Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve long-term excess returns through internal efficiency improvements and external channel and product category expansions, despite facing short-term performance pressure due to channel reforms [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with revised net profit estimates for 2025-2027 at 956 million, 1.211 billion, and 1.489 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -42%, +27%, and +23% respectively [1] - The target price is set at 12.45 RMB, based on a 24.9X PE ratio for 2026, referencing comparable companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [1] Group 2: Management Changes - The company announced the resignation of Zhang Wei as Executive Director and Chairman, with Gao Li appointed to these roles effective January 14, 2026 [1] - Gao Li has extensive experience in the beverage sector, having worked nearly 10 years at China Resources Beverage and served as CFO from 2012 to 2020, aligning with the company's goals for management reform and efficiency improvements [1] Group 3: Channel and Product Development - Starting in 2025, the company will address high channel inventory and management issues by increasing investment in channel management and transitioning from large to small distributors [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in its packaged water business and growth in its beverage segment, with new products like herbal drinks and sugar-free teas expected to drive sales [2] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company is making steady progress in transforming its production, marketing, and operations centers, which includes increasing self-production rates and optimizing logistics to reduce transportation costs [2] - The new chairman's financial background is expected to enhance management efficiency and improve profitability over time [2]

包装水逐步企稳，饮料新品茁壮成长 2025年起受累于渠道库存阶段性偏高以及渠道管理粗放等历史遗留问题影响，公司开启针对渠道端的改 革，一方面加大费用投放力度缓解渠道库存压力，另一方面逐步拆大商为小商、同时招募特渠、饮品经 销商，以提升经销商团队的专业性，展望2026年，在渠道问题逐步解决的背景下，该行看好包装水主业 轻装上阵、焕发新机;饮料业务板块方面，至本清润系列草本饮料持续放量，"魔力"运动饮料、"佐味茶 事"无糖茶随着产品的升级迭代蓄势待发，考虑到"怡宝"主品牌所传递的运动、健康概念与草本饮料、 运动饮料及无糖茶潜在用户的诉求相适配，该行看好公司饮料业务持续放量，逐步成长为第二增长引 擎。 向内提效率，盈利能力逐步改善 公司"生产、营销、运营"三大中心改造有条不紊的推进，其中自产率持续提升、铁路/水路/前置仓布局 取代过去单一的公路运输将显著降低运输费用、营销端SKU的持续丰富以及信息化系统的赋能将显著提 升销售费用投放效率。总体而言，在具备财务背景的新董事会主席到任的背景下，该行看好公司由内而 外逐步提升管理效率，从而实现盈利能力的持续提升 风险提示 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持华 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持华润饮料(02460)"增持"评级，给予目标价12.45元人民币。公司管理层 焕新，高立先生履新，其财务及跨领域管理经验将有力推动渠道精细化和降本增效改革。包装水业务渠 道调整逐步到位，饮料新品凭借"怡宝"健康运动概念持续放量，内部通过提升自产率、优化物流及营销 效率，盈利能力有望持续改善。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 管理焕新 2025年起受累于渠道库存阶段性偏高以及渠道管理粗放等历史遗留问题影响，公司开启针对渠道端的改 革，一方面加大费用投放力度缓解渠道库存压力，另一方面逐步拆大商为小商、同时招募特渠、饮品经 销商，以提升经销商团队的专业性，展望2026年，在渠道问题逐步解决的背景下，该行看好包装水主业 轻装上阵、焕发新机;饮料业务板块方面，至本清润系列草本饮料持续放量，"魔力"运动饮料、"佐味茶 事"无糖茶随着产品的升级迭代蓄势待发，考虑到"怡宝"主品牌所传递的运动、健康概念与草本饮料、 运动饮料及无糖茶潜在用户的诉求相适配，该行看好公司饮料业务持续放量，逐步成长为第二增长引 擎。 向内提效率，盈利能力逐步改善 公司"生产、营销、运营"三大中心改造有条不紊的推进，其中自产率持 ...

