是否会影响他主业的一个长期的增长逻辑然后第二是市场会担忧他的这个饮料业务是否迟迟未成功第三是他的这个资产化率对他的这个定义率提升到底能带来多大的弹性那接下来就从以下这三个点主要去探讨一下 首先从主页来看,它是包装水领域的第二仅次元的护身权,然后在纯净水领域它是第一,占了33%的份额。 公司的话其实我们主要看它的主业的成长逻辑主要是第一是包装水特别是纯净水还有很多的中小厂其实还有很大的一个整合的空间然后第二是它的区域上它主要是在南方 华南区然后向北进攻这么一个态势然后现在在这个长江沿岸各个省份基本上都已经到了第一第二的这么一个位置然后在这个北方地区呢大部分的区域布局还是不够的 现在能听清吗?可以可以刚才的是不是都没听到?各位投资者大家晚上好我是华安实影的分析师罗宥文我们制片报告是在这个若干国通之前周日发的 主要是觉得这个公司是处于一个低规格状态公司之前一直定价在这个26年的10倍左右现在也不到15倍我们认为它是包含了很多悲观的预期我们这篇报告其实早就写好了然后也是在港股通知进了研发部我们主要关注三个点一个是它的一个就是它比较问题比较大的这个龙凤山泉的绿瓶纯净水对它的冲击 它是这种粘体大包装多瓶这样去买的话是家庭 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beverage reported stable revenue growth for 2024, with revenue reaching 13.521 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 24.7% to 1.661 billion yuan, driven by a significant improvement in gross margin from 44.7% in 2023 to 47.3% in 2024, leading to a net profit margin increase from 9.9% to 12.3% [1][3][4] Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.158 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70.8%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [1][16] - The gross margin has increased significantly over the past years, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.6% in net profit, outperforming the industry average [3][4] Cost Control and Efficiency - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to three main factors: an increase in self-owned production capacity from 36% in 2023 to over 50% in 2024, cost reductions through value chain optimization, and a decrease in raw material costs [5][6][7] - The company achieved a 4.8% reduction in sales costs, amounting to 3.55 billion yuan, which is comparable to the net profit increase of 3.3 billion yuan for the year [7] Product and Market Strategy - In 2024, the packaging drinking water segment generated 12.124 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue, while the beverage segment, identified as a second growth curve, achieved 1.397 billion yuan, growing by 30.8% [9][12] - The company has successfully launched new beverage products, such as "Zhiben Qingrun" chrysanthemum tea, which captured a 38.5% market share and saw a 122% increase in sales [10][12] Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its internal production, operations, and marketing capabilities by 2025, focusing on supply chain efficiency and cost reduction [1][15] - The strategic focus includes expanding into the northern market and enhancing product diversification, with expectations of continued growth in the beverage segment [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460) [3][5][17] Core Views - The company's performance for 2024 met expectations, with revenue of RMB 13.52 billion, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.64 billion, up 23% year-on-year [6][7] - The bottled water business is under short-term pressure, but profitability is expected to improve steadily due to capacity expansion and reduced reliance on outsourcing [6][8] - The beverage business is experiencing rapid growth, with a 30.8% increase in revenue to RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, supported by the existing distribution network [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13.515 billion - 2024: RMB 13.521 billion - 2025E: RMB 14.602 billion - 2026E: RMB 15.618 billion - 2027E: RMB 16.648 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 7.1% for 2023, 0.0% for 2024, and 8.0% for 2025 [4][8] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 1.329 billion - 2024: RMB 1.637 billion - 2025E: RMB 1.981 billion - 2026E: RMB 2.262 billion - 2027E: RMB 2.484 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 34.3% for 2023, 23.1% for 2024, and 21.1% for 2025 [4][8] Market Performance - The closing price on March 27, 2025, was HKD 14.54, with a market capitalization of HKD 34.87 billion [5][6] - The stock has shown a comparative performance of -38% against the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index over the past year [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [6] Core Views - The company reported a stable sales performance with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit, indicating effective operational strategies and cost management [1][3] - The beverage segment is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in tea and energy drinks, which are expected to drive future revenue increases [2][3] - The company is committed to high dividend payouts, reflecting its strong cash flow and profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.521 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%, and a net profit of 1.637 billion, up 23.12% [1] - The gross margin improved to 47.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced production capacity and efficiency [3] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.158 billion, with a payout ratio of 70.8% [3] Packaging Water Business - The packaging water segment generated revenue of 12.124 billion, a decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, but the company outperformed the industry growth rate [1] - The retail sales of the company's packaging water products grew by 4.5%, compared to the industry average of 2.5% [1] Beverage Business - The beverage segment reported revenue of 1.397 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.80%, contributing 10.3% to total revenue [2] - The tea beverage product line saw a remarkable sales increase of 122% year-on-year, with the chrysanthemum tea series leading in market share [2] Production and Cost Management - The company expanded its production capacity by 21% in 2024, adding 22 new production lines [3] - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased, contributing to the overall improvement in profitability [3] Future Projections - The company expects net profit to grow by 20.7%, 20.4%, and 21.9% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching 1.98 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.90 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [6] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue of 13.521 