以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者沈晖 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 作为吹票届的大师兄，整个十月，全球市场都被高盛的三篇报告牵动着敏感的神经：一篇《为什么我们 不在泡沫中》，一篇《驱动AI时代》，还有一篇《AI与国防使电网成为能源安全核心》。 其中第三篇指出， 铜正在成为 AI 时代的新石油 。 观点其实并不新鲜，就像过去分析师常提，锂是新能源时代的白色石油。去年 5 月，高盛也不是没有吹 过电网和数据中心会创造巨大的铜需求，刚预测完今年涨到 1.5万美元/吨，铜就开始暴跌。A股算力炒 了好几轮，铜的走势还是异常波折。 然而这次恰逢供给端黑天鹅突降，印尼的世界第二大铜矿因泥石流停摆。国际铜价开启暴涨，紫金矿 业、洛阳钼业的股价加速狂飙，国庆假期，各大景区的朱炳仁·铜，也围满了群众，抢购热情丝毫不亚于 同期一起凌厉上涨的黄金和白银。 一时间，全球都把贵金属、工业金属、稀土金属抢得炙手可热。 铜被视为新的石油，白银被视为新的 锂，黄金被视为新的货币。 满世界找不到稀土的川普，计划去太平洋海底非法挖稀土。 达利欧说，世界正在重回20世纪70年代。那轮大宗牛市，马克·里奇凭借与伊朗政府的关系，提前获知 石油减 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][36]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3, with revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [1][9]. - The successful listing of Zijin Gold International on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to enhance the company's valuation [3][30]. - The company has completed several significant acquisitions this year, including the Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok Gold Mine in Kazakhstan, which are expected to contribute positively to future production and profitability [3][29]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, gold production reached 64.95 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.68%, while copper production was 829,900 tons, up 5.12% year-on-year [2][11]. - The unit operating costs for gold, copper, zinc, and silver have increased, indicating rising cost pressures [2][17]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 24.93%, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percentage points, with gold and copper gross margins at 62.17% and 60.93%, respectively [19][26]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 377.8 billion, 425.7 billion, and 445.6 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 12.7%, and 4.7% [4][36]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 51.483 billion, 63.559 billion, and 69.864 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 60.6%, 23.5%, and 9.9% [4][36]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5, 12.6, and 11.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guosen Securities has given Zijin Mining (601899.SH, latest price: 29.45 CNY) an "outperform" rating based on its strong financial performance and resource foundation [1] - In the third quarter, Zijin Mining achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 14.6 billion CNY, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 11% [1] - Zijin Mining's resource base is continuously being strengthened, highlighted by the listing of Zijin Gold International on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced a collective rebound in early trading, with notable increases in share prices: Zhaojin Mining rose by 4.91% to HKD 32.02, Zijin Mining increased by 3.33% to HKD 33.56, Shandong Gold rose by 2.35% to HKD 36.56, Lingbao Gold increased by 2.18% to HKD 19.22, and Chifeng Jilong Gold rose by 1.81% to HKD 30.3 [3] - The surge in gold prices was driven by ongoing concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and central banks globally increasing their gold holdings [3] - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached USD 4,359.4 per ounce, marking a 3.47% increase [3] Group 2 - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report indicates that the upward momentum for gold is expected to continue until 2026, supported by strong gold purchases from central banks, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations for further monetary easing [3] - The target price for gold set by HSBC is USD 5,000 per ounce, reflecting the anticipated sustained demand and market conditions [3]

公司发布三季报：前三季度实现营收 2542 亿元，同比+10.33%；实现归母净 利润378.64 亿元，同比+55.45%；实现扣非净利润341.27 亿元，同比+43.71%。 公司于 25Q3 实现营收 864.89 亿元，同比+8.14%，环比-2.58%；实现归母净 利润 145.72 亿元，同比+57.14%，环比+11.02%；实现扣非净利润 125.03 亿 元，同比+50.37%，环比+6.47%。公司三季度业绩表现亮眼。 核心矿产品产量方面：今年前三季度，矿产金产量为 64.95 吨，同比+19.68%， 完成全年产量计划的 76.41%；矿产铜产量为 82.99 万吨，同比+5.12%，完成 全年产量计划的 72.17%；矿产锌产量为 27.11 万吨，同比-12.46%；矿产银 产量为 335.35 吨，同比+1.28%；碳酸锂产量为 1.1 万吨，碳酸锂产能逐步 进入到放量阶段。公司矿产金产量实现高速增长，这主要是得益于在前几年 有非常多的金矿项目的并购，因此在金价不断创历史新高的背景下，Q3 金矿 量价齐增，是推动业绩同比和环比大幅提升的核心因素。 证券研究报告 | 2025年10 ...

