Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beverage, the parent company of Yibao, has issued a profit warning, expecting a 20% to 30% decrease in net profit for the first half of the year, leading to a 13.08% drop in stock price on the announcement day [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 13.52 billion yuan for the previous year, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.05%, and a net profit of 1.637 billion yuan, which was a 23.12% increase [3]. - The beverage segment's revenue has increased to 10.3% of total revenue, marking the first time it has reached double digits, although the overall revenue from packaged water has seen a decline [4][12]. - The packaged water business accounted for 89.7% of total revenue, experiencing a 2.6% decline year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since 2018 [9]. Group 2: Market Competition - The drinking water market is facing intensified competition, particularly with the reintroduction of bottled water products by competitors like Nongfu Spring, which has led to aggressive pricing strategies [6][7]. - The price of mainstream bottled water products has dropped to around 1 yuan per bottle, with Nongfu Spring's new product priced even lower at 0.8 yuan [7][8]. - The increased competition has resulted in higher sales and distribution costs, contributing to the decline in profit margins for China Resources Beverage [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively restructuring its business model by increasing marketing investments and adjusting its product mix to stabilize market presence and develop a second growth curve in non-water beverages [3][12]. - New product launches have been frequent, with the company introducing 1-2 new products each month across various categories, including herbal drinks, sports drinks, and ready-to-drink coffee [13]. - The herbal drink "Zhiben Qingrun" has seen significant growth, with a 122% increase in sales, although its market performance varies regionally [11][12].

相关企业：深圳市深晖企业有限公司、维他奶有限公司、厦门惠尔康食品有限公司、深圳市宝庆堂食品 饮料有限公司、阳光先生（广东）食品有限公司、椰树集团海南椰汁饮料有限公司、厦门味丹食品有限 公司、元气森林（北京）食品科技集团有限公司、上海肆望饮料有限公司、果子熟了（深圳）生物科技 有限公司、深圳市开心一点食品饮料有限公司 上市企业：华润饮料（02460.HK）、康美药业（600518） 关键词：菊花茶饮料市场政策、菊花茶饮料产业链、菊花茶饮料市场规模、菊花茶饮料竞争格局、菊花 茶饮料发展趋势 一、概述 菊花茶饮料是以菊花为主要原料，经提取、过滤、调配（可添加水、甜味剂、酸味剂、香精等辅料）、 杀菌、灌装等工艺制成的液体饮料。其核心特征是具有菊花特有的风味，并保留菊花中的部分营养成 分。按纯度不同，菊花茶饮料可以分为纯菊花茶和调配型菊花茶；按消费场景不同，菊花茶饮料可以分 为即饮型和家庭分享型。 二、市场政策 我国高度重视包括菊花茶饮料在内的食品饮料行业发展，相继发布《食品经营许可和备案管理办法》 《关于加快内外贸一体化发展的若干措施》《关于提升加工贸易发展水平的意见》《碳排放权交易管理 暂行条例》《关于进一步优化食 ...

华润饮料上市后的首份半年报遭遇"倒春寒"。近日，这家以怡宝纯净水闻名的饮料巨头发布盈利预警， 预计2025年上半年净利润同比减少20%~30%，次日股价应声大跌。 文 | 《BUG》栏目 徐苑蕾 当下，华润饮料正经历着转型阵痛。有饮料经销商向《BUG》栏目透露，怡宝的经销商普遍面临"倒 挂"问题。很多经销商认为，问题的根源则在于厂家对价格体系的设计和管理失控，长期依赖补贴而非 市场良性运转。 另有经销商透露，为维持经销商体系运转，华润通过"后返费用"的方式，弥补经销商的亏损和本有的合 理利润，"这种模式不仅违背了正常的贸易规则，还增加了经营风险。" 2024年，华润饮料董事会主席张伟通年薪为227万元，较2023年的438.3万元下滑48%，收入差距主要在 于绩效相关奖金的减少。该奖金在2024年为57.1万元，而2023年为268.8万元。 净利预警，经销商爆渠道隐忧 去年10月，华润饮料在港交所正式上市，而显著的利润下滑，无疑为其上市后的首份半年报蒙上阴影。 华润饮料在近日发布的盈利预警公告中表示，预计2025年上半年净利润同比减少约20%至30%。该消息 随后迅速引发市场反应，公告次日公司股价大幅低开。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beverage (华润饮料) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit decrease of approximately 20% to 30% for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's stock price fell significantly, with a maximum intraday drop of over 14% on July 28, closing down 13.08% [2] - For the first half of 2024, revenue was approximately 13.52 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.66 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.7% [9][10] - The revenue from packaged drinking water in 2024 was 12.12 billion RMB, a decline of 2.6% compared to 2023, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue [10][11] Group 2: Market Competition - The increase in marketing resources and adjustments in product mix have led to a temporary impact on profit performance, with intensified competition in the packaged water industry raising sales and distribution costs [2][9] - The competitive landscape has become more challenging, with competitors like Nongfu Spring launching lower-priced products, leading to a price war in the bottled water market [13] - The company's reliance on packaged drinking water is significant, with its revenue share from this segment decreasing from 95.4% in 2021 to 89.7% in 2024, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [11][13] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Market Response - UBS has set a target price of 18.03 HKD for China Resources Beverage, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite the profit warning [8] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," reducing the target price from 16.4 HKD to 12.1 HKD, and lowered sales forecasts by about 5% and profit forecasts by 26% to 27% for 2025 to 2027 [8]