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.05%, and a net profit of 1.637 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.12% [1] - The beverage segment is actively being developed as a second growth curve, achieving a revenue of 1.397 billion, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 30.80% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing production capacity and efficiency, with a gross margin of 47.3%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.158 billion, with a payout ratio of 70.8%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The packaging water business generated revenue of 12.124 billion, a decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue. The retail sales of the company's packaging water products grew by 4.5%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 2.5% [1] - The beverage business has shown robust growth, with a three-year compound annual growth rate of 40%, driven by new product launches and market expansion [2] Production and Profitability - The company has increased its production capacity by 21% year-on-year, adding 22 new production lines, which is expected to enhance the self-sufficiency rate of packaging water to over 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - The net profit margin improved to 12.1%, an increase of 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, supported by reduced sales and management expenses [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.975 billion, 2.377 billion, and 2.897 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 20.4%, and 21.9% [3] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, projecting steady revenue growth and improving profitability metrics over the next few years [5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The beverage industry is experiencing intense competition, particularly due to a price war initiated by Nongfu Spring, which has prompted China Resources Beverage to adopt strategies for resilience and growth amidst these challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Resources Beverage reported a slight revenue increase of 0.05% to 13.521 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 23.1% to 1.637 billion yuan, indicating effective cost optimization and business diversification strategies [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 47.3%, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability despite competitive pressures [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The bottled water market in 2024 is characterized as a "year of chaos," with Nongfu Spring aggressively pricing its products, such as the "Green Bottle Pure Water" at 9.9 yuan for 12 bottles, significantly impacting market dynamics [2]. - Nongfu Spring's market share for its green bottle water surged from zero to 9%, directly affecting China Resources Beverage's small-sized bottled water segment [2]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - In response to the price war, China Resources Beverage is focusing on "upward breakout" strategies by launching premium products like "Yibao Lu" and mid-range offerings like "Ben You," with the latter seeing over 100% year-on-year sales growth [2]. - The company aims to increase its self-manufactured product ratio to 70% by 2025, which is expected to enhance cost advantages and improve profit margins [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The beverage sector is witnessing a shift, with non-water beverage categories such as tea and juice growing by 30.8%, now accounting for over 10% of total revenue, which helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single product category [3]. - Despite maintaining an 18.4% market share, China Resources Beverage faces challenges from Nongfu Spring's 23.6% share and must focus on brand differentiation and channel optimization to remain competitive [3].

Summary of China Resources Beverage (2460.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Beverage (2460.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$34.4 billion / $4.4 billion - **Current Price**: HK$14.66 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$19.00 - **Upside Potential**: 29.6% [1] Key Financial Highlights - **FY24 Results**: Net margin beat reported on March 21, 2024 - **Earnings Forecast**: Revised up by 6% for 2025 to Rmb2.06 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase - **P/E Ratio**: Trading at 16x 2025 P/E on updated estimates [1][17] Core Insights from Analyst Briefing 1. **2024 Performance**: - Resilient performance despite a slowing industry - Profitability exceeded expectations with stable topline growth - Packaged water retail sales gained 0.4 percentage points in market share - Growth driven by mid-to-large pack water and strong beverage sales [1][20] 2. **2025 Targets and Outlook**: - Plans to reignite growth in the water segment and enhance margins through cost efficiency - Focus on penetrating lower-tier cities and expanding consumption scenarios [1][18] - Beverage segment to emphasize tea, juice, and sports drinks, with new product launches [1][18] 3. **Margin Expansion**: - Expected margin expansion driven by increased in-house production ratio (aiming for 70% in 2025) - Cost benefits from renegotiated service fees and operating leverage [1][16][19] 4. **Shareholder Returns**: - Management aims to maintain or increase the common dividend payout ratio, currently at 45% for 2024 [1][16] Operational Highlights - **Market Share Growth**: Packaged water retail sales grew by 4.5% year-over-year in 2024, outpacing the industry [1][20] - **Capacity Expansion**: Added four new plants and retired nine legacy production lines, boosting total capacity by 21% [1][20] - **Channel Expansion**: Increased points of sale by 15% year-over-year to 2.5 million [1][21] Product Innovation - New product launches include family-sized water SKUs and various beverage lines, including herbal tea and sports drinks [1][21] Earnings Estimate Changes - **Revenue Forecasts**: Adjusted down by 4-5% for 2025-2027, reflecting