Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The management change, with Gao Li taking over as chairman, is expected to lead to a recovery and development for the company. Both Gao Li and Li Shuqing have extensive experience within the China Resources system, which is anticipated to enhance financial control and overall operations [9] - The company is focusing on a dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, continuously enriching its product matrix and launching new products to expand consumer demographics and scenarios [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 11.5 billion, 12.3 billion, and 13.1 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.3 billion RMB [9] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 13,515 million RMB, with a growth rate of 7.07%. However, a decline of 14.74% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [8][11] - The net profit for 2023 is 1,329 million RMB, with a significant growth of 34.30%. A decline of 30.67% is projected for 2025, with a recovery in the following years [8][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.66 RMB, with projections of 0.47 RMB in 2025 and a gradual increase to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [8][11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.26% in 2023 to around 9.31% by 2027 [8][11] Financial Ratios - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 44.66% in 2023, with slight fluctuations in the following years [11] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 43.29% in 2023 to 30.62% by 2027, indicating improved financial stability [11] - The current ratio is projected to improve from 1.07 in 2023 to 2.23 by 2027, reflecting better liquidity [11]

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that China Resources Beverage (02460) will achieve a revenue of 11 billion RMB and a net profit of 970 million RMB in 2025, which is in line with market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The expected revenue for China Resources Beverage in 2025 is 11 billion RMB [1] - The projected net profit for the same year is 970 million RMB [1] - The target price is maintained at 12 HKD with an "outperform industry" rating [1] Group 2: Management Changes - The company announced that Zhang Weitong will resign as chairman effective January 14, and Gao Li will be appointed as the new chairman [1] - Gao Li served as the CFO of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, providing him with deep insights into the company's fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report indicates that 2025 will be a period of deep adjustment for the company [1] - It is anticipated that revenue and profit margins may bottom out and recover in 2026 following channel adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs has adjusted its profit forecasts for China Resources Beverage due to management changes and industry competition, particularly in the packaged water sector [1] Group 2 - China Resources Beverage announced the resignation of Chairman and Executive Director Zhang Wei Tong, appointing Gao Li as the new Chairman and Executive Director [1] - Gao Li previously worked in the finance department of China Resources Group and China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 [1] - Goldman Sachs does not comment on the management change but believes that China Resources Beverage may still be in a transitional phase of channel reform by the second half of 2025 due to intensified industry competition [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its profit forecasts for China Resources Beverage for 2025 to 2027 by 8% to 15%, primarily due to operational deleveraging and ongoing brand and market investments, although partially offset by cost tailwinds in the second half of the year [1] - For 2026 to 2027, Goldman Sachs expects a recovery in profits for China Resources Beverage, driven by revenue recovery, cost savings, and an increase in self-production ratio [1] - Goldman Sachs has reduced the 12-month target price for China Resources Beverage from HKD 10.5 to HKD 9, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains an "overweight" rating for China Resources Beverage, focusing on expanding consumer demographics and scenarios through product upgrades and sports marketing strategies [1]. Recent Events - On January 14, 2026, the company announced the resignation of former Chairman Zhang Wei Tong due to work adjustments, with Gao Li, General Manager of the Finance Department of China Resources Group, appointed as the new Chairman for a three-year term. Additionally, President Li Shu Qing will take over as the authorized representative and will also become the legal representative of China Resources Yibao Beverage (China) Co., Ltd. [1]. Management Changes - Gao Li has been with China Resources since 2007 and served as the Financial Director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, leading cost management reforms. Li Shu Qing has been with the company since 1994 and will oversee daily operations and strategic implementation. Both executives bring around 20 years of operational experience within the China Resources system, potentially creating complementary advantages in financial control and overall management [2]. Strategic Development - The company continues to deepen its dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, having enriched its product matrix since 2025. New products include the Yibao sports cap in 555ml and 210ml pocket sizes, targeting sports, on-the-go, and tea brewing scenarios. In the beverage segment, 14 new SKUs were launched or upgraded in the first half of 2025, including new flavors and packaging for various product lines [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460), highlighting the company's strategy of upgrading flavors and specifications to expand consumer demographics and scenarios, alongside strengthening sports marketing and channel management [1] Recent Events - On January 14, 2026, the company announced the resignation of former Chairman Zhang Wei Tong due to work adjustments, with Gao Li, General Manager of the Finance Department of China Resources Group, appointed as the new Chairman for a three-year term. Additionally, President Li Shu Qing will take over as the authorized representative and will also become the legal representative of China Resources Yibao Beverage (China) Co., Ltd [1] Management Changes - Gao Li joined China Resources in 2007 and served as the Financial Director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, leading cost management reforms and establishing a lean sales expense control system. Li Shu Qing has been with China Resources since 1994 and will oversee daily operations, strategic implementation, and safety production as the new President. Both executives bring around 20 years of operational experience within the China Resources system, potentially creating complementary advantages in financial control and overall management [2] Strategic Development - Since 2025, the company has been deepening its dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, continuously enriching its product matrix. In the bottled water segment, new products include the Yibao Sports Cap 555ml and 210ml pocket-sized packaging, targeting sports, on-the-go, and tea brewing scenarios. In the beverage segment, 14 new and upgraded products were launched in the first half of 2025, including new flavors and packaging for existing lines such as the Magic Sports Drink and flavored tea series [3]