降本增效持续推进，下半年经营恢复仍取决于市场竞争动态。公司上半年持续推进降本增效动作，我们 预计年内自产产能比例有望提升至60%，其他生产端降本工作如自主铸胚、数字化管理、采购方案优 化、物流优化（增加铁路和水路运输）等持续推进，部分抵消市场竞争带来的不利影响。公司下半年将 根据市场竞争灵活调整投放策略，提升费用使用效率。我们预计随近期部分友商舆论事件发酵等，利好 行业渗透率提升及公司收入恢复，同时从销售结构看公司1H24 为较高基数，我们预计2H25 随基数降 低，公司收入端和利润率端表现有望改善。 公司发布盈警公告，1H25 净利润同比降低20-30%，大幅低于市场预期，主因公司上半年战略加大营销 资源投入、产品组合调整以及渠道调整影响。 关注要点 应对市场竞争加剧战略性加大营销促销力度。1H25 饮料行业竞争加剧，公司观察到包装水行业有所下 滑，市场产品价格折扣力度较大，均价有所下行，为了应对市场竞争，公司战略性增加经销商补贴与投 入，改善经销商盈利，给予经销商更大自主权应对区域市场竞争，公司终端份额基本稳定，但促销费用 对收入端、成本端及费用率均有负面影响。根据中金现代渠道数据，怡宝1-5 月现代渠道 ...

高盛表示仍看好华润饮料的区域饮料业务扩张及渗透潜力，相信生产效率提升将推动包装水业务利润重 拾扩张，但由于销售及渠道调整需时见效，将投资评级由"买入"下调至"中性"，目标价由16.4港元降至 12.1港元。高盛将华润饮料2025至2027年销售预测下调约5%，以包装饮用水销售预期下调约6%，估计 促销及渠道投资增将导致2025年毛利率收窄1.6个百分点，相应将盈利预测下调26%至27%。 高盛发表研究报告指，华润饮料日前发盈警，预料上半年盈利将按年下跌20%至30%，主要由于市场营 销投入增加、产品组合调整及渠道改革，公司预期下半年将维持营销及渠道投资力度，从而在持续激烈 的竞争环境中维持稳定市场份额。 ...

机构：国盛证券 研究员：李梓语/黄越 费用投放加大，调整产品组合，业绩短期承压。公司业绩低于此前市场预期的核心原因主要系：1）公 司基于中长期发展规划，2025 年上半年策略性增加营销资源投入、调整产品组合、逐步推动渠道调 整，对利润表现有阶段性影响。2）公司通过采取适当政策以保障终端市场稳定，实现非水饮料第二增 长曲线推新和打造，并积极采取成本控制措施，优化运营管理，从而抵消部分该等负面影响。 水饮双轮驱动可期，成本红利有望释放。公司作为纯净水行业的龙头，地位稳固，坚持渠道精耕、网点 下沉、区域拓展，重点发力餐饮、家庭等增量渠道；同时，公司积极培育第二子品牌本优系列，聚焦天 然水和矿泉水赛道，包装水份额回升整体可期。饮料端，公司重点打造至本清润、蜜水、假日、魔力等 具备大单品潜力的产品，在低基数的基础下，第二曲线有望实现高增。此外，公司净利润率提升路径明 确，一方面源于自产比例的持续提升，另一方面公司代工成本加速压缩，上下游产业链延展，同时叠加 PET 和白砂糖等成本红利影响，业绩弹性有望进一步释放。 分红预期积极，重视股东回报。董事会预期截至2025 年上半年基于宣派中期股息，具体反映了1）股东 回报承诺 ...