enhanced margin expansion [1][22] - **EPS Growth**: Expected to grow from Rmb0.79 in 2025 to Rmb1.20 by 2027 [1][22] Risks and Considerations - **Competitive Landscape**: Potential for intensified competition in the bottled water market - **Raw Material Prices**: Fluctuations could impact margins - **Channel Management**: Uncertainty in distribution could affect sales [1][24] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Buy rating maintained with a target price of HK$19.00, based on a 19x 2026E P/E [1][23] - **Attractive Risk-Reward**: Stock offers high margin visibility and growth potential despite slight downward adjustments in sales forecasts [1][17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460) with a target price of 18.75 HKD, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][6][12]. Core Insights - China Resources Beverage achieved a revenue of 13.521 billion CNY in 2024, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 23.12% to 1.637 billion CNY. The company declared a total cash dividend of 1.158 billion CNY, with a payout ratio of 70.77% [3][4][7]. - The company’s packaging water business recorded a revenue of 12.124 billion CNY, a decline of 2.6% year-on-year, while the second-line beverage business grew by 30.8% to 1.4 billion CNY, contributing 10.3% to total revenue [4][5]. - The gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 47.3%, driven by increased self-owned production capacity and reduced outsourcing costs [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 13.521 billion CNY and a net profit of 1.637 billion CNY, with respective growth rates of 0.05% and 23.12% [3][7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.453 billion CNY, 15.261 billion CNY, and 16.075 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 7%, 6%, and 5% respectively [6][7]. Business Segments - The packaging water segment accounted for 89.7% of total revenue, with a notable decline in small-sized products due to competitive pricing pressures, while larger-sized products saw an increase in revenue by 8.6% [4][5]. - The second-line beverage segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with new product launches aimed at expanding consumer reach [4][6]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency, leading to a significant reduction in production costs and an increase in net profit margin to 12.1% [5][6]. - The self-owned production capacity is projected to increase to over 60%, further enhancing profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Beverage (02460) with a target price of HKD 18.75, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][6][12]. Core Insights - China Resources Beverage achieved a revenue of HKD 13.521 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 23.12% to HKD 1.637 billion. The company declared a total cash dividend of HKD 1.158 billion, with a payout ratio of 70.77% [3][4][5]. - The company’s packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 2.6% to HKD 12.124 billion, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue, while the second-line beverage business grew by 30.8% to HKD 1.4 billion, representing 10.3% of total revenue [4][5]. - The gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 47.3%, driven by increased self-owned production capacity and reduced outsourcing costs. The net profit margin also increased by 2.3 percentage points to 12.1% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of HKD 13.521 billion and a net profit of HKD 1.637 billion, with respective growth rates of 0.05% and 23.12% [3][7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 14.453 billion, HKD 15.261 billion, and HKD 16.075 billion, with growth rates of 7%, 6%, and 5% respectively [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in the large packaging water segment, which has shown a revenue increase of 8.6% year-on-year, while small packaging products faced a decline due to competitive pricing [4][5]. - The introduction of new products, such as the "Zhi Ben Qing Run" series, has significantly boosted sales, with a 122% increase in volume for this product line [4][6]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights that internal efficiency improvements have led to a decrease in unit production costs, contributing to a notable increase in profitability [5][6]. - The company plans to further enhance its production capacity and reduce logistics costs by expanding its distribution network and optimizing transportation methods [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.05% and a net profit increase of 23.12% for 2024, with revenues and net profits reaching 13.521 billion and 1.637 billion respectively [4] - The gross margin improved to 47.31%, up by 2.66 percentage points, attributed to increased production from self-owned factories and reduced raw material costs [4] - The beverage business saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 30.80%, while packaged drinking water revenue declined by 2.59% [5] - The company is actively expanding its national presence and increasing the proportion of self-owned production, aiming for over 60% self-owned capacity by the end of the current five-year plan [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 13.521 billion, with projected growth rates of 6.8%, 7.5%, and 7.7% for the years 2025 to 2027 [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.84, 0.97, and 1.12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 14, and 12 [8][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 14.5% to 15.1% over the forecast period [10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its distribution channels, with a 15% increase in retail coverage and over 20% growth in commercial refrigeration units [6] - New product launches and flavor innovations are driving the beverage segment, with a 122% increase in sales volume for a key product line [5][8] - The company is also investing in expanding production capacity, adding 22 new production lines, which includes 14 high-speed water lines and 3 sterile beverage lines [6]