收购，把规模做上来，一度是物业行业在销售市场和资本市场双重"丰收"的一条主线。 2020年，数据显示，上市物企披露的有效收购事件共76起，共花费金额107亿元，是2019年有效收并购事件27起的2.81倍。比如，蓝光嘉宝服务先后完成 17次股权收并购，共花费10.1亿元；这一年，共有17家物企成功登陆资本市场，比2014―2018年上市物业数量总和还多7家。 然而，当初买买买的财大气粗，现在变成了退退退的流泪割舍。6月25日，中海物业向鄂州双创之星小区发出撤场公告信，更早一些，金科服务宣布将于 2025年8月 31日正式退出重庆龙兴未来城市小区。 据《每日经济新闻》记者不完全梳理和统计，最近这段时间，已有包括龙湖物业、金科服务、中海物业等在内的10余家物业企业发布主动撤场公告。 或被迫或主动，物业公司原来打下的"江山"正在加速缩小。 撤退潮 物业公司的进入和退出，是市场竞争下再寻常不过的事，但是短短时间内，头部物业接连宣布退出，就有些耐人寻味了。 比如金科服务，在重庆恒春凤凰城小区张贴退出公示，将在8月31日正式撤离，而其在该小区的服务时间高达10年；同一个月，它还退出了重庆龙兴未来 城市小区。龙湖物业近期退 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].

Core Insights - The property service industry in China is experiencing increased competition among top companies, with the top 50 firms adding approximately 84.47 million square meters of new contracts in June 2025, and the top 10 firms accounting for 68.3% of this total [1] Group 1: Market Expansion - In June, the top 10 property service companies had a threshold increase of 51.3% compared to the previous month, reaching 2.71 million square meters for new contracts [1] - China Overseas Property led the new contract area with 12.1 million square meters in June [1] Group 2: Third-Party Expansion Analysis - A total of 50 companies added 74.18 million square meters of new third-party expansion in June, with only four companies achieving a scale of 5 million square meters or more, representing 42.9% of the total [9][10] - The top three sectors for third-party expansion were residential (25.2%), schools (20.8%), and office projects (18.6%) [12] Group 3: Performance of Leading Companies - Poly Property achieved the highest single project contract amount in June, totaling 26.379 million yuan for a city service project in Tianjin [17][22] - The top five companies in terms of new associated area contracts were Greentown Service, Poly Property, China Overseas Property, Longfor Intelligent Living, and Wanwu Cloud, with Greentown Service leading at 1.22 million square meters [23] Group 4: Diverse Business Layout - Leading property companies are increasingly expanding into non-residential sectors to diversify their service offerings and seek new profit growth points [12][14] - Wanwu Cloud had the largest expansion in office and residential projects, with 700,000 square meters and 1.35 million square meters, respectively [15]

Core Insights - The property management industry is experiencing a significant trend of companies voluntarily exiting projects due to various operational challenges and financial pressures [1][3][5] - The turnover rate of residential property management has increased from 1.7% in 2021 to 3.3% in 2024, indicating a growing willingness among homeowners to change property management companies [7][10] Group 1: Company Exits - China Overseas Property announced its exit from the Ezhou Shuangchuang Star community by August 31, 2025, due to low occupancy rates and high unpaid fees, with a total outstanding amount of 595,900 yuan as of January 2025 [1][4] - Jin Ke Service will withdraw from Chongqing Hengchun Phoenix City by August 31, 2025, citing reduced property fees and legacy issues from developers leading to losses [1][4] - Longfor Property is set to exit Shanghai Su Di Chun Xiao community by August 2025 due to unresolved historical issues causing operational risks [1][4] Group 2: Industry Trends - A report by CRIC shows that from 2021 to 2024, the residential property turnover rate has increased, suggesting a trend where approximately 20,000 residential communities change property management annually [2][7] - Many property management companies, including Wanwu Cloud, Shimao Service, and others, have publicly announced their termination and exit from various projects in their 2024 annual reports [2][3] - The ongoing dissatisfaction among homeowners regarding property services has led to a rise in the number of homeowners seeking to change property management companies [10][11] Group 3: Financial Pressures - The primary reasons for property management companies exiting projects include rising costs, declining collection rates, and insufficient growth in value-added services [5][6] - In 2024, Wanwu Cloud exited 53 residential projects, impacting a saturated income of 286 million yuan, while Shimao Service and others also reported significant areas of project exits [6][5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on high-quality growth, prioritizing high-capacity cities and quality clients, as evidenced by China Overseas Property's increase in new contract amounts in core urban areas [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Several property management companies are actively withdrawing from projects due to low collection rates, long-term losses, and unresolved issues with developers and homeowners [1][4][6] Group 1: Reasons for Withdrawal - Companies like China Overseas Property and Kincai Service have announced their exit from projects due to low occupancy rates and accumulated unpaid property fees, leading to long-term losses [1][3] - Goldfinch Property cited continuous losses and increasing operational costs as reasons for its withdrawal from the Xiangyin project, where property fees were not paid due to issues unrelated to property management [2][3] - The withdrawal trend includes over 10 property management firms, driven by low collection rates, unresolved historical issues with developers, and escalating conflicts with homeowners and committees [1][4] Group 2: Financial Implications - The property fee collection rate in 2024 is reported to be 82%, a decrease of approximately 3 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a challenging financial environment for property management companies [5][6] - Companies are facing rising costs in labor and infrastructure maintenance, which are testing their profitability [5][6] Group 3: Strategic Shift - The trend of active withdrawal reflects a strategic shift from "scale-first" to "quality-first," with companies focusing on core urban areas like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area [7] - Companies are optimizing resource allocation by exiting projects with low collection rates and high operational costs, aiming to enhance service quality in more viable projects [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market conditions remaining challenging despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery [4][32] - The report highlights the importance of