股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中海物業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 30,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 30,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 30,00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Summary of Zhonghai Property Conference Call Company Overview - Zhonghai Property reported a 4.3% year-on-year increase in shareholder profit to HKD 770 million, with a net profit margin of 10.9% [2][4] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.09 per share, up by HKD 0.005, with a payout ratio of 35.7% [2][4] - A special dividend of HKD 1 per share was announced to celebrate the company's 10th anniversary [2][4] Financial Performance - Over the past five years, Zhonghai Property has shown steady growth in revenue, profit, and shareholder profit, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 20% [2][5] - Shareholder profit CAGR reached 23.8%, maintaining a net profit margin of 10% [2][5] - For the first half of 2025, revenue grew by 3.7% to HKD 7.1 billion, and gross profit increased by 4.7% to HKD 1.2 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 0.2 percentage points to 17% [4] Revenue and Profit Structure - The main revenue stream from property management accounts for 79%, while value-added services contribute 21% [2][6] - Gross profit from property management is 72%, with value-added services at 28% [2][6] - Gross margins for property management and value-added services improved to 15.5% and 22.5%, respectively [2][6] Project Management and Expansion - Zhonghai Property operates in 163 cities with 2,301 projects, managing a total area of 1.436 billion square meters [2][7] - In the first half of the year, the company added 32 million square meters, with third-party projects making up nearly 85% and non-residential projects close to 60% [2][7] - The company has implemented a strategy to rectify or exit underperforming projects, with a renewal rate of over 90% for profitable external projects [2][8] Strategic Focus - Zhonghai Property has adopted a high contract, high conversion, and high efficiency strategy, setting minimum gross margin thresholds for new residential, commercial, and urban service projects to ensure profitability [2][9] - The urban services market is estimated to be in the trillion-dollar range, with a CAGR of about 20%, focusing on government-funded projects such as hospitals and schools [3][14] Cash Management and Future Outlook - The company has cash reserves of approximately HKD 5 billion, sufficient to support long-term projects with extended payment terms [3][14] - Zhonghai Property is actively seeking acquisition opportunities, considering factors like business complementarity and sustainability [22] - The company plans to enhance its non-residential and urban service sectors while increasing the share of value-added services in its overall business [21] Challenges and Adjustments - The company faces pressure on revenue and profit margins in both residential and non-residential value-added services due to market conditions [16][17] - Adjustments in business structure have been made to improve profitability, particularly in intermediary services and retail offerings [18][19] Conclusion - Zhonghai Property is positioned for continued growth with a focus on strategic project management, cash reserves, and market expansion, while navigating challenges in the current economic landscape [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to continuous improvement in project management scale and profitability, with projected net profits increasing from 16.1 billion to 19.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company has maintained revenue and profit growth since its listing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% in revenue and 25.7% in profit from 2019 to 2024 [1] - The profit growth rate for 2024 is expected to exceed the revenue growth rate, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 0.7 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points to 16.6% and 10.8% respectively, primarily due to improved gross margin in basic property management [1] - The dividend payout ratio has remained around 30% from 2019 to 2023, increasing to 35.8% in 2024, although it remains relatively low compared to mainstream property management companies [1] Group 2: Project Management and Market Position - As of the end of 2024, the company managed an area of 431 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with 60.6% of this area from related parties and 71.3% being residential [2] - The company signed new contracts for an area of 74.1 million square meters in 2024, with 63.3% from third parties, and the new contract value reached 4.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year price increase of 21.6% [2] - The related party, China Overseas Development, achieved the highest sales scale in the industry in 2024, with a market share of 3.21% and land acquisition amounting to 80.6 billion yuan, leading the industry with 77% of acquisitions in first-tier cities [2] Group 3: Value-Added Business Development - The company has diversified its value-added services, with residential value-added business revenue growing at a CAGR of 28.6% from 2019 to 2024, although the overall gross margin has been affected by the increased revenue share from lower-margin community retail and home decoration businesses [2] - Non-residential value-added business revenue and gross margin have declined due to the downturn in real estate sales, with future focus shifting towards engineering service business [2] - Parking services revenue has decreased in recent years due to the impact of real estate sales, despite signing framework agreements for parking space transactions with related parties [2]

Core Viewpoint - Open Source Securities initiates coverage on China Overseas Property (02669) with a "Buy" rating, projecting net profit for 2025-2027 at 1.61 billion, 1.76 billion, and 1.96 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.54, and 0.60 yuan, indicating a current PE of 9.5, 8.7, and 7.8 times [1] Group 1 - The company is a subsidiary of China State Construction Group under China Overseas Group, with stable land acquisition and a significant increase in market share [1] - The scale of projects under management continues to grow, with an exit from loss-making projects and the delivery of high-end residential properties, leading to an improvement in profitability [1] - Since its listing, the company has maintained growth in both revenue and profit, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% and 25.7% for revenue and profit from 2019 to 2024, respectively [1] Group 2 - The revenue from basic property management accounts for over 70% of total revenue, remaining the primary source of income for the company [1] - In 2024, profit growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 0.7 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points to 16.6% and 10.8%, respectively, primarily due to the improvement in gross margin from basic property management [1] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 30% from 2019 to 2023, which is expected to increase to 35.8% in 2024, although this remains relatively low compared to mainstream property companies [1]

