格隆汇12月22日｜东方证券研报指出，中国神华资源整合推进，资产注入并未拖累EPS。收购完成后， 公司煤炭可采储量由174.5亿吨提升至345.0亿吨，增长97.7%，煤炭产量将由3.27亿吨提升至5.12亿吨， 增长56.6%，可采年限由53年提升至67年。收购后EPS并未下降，高比例分红有望持续。收购后公司资 产负债率有所增长，但仍处于健康水平。截至2025年7月31日，收购完成后公司资产负债率将由25.1% 提升至43.6%。不考虑本次资产重组，预测公司2025-2027年每股收益分别为2.66、2.83、2.92元，根据 DDM估值模型，给予公司目标价47.58元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

相关标的： 国内半导体设备企业中微公司、京仪装备、微导纳米、拓荆科技、北方华创等； 布局端侧AI存储方案的兆易创新、北京君正等； 受益存储技术迭代的澜起科技、联芸科技等； 近日，东方证券发布研报称，AI推理需求有望带动存储芯片需求高速成长。部分投资者对于AI对存储 芯片需求的带动幅度仍有低估。 研报中称，未来AI应用的推理需求将带动活跃数据存储需求大幅提升，进而推动存储芯片需求高速成 长。AI大模型推理过程中需要通过高频次地访问数据，来实现高质量内容生成。例如，检索增强生成 (RAG)技术允许LLM从知识库提取相关信息，而针对RAG数据库的近似性查询属于极为密集的随机读操 作。此外，大语言模型推理过程中需要使用KV缓存来加速推理过程。整体来看，AI推理过程将使得存 储结构发生较大变化，有望提升对活跃数据存储的需求。而当前数据中心存储中占据主要地位的机械硬 盘难以满足高速读取活跃数据的需求，SSD等有望在AI推理中持续扩大应用。未来随着AI应用更加广 泛，AI推理需求持续提升，有望带动存储芯片需求持续高速成长。 存储供不应求持续，国内两存扩产迎来历史性机遇。当前，国内两大存储芯片厂商合肥长鑫/长江存储 在DRA ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance and brokerage sectors, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for both industries, indicating expected outperformance compared to the overall market [2][66]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing a fundamental and valuation mismatch, with a recommendation to focus on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics [2][5]. - The insurance sector is poised for a systematic value reassessment, with significant regulatory changes expected to enhance asset-liability management practices [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,568.18 with a slight decline of -0.28% over the week, while the non-bank index rose by 2.90% [5]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 1.01%, 7.03%, and 1.39% respectively [5]. Key Data in Non-Banking Sector - As of December 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,033.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 15.23% compared to the previous month [41]. - The margin trading balance reached 24,993.66 billion yuan, an increase of 34.0% from the end of 2024 [15]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, marking a significant consolidation trend in the brokerage industry [2][29]. - The brokerage index's price-to-book ratio (PB) is currently at 1.38, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2]. Insurance Sector Insights - The new asset-liability management regulations are expected to significantly impact the insurance industry, emphasizing the need for effective risk management and alignment of assets and liabilities [2][17]. - The insurance sector index increased by 7.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.30 percentage points [2]. Investment Recommendations - For the brokerage sector, the report recommends focusing on top-tier firms such as Guotai Junan, GF Securities, and CITIC Securities, which are expected to benefit from improved competitive conditions [2]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance are highlighted for their potential in the ongoing value reassessment [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent activities in the secondary market for Sci-Tech bonds indicate a significant innovation in trading mechanisms, enhancing liquidity and broadening financing channels for technology enterprises [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Trading Innovations - GF Securities and Industrial Bank executed the first bond lending transaction for Sci-Tech bonds on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, totaling 40 million yuan [2]. - CITIC Securities and Everbright Bank successfully completed a repurchase transaction using "National Development Floating Rate Sci-Tech Bonds" as collateral, amounting to 50 million yuan [4]. - Industrial Bank and Dongfang Securities conducted the first buyout repurchase transaction in the interbank market using "National Development Sci-Tech Bonds" as collateral, with a transaction value of 210 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The introduction of these transactions is expected to enrich the variety of Sci-Tech bond trading, increase market activity, and improve the functionality of the secondary market [2][3][4]. - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have issued guidelines to support the issuance of Sci-Tech bonds, encouraging market participants to finance technology innovation and industrial upgrades [2]. - The successful execution of these transactions is seen as a practical example that enhances the liquidity of Sci-Tech bonds and attracts more market participants [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Responses - GF Securities aims to leverage its expertise in bond trading to enhance the liquidity and financing capabilities of Sci-Tech bonds, thereby attracting more investors [3]. - CITIC Securities plans to continue focusing on the construction of a trading ecosystem to lower financing costs for Sci-Tech enterprises [4]. - Industrial Bank is committed to expanding the asset utilization range for investors and reducing financing costs for technology enterprises through innovative trading mechanisms [5].

