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【策略报告】2026年汽车行业总投资策略:坚定“破旧立新”
未经许可,不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 2026年汽车行业总投资策略:如何【破旧立新】? 我们认为2026年汽车或应该参考2011年或2018年(底线思维),汽车行业又重新站到了一个新 的十字路口。电动化行业红利接近尾声,智能化行业红利正在努力衔接,商用车/两轮车等子 板块成为好的投资补充领域。我们选择两条思路:1)寻找穿越周期α品种!2)拥抱下一轮产 业趋势(智能化+机器人/AIDC)。 2026年汽车板块最新景气度预测: 1)乘用车板块: 26年行业受新能源购置税征收5%影响,内需整体预期-3.5%。2026年总内需 销量2200万辆(同比-3.5%),新能源内需销量1320万辆,同比+6.4%;2026年总外需销量641万 辆(同比+12.0%),新能源外需352万辆(同比+43.9%)。 2)重卡板块: 中性预测下,2026 年批发销量116万辆(同比+1.5%),其中内需销量77万辆(同比-5.5%),外需销量39-40万辆 (同比+18.8%)。 3)客车板块: 预计26年内外需共振延续,其中出口增速有望维持30%以 上,新能源出口增速预计更快。2026年内需销量8.10万辆,同比+3%,出口7. ...
2026年汽车行业总投资策略:坚定“破旧立新”
Soochow Securities· 2025-12-19 08:14
证券研究报告 2026年汽车行业总投资策略: ——坚定"破旧立新" 证券分析师 :黄细里 执业证书编号:S0600520010001 联系邮箱:huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话:021-60199793 2025年12月19日 核心结论 2 ◼ 2026年汽车行业总投资策略:如何【破旧立新】?我们认为2026年汽车或应该参考2011年或2018年(底线 思维),汽车行业又重新站到了一个新的十字路口。电动化行业红利接近尾声,智能化行业红利正在努力衔接, 商用车/两轮车等子板块成为好的投资补充领域。我们选择两条思路:1)寻找穿越周期α品种!2)拥抱下一轮 产业趋势(智能化+机器人/AIDC)。 ◼ 2026年汽车板块最新景气度预测:1)乘用车板块:26年行业受新能源购置税征收5%影响,内需整体预期- 3.5%。2026年总内需销量2200万辆(同比-3.5%),新能源内需销量1320万辆,同比+6.4%;2026年总外需 销量641万辆(同比+12.0%),新能源外需352万辆(同比+43.9%)。2)重卡板块:中性预测下,2026年 批发销量116万辆(同比+1.5%),其中内需销量77万辆(同 ...
11月新能源汽车表现亮眼 | 投研报告
Core Insights - November automotive sales reached 3.429 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Cumulative sales from January to November totaled 31.127 million units, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year growth [1][2] - The comprehensive inventory coefficient for automotive dealers in November was 1.6, up 41.4% year-on-year and 34.2% month-on-month. The inventory warning index stood at 55.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year and 3 percentage points month-on-month [2] Sales Performance - In November, the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 1.823 million units, marking a 20.6% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, NEV sales totaled 14.78 million units, up 31.2% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 47.5% [2] Investment Strategy - The automotive sector should focus on undervalued leading companies in vehicle manufacturing and parts due to performance improvements. Key areas of interest include: - Domestic car manufacturers with first-mover advantages in the NEV sector, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Geely, and Li Auto [3] - Stable performance low-valuation leading parts manufacturers like Huayu Automotive and Fuyao Glass [3] - Core players in the electrification and intelligentization sectors, including Desay SV, Ruikeda, Kobot, and Bertley [3] - Opportunities arising from domestic circulation and local replacements, such as Lingdian Electric Control, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Xingyu Co., and Shangsheng Electronics [3] - Strong vehicle manufacturers driving demand for core components, including Top Group, Wencan Co., and Xusheng Group [3] Market Overview - The automotive sector experienced a weekly change of 0.16%, ranking 9th among 31 sectors. The automotive industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the week [5] - The weekly performance of major indices was as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.34%, CSI 300 -0.08%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.84%, and ChiNext Index 2.74% [5] - In sub-sectors, the weekly performance was: automotive services -5.23%, automotive parts 0.11%, passenger vehicles 0.23%, commercial vehicles 0.25%, and motorcycles and others 1.70% [5] Top Performing Stocks - The top five performing stocks in the automotive sector for the week were: Chaojie Co., Huamao Technology, Yueling Co., Huapei Power, and Zhenghe Industrial [6] Underperforming Stocks - The bottom five performing stocks in the automotive sector for the week were: Xiamen Xinda, Rongtai Co., Longji Machinery, Kailong High-Tech, and Disengli [7]
福耀玻璃20251217
2025-12-17 15:50
福耀玻璃 20251217 摘要 福耀玻璃预计 2026 年北美市场将在较低基数上实现复苏性增长,同时 受益于欧洲和美国市场份额的持续增长,有助于对冲国内潜在下滑风险, 总体运营预期稳定,收入将保持稳定增长。 2025 年第四季度,福耀玻璃原有产能利用率预计提升约两个百分点至 88%左右,为近五年来单季度最高水平,主要由于订单饱满,新建产能 尚未完全释放。 美国电价上涨对福耀玻璃成本端有一定影响,电价占美国工厂生产成本 约 4%,但公司正在评估后续电价走势,并考虑与客户沟通成本转移, 总体而言,即使美国电价持续上涨,对整体盈利能力影响有限。 预计 2026 年福耀玻璃的 ASP 复合增长率将保持在 6-7%左右,中国市 场调光玻璃产品的大幅应用和上量,欧洲市场新车型搭载高附加值产品 进入量产交付阶段,将推动 ASP 进一步加速增长。 由于关税问题,福耀玻璃预计明年美国市场涨价是大概率事件,预计涨 幅在 6-7 个百分点,公司自身承担的关税影响不大。 Q&A 对于 2026 年国内及全球汽车玻璃行业的销量增速有何展望? 2026 年,全球汽车玻璃行业预计将有 2-3%的增量。具体来看,国内市场在出 口保持增长的 ...
智通AH统计|12月17日
智通财经网· 2025-12-17 08:20
Group 1 - The article highlights the top three and bottom three AH premium rates for various companies, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at 881.82% and Ningde Times (03750) at -10.13% [1] - The top three companies with the highest deviation values are Red Star Macalline (01528) at 23.82%, Fudan Zhangjiang (01349) at 18.61%, and China People's Insurance Group (01339) at 15.55% [1] - The bottom three companies with the lowest deviation values include Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) at -30.48%, GAC Group (02238) at -18.85%, and First Tractor Company (00038) at -17.07% [1] Group 2 - The top ten AH stocks by premium rate include companies like Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 277.56% and Hongye Futures (03678) at 267.67% [1] - The bottom ten AH stocks by premium rate feature companies such as China Merchants Bank (03968) at 0.14% and Hengrui Medicine (01276) at 1.30% [1] - The article provides detailed tables showing the premium rates and deviation values for both top and bottom AH stocks, indicating significant variations in market performance [2]
港股异动 光伏股再度走弱 光伏协会确认收储平台成立 光伏玻璃价格仍然承压
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-16 04:04
消息面上,光伏协会确认了"光和谦成"公司为产能收储平台。此外有传言称,后续各大光伏企业将持续 注资约300亿元开启产能收储工作。信达期货指出,经历多了数月的市场炒作后,平台终于落地,金额 可能与最开始的700亿元有较大差距,但是也标志着光伏反内卷工作开始进入到实质性环节。 东证期货则指出,上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率跌幅进一步扩大,目前毛利率约为-13.56%。当前天然气陆 续开始执行冬气价,成本有所上涨,而光伏玻璃价格继续下行,行业亏损程度不断加大。整体来看,由 于下游订单明显不足,行业供需差较大,短期光伏玻璃价格仍有下行压力。 本文源自:智通财经网 智通财经获悉,光伏股再度走弱,截至发稿,新特能源(01799)跌3.96%,报7.03港元;信义光能(00968) 跌3.33%,报2.9港元;福莱特玻璃(06865)跌2.64%,报9.57港元;福耀玻璃(03606)跌1.73%,报65.2港 元。 ...