高盛表示仍看好华润饮料的区域饮料业务扩张及渗透潜力，相信生产效率提升将推动包装水业务利润重拾扩张，但由于销售及渠道调整需时见效，将投 资评级由"买入"下调至"中性"，目标价由16.4港元降至12.1港元。高盛将华润饮料2025至2027年销售预测下调约5%，以包装饮用水销售预期下调约6%， 估计促销及渠道投资增将导致2025年毛利率收窄1.6个百分点，相应将盈利预测下调26%至27%。 华润饮料(2460.HK)盘中一度跌超14%报11.16港元，股价创逾5个月新低，截至目前成交额放大至9.6亿港元。 瑞银预计，华润饮料的盈警将对整体饮料行业带来负面影响。同时亦注意到华润饮料计划派发中期股息。该行亦预计，市场对华润饮料的盈警反应负 面，因大幅逊市场预期。另外，该行管理层并无提供任何具体指引，但预期下半年的竞争形势仍不明朗。管理层重申深化渠道改革，重点发展网上、家 居、餐饮渠道等。瑞银对华润饮料目标价为18.03港元，评级"买入"。 华润饮料日前发盈警，预料上半年盈利将同比下跌20%-30%，低于市场预期按年增长双位数。公司管理层在随后的分析师和投资者会议上表示，净利润 下降的主要原因是包装水行业竞争加剧，要求 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" from "Buy" due to short-term performance pressure [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a net profit decline of 20% to 30% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, primarily due to increased marketing investments and product adjustments aimed at long-term growth [1]. - Despite short-term challenges, the company maintains a strong position in the pure water industry and is focusing on expanding its market presence in the restaurant and household segments [2]. - The company is actively working on enhancing its product portfolio, particularly in the beverage sector, with a focus on high-potential products [2]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and reduced outsourcing costs, alongside cost benefits from raw materials [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 12,778 million RMB, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 1,299 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 20.6% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.54 RMB, down from 0.68 RMB in 2024 [5][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on channel refinement and market expansion, particularly in the food and beverage sectors, to drive growth [2][3]. - The introduction of new products under the "Ben You" series is aimed at capturing market share in the natural and mineral water segments [2]. Shareholder Returns - The board is committed to providing sustainable returns to shareholders, with plans to declare interim dividends based on a solid financial position and retained earnings [2].

Group 1 - The company is a leading player in the domestic packaged drinking water industry, becoming the second-largest packaged drinking water and the largest pure water enterprise in China, with its core brand "Yibao" maintaining a significant market share [1] - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-product platform, which is expected to drive future growth [1] - The revenue from the company's large and medium-sized bottled water segment is projected to reach 12.12 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 34.1% of total revenue, with a CAGR of 9.9% from 2021 to 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its production capacity to support its national strategy, with new factories and production lines established in key regions, which will enhance overall capacity and reduce supply bottlenecks [2] - The company is increasing its self-built production capacity, reducing reliance on outsourcing, and optimizing its supply chain to lower packaging material costs, leading to an expected gross margin improvement of approximately 2.6 percentage points to 47.3% in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company has a strong channel network and sales team, covering over two million retail outlets across the country, with a retail terminal coverage rate increasing from 50.6% in 2021 to 77.2% in 2024 [3] - The company has achieved significant growth in e-commerce channels and lower-tier markets, with coverage in third-tier cities and below rising from 51.2% to 57.2% from 2021 to 2024 [3] Group 4 - Revenue projections for the company are 14.54 billion yuan in 2025, 15.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 16.54 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 7.5%, 6.7%, and 6.6% respectively [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.99 billion yuan in 2025, 2.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.52 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth of 21.5%, 14.5%, and 10.9% [4]