东方证券研究所宏观与战略团队表示，在这个全球充满不确定性的时代，中国政策的稳定 性、连续性、务实针对性和规划前瞻性是一条突出的比较优势，这正在成为更多全球投资者 的共识。展望明年，由科技突破、风险下降等叙事力量推动的资金再配置预计仍将延续，关 注"十五五"时期政策新理念推动经济走向再平衡。海外宏观环境将继续有利于中国资产表 现，美国政策宽松未完待续，全球"政策偏松 + 经济不差"的组合为风险资产提供温和"顺 风"。 同时，本次策略会精心设置了十二大分会场，聚焦不同投资主线，覆盖了科技、人工智能、 新能源、消费、多元资产配置等热点话题，深度探讨了行业前沿技术及投资机遇，展现了东 方研究团队的专业锐度。 东方证券表示，未来将继续搭建高质量的思想交流平台，汇聚智慧，致力于"金融报国、金 融为民"，持续服务国家战略和实体经济，助力新质生产力和现代化产业体系发展壮大。 12 月 18 日，东方证券 2026 年度投资策略会在上海拉开帷幕。本次策略会以"潮涌东方 满江红"为主题，汇聚了专业学者、行业专家同东方证券核心研究团队共同擘画新一年的投 资蓝图，为千余名各界机构投资者带来了一场思想与远见的盛宴。 东方证券党委副书记 ...

Group 1 - The expected low interest rate environment is changing, impacting investor behavior, leading to a slowdown in both entity financing and financial expansion [6] - Financial institutions such as wealth management and insurance are altering their asset allocation strategies, influenced by changes in tax policies and new fund regulations [6] - The mainstream investment strategy in the bond market is shifting from "trading" to "coupon collection," with bond prices expected to experience sideways fluctuations and slight weakening [6] Group 2 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a review where the central bank shifted from tightening to loosening, causing fluctuations in the bond market [9] - The first quarter saw the central bank pause government bond purchases, emphasizing the need to guide financial institutions to explore effective credit demand, which raised funding rates [9] - The second quarter faced uncertainties due to tariff issues, leading to a decline in export expectations and a subsequent rise in bond prices as the central bank adopted a more accommodative stance [9] Group 3 - As of November 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds reached the highest level in five years, with local government bonds balancing out under financing constraints [14] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds approached 13 trillion yuan, with a net inflow exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust primary supply [16] - The financing increment of credit bonds is primarily driven by industrial entities, with public utilities and non-bank financial sectors frequently issuing bonds [16] Group 4 - The credit spread has been narrowing, with the strategy of holding credit bonds to earn coupons being favored in 2025 [17] - The yield on non-financial bonds has generally dropped below 2%, making it challenging to find high-yield bonds above 2.2% [17] - The overall yield of credit bonds is fluctuating at low levels, with a widening term spread, making it difficult to find high-yield targets in the industrial bond sector [20] Group 5 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline in issuance and a decrease in the number of outstanding bonds, leading to a shrinking market size [25][26] - The performance of the convertible bond market improved in 2025, with the index achieving a 17.12% increase, indicating strong demand despite a shrinking supply [34] Group 6 - The changing expectations regarding low interest rates are leading to a decrease in banks' enthusiasm for participating in bond investments [50] - In 2025, banks showed a consistent lack of interest in the bond market, with funds acting independently [54] - The reduction in credit and the increasing reliance on certificates of deposit by large banks are contributing to the decreased participation in the bond market [56]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is expected to face challenges in performance despite potential valuation recovery by the end of 2025, with the core issue being performance itself [1] Group 1: Structural Changes and Performance Recovery - The transition in economic structure and the recovery of household balance sheets may lead to 2026 being a turning point for demand, with both new and traditional consumption experiencing performance improvements [2] - Traditional consumption is anticipated to see a bottom reversal, with the liquor industry serving as a key indicator, particularly in the first half of 2026 [3] Group 2: Traditional Consumption Insights - The liquor sector is expected to undergo significant performance adjustments in early 2026, which will signal a bottoming out for the food and beverage industry [3] - Other segments such as frozen foods, seasonings, and dairy products are positioned well with good inventory levels and low performance baselines, allowing for potential performance rebounds [3] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The structural characteristics of consumption in China are expected to persist, driven by innovation in new categories, channels, and markets, which will continue to support performance releases in consumer goods [4]

