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有色金属2026年度策略 | 投研报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 03:02
来源:中国能源网 能源金属:海外供给端减产信息频现,整个行业减产或停产的信号还会继续出现。从碳酸锂行业的整体 发展节奏看,产能深度整合已经开始,锂价触底回升。建议关注赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、华友钴业。 华安证券近日发布有色金属研究报告:贵金属:全球地缘政治冲突不断推动避险情绪升级,人民银行持 续购入黄金,美联储仍在降息通道,金价具备支撑。能源金属:海外供给端减产信息频现,整个行业减 产或停产的信号还会继续出现。从碳酸锂行业的整体发展节奏看,产能深度整合已经开始,锂价触底回 升。 钨:中国收紧钨供应,市场延续缩量上行。相关公司中钨高新、厦门钨业。 以下为研究报告摘要: 风险提示:宏观经济变动;下游需求不及预期;海外经营风险;矿山安全及环保风险等。(华安证券 许 勇其) 核心观点 贵金属:全球地缘政治冲突不断推动避险情绪升级,人民银行持续购入黄金,美联储仍在降息通道,金 价具备支撑。建议关注紫金矿业、山东黄金。 铜:原料端紧缺,铜价易涨难跌,建议关注紫金矿业、铜陵有色。 铝:电解铝供给限制,新能源需求贡献增量,供弱需强持续演绎;利润端,2025年氧化铝产能陆续释 放,氧化铝价格持续下行,利润有望修复。建议关注神火股份 ...
黄金股全线走低 BOCM指数权重即将再平衡 小摩称金银面临巨量技术性抛压
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 17:51
黄金股全线走低,截至发稿,紫金黄金国际(02259)跌5.05%,报150.5港元;紫金矿业(601899) (02899)跌3.13%,报33.38港元;潼关黄金(00340)跌3.11%,报2.8港元;山东黄金(600547)(01787)跌 2.85%,报33.46港元。 消息面上,摩根大通最新研究报告显示,备受关注的彭博商品指数(BCOM)即将在2026年1月进行年度 权重再平衡。报告预计白银,将遭遇最沉重的抛售,卖盘规模约占其期货市场总未平仓合约的9%。报 告特别强调,今年白银的抛售压力"比去年更为突出",值得投资者高度警惕。黄金抛售规模预计约占其 期货市场总未平仓合约的3%。尽管比例低于白银,但考虑到黄金庞大的市场体量,其绝对抛售金额依 然十分可观。 中邮证券发布研报称,白银波动率较高,且伦敦库存回升,短期的逼仓逻辑可能暂缓。长期来看,去美 元化的进程不会转向,叠加短期降息交易下ETF配置资金的流入,我们依然看好贵金属板块的表现。长 期来看,去美元化的进程不会转向,低位筹码建议无惧波动,坚定持有。 山东黄金 紫金矿业 山东黄金 紫金矿业 紫金黄金国际 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 35.11 - ...
有色金属2026年度策略
Huaan Securities· 2025-12-16 12:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].
紫金矿业(02899.HK):因股票期权获行使发行255万股
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-16 08:44
格隆汇12月16日丨紫金矿业(02899.HK)发布公告,若干董事及高级管理人员已于2023年股票期权激励计 划的第一个行权期内行使其股票期权。有关股份(即255万股股份)于2025年12月15日发行,公司于2025 年12月16日收到相关通知。 ...
紫金矿业(02899)因股票期权获行使而发行255万股
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 08:44
智通财经APP讯,紫金矿业(02899)发布公告,若干董事及高级管理人员已于2023年股票期权激励计划的 第一个行权期内行使其股票期权。255万股股份于2025年12月15日发行。 ...
紫金矿业因股票期权获行使而发行255万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 08:42
紫金矿业(601899)(02899)发布公告,若干董事及高级管理人员已于2023年股票期权激励计划的第一 个行权期内行使其股票期权。255万股股份于2025年12月15日发行。 ...
紫金矿业(02899) - 翌日披露报表
2025-12-16 08:36
FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別: 股票 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 紫金礦業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月16日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司(「香港聯交所」)證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露,必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 普通股 | 股份類別 A | 於香港聯交所上市 | 否 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 601899 | 說明 | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份(不包括庫存股份)變動 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 已發行股份(不包括庫存股份)數 行股份(不包括庫存股 目 份)數目百分比 (註 ...
