证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-21 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 30.17 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）265.78 | / 205.88 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）8,018 | / 6,211 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 32.38 / 15.02 | | 资产负债率(%) | 55.2% | | 市盈率 | 24.93 | | 第一大股东 | 闽西兴杭国有资产投资 | | 经营有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 紫金矿业(601899) Q3 表现亮眼，静待 Q4 业绩更上楼一层 l 公司发布 25 年三季报，Q3 实现归母净利润 146 亿元 公司发布三季报，Q1-Q3，公司实现营业收入 2542 亿元，同比增 长 10.3%；实现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rebound in Hong Kong gold stocks on October 21, with notable increases in share prices for several companies [1] Group 2 - Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) saw a rise of 4.91%, reaching HKD 32.02 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) increased by 3.33%, with shares priced at HKD 33.56 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787.HK) experienced a 2.35% gain, trading at HKD 36.56 [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) rose by 2.18%, with a share price of HKD 19.22 [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) increased by 1.81%, reaching HKD 30.3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a surge in gold stocks, with notable increases in companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, Lingbao Gold, and Shandong Gold [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhaojin Mining experienced a nearly 5% increase in its stock price [1] - Zijin Mining, Lingbao Gold, and Shandong Gold also followed suit with upward movements in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced a collective rebound in early trading, with notable increases in companies such as Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 4.91% to HKD 32.02, Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.33% to HKD 33.56, and Shandong Gold (01787) up 2.35% to HKD 36.56 [1][1][1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to the ongoing U.S. federal government "shutdown," which has led to increased market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the prospect of global central banks increasing their gold holdings [1][1][1] - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange reached USD 4,359.4 per ounce, marking a 3.47% increase and setting a new intraday historical high [1][1][1] Group 2 - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report indicates that the upward momentum for gold is expected to continue until 2026, driven by strong gold purchases from central banks, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing [1][1][1] - HSBC has set a target price for gold at USD 5,000, reflecting the anticipated sustained demand and market conditions [1][1][1]

南财投研通数据显示，10月20日，券商给予上市公司目标价共19次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有华友钴业、紫金矿业、海康威视，目标价涨幅分别为56.95%、46.86%、33.19%，分别 属于能源金属、工业金属、计算机设备行业。 评级调低方面，10月20日，群益证券(香港)对海光信息的评级从"买进"调低至"区间操作"。 | | | 1家最新被调低评级的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 688041 海光信息 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 区间操作 | 半导体 | | | | 日期：10月20日，南财投研通×南财快讯制图 | | | 首次覆盖方面，10月20日券商共给出了5次首次覆盖，其中晨光生物获得山西证券给予"买入"评级，百 合花获得招商证券给予"增持"评级，威高血净获得东莞证券给予"增持"评级，天奈科技获得东北证券给 予"买入"评级，九号公司获得华源证券给予"增持"评级。 | | | | 10月20日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - On October 20, 2023, brokerage firms set target prices for listed companies 19 times, with notable increases for Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and Hikvision, showing target price increases of 56.95%, 46.86%, and 33.19% respectively [1] Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 32 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 20, with Hikvision receiving 5 recommendations, Zijin Mining 4, and Sankeshu 3 [1] Rating Adjustments - On October 20, Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) downgraded the rating of Haiguang Information from "Buy" to "Hold" [1]

Group 1 - The top three stocks with net inflows from southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with 1.284 billion, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 1.061 billion, and Alibaba-W (09988) with 754 million [1][2] - The top three stocks with net outflows from southbound funds are Zijin Mining (02899) with -390 million, Kuaishou-W (01024) with -342 million, and SMIC (00981) with -299 million [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratio, GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) leads with 81.55%, followed by China National Freight (00598) with 73.16%, and Far East Horizon (03360) with 62.84% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflows include Yingfu Fund (02800) at 1.284 billion with a net inflow ratio of 9.39%, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) at 1.061 billion with a net inflow ratio of 8.90% [2] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflows include Zijin Mining (02899) at -390 million with a net outflow ratio of -15.10%, and Kuaishou-W (01024) at -342 million with a net outflow ratio of -15.96% [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflow ratios are Gushengtang (02273) at -49.31%, Weishi Jiajie (00856) at -45.22%, and Green Power Environmental Protection (01330) at -44.61% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international gold prices has significantly catalyzed the profitability and market value of Zijin Mining, with a reported net profit increase of 55.5% to 37.86 billion yuan in Q3, marking a historical high for the company [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's Q3 net profit reached 14.57 billion yuan, setting a new record for quarterly earnings [1][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gold production accounted for 40.4% of total gross profit, making it the largest profit source [1][7]. - The company has adjusted its full-year profit forecast to approximately 51 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the rising gold prices, there has been a divergence between gold stocks and gold prices since the beginning of Q4, with stocks like Zijin Mining experiencing a pullback [2][12]. - The average price of gold rose from 2,624 USD/oz to around 3,858 USD/oz, a 47% increase, while copper prices only increased by 17% during the same period [3]. Group 3: Production and Sales - Zijin Mining's gold ingot and concentrate sales prices reached 746.43 yuan/gram and 685.21 yuan/gram, respectively, with a gross margin of 72.8%, up nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The company reported a 20% year-on-year increase in gold production for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 65 tons [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The continued rise in international gold prices is expected to sustain Zijin Mining's performance, with potential for further profit growth in Q4 [1]. - However, the company's stock price has not kept pace with gold price increases, raising concerns about future performance alignment [12].

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Lithium Industry has officially resumed production as of October 11, 2025, with a revised annual production and sales plan of 8,510 tons, down from the original 11,000 tons, reflecting a reduction of 2,490 tons [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.751 billion yuan, up 47.26% year-on-year [2] - The significant profit increase is primarily due to investment income from its stake in Jilong Copper Industry, which reported a copper production of 142,500 tons and revenue of 11.821 billion yuan for the same period [3] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Cangge Mining's future growth will rely on the synergistic development of its three main business segments: potassium fertilizer, copper resources, and lithium resources from salt lakes [1][6] - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper Industry, which is a major contributor to its profits, and plans to continue supporting Jilong's operational development [4][5] Group 3: Investment Activities - Cangge Mining announced plans to invest up to 659 million yuan in the Jiangsu Zangqing New Energy Industry Development Fund, which focuses on equity investments in salt lake lithium mining companies [8] - The first investment target of the Jiangsu Zangqing Fund is the acquisition of controlling interest in the Mami Cuo Salt Lake, which has proven lithium chloride resources of approximately 250.11 thousand tons [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 55.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a 57.1% increase in Q3 alone, driven by rising gold prices and production [1] - The gold segment has become the largest profit contributor, with Q3 gold gross profit accounting for 45.7%, surpassing the copper segment's 36.2% [1] - Zijin Mining's gold production reached 65 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a 20% increase year-on-year, while copper production was 830,000 tons, up 5% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on exploration and mergers & acquisitions as dual growth drivers, alongside plans to list Zijin Gold International and reassess overseas gold assets [1] - Due to the growth in copper and gold production and rising prices, the profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised upwards to 51.9 billion, 66.3 billion, and 70.8 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15x, 12x, and 11x based on the closing price on October 17 [1] - The article maintains a "recommended" rating for Zijin Mining [1]