报告指，华润饮料2026年或有望触底回升。公司发布公告自1月14日起张伟通辞任并任命高立为董事 长，高立于2012年至2020年期间在华润饮料担任财务总监，对于公司基本面了解深入。公司2025年处于 深度调整期，该行认为2026年收入及利润率有望在渠道调整后触底回升。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2025年收入110亿元人民币，净利润9.7亿元 人民币，基本符合市场预期。维持目标价12港元及"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs has adjusted its profit forecasts for China Resources Beverage due to management changes and industry competition, particularly in the packaged water sector [1] Group 2 - China Resources Beverage announced the resignation of Chairman and Executive Director Zhang Wei Tong, appointing Gao Li as the new Chairman and Executive Director [1] - Gao Li previously worked in the finance department of China Resources Group and China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 [1] - Goldman Sachs does not comment on the management change but believes that China Resources Beverage may still be in a transitional phase of channel reform by the second half of 2025 due to intensified industry competition [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its profit forecasts for China Resources Beverage for 2025 to 2027 by 8% to 15%, primarily due to operational deleveraging and ongoing brand and market investments, although partially offset by cost tailwinds in the second half of the year [1] - For 2026 to 2027, Goldman Sachs expects a recovery in profits for China Resources Beverage, driven by revenue recovery, cost savings, and an increase in self-production ratio [1] - Goldman Sachs has reduced the 12-month target price for China Resources Beverage from HKD 10.5 to HKD 9, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains an "overweight" rating for China Resources Beverage, focusing on expanding consumer demographics and scenarios through product upgrades and sports marketing strategies [1]. Recent Events - On January 14, 2026, the company announced the resignation of former Chairman Zhang Wei Tong due to work adjustments, with Gao Li, General Manager of the Finance Department of China Resources Group, appointed as the new Chairman for a three-year term. Additionally, President Li Shu Qing will take over as the authorized representative and will also become the legal representative of China Resources Yibao Beverage (China) Co., Ltd. [1]. Management Changes - Gao Li has been with China Resources since 2007 and served as the Financial Director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, leading cost management reforms. Li Shu Qing has been with the company since 1994 and will oversee daily operations and strategic implementation. Both executives bring around 20 years of operational experience within the China Resources system, potentially creating complementary advantages in financial control and overall management [2]. Strategic Development - The company continues to deepen its dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, having enriched its product matrix since 2025. New products include the Yibao sports cap in 555ml and 210ml pocket sizes, targeting sports, on-the-go, and tea brewing scenarios. In the beverage segment, 14 new SKUs were launched or upgraded in the first half of 2025, including new flavors and packaging for various product lines [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460), highlighting the company's strategy of upgrading flavors and specifications to expand consumer demographics and scenarios, alongside strengthening sports marketing and channel management [1] Recent Events - On January 14, 2026, the company announced the resignation of former Chairman Zhang Wei Tong due to work adjustments, with Gao Li, General Manager of the Finance Department of China Resources Group, appointed as the new Chairman for a three-year term. Additionally, President Li Shu Qing will take over as the authorized representative and will also become the legal representative of China Resources Yibao Beverage (China) Co., Ltd [1] Management Changes - Gao Li joined China Resources in 2007 and served as the Financial Director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020, leading cost management reforms and establishing a lean sales expense control system. Li Shu Qing has been with China Resources since 1994 and will oversee daily operations, strategic implementation, and safety production as the new President. Both executives bring around 20 years of operational experience within the China Resources system, potentially creating complementary advantages in financial control and overall management [2] Strategic Development - Since 2025, the company has been deepening its dual-engine strategy of water and beverage, continuously enriching its product matrix. In the bottled water segment, new products include the Yibao Sports Cap 555ml and 210ml pocket-sized packaging, targeting sports, on-the-go, and tea brewing scenarios. In the beverage segment, 14 new and upgraded products were launched in the first half of 2025, including new flavors and packaging for existing lines such as the Magic Sports Drink and flavored tea series [3]

Group 1 - The company announced the resignation of Mr. Zhang Weitong as Executive Director, Chairman of the Board, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee, with Mr. Gao Li appointed as the new Executive Director, Chairman, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee [1] - Mr. Gao Li has extensive experience in various sectors, having joined the China Resources Group in 2007 and worked in multiple subsidiaries, including China Resources Beverage and China Resources Power, with nearly 10 years at China Resources Beverage and serving as CFO from 2012 to 2020 [1] - The company emphasizes a multi-brand and multi-water type development strategy in its packaged water segment, focusing on brands like Yibao and Benyou, while also launching 14 new SKUs in the beverage segment in H1 2025, including tea, juice, and other drinks [1] Group 2 - Short-term performance is expected to be under pressure due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, along with proactive channel reform efforts [2] - In the long term, water remains a necessity that can withstand economic cycles, and the company has a clear advantage from years of deep cultivation in the market, with revenue expected to return to growth [2] - The company anticipates an increase in profit margins due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and a decrease in outsourcing, with new management expected to lead the company back to a growth trajectory [2]