异动盘点1216 |沪上阿姨涨近6%,拨康视云-B跌超11%;加密货币概念股走低,ServiceNow跌11.54%
贝塔投资智库· 2025-12-16 04:02
Group 1: Market Movements - Baoji Pharmaceutical-B (02659) surged over 3.2% amid its debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, closing up 138.82% on its first day, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 20 billion [1] - New Energy (01799) and Xinyi Solar (00968) saw declines of 3.01% and 3.67% respectively, as the photovoltaic sector faced weakness, with rumors of a 30 billion yuan investment for capacity storage by major companies [1] - Xpeng Motors-W (09868) and Li Auto-W (02015) dropped 4.88% and 2.67% respectively, following data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers indicating a month-on-month increase in production and sales [1] Group 2: Company-Specific News - Bolek Vision Cloud-B (02592) experienced a significant drop of nearly 15%, having previously doubled in price over 10 trading days, as it announced a new drug trial application to the FDA [2] - Hu Shang Ayi (02589) rose nearly 6% as Nayuki Tea expanded into the U.S. market, enhancing the international presence of Chinese tea brands [2] - Gold stocks fell sharply, with Zijin Mining (02899) and Shandong Gold (01787) declining by 4.29% and 4.94% respectively, following a report on the Bloomberg Commodity Index's upcoming rebalancing [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Technology - Cryptocurrency ETFs faced significant declines, with notable drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum-related funds, as Bitcoin fell 3.3% from its record high, reflecting market pressures amid weak liquidity [3] - Oracle (ORCL.US) continued its downward trend, dropping 2.66% due to delays in delivering AI data centers for OpenAI, attributed to labor and material shortages [6] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) saw a slight increase of 0.73% after announcing the release of its third-generation language model, aimed at writing and programming tasks [6]
港股光伏股再度走弱,新特能源跌近4%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-16 03:08
每经AI快讯,港股光伏股再度走弱,截至发稿,新特能源(01799.HK)跌3.96%,报7.03港元;信义光能 (00968.HK)跌3.33%,报2.9港元;福莱特玻璃(06865.HK)跌2.64%,报9.57港元;福耀玻璃(03606.HK)跌 1.73%,报65.2港元。 ...
港股异动 | 光伏股再度走弱 光伏协会确认收储平台成立 光伏玻璃价格仍然承压
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 02:53
智通财经APP获悉,光伏股再度走弱,截至发稿,新特能源(01799)跌3.96%,报7.03港元;信义光能 (00968)跌3.33%,报2.9港元;福莱特玻璃(06865)跌2.64%,报9.57港元;福耀玻璃(03606)跌1.73%,报 65.2港元。 消息面上,光伏协会确认了"光和谦成"公司为产能收储平台。此外有传言称,后续各大光伏企业将持续 注资约300亿元开启产能收储工作。信达期货指出,经历多了数月的市场炒作后,平台终于落地,金额 可能与最开始的700亿元有较大差距,但是也标志着光伏反内卷工作开始进入到实质性环节。 东证期货则指出,上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率跌幅进一步扩大,目前毛利率约为-13.56%。当前天然气陆 续开始执行冬气价,成本有所上涨,而光伏玻璃价格继续下行,行业亏损程度不断加大。整体来看,由 于下游订单明显不足,行业供需差较大,短期光伏玻璃价格仍有下行压力。 ...
智通AH统计|12月15日
智通财经网· 2025-12-15 08:20
Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH share premium rates as of December 15, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at a premium of 900.00% and CATL (03750) at the bottom with a premium of -11.03% [1][2][3] Premium Rate Rankings - The top three AH stocks by premium rate are: - Northeast Electric (00042) with a premium of 900.00% and a deviation value of 26.91% [1][2] - Beijing Capital Machinery (00187) with a premium of 266.67% and a deviation value of 27.25% [1][2] - Hongye Futures (03678) with a premium of 265.78% and a deviation value of -3.92% [1][2] - The bottom three AH stocks by premium rate are: - CATL (03750) with a premium of -11.03% and a deviation value of -2.28% [1][3] - China Merchants Bank (03968) with a premium of -0.77% and a deviation value of -0.05% [1][3] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) with a premium of 1.62% and a deviation value of -1.73% [1][3] Deviation Value Rankings - The top three AH stocks by deviation value are: - Beijing Capital Machinery (00187) with a deviation value of 27.25% [1][4] - Northeast Electric (00042) with a deviation value of 26.91% [1][4] - Hongxing Meikailong (01528) with a deviation value of 18.57% [1][4] - The bottom three AH stocks by deviation value are: - GAC Group (02238) with a deviation value of -19.95% [1][5] - First Tractor Company (00038) with a deviation value of -16.78% [1][5] - Longyuan Power (00916) with a deviation value of -13.18% [1][5]