Group 1 - The company announced the resignation of Mr. Zhang Weitong as Executive Director, Chairman of the Board, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee, with Mr. Gao Li appointed as the new Executive Director, Chairman, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee [1] - Mr. Gao Li has extensive experience in various sectors, having joined the China Resources Group in 2007 and worked in multiple subsidiaries, including China Resources Beverage and China Resources Power, with nearly 10 years at China Resources Beverage and serving as CFO from 2012 to 2020 [1] - The company emphasizes a multi-brand and multi-water type development strategy in its packaged water segment, focusing on brands like Yibao and Benyou, while also launching 14 new SKUs in the beverage segment in H1 2025, including tea, juice, and other drinks [1] Group 2 - Short-term performance is expected to be under pressure due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, along with proactive channel reform efforts [2] - In the long term, water remains a necessity that can withstand economic cycles, and the company has a clear advantage from years of deep cultivation in the market, with revenue expected to return to growth [2] - The company anticipates an increase in profit margins due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and a decrease in outsourcing, with new management expected to lead the company back to a growth trajectory [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with a forecasted decrease of 40.5% to 970 million yuan, alongside a revenue drop of 18.8% to 11 billion yuan, indicating a challenging market environment and competitive pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates that its revenue performance in the second half of 2025 will remain under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 19% and a net profit drop of 67% compared to the first half of 2025 [1]. - The packaging water segment is expected to see a 13% year-on-year decline in sales volume, with a market share decrease of 2.6% [1]. - The beverage segment may face greater pressure in the second half of 2025 due to intense market price competition and the expiration of the partnership with Kirin, which could impact products previously under the Kirin brand [1]. Group 2: Cost and Margin Analysis - The company is likely to experience a decline in gross margin in the second half of 2025, with increased promotional spending and reduced economies of scale, although some relief may come from falling raw material prices [2]. - The sales expense ratio is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 as the company increases its marketing and channel investments to stabilize market share [2]. - The net profit margin is projected to decrease by approximately 5 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a net profit estimate of 170 million yuan for the second half of 2025 and 970 million yuan for the full year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is undergoing a deep adjustment period in 2025, but there is potential for recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2026 following channel adjustments [2]. - The appointment of a new chairman with extensive knowledge of the company's fundamentals may positively influence future performance [2]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards by 11% and 23% respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.34 billion yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on performance due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, alongside proactive channel reform efforts. However, the long-term profit and dividend growth logic remains clear, with the company poised to return to a growth trajectory under the leadership of the new management team [2] - The company has a well-established dual-driver strategy focusing on both packaged water and beverages, with a diverse product matrix that includes multiple brands and types of water, as well as new product launches in tea, juice, and other beverage categories [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 13,515 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 7.1%. However, it is expected to decline to 11,094 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 18.0% decrease. Revenue is anticipated to recover to 12,754 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 7.6% and 6.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,329 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 42.4% to 942 million RMB in 2025. It is expected to rebound to 1,336 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 20.7% and 17.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.55 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.39 RMB in 2025, and recovering to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.3% in 2023 to 7.7% in 2025, before gradually increasing to 9.2% by 2027 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.6 in 2023, increasing to 23.4 in 2025, and then decreasing to 16.5 by 2027 [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at China Resources Beverage marks a significant moment as Gao Li, with nearly 20 years of experience within the China Resources system, takes over as Chairman, signaling a new chapter focused on both scale expansion and quality improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Gao Li's appointment as Chairman is seen as a strategic move to ensure a smooth transition in management, leveraging his extensive experience within the company and the broader China Resources Group [1][2]. - The transition occurs at a critical time as the company enters a new phase of development coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, emphasizing a focus on refined operations [1][5]. Group 2: Gao Li's Background - Gao Li has a diverse management background, having held key positions across various sectors within China Resources, including beverage, energy, and group management, making him a representative of the "composite management talent" within the organization [2][3]. - His previous role as the financial director at China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 involved significant contributions to strategic planning and operational efficiency, leading to notable profit and shareholder return improvements [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to a phase characterized by "stock competition and high-quality development," facing challenges such as reshaped retail landscapes and fluctuating consumer preferences [4][5]. - In this context, the leadership change is expected to enhance the company's dual strategy of "quality and innovation," allowing it to leverage its product matrix and operational efficiencies to capture long-term growth opportunities [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at China Resources Beverage signals a strategic shift towards a dual focus on scale expansion and quality improvement, with Gao Li's appointment as chairman reflecting the company's commitment to navigating industry challenges and enhancing operational efficiency [1][5][6] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Gao Li has been appointed as the new chairman of China Resources Beverage, succeeding Zhang Weitong, indicating a significant leadership change within the company [1] - Gao Li has nearly 20 years of experience within the China Resources system, showcasing a strong internal succession plan that emphasizes stability and continuity in management [1][2] - The transition occurs as the company enters a critical development phase post-IPO, aligning with the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a new operational cycle focused on meticulous management [1][5] Group 2: Gao Li's Background and Experience - Gao Li's career trajectory within China Resources includes key roles across various sectors, providing him with a diverse management experience that is crucial for the company's strategic direction [2][3] - His previous tenure as the financial director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 involved significant contributions to strategic planning and operational efficiency, leading to substantial profit and shareholder return improvements [3] - During his recent role at China Resources Power, Gao Li successfully enhanced the company's return on equity (ROE) from 1.83% in 2021 to 15.63% in 2024, demonstrating his capability in financial management and capital operations [4] Group 3: Industry Context and Strategic Implications - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to a focus on high-quality development, facing challenges such as changing consumer preferences and intense brand competition [4][5] - The leadership change is seen as a strategic move to ensure the continuation of the "quality + innovation" dual strategy, which is essential for maintaining the company's leading position in the market [5][6] - With the rise of health-conscious consumption and the expansion of lower-tier markets, China Resources Beverage is positioned to leverage its brand strength and operational efficiencies for long-term growth [5][6]