规模效应收缩及费用投入拖累下，2025 年利润显著下滑。我们预计2H25 毛利率同比降幅或低于1H25， 促销投入加大、规模效应收缩等拖累或被PET等原料价格下行部分抵消；公司下半年起为稳住份额提升 渠道及营销投入，我们预计销售费用率亦同比上行，我们测算下半年净利率同比降5ppt左右，对应 2H25/2025年净利润1.7 亿元/9.7 亿元，全年利润短时承压。 2026 年或有望触底回升。公司发布公告自1 月14 日起张伟通先生辞任并任命高立先生为公司董事长， 高立先生2012-2020 年期间在华润饮料担任财务总监，对于公司基本面了解深入。公司2025 年处于深度 调整期，我们认为2026 年收入及利润率有望在渠道调整后触底回升。 盈利预测与估值 机构：中金公司 研究员：王文丹/陈文博/王雪骄 业绩预览 预测2025 年归母净利润同比下降40.5%至9.7 亿元我们预计公司2025 年收入110 亿元，同比-18.8%，归 母净利润9.7 亿元，同比-40.5%，对应2H25 收入/净利润-19%/-67%，基本符合市场预期。 关注要点 2H25 收入表现延续承压态势，市场竞争仍较激烈。我们预计下半年公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on performance due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, alongside proactive channel reform efforts. However, the long-term profit and dividend growth logic remains clear, with the company poised to return to a growth trajectory under the leadership of the new management team [2] - The company has a well-established dual-driver strategy focusing on both packaged water and beverages, with a diverse product matrix that includes multiple brands and types of water, as well as new product launches in tea, juice, and other beverage categories [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 13,515 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 7.1%. However, it is expected to decline to 11,094 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 18.0% decrease. Revenue is anticipated to recover to 12,754 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 7.6% and 6.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,329 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 42.4% to 942 million RMB in 2025. It is expected to rebound to 1,336 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 20.7% and 17.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.55 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.39 RMB in 2025, and recovering to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.3% in 2023 to 7.7% in 2025, before gradually increasing to 9.2% by 2027 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.6 in 2023, increasing to 23.4 in 2025, and then decreasing to 16.5 by 2027 [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at China Resources Beverage marks a significant moment as Gao Li, with nearly 20 years of experience within the China Resources system, takes over as Chairman, signaling a new chapter focused on both scale expansion and quality improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Gao Li's appointment as Chairman is seen as a strategic move to ensure a smooth transition in management, leveraging his extensive experience within the company and the broader China Resources Group [1][2]. - The transition occurs at a critical time as the company enters a new phase of development coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, emphasizing a focus on refined operations [1][5]. Group 2: Gao Li's Background - Gao Li has a diverse management background, having held key positions across various sectors within China Resources, including beverage, energy, and group management, making him a representative of the "composite management talent" within the organization [2][3]. - His previous role as the financial director at China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 involved significant contributions to strategic planning and operational efficiency, leading to notable profit and shareholder return improvements [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to a phase characterized by "stock competition and high-quality development," facing challenges such as reshaped retail landscapes and fluctuating consumer preferences [4][5]. - In this context, the leadership change is expected to enhance the company's dual strategy of "quality and innovation," allowing it to leverage its product matrix and operational efficiencies to capture long-term growth opportunities [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership transition at China Resources Beverage signals a strategic shift towards a dual focus on scale expansion and quality improvement, with Gao Li's appointment as chairman reflecting the company's commitment to navigating industry challenges and enhancing operational efficiency [1][5][6] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Gao Li has been appointed as the new chairman of China Resources Beverage, succeeding Zhang Weitong, indicating a significant leadership change within the company [1] - Gao Li has nearly 20 years of experience within the China Resources system, showcasing a strong internal succession plan that emphasizes stability and continuity in management [1][2] - The transition occurs as the company enters a critical development phase post-IPO, aligning with the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a new operational cycle focused on meticulous management [1][5] Group 2: Gao Li's Background and Experience - Gao Li's career trajectory within China Resources includes key roles across various sectors, providing him with a diverse management experience that is crucial for the company's strategic direction [2][3] - His previous tenure as the financial director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 involved significant contributions to strategic planning and operational efficiency, leading to substantial profit and shareholder return improvements [3] - During his recent role at China Resources Power, Gao Li successfully enhanced the company's return on equity (ROE) from 1.83% in 2021 to 15.63% in 2024, demonstrating his capability in financial management and capital operations [4] Group 3: Industry Context and Strategic Implications - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to a focus on high-quality development, facing challenges such as changing consumer preferences and intense brand competition [4][5] - The leadership change is seen as a strategic move to ensure the continuation of the "quality + innovation" dual strategy, which is essential for maintaining the company's leading position in the market [5][6] - With the rise of health-conscious consumption and the expansion of lower-tier markets, China Resources Beverage is positioned to leverage its brand strength and operational efficiencies for long-term growth [5][6]

此外，高立自2026年1月14日起获委任为执行董事、董事会主席及提名委员会主席；以及执行董事及总 裁李树清自2026年1月14日起获委任为授权代表。 （企业公告） 1月14日，华润饮料发布公告称，张伟通因工作需要，自2026年1月14日起辞任执行董事、董事会主席及 公司提名委员会主席职务，及不再担任中国香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则第3.05条所规定的公 司授权代表及中国香港法例第622章公司条例第16部所规定的在中国香港代表公司接收法律程序文件及 通知的公司授权代表。 (编辑：王璨 林辰) ...