连续两个月涨幅均超过10%，今年累计涨幅超过60%，黄金价格势如破竹的背后，是刚性需求驱动还是投机泡沫？ 智通财经APP了解到，近期特朗普关税战以及美联储的降息预期导致投资者避险情绪升温，黄金价格波动加大，并呈现加速拉升趋势。 而今年以来，黄金价格持续上涨，不断突破新高，10个月有9个月都在上涨，仅有7月份微调0.4%，黄金价格从年初约2600美元/盎司一路 比啊涨至目前约4300美元盎司，升幅高达65.4%。 曾记得在4月份，黄金价格突破3400美元，多头主力高盛喊出黄金价格4500美元/盎司的极端目标价，悲观者仍认为不可能达到，然而价 格一路上涨，国庆后已突破4000美元/盎司，高盛又喊出了5000美元/盎司的极端价。投资者蜂拥而至，不断推高金价，一步一步验证了多 头主力极端价的研判。 然而"高处不胜寒"，10月20日触摸到4398美元/盎司的高点后回落，次日跌幅超过5%，那么黄金价格上涨的逻辑是什么，回调之后能否再 北上，而黄金板块还有机会吗？ 三大硬核逻辑支撑金价长期上涨 智通财经APP观察到，黄金价格持续上涨主要基于三大硬核逻辑：一是避险需求持续升温；二是全球央行购金热的持续驱动；三是市场 追涨杀跌 ...

新华财经上海10月22日电（葛佳明） 资本市场有一个经典规律，大涨之后通常容易伴随大跌。这一规律在黄金及白银的近期走势中体现尤为明显。受贵金 属价格走弱影响，黄金股走势承压。 结合近几周的金银行情来看，这次金银价格大跌更像是情绪性加速行情的"退潮"。华安基金指数与量化投资部首席黄金研究员周泓灏接受新华财经采访时表 示，金银价格回调的主因是短期的拥挤度过高，背后的驱动因素是近期地缘风险趋弱、关税矛盾缓和。 对于黄金未来走势，周泓灏表示，尽管短线下挫，但美联储货币宽松预期对于黄金走势的中期利好并未动摇，黄金在全球不确定性的背景下依然具备中长期 配置价值。 但对黄金股后续走势，有分析师表示，因此前黄金股涨幅超越贵金属本身走势，回调时间更早且幅度更大，同时部分企业三季报不如预期，或均使相关企业 走势承压。 黄金股大幅下挫 21日晚间，不断刷新历史新高的金银价格直线跳水。现货黄金一度下跌6.3%，创下自2013年4月以来的最大单日跌幅；现货白银跌幅更甚，一度下挫8.7%。 受贵金属价格调整影响，黄金股22日走弱，其中，湖南白银跌近8%，近5日跌幅达14.89%；招金黄金跌近4%，近5日跌幅达10.68%；山东黄金跌幅达 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [10] Core Views - The strong growth in gold business is primarily driven by rising gold prices, while copper production has been affected by the Kamoa Copper Mine [2][9] - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, up 8.14% year-on-year, and net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, up 57.14% year-on-year [1][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining reported operating revenue of 864.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a net profit of 145.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.14% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2542.00 billion yuan, up 10.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 378.64 billion yuan, up 55.45% year-on-year [1] Mineral Production - In Q3 2025, the company produced 263,100 tons of copper, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, while gold production reached 23.76 tons, an increase of 25.98% year-on-year [2] - The total revenue from copper business was 141.69 billion yuan, up 19.12% year-on-year, with a total gross profit of 85.24 billion yuan, reflecting a gross profit margin of 60.16% [3] Gold Business - The gold business generated total revenue of 169.34 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant increase of 81.81% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 107.70 billion yuan, up 104.46% year-on-year [4][8] - The company successfully completed the IPO of its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, raising 287 billion HKD, marking it as the largest IPO in the global gold mining industry [9] Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts upward due to rising gold and copper prices, predicting revenues of 3526.83 billion yuan, 3879.77 billion yuan, and 4066.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 534.41 billion yuan, 632.85 billion yuan, and 710.34 billion yuan [10][12]

华源证券研报指出，紫金矿业2025年Q1-Q3实现归母净利润378.64亿元，同比增长55.45%；单Q3看，实 现归母净利润145.72亿元，同比增长57.14%，环比增长11.02%，基本符合预期。受益于铜价上涨，Q1- Q3平均吨毛利上涨6%至3.80万元/吨；受益于金价上涨，Q1-Q3平均克金毛利上涨64%至448元/克。此 外，碳酸锂项目稳步推进，有望供给业绩增量。公司通过内生外延持续扩大资源禀赋，铜金产量有望持 续提升，在金铜价格持续上涨背景下，公司业绩有望持续量价齐升。上调公司2025-2027年归母净利润 分别为511/621/729亿元，EPS分别为1.92/2.34/2.74元/股，对应PE为15.5/12.7/10.9倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Zijin Mining (02899) benefited from rising gold and copper prices, achieving a revenue of 86.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0% [1] Group 1 - The production of gold significantly exceeded the annual plan's progress [1] - Copper production decreased quarter-on-quarter due to the flooding incident at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, but the company is actively working on resuming production in the eastern section of the Kamoa mine [1] Group 2 - On September 30, Zijin Gold International (02259) successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, setting multiple IPO records for mining companies [1] - As the controlling shareholder of Zijin Gold International, the company stands to benefit from future high growth and potential value re-evaluation, which may enhance its overall market value [1] Group 3 - Zijin Gold International has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, with all conditions for the delivery agreement being met or waived as of October 10, 2025 [1]