12月18日，东方证券2026年度投资策略会在上海举行。本次策略会以"潮涌东方满江红"为主题，汇聚专 业学者、行业专家同东方证券核心研究团队，为千余名机构投资者带来一场思想与远见的盛宴。 东方证券党委副书记、副总裁（主持工作）卢大印在致辞中表示，2025年，我国资本市场迎来稳健向好 的重大机遇，本次大会主题"潮涌东方满江红"，既是对波澜壮阔一年的深情礼赞，也寄托了大家对国 家、对市场前景朴素、务实的美好期待。 卢大印进一步表示，美好期待的背后，有三个层面的坚实客观基础：一是全球秩序正在经历深刻调整， 更加凸显我国社会安全稳定、经济稳健发展的独特价值，也为我国资本市场的投资与研究创造了更为有 利的环境；二是中国资本市场的制度建设进入收获期，"金融强国"首次被写入五年规划建议，体现了中 国金融业发展目标从大到强的深刻跃迁，为市场上行提供了前所未有的制度土壤；三是全社会对国家的 信心不断提升，这种提升不仅源于中国在纷繁复杂世界里逐渐赢得战略主动，还来源于经济转型、产业 升级和科技突破给民众带来的底气和信心，这种底气和信心，还将在未来继续支撑中国资产的价值。 东方证券研究所所长黄燕铭在本次策略会上表示，2026年股票 ...

东方证券研究所所长黄燕铭在本次策略会上表示，2026年股票市场可以简单总结为"横盘震荡，略有走 强"，整个市场将呈现横盘震荡逐级抬升的过程，这个过程需要较长时间逐步完成，大家不能有一蹴而 就、"快牛""疯牛"的想法。对于2026年投资机会，他认为，前期在中盘蓝筹股，后期还是在科技创新 股。 东方证券研究所宏观与战略团队表示，在这个全球充满不确定性的时代，中国政策的稳定性、连续性、 务实针对性和规划前瞻性是突出的比较优势，这正在成为更多全球投资者的共识。展望明年，由科技突 破、风险下降等叙事力量推动的资金再配置预计仍将延续，关注"十五五"时期政策新理念推动经济走向 再平衡。海外宏观环境将继续有利于中国资产表现，美国政策宽松未完待续，全球"政策偏松+经济不 差"的组合为风险资产提供温和"顺风"。 东方证券本次策略会精心设置了十二大分会场，聚焦不同投资主线，覆盖了科技、人工智能、新能源、 消费、多元资产配置等热点话题，深度探讨了行业前沿技术及投资机遇，展现了东方研究团队的专业锐 度。 12月18日，东方证券2026年度投资策略会在上海举行。本次策略会以"潮涌东方满江红"为主题，汇聚专 业学者、行业专家同东方证券核心 ...

东方证券研究所宏观与战略团队表示，在这个全球充满不确定性的时代，中国政策的稳定性、连续性、 务实针对性和规划前瞻性是一条突出的比较优势，这正在成为更多全球投资者的共识。展望明年，由科 技突破、风险下降等叙事力量推动的资金再配置预计仍将延续，关注"十五五"时期政策新理念推动经济 走向再平衡。海外宏观环境将继续有利于中国资产表现，美国政策宽松未完待续，全球"政策偏松+经 济不差"的组合为风险资产提供温和"顺风"。 人民财讯12月18日电，12月18日，东方证券2026年度投资策略会在上海拉开帷幕。东方证券研究所所长 黄燕铭在大会上表示，2026年股票市场可以简单总结为"横盘震荡，略有走强"，整个市场呈现横盘震荡 逐级抬升的过程，这个过程需要较长时间逐步完成，大家不能有一蹴而就、快牛疯牛的预期。支撑A股 略微走强的核心驱动因素在于大家对国家治理预期不断上升。2026年投资机会，前期在中盘蓝筹，后期 还是在科技创新。 ...