Group 1: Market Focus and Institutional Holdings - The capital market is increasingly focused on the changes in holdings of well-known institutions as the 2025 Q3 reports are being disclosed [1] - High Yi Asset has shown a preference for Zijin Mining, with its High Yi Xiaofeng No. 2 Fund increasing its holdings from 180.35 million shares at the end of Q3 2024 to 198.67 million shares by the end of Q2 2025, before reducing to 180.07 million shares by the end of Q3 2025, a decrease of approximately 18.6 million shares [2] - The High Yi Xiaofeng No. 2 Fund remains the ninth largest shareholder of Zijin Mining as of Q3 2025, while the Foreign Trade Trust has exited the top ten shareholders list [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Investments - Some private equity firms are focusing on the electronics industry, with 聚鸣投资's funds being among the top ten shareholders of 达瑞电子, holding a total of 3.21 million shares [3] - 睿郡资产's funds have entered the top ten shareholders of 扬杰科技, collectively holding 10.96 million shares as of Q3 2025 [3] - 玄元投资's funds have maintained their position in 史丹利, while increasing their holdings in 康众医疗 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is viewed as a structural bull market since September 2024, with future performance dependent on the recovery of the economic fundamentals [4] - Recent market adjustments are seen as healthy, driven by profit-taking and the cautious approach of funds during the Q3 report disclosure period [4] - Investment strategies emphasize a balanced approach, with a focus on sectors such as energy storage, non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, electronics, and the internet [4]

Summary of Zijin Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining (2899 HK/601899 CH) - **Industry**: Metals & Mining Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Net Profit**: RMB 14.6 billion, an increase of 11% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 57% year-on-year (y-o-y) [1][10] - **Mined Gold Sales Volume**: Increased by 9% q-o-q and 27% y-o-y [1] - **Mined Copper Sales Volume**: Remained flat q-o-q but increased by 8% y-o-y [1] - **Average Selling Price (ASP) of Mined Gold**: Increased by 4% q-o-q and 43% y-o-y [1] - **Unit Cost of Mined Gold**: Increased by 3% q-o-q and 20% y-o-y to approximately RMB 280/g [1] - **Gross Margin for Mined Gold**: Improved to 63.6%, up 7 percentage points (ppt) y-o-y, flat q-o-q [1] Strategic Outlook - **Output Targets**: - Copper: 1.5-1.6 million tons (mt) by 2028, revised target for 2025 to 1.1 mt [2] - Gold: 100-110 tons by 2028, with Zijin Gold International targeting approximately 100 tons annually by 2030 [2] - **Cost Management**: Focus on cost optimization before scaling lithium output, with full-year cost inflation for gold and copper expected to remain within 5-8% y-o-y [2] - **Earnings Momentum**: Anticipated sustained gold price strength and operational efficiency improvements to support earnings in 4Q25 and FY26 [2] Investment Ratings and Target Prices - **Rating**: Maintain Buy on H/A shares [3] - **Target Prices**: - H-share: Increased to HKD 43.00 from HKD 41.80, implying a 33% upside [3][5] - A-share: Increased to RMB 39.20 from RMB 38.00, implying a 32% upside [3][5] Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth**: Projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% for 2024-2027 [3] - **Earnings Estimates**: Increased for 2025/26/27 by 5%/10%/6% respectively [3][23] Risks and Challenges - **Potential Risks**: - Delays in new capacity construction - Lower metal prices - Geopolitical conflicts affecting overseas operations - Overambitious mergers and acquisitions (M&A) impacting financials - Rising production costs due to inflation and stricter regulations [26] Additional Insights - **One-off Gains**: Approximately RMB 1.5 billion from changes in fair value of financial assets [1] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately HKD 872.25 billion (USD 112.29 billion) [6] - **Free Float**: 77% for both H and A shares [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Zijin Mining's financial performance, strategic outlook, investment ratings, and associated risks.

事件：公司发布2025 年三季报。报告期内，2025 年前三个季度公司实现营业收入2542 亿元，同比 +10.3%；实现归母净利润378.64 亿元，同比+55.4%；实现扣非后归母净利润341.27 亿元，同比 +43.7%。单季度来看，25Q3 实现营业收入864.89 亿元，同比+8.14%，环比-2.58%；实现归母净利润 146 亿元，同比+57%，环比+11%。 报告期内，主营产品量价齐增，扩产稳步推进，成本相对可控 从量方面来看，2025 年前三个季度①铜：矿产铜产量83 万吨，同比增加5%；②金：矿产金产量65 吨，同比增加20%，主要增量来自：新并购的加纳阿基姆金矿（交割后5 个月贡献产量3.2 吨）、新投 产的新疆萨瓦亚尔顿金矿，以及处理量提升的山西义兴寨金矿、贵州水银洞金矿、塞尔维亚博尔铜金 矿；③锌：矿产锌产量27 万吨，同比下降12%。④锂：碳酸锂产量1.1 万吨。仅三季度来看①铜：矿产 铜产量26 万吨，环比下降6 %，主要是受刚果（金）卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿淹井事件影响，公司正与股东 方积极推进卡库拉矿段东区的复产工作；②金： 矿产金产量24 吨，环比增加7%；③锌：矿产锌产量9 ...

工业金属 紫金矿业（601899.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 23 日 1、《扩产稳步推进，盈利弹性可期》 2025-04-01 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报。报告期内，2025 年前三个季度公司实现营业收入 2542 亿元，同比+10.3%；实现归母净利润 378.64 亿元，同比+55.4%；实现扣非后 归母净利润 341.27 亿元，同比+43.7%。单季度来看，25Q3 实现营业收入 864.89 亿 元，同比+8.14%，环比-2.58%；实现归母净利润 146 亿元，同比+57%，环比+11%。 报告期内，主营产品量价齐增，扩产稳步推进，成本相对可控 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：陈凯丽 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 293,403 ...

