Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (02899) demonstrates resilient growth in its third-quarter performance, reaffirming a positive stance due to favorable macro and micro conditions for gold and copper prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's overseas business successfully spun off, creating new growth opportunities [1] - The gold segment's profit contribution has increased, solidifying its role as a growth engine [1] Group 2: Price Target and Earnings Forecast - Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecast for Zijin Mining for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 20% [1] - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 28 to HKD 42, maintaining its position as a preferred stock in the industry with a "Buy" rating [1]

摩根大通发表报告指，紫金矿业第三季经营表现反映其具韧性增长轨迹，重申对其正面立场，受惠于在 宏观及微观顺风下金价及铜价具建设性展望；旗下海外业务成功分拆上市，释放新的增长场景；黄金板 块盈利贡献增加，稳固作为盈利增长引擎的地位。 考虑金属价格上升势头及强劲生产基本面，该行上调对紫金2025至27年盈测介乎9%至20%，H股目标价 由28港元上调至42港元，维持行业首选股地位及"增持"评级。 ...

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 10 月 21 日 紫金矿业 (601899) —— 25Q3 业绩再创新高，矿金贡献亮眼 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 29.75 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 32.65/15.00 | | 市净率 | 4.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.68 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 612,491 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,863.89/12,813.21 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.31 | | 资产负债率% | 53.01 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 26,578/20,588 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/5,989 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 10-21 11-21 12-21 01-21 02-21 03-21 04-21 05-2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in international gold prices has significantly catalyzed the profitability and market value of Zijin Mining [1] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's Q3 report shows a 55.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 37.86 billion yuan, with Q3 net profit hitting a record 14.57 billion yuan [2] - The company's gold business has become the primary profit source, contributing 40.4% to the group's gross profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a substantial increase in gold prices compared to copper [2][11] - Full-year profit expectations have been raised to approximately 51 billion yuan by several institutions, indicating a strong performance that could place Zijin Mining among the top 20 A-share listed companies [3][11] Market Dynamics - Despite the rising gold prices, there has been a divergence in stock performance, with Zijin Mining's stock price not following the upward trend of gold prices since the beginning of Q4 [4][18] - The average increase in gold prices was 47% in the first three quarters, while Zijin Mining's stock price rose by 99%, indicating a strong correlation between gold prices and company profitability [18] Production and Sales - The company has seen continuous growth in gold production, exceeding annual targets, with significant contributions from newly acquired and newly operational mines [10] - Sales prices for gold ingots and concentrates reached 746.43 yuan/gram and 685.21 yuan/gram respectively, with a gross margin of 72.8%, reflecting a nearly 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] Price Trends - The price of gold has surged from approximately 2,624 USD/ounce to around 3,858 USD/ounce, marking a 47% increase, while copper prices only rose by 17% during the same period [8] - The fluctuations in gold prices and the performance of copper will be critical variables affecting Zijin Mining's Q4 performance [13]

汇丰环球投资研究将紫金矿业H股目标价从41.80港元上调至43.00港元 。 ...

消息面上，近期，印度尼西亚格拉斯贝格铜矿发生泥石流事故，运营该矿的美国矿业巨头自由港-麦克 莫兰铜金公司宣布，依据合同中的"不可抗力"条款，免除其供货义务。作为产量排名全球第二的铜矿， 格拉斯贝格的供应受限对全球铜市影响巨大。事故发生后，花旗调整了对全球铜矿供应的预测，预计 2025年全球铜矿产量将达2315万吨，同比增长0.1%；2026年将达到2346万吨，同比增长1.3%。这些数 据较此前的预测值有所下调。 宏观方面，近日，在美联储主席鲍威尔暗示本月可能再次降息后，铜价出现反弹。中粮期货发布报告表 示，从近期铜价影响因素看，海外降息预期仍是主导。当前劳动力市场数据依然是影响美国降息预期的 主要因素，但因美国政府停摆导致数据公布推迟，重点关注数据公布后潜在的预期反复。对于铜价来 说，更多需要考量的是降息的本质，只要不出现衰退风险，铜价就难以出现较大跌幅。 铜业股集体上扬，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨4.89%，报14.15港元；五矿资源(01208)涨3.54%， 报6.72港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨3.2%，报32.92港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨 2 ...

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Citigroup has revised its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting a potential interest rate cut this month, copper prices have rebounded, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data release due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' full-year estimate for 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent acquisition of RG Gold Mine, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs forecasts Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) will maintain strong profit growth momentum from 2025 to 2026, achieving an approximate 50% annual compound growth rate, primarily benefiting from rising gold and copper prices as well as increased production [1] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a net profit of 14.6 billion RMB for the third quarter, with earnings per share of 0.548 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [1] - For the first three quarters, the recurring net profit reached 34.7 billion RMB, equivalent to 69% of Goldman Sachs' forecast for the full year 2025 and 73% of market expectations [1] - The recurring performance is generally in line with both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] Price Target Adjustments - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining's H-shares and A-shares, raising the target price for H-shares from 30 HKD to 37.5 HKD and for A-shares from 31 RMB to 37.5 RMB [1] Earnings Forecast Revisions - Based on the global commodities team's revised forecasts for copper and gold prices, along with the impact of the spin-off of Zijin Gold International (02259) and the recent completion of the RG mine acquisition, Zijin Mining's earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 1% to 26% [1]

Core Viewpoint - A total of 80 stocks have shown a continuous improvement in net profit for two consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1] Group 1: Profitability Trends - As of the third quarter of 2025, 80 stocks have reported profitability with both the third and second quarters showing sequential net profit growth [1] - Continuous improvement in net profit suggests that these companies are in a phase of sustained profitability enhancement [1] Group 2: Valuation Levels - Among the 80 stocks with improving performance, 29 have a rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 30 times [1] - Xinhua Insurance has the lowest rolling PE ratio at 7.01 times, while several companies like Zijin Mining, Hanhua Environment, and others have PE ratios ranging from 10 to 20 times [1] Group 3: Capital Inflows - Recently, some low PE ratio stocks with continuous performance improvement have attracted increased investment from financing clients [1] - As of October 20, 2023, seven stocks have seen net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since October, with Zijin Mining leading at a net purchase of 2.349 billion yuan [1]