottom out and recover in 2026 following channel adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs has adjusted its profit forecasts for China Resources Beverage due to management changes and industry competition, particularly in the packaged water sector [1] Group 2 - China Resources Beverage announced the resignation of Chairman and Executive Director Zhang Wei Tong, appointing Gao Li as the new Chairman and Executive Director [1] - Gao Li previously worked in the finance department of China Resources Group and China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 [1] - Goldman Sachs does not comment on the management change but believes that China Resources Beverage may still be in a transitional phase of channel reform by the second half of 2025 due to intensified industry competition [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its profit forecasts for China Resources Beverage for 2025 to 2027 by 8% to 15%, primarily due to operational deleveraging and ongoing brand and market investments, although partially offset by cost tailwinds in the second half of the year [1] - For 2026 to 2027, Goldman Sachs expects a recovery in profits for China Resources Beverage, driven by revenue recovery, cost savings, and an increase in self-production ratio [1] - Goldman Sachs has reduced the 12-month target price for China Resources Beverage from HKD 10.5 to HKD 9, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains an "overweight" rating for China Resources Beverage, focusing on expanding consumer demographics and scenarios through product upgrades and sports marketing strategies [1]. Recent Events - On January 14, 2026, the company announced the resignation of former Chairman Zhang Wei Tong due to work adjustments, with Gao Li, General Manager of the Finance Department of China Resources Group, appointed as the new Chairman for a three-year term. Additionally, President Li Shu Qing will take over as the authorized representative and will also become the legal representative of China Resources Yibao Beverage (China) Co., Ltd. [1]. Management Changes - Gao Li has been with China Resources since 2007 and served as the Financial Director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, leading cost management reforms. Li Shu Qing has been with the company since 1994 and will oversee daily operations and strategic implementation. Both executives bring around 20 years of operational experience within the China Resources system, potentially creating complementary advantages in financial control and overall management [2]. Strategic Development - The company continues to deepen its dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, having enriched its product matrix since 2025. New products include the Yibao sports cap in 555ml and 210ml pocket sizes, targeting sports, on-the-go, and tea brewing scenarios. In the beverage segment, 14 new SKUs were launched or upgraded in the first half of 2025, including new flavors and packaging for various product lines [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460), highlighting the company's strategy of upgrading flavors and specifications to expand consumer demographics and scenarios, alongside strengthening sports marketing and channel management [1] Recent Events - On January 14, 2026, the company announced the resignation of former Chairman Zhang Wei Tong due to work adjustments, with Gao Li, General Manager of the Finance Department of China Resources Group, appointed as the new Chairman for a three-year term. Additionally, President Li Shu Qing will take over as the authorized representative and will also become the legal representative of China Resources Yibao Beverage (China) Co., Ltd [1] Management Changes - Gao Li joined China Resources in 2007 and served as the Financial Director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, leading cost management reforms and establishing a lean sales expense control system. Li Shu Qing has been with China Resources since 1994 and will oversee daily operations, strategic implementation, and safety production as the new President. Both executives bring around 20 years of operational experience within the China Resources system, potentially creating complementary advantages in financial control and overall management [2] Strategic Development - Since 2025, the company has been deepening its dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, continuously enriching its product matrix. In the bottled water segment, new products include the Yibao Sports Cap 555ml and 210ml pocket-sized packaging, targeting sports, on-the-go, and tea brewing scenarios. In the beverage segment, 14 new and upgraded products were launched in the first half of 2025, including new flavors and packaging for existing lines such as the Magic Sports Drink and flavored tea series [3]

Group 1 - The company announced the resignation of Mr. Zhang Weitong as Executive Director, Chairman of the Board, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee, with Mr. Gao Li appointed as the new Executive Director, Chairman, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee [1] - Mr. Gao Li has extensive experience in various sectors, having joined the China Resources Group in 2007 and worked in multiple subsidiaries, including China Resources Beverage and China Resources Power, with nearly 10 years at China Resources Beverage and serving as CFO from 2012 to 2020 [1] - The company emphasizes a multi-brand and multi-water type development strategy in its packaged water segment, focusing on brands like Yibao and Benyou, while also launching 14 new SKUs in the beverage segment in H1 2025, including tea, juice, and other drinks [1] Group 2 - Short-term performance is expected to be under pressure due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, along with proactive channel reform efforts [2] - In the long term, water remains a necessity that can withstand economic cycles, and the company has a clear advantage from years of deep cultivation in the market, with revenue expected to return to growth [2] - The company anticipates an increase in profit margins due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and a decrease in outsourcing, with new management expected to lead the company back to a growth trajectory [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted decrease of 40.5% to 970 million yuan, alongside a revenue drop of 18.8% to 11 billion yuan, indicating a challenging market environment and competitive pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates that its revenue performance in the second half of 2025 will remain under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 19% and a net profit drop of 67% compared to the first half of 2025 [1]. - The packaging water segment is expected to see a 13% year-on-year decline in sales volume, with a market share decrease of 2.6% [1]. - The beverage segment may face greater pressure in the second half of 2025 due to intense market price competition and the expiration of the partnership with Kirin, which could impact products previously under the Kirin brand [1]. Group 2: Cost and Margin Analysis - The company is likely to experience a decline in gross margin in the second half of 2025, with increased promotional spending and reduced economies of scale, although some relief may come from falling raw material prices [2]. - The sales expense ratio is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 as the company increases its marketing and channel investments to stabilize market share [2]. - The net profit margin is projected to decrease by approximately 5 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit estimate of 170 million yuan for the second half of 2025 and 970 million yuan for the full year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment period in 2025, but there is potential for recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2026 following channel adjustments [2]. - The appointment of a new chairman with extensive knowledge of the company's fundamentals may positively influence future performance [2]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards by 11% and 23% respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.34 billion yuan [2].