异动盘点1216 |沪上阿姨涨近6%,拨康视云-B跌超11%;加密货币概念股走低,ServiceNow跌11.54%
贝塔投资智库· 2025-12-16 04:02
Group 1: Market Movements - Baoji Pharmaceutical-B (02659) surged over 3.2% amid its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, closing up 138.82% on its first day, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 20 billion [1] - New Energy (01799) and Xinyi Solar (00968) saw declines of 3.01% and 3.67% respectively, as the photovoltaic sector faced weakness, with rumors of a 30 billion yuan investment for capacity storage by major companies [1] - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) and Li Auto-W (02015) dropped 4.88% and 2.67% respectively, following data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers indicating a month-on-month increase in production and sales [1] Group 2: Company-Specific News - Bolek Vision Cloud-B (02592) experienced a significant drop of nearly 15%, having previously doubled in price over 10 trading days, as it announced a new drug trial application to the FDA [2] - Hu Shang Ayi (02589) rose nearly 6% as Nayuki Tea expanded into the U.S. market, enhancing the international presence of Chinese tea brands [2] - Gold stocks fell sharply, with Zijin Mining (02899) and Shandong Gold (01787) declining by 4.29% and 4.94% respectively, following a report on the Bloomberg Commodity Index's upcoming rebalancing [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Technology - Cryptocurrency ETFs faced significant declines, with notable drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum-related funds, as Bitcoin fell 3.3% from its record high, reflecting market pressures amid weak liquidity [3] - Oracle (ORCL.US) continued its downward trend, dropping 2.66% due to delays in delivering AI data centers for OpenAI, attributed to labor and material shortages [6] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) saw a slight increase of 0.73% after announcing the release of its third-generation language model, aimed at writing and programming tasks [6]
港股异动 黄金股全线走低 BOCM指数权重即将再平衡 小摩称金银面临巨量技术性抛压
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-16 03:10
智通财经获悉,黄金股全线走低,截至发稿,紫金黄金国际(02259)跌5.05%,报150.5港元;紫金矿业 (02899)跌3.13%,报33.38港元;潼关黄金(00340)跌3.11%,报2.8港元;山东黄金(01787)跌2.85%,报 33.46港元。 消息面上,摩根大通最新研究报告显示,备受关注的彭博商品指数(BCOM)即将在2026年1月进行年度 权重再平衡。报告预计白银,将遭遇最沉重的抛售,卖盘规模约占其期货市场总未平仓合约的9%。报 告特别强调,今年白银的抛售压力"比去年更为突出",值得投资者高度警惕。黄金抛售规模预计约占其 期货市场总未平仓合约的3%。尽管比例低于白银,但考虑到黄金庞大的市场体量,其绝对抛售金额依 然十分可观。 中邮证券发布研报称,白银波动率较高,且伦敦库存回升,短期的逼仓逻辑可能暂缓。长期来看,去美 元化的进程不会转向,叠加短期降息交易下ETF配置资金的流入,我们依然看好贵金属板块的表现。长 期来看,去美元化的进程不会转向,低位筹码建议无惧波动,坚定持有。 本文源自:智通财经网 ...
ETF盘中资讯|中国为何会迎来“有色牛市”?有色企业顺势突围!有色龙头ETF(159876)近20日狂揽2亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 02:17
12月16日早盘,市场盘整,A股三大指数悉数飘绿,揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF(159876)随市回调,场内价格现跌1.32%,值得关注的是,该 ETF近20日累计吸金2.03亿元,反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现,积极进场布局! 成份股方面,厦门钨业、洛阳钼业领涨超1%,江西铜业、永兴材料、雅化集团等个股飘红,另一方面,西部超导跌逾4%,楚江新材、华峰铝业、西部黄金 跌超4%,跌幅居前,拖累指数表现。 | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 | 周 | 月 更多 | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 ◎ ② | 09:42 价 0.898 涨跌 -0.012(-1.32%) 均价 0.903 成交量 902 IOPV 0.8973 | 2025/12/16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.923 | | | | | | | | | 國 | 0.921 | 1.1696 | 洋目元 | 实时申购陵回信息 | | | | | K 线图 | | | | | | | | | 0.918 | 0.9396 ...