2025年，全球黄金市场迎来史诗级行情，国际金价一路狂飙，涨幅突破50%，不断刷新历史纪录。在这股席卷全球的"金色风暴"中，处于产业链源头的黄金 矿业公司成为直接的受益者。它们交出的三季度成绩单，不仅是市场情绪的"晴雨表"，更是检验其成色的"试金石"。 近日，国内黄金矿业上市公司紫金矿业（601899）（601899.SH）与招金黄金（000506.SZ），相继发布了2025年第三季度报告。财报显示，两家公司业绩均 呈现爆发式增长，归属上市公司股东的净利润同比增幅分别高达57.14%和206.58%。然而，在这份亮眼的成绩单背后，除了金价上涨的普遍红利，更隐藏着 两家公司截然不同的增长路径与战略逻辑，揭示出黄金概念股在风口之上的真实"含金量"。 招金黄金三季度净利润同比超206% 相较于紫金矿业的庞大体量，招金黄金展现出更高的业绩弹性。公司2025年第三季度报告显示，前三季度实现营业收入约3.4亿元，同比增长119.51%；归属 于上市公司股东的净利润8216万元，同比增幅达191.20%。其中，第三季度单季净利润3746万元，同比增长206.58%。 招金黄金的业绩增长主要源于子公司斐济瓦图科拉金矿的产销提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's copper production has decreased due to the impact of the Kamoto Copper Mine, while gold production has steadily increased [1] Group 1: Production and Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Zijin Mining achieved copper production of 263,100 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.81% [1] - The company has seen significant capital operation results, with its subsidiary Zijin Gold International successfully listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 30, raising HKD 28.7 billion through the issuance of 401 million shares at HKD 71.59 per share [1] - This IPO set records as the largest in the global gold mining industry, the largest for a Chinese mining company overseas, and the second largest globally in 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment and Revenue Forecast - The IPO attracted 26 top global institutions as cornerstone investors, who subscribed for USD 1.6 billion, accounting for 50% of the base offering [1] - Due to the increase in gold and copper prices in Q3, the company has raised its profit forecast, projecting revenues of CNY 352.683 billion, CNY 387.977 billion, and CNY 406.642 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of CNY 53.441 billion, CNY 63.285 billion, and CNY 71.034 billion respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 14.9, 12.6, and 11.2 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1]

华鑫证券研报指出，紫金矿业铜产量受卡莫拉铜矿影响有所下降，矿山金产量稳步提升。2025Q3公司 实现矿产铜26.31万吨，同比-2.89%，环比-5.81%。公司资本运作成果显著，子公司紫金黄金国际于9月 30日成功在香港联交所主板上市，以71.59港元/股发行4.01亿股，募资287亿港元，创下全球黄金开采行 业最大IPO、中国矿业企业境外最大IPO及2025年全球第二大IPO纪录。此次发行获26家全球顶级机构作 为基石投资者认购16亿美元（占基础发行50%）。由于Q3金价铜价有不同程度上涨，上调盈利预测， 预测公司2025-2027年营业收入分别为3526.83、3879.77、4066.42亿元，归母净利润分别为534.41、 632.85、710.34亿元，当前股价对应PE分别为14.9、12.6、11.2倍。维持"买入"投资评级。 ...

紫金期内金矿产量为23.8吨，按季及同比分别升7%及26%，今年首三季累计金矿产量同比升20%。该行 指，由于集团近期完成收购哈萨克斯坦Raygorodok金矿，预计全年金矿产量可超出85吨的指引，最新料 达约89吨。至于铜矿产量，管理层将全年指引由115万吨下调至110万吨，而2024年为107万吨。不过该 行料对盈利的影响有限，因铜价上升可抵消产量下跌。 富瑞发布研报称，紫金矿业（601899）(02899)第三季税后净利润为146亿元人民币，按季及同比分别升 11%及57%，略好过该行预期;经常性税后净利润为125亿元人民币，按季及同比分别升6%及50%，符合 该行预期。该行将紫金H股目标价由29.6港元升至38.1港元，A股(601899.SH)目标价由27.3元升至35.2元 人民币，均予"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研报称，紫金矿业(02899)第三季税后净利润为146亿元人民币，按季及同 比分别升11%及57%，略好过该行预期;经常性税后净利润为125亿元人民币，按季及同比分别升6%及 50%，符合该行预期。该行将紫金H股目标价由29.6港元升至38.1港元，A股(601899.SH)目标价由27.3元 升至35.2元人民币，均予"买入"评级。 紫金期内金矿产量为23.8吨，按季及同比分别升7%及26%，今年首三季累计金矿产量同比升20%。该行 指，由于集团近期完成收购哈萨克斯坦Raygorodok金矿，预计全年金矿产量可超出85吨的指引，最新料 达约89吨。至于铜矿产量，管理层将全年指引由115万吨下调至110万吨，而2024年为107万吨。不过该 行料对盈利的影响有限，因铜价上升可抵消产量下跌。 ...

据大华继显的看涨者称，受铜价中期前景乐观的支撑，紫金矿业的盈利势头可能会持续。这种盈利势头 或将支持该股的价值进一步重估。大华继显分析师指出，由于一处矿井发生水灾，这家中国矿商下调了 其2025年集团铜产量预测。不过，该公司表示，全球矿山生产频繁受到严重干扰可能使供应保持紧俏， 并支撑长期价格。这些分析师补充说，在强劲的黄金和铜基本面支撑下，紫金矿业强劲的九个月业绩也 再次证实了其利润可见度。大华继显将该矿商H股目标价从29.70港元上调至37.80港元，并维持买入评 级。 ...