strong product capability and inventory management in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 2% increase while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 38% decline [6] - In July, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities dropped by 25% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities also down by 25% [9][10] - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 1% week-on-week, with a current available area of 88.85 million square meters [23] Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations and promote recovery in the real estate market [32][33] - Local policies include the expansion of housing provident fund loans in Nanjing and new policies in Hainan and Guangzhou to facilitate housing loans [32][33] Company Dynamics - Vanke has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group, marking the sixth loan transaction this year [5] - Poly Developments reported sales of 29 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year, while China Overseas Development reported 29.7 billion yuan, down 36% [5] - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, including companies like China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Property Management Industry Expo opened in Qingdao, focusing on "Improving Service Quality and Creating Harmonious Scenes" [2] - The event attracted property management companies, service providers, and technology suppliers from across the country, showcasing the achievements of the industry and aligning with national housing construction meeting directives [2][3] - The expo is organized by the China Property Management Association, with support from various local property management associations [3] Group 2 - China Overseas Property showcased its "Good Service" system, celebrating its 10th anniversary since listing, with a special exhibition area highlighting its development and innovations [3] - The company presented its subsidiaries, including Hai Na Wan Shang focusing on commercial properties, Xing Hai Wu Lian showcasing smart park technologies, and Hai Bo Engineering excelling in integrated facility management [3] - The company emphasizes its commitment to safety, employee rights, and green development, aiming for high-quality property services and community building [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][31]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery with a week-on-week increase in both new and second-hand property transactions, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for continued policy support to enhance market conditions, particularly in light of the ongoing inventory reduction trends [4][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 3.792 million square meters, representing a week-on-week increase of 51.1% [5][8]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in June decreased by 13%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a decline of 11% and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 26% drop [8][9]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities remained stable with a slight increase of 0.5%, while the cumulative transaction volume for June showed a year-on-year decrease of 5% [13][22]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 15 cities launched 1.82 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.85, indicating ongoing inventory management challenges [22][31]. - The total available housing inventory in these cities was 89.79 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights key policy developments aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to support first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children [31][34]. - Recent statements from government officials indicate a commitment to expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer confidence in the real estate sector [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate market in May continued to show stability, aligning with the government's efforts to stabilize the market and prevent further declines [3][60] - Key indicators such as sales area and sales amount showed narrow fluctuations compared to April, with sales area declining by 4.6% year-on-year and sales amount decreasing by 7.1% [5][60] - The report anticipates that urban renewal will be a significant focus, with an emphasis on "building good houses" as a consensus in the industry [61][62] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - In May, the real estate market maintained a steady state, with most data showing narrow fluctuations compared to April [5][60] - Year-on-year sales area decreased by 4.6%, while sales amount fell by 7.1% [5][60] - The report notes that the overall trend is expected to continue, with a focus on stabilizing the market [3][60] 2. Investment Trends - The cumulative real estate development investment from January to May 2025 was 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [12] - New construction area saw a year-on-year decline of 22.8%, while completed area decreased by 17.3% [18][26] - The report suggests that the focus should shift from year-on-year growth rates to absolute levels, with a projected total real estate development investment of 10 trillion yuan for 2024 [61][62] 3. Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 35.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9% [26][28] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 34,091 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [10][26] - The report highlights a mismatch in supply and demand in first-tier cities, with sales showing significant strength [33] 4. Funding Sources - Total funding sources for real estate reached 40,232 billion yuan from January to May 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year [45][47] - Domestic loans accounted for 16.6% of funding sources, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [47][49] - The report indicates that self-raised funds decreased by 7.2%, while foreign investment saw a significant increase of 49% [47][56] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development in the development category [62] - For commercial and residential sectors, companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group are highlighted [62] - The report emphasizes that companies with lower burdens will have a more significant advantage in the current structural market [62]