Macro Economic Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the use of more proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade, and to improve people's livelihoods [3][4] - Recent policies focus on industrial internet applications and the development of new energy sectors, indicating a shift towards digitalization and innovation [3][4] Fixed Income Market - As of August 2025, the total bond custody amount reached 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 15,060.06 million yuan, indicating a slight decrease in growth compared to previous months [9][10] - The leverage ratio in the bond market slightly increased to 106.88%, reflecting a cautious optimism in the market [13][14] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is entering a new growth phase driven by innovation and optimization of centralized procurement, with major companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products showing robust revenue growth [17][18] - The recent adjustments in the national medical insurance directory are expected to benefit innovative drugs, leading to potential rapid growth for companies involved [18][19] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The performance of non-bank financial companies is primarily driven by property and equity investments, with significant contributions from the property insurance sector [21][22] - The net profit growth of listed insurance companies improved in the first half of 2025, largely due to the profitability of property insurance [21][24] Agricultural Sector - The price of white feather chicken increased due to supply disruptions and rising demand, with the average selling price reaching 7.17 yuan/kg in August 2025 [30][31] - The egg market faces pressure from high production capacity, limiting the potential for price increases despite some upward movement in prices [32][33] Machinery Industry - The valuation of global robotics companies is being redefined, with Figure's recent funding round valuing the company at 39 billion USD, indicating a bullish outlook for the robotics sector [37][38] - Key components in robotics are expected to see significant valuation increases, with potential PE ratios reaching 200 times as the industry matures [38][39] Consumer Services Sector - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost travel bookings, with a steady increase in pre-booking trends observed [42][45] - The tea and coffee sector continues to show strong performance, with leading brands expanding their market presence despite some overall industry slowdowns [43][45] Real Estate and Construction - China Overseas Property is experiencing growth in both scale and profitability, with projected net profits increasing from 16.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 19.6 billion yuan by 2027 [47][48] - The company is focusing on high-quality expansion and has seen a significant increase in managed area and new contract signings [49][50] Electronics Industry - The domestic high-power server power supply market is growing, with companies like Oulu Tong positioned as leaders in this space, benefiting from the rise of AI applications [51][52] - The demand for higher power server supplies is expected to increase, with new products in development to meet the needs of advanced AI servers [53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate development sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binhai Group, while "Hold" is given to companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development [6][35][60]. Core Insights - The real estate development sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.85, with a historical percentile of 31.46% as of September 19, 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1][11]. - The property service sector has a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 47.78, with a historical percentile of 75.95%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to historical averages [2][38]. - Recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to increased transaction volumes in the new housing market, particularly in Shanghai, where transaction intensity increased by 62.5% post-policy implementation [3][70]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector - As of September 19, 2025, the real estate development sector has seen a 5.2% increase in stock prices from September 1 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.05 percentage points [1][29]. - Key companies in the A-share market with the highest stock price increases include Binhai Group (+34.68%), New Town Holdings (+31.77%), and Huafa Group (+0.99%) [1][31]. - In the H-share market, China Jinmao (+63.25%), Jianfa International Group (+49.68%), and China Overseas Hongyang Group (+48.88%) led the gains [1][31]. Property Service Sector - The property service sector experienced a 4.1% increase from September 1 to September 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.97 percentage points [2][49]. - The top-performing A-share companies in the property service sector include Nandu Property (+67.33%), New Dazheng (+46.07%), and China Merchants Jinling (+14.70%) [2][55]. - In the H-share market, the leading companies were China Resources Vientiane Life (+52.36%), Jianfa Property (+42.22%), and Greentown Service (+35.34%) [2][55]. Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Since August 2025, favorable policies have been introduced, including measures in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which have significantly boosted new housing transactions [3][68]. - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in Shanghai surged by 62.5% following the policy changes, indicating a strong market response [4][70]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with core cities expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives [5][79].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Property (02669.HK) for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in profitability due to an increase in managed project scale and the exit of loss-making projects, alongside the delivery of high-end residential projects [6]. - Revenue and profit have maintained growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% for revenue and 25.7% for profit from 2019 to 2024 [7]. - The company has a strong market position, with a significant share in the property management sector, particularly in first-tier cities [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Overseas Property is a subsidiary of China State Construction Group and has nearly 40 years of experience in real estate management [18]. - The company has a robust management team with extensive industry experience, and it has maintained a stable shareholding structure with China Overseas Group holding 61.18% [20][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 14.024 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit of HKD 1.511 billion, up 12.5% [10][42]. - The gross margin and net margin improved to 16.6% and 10.8%, respectively, driven by an increase in the gross margin of core property management services [42]. Growth and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company managed an area of 431 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with a significant portion of projects coming from related parties [8][68]. - The company signed new contracts covering an area of 74.1 million square meters in 2024, with a contract value of HKD 4.44 billion, reflecting a 21.6% increase in average contract price [8]. Diversification of Services - The company has diversified its value-added services, with household value-added services growing at a CAGR of 28.6% from 2019 to 2024 [9]. - Non-household value-added services have faced challenges due to a downturn in real estate sales, but the company plans to focus on engineering services for future growth [9]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio, increasing to 35.8% in 2024, although this remains lower compared to mainstream property companies [54][56].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 3.7% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 4.3%, and declared an interim and special dividend of HKD 0.10 per share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; gross profit was 1.2 billion, up 4.7%; and net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million, reflecting a 4.3% increase [1] - The company’s overall gross margin improved to 17.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The company’s core property management, owner-added value, and non-owner-added value businesses generated revenues of 5.6 billion, 610 million, and 860 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.3%, -11.6%, and -5.9% [2] - The company’s property management area under management reached 440 million square meters as of June 30, 2025, with residential properties accounting for 72.6% [2] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - China Overseas Property's total sales in August were 18.4 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while cumulative sales from January to August were 150.3 billion, down 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The company has increased its focus on non-residential property management, with 59% of new property management orders in H1 2025 coming from non-residential projects [2] Group 4: Dividend and Receivables Management - The company declared a total interim and special dividend of 300 million, with a payout ratio of 39%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the company’s total trade receivables amounted to 3.5 billion, with a net value of 3.2 billion after impairment, indicating manageable receivables [3]