风险提示：行业竞争加剧；成长异常上行；食品安全风险 管理焕新，否极泰来可期 华润饮料(2460) 华润饮料（2460）更新报告 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 13,515 | 13,521 | 11,104 | 12,465 | 13,945 | | (+/-)% | 7.1% | 0.0% | -18% | 12% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 6,035 | 6,397 | 5,067 | 5,785 | 6,520 | | 净利润 | 1,329 | 1,637 | 956 | 1,211 | 1,489 | | (+/-)% | 34.3% | 23.1% | -42% | 27% | 23% | | PE | - | 13.08 | 23.11 | 18.25 | 14.84 | | PB | - | 2.19 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 1.53 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2026-2027年实现营业收入118/127亿元（同比变 动+7%/+7% ），归母净利润12.1/14.0亿元（同比变动+26%/+16%），对应PE分别为21X/18X，维持"增 持"评级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 水业务挑战与机遇共存 该行认为，数字化能够有效赋能饮料生产端及渠道端，在生产端，根据中国食品工业协会，数字化智能 化改造能将饮料生产的综合效率提升20%-30%；在渠道端，目前东鹏饮料（605499）凭借"五码合一"掌 握终端动销数据，实现单点效益的有效监控。公司在数字化建设方面仍有较为充足的发展空间，2012- 2020年期间高立先生担任华润饮料财务总监，曾经全面推广终端管理系统SUP和经销商协同平台 DMS，后续有望引领公司打造全链路数字化。 渠道扁平化改革 2025年公司推行渠道改革，通过渠道层级削减、增加单层级利润，提升渠道效率以及客户积极性，同时 设立饮料专项经销商、拓展新兴渠道（扩大线上销售、自动贩卖机销售）、突破餐饮等核心渠道、开发 特渠经销商。该行认为渠道改革虽然短期会引起业绩端阵痛，但长期来看将利好公司增强终端掌 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the company's focus on improving cost control efficiency, with a sales expense ratio of 30.4% in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points. The new chairman, Mr. Gao Li, is expected to implement more precise financial management strategies while maintaining business growth [7] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive digital transformation, which is anticipated to enhance production efficiency by 20%-30% through digital upgrades. The company has ample room for development in digitalization, having previously implemented management systems that could lead to a fully digitalized supply chain [7] - The company is reforming its distribution channels by reducing channel layers and enhancing single-layer profits, which is expected to improve channel efficiency and customer engagement. Although this may cause short-term performance pain, it is projected to strengthen the company's control over the terminal market in the long run [8] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 11.058 billion, 11.823 billion, and 12.670 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -18%, +7%, and +7% [8] - The projected net profit for the same years is 962 million, 1.209 billion, and 1.403 billion RMB, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -41%, +26%, and +16% [8] - The report estimates the company's PE ratios to be 26X, 21X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] Market Performance and Business Outlook - The company's bottled water business faces challenges due to industry price wars, with a market share decline of approximately 3 percentage points for its flagship brand, Yibao, in the first half of 2025. However, the bottled water market is expected to grow, with the pure water market projected to reach 179.8 billion RMB by 2028 [9] - The beverage segment is diversifying with new product launches, including herbal drinks, sugar-free tea, sports drinks, and ready-to-drink coffee. The company introduced 14 new SKUs in H1 2025, marking a historical high in innovation density [9]

智通财经APP获悉，太平洋证券发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2025-2027年营业收入分别为 114.7/122.4/131.2亿元，同比增长-15%/+7%/+7%，归母净利润分别为12.8/14.1/15.5亿元，同比增 长-22%/+11%/+10%，对应PE为20X/18X/16X，给予增持评级。 太平洋证券主要观点如下： 纯净水行业龙头，立足华南迈向全国，饮料业务加速布局 华润饮料起步于华南，历经40多年发展已成为国内第二大包装水企业，市场份额达18.4%。2021-2024年 公司营业收入从113.40增长至135.21亿元，CAGR达6.04%，净利润从8.58增长至16.61亿元，CAGR达 24.63%，毛利率提升&销售费用率下行带动利润弹性凸显。公司收入结构以包装饮用水为主，2025H1 占比84.6%，近几年公司饮料业务加速布局增长亮眼，占比从2021年的4.6%提升至2025H1的15.4%。 包装水行业需求稳健，品牌&渠道基础扎实，全国化空间广阔 根据欧睿数据显示，中国包装水市场规模由2010年的509亿元提升至2024年的2199亿元，CAGR达到 11.02%，健康、安 ...

公告显示，黄鹄，46岁，于2009年9月加入华润，先后就职于本集团、华润五丰有限公司及华润建材科技控股有限公 司。 2月13日，华润饮料发布公告称，吴霞因其他工作安排，自2026年2月13日起辞任公司首席财务官。黄鹄自2026年2月 13日起获委任为首席财务官。 （企业公告） ...

华润饮料(02460)发布公告，吴霞女士因其他工作安排，自2026年2月13日起辞任本公司首席财务官。 董事会进一步宣布，黄鹄女士自2026年2月13日起获委任为首席财务官。 ...

智通财经APP讯，华润饮料(02460)发布公告，吴霞女士因其他工作安排，自2026年2月13日起辞任本公 司首席财务官。 董事会进一步宣布，黄鹄女士自2026年2月13日起获委任为首席财务官。 ...