Core Insights - The banking sector has shown weak relative and absolute returns recently, primarily due to market funds shifting towards high-beta and small-cap stocks, leading to a diversion of funds from low-beta banking stocks [18] - The report suggests that the banking sector is likely to experience further internal differentiation in 2026, with larger banks and wealth management banks expected to outperform [18] - Core stock recommendations include Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, Qingdao Bank, and large state-owned banks [18] Section Summaries 1. Current Observation: A-shares in Banking Decline, H-shares Outperform - During the observation period from January 12 to January 16, 2026, the banking sector (CITIC first-level industry) declined by 2.6%, ranking 25th among all industries and underperforming the Wind All A index [16] - The performance of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with declines of -2.16%, -3.33%, -1.92%, and -2.24% respectively [16] - H-shares of banks increased by 2.4%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, while A-share banks showed mixed results [16] 2. Investment Recommendations: Beta Elasticity Dominates Recent Sector Performance - The report indicates that the recent downturn in the banking sector has solidified valuations, with limited further downside expected [18] - The anticipated trends include a shift towards non-bank financial services, wealth management, and disintermediation, with large banks expected to gain an advantage [18] 3. Sector Performance: Banking Sector Decline, Weekly Turnover Rate Increases - The banking sector's weekly turnover rate increased to 1.61%, ranking last among 30 CITIC first-level industries [42] - As of January 16, 2026, the banking sector's latest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 6.89x, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 0.67x, indicating valuations at historical average levels [42] 4. Individual Stock Performance: A-share Banks Overall Decline, City Commercial Banks Relatively Stable - Among A-share banks, Ningbo Bank saw a rise of 4.09%, while Beijing Bank, Huaxia Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank experienced declines of 4.90%, 4.73%, and 4.33% respectively [16] - In H-shares, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank increased by 3.59% and 3.16%, while China Everbright Bank and Chongqing Bank saw declines of 6.14% and 3.10% [16] 5. Convertible Bond Performance: Average Price Increase - The average price of banking convertible bonds rose by 0.06%, underperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 1.02 percentage points [17] - The top-performing convertible bonds included Chongqing Bank's convertible bond (+0.58%) and Industrial Bank's convertible bond (+0.18%) [17] 6. Profit Forecast Tracking: 2025 Profit Growth Expectations Remain Stable - For the current period, three banks (China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Hangzhou Bank) showed changes in the consensus profit growth expectations for 2025 [17] - The net profit growth and revenue growth expectations for A-share banks in 2025 adjusted slightly downwards by -0.08 percentage points and -0.03 percentage points respectively [17]

Group 1: Hong Kong IPO Market - The recent performance of Hong Kong IPOs has been mixed, with some companies like Tianri, MINI, Ruibo, and Birun being sold a day early, leading to missed opportunities for investors [1] - The analyst highlights the significant difference in subscription rates between Naxinwei (25 times) and Zhuoyue Ruixin (4813 times), suggesting that Naxinwei may offer better profitability despite lower demand [1] - The current batch of IPOs is limited, with Dragon Flag Technology being the only notable option, but it is expected to be difficult to acquire shares due to a discount greater than 40% [1] Group 2: Ctrip's Market Position and Regulatory Challenges - Ctrip is recognized as a leader in the online travel market, with a 60% growth in international business last year and a dominant share in the domestic online travel agency market [4] - The company is currently under investigation for monopolistic practices, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price [4][6] - Despite the regulatory challenges, Ctrip's financial health remains strong, with substantial cash reserves that can absorb potential fines estimated at 4 billion RMB [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The A-share market has shown resilience with a record high in margin financing, indicating strong investor sentiment despite recent declines [3] - The experience from previous regulatory actions against companies like Alibaba and Meituan suggests that the stock price may experience a temporary drop of 20%-40% before stabilizing [6] - The importance of patience in investment is emphasized, as good opportunities often arise after periods of volatility and negative sentiment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The annual report of China Merchants Bank (CMB) for 2023 shows negative revenue growth but positive net profit growth, leading to a significant increase in stock price, indicating market satisfaction with the report. However, the overall economic environment presents more challenges than opportunities, and the actual operational difficulties outweigh the achievements [1][67]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Analysis - CMB's total revenue for 2023 was 339.1 billion, a decrease of 1.64% compared to 2022, reflecting weakened earning capacity [19][80]. - Both net interest income and non-interest income experienced a decline of 1.6%, indicating a contraction in profit margins and a lack of growth in core business areas [20][82]. - The increase in net profit, despite falling revenue, was primarily due to a significant reduction in credit impairment losses, which decreased by approximately 150 billion, allowing for a positive net profit outcome [24][85]. Group 2: Cost Management and Efficiency - CMB has successfully reduced employee costs, with the average cost per employee decreasing from 625,000 to 604,000, despite an increase in the number of employees [15][16]. - The effectiveness of cost-cutting measures is questioned, as the overall reduction in employee costs is relatively low compared to other industries [16][18]. Group 3: Deposit Trends - There is a concerning trend of increasing "deposit regularization," with corporate fixed deposits rising from 22% to 24.7% and personal fixed deposits increasing from 14.87% to 20.4% [32][92]. - The high cost of deposits is a significant risk, as the bank's deposit rates remain elevated despite multiple reductions in deposit costs throughout the year [30][90]. Group 4: Insurance Income Challenges - CMB's non-interest income from insurance sales, which is a crucial revenue source, is expected to face significant challenges in 2024 due to declining pricing and regulatory changes [36][98]. - The overall income from insurance sales increased by 9.33% to 136 billion, but this growth is overshadowed by declines in other areas such as fund and trust sales [37][98]. Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - CMB has played a role in driving the bond bull market, with bond interest income increasing by over 20%, which has helped offset some revenue losses [43][104]. - The bank is focusing on overseas markets, with a 14.78% increase in foreign exchange net income, indicating a strategic shift to capture new revenue streams [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the financial industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors and companies within the industry [3][21]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a decline this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points. The banking sector saw a decline of 3.03%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points [1][9]. - The report highlights a structural interest rate cut by the central bank, which is expected to impact various financial sectors, particularly banks and insurance companies. The insurance sector is viewed as being in a critical window for performance and valuation recovery [3][21]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to stabilize the derivatives market, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized and compliant brokerage firms [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.63%, with the securities, insurance, and diversified financial indices down by 2.21%, 3.59%, and 1.83% respectively [1][9]. - The banking sector's performance was notably poor, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 2.20%, 4.08%, 2.40%, and 2.20% respectively [1][9]. 2. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index fell by 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. The report indicates that regulatory cooling measures have created short-term pressure on the insurance sector, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to asset growth and interest margin recovery [1][13][15]. - Key companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and New China Life are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and recovery potential [3][16]. 3. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 2.21%, with the report emphasizing the potential benefits of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the derivatives market. The focus is on larger, well-capitalized firms that can navigate the evolving regulatory landscape [2][17]. - Recommendations include major brokerages like Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in profitability and valuation [2][18]. 4. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index fell by 3.03%, with the central bank's recent interest rate cut expected to support the sector's performance in the long run. The report suggests that banks may see a gradual recovery in net interest income and profitability [3][21][22]. - Specific banks such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, particularly those with previously undervalued positions [3][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a strategic platform for China's high-level opening-up and the dual circulation development model, positioning it as a key hub for connecting domestic and international markets [1] - China Merchants Bank (CMB) is deeply integrated into the national opening-up strategy and the overall layout of the Greater Bay Area, leveraging its location advantages to participate in cross-border financial mechanisms [1] - CMB has established a mature professional service capability and custody service system since its proactive layout in global custody business in 2006, supporting Chinese institutions in their global expansion [1] Group 2 - CMB aims to become the preferred global custodian bank by enhancing its professional, technological, and service capabilities, with a global custody network covering over 100 major financial markets [2] - Hong Kong serves as a core hub for CMB's global custody business, providing diversified services and maintaining advantages in public fund custody [2] - The establishment of CMB's global custody center in Singapore further strengthens its capabilities and supports Chinese institutions in expanding their global market presence [2] Group 3 - CMB is committed to enhancing its global custody services through technological empowerment, developing a global custody system that offers comprehensive online, automated, and intelligent operations [3] - The bank focuses on providing tailored global custody services for Chinese institutions, integrating various financial resources to create value for clients [3] - CMB's global custody business covers all types of asset management institutions, offering both basic and value-added services [3] Group 4 - As China's financial market opens further, the strategic position of the Greater Bay Area will be further highlighted, with CMB continuing to enhance its global custody service system to contribute to the high-level opening of China's finance [4]

依托两大支点，全球托管服务差异化优势明显。 招商银行托管业务始终以 " 致力于成为专业 更精、科技更强、服务更佳的客户首选全球托管银行 " 为愿景，持续完善全球托管网络布 局。作为首家在香港和新加坡开展托管业务的股份制商业银行，招商银行通过全球托管服务 网络，覆盖超 100 个主要金融市场，满足中资机构 " 走出去 " 和跨境资本 " 引进来 " 需 求，提供一站式综合解决方案。 香港作为粤港澳大湾区的核心，也是招商银行全球托管业务的桥头堡 。作为首批拿到 13 号 公募托管牌照的中资托管行， 招商银行全球托管香港中心以专业服务能力与高效服务水平， 持续巩固在公募基金等领域的托管优势，为客户提供多元化服务体系，赋能客户全球资产配 置。此外，随着招商银行全球托管新加坡中心的正式展业，进一步强化招商银行全球托管业 务能力，助力中资机构行稳致远拓展全球市场。 在全球经济深度融合与我国坚定不移推进高水平对外开放的宏大背景下，加快构建 " 双循环 " 发展新格局已成为国家战略纵深推进的关键路径。粤港澳大湾区作为 " 国家重大战略平台 " 和 " 改革开放前沿阵地 " ，承载着服务国家高水平双向开放、促进金融市场内外联通 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the successful launch of the "Zhaoyin Jinkui" satellite, marking a significant milestone in the collaboration of China Merchants Bank in the low Earth orbit satellite communication sector, establishing a "broadband + narrowband" communication matrix [1][4] - The "Zhaoyin Jinkui" satellite is part of the Tianqi constellation, which is China's first global network of low Earth orbit IoT satellites, developed and operated by the national-level specialized enterprise Beijing Guodian Gaoke Technology Co., Ltd [1][4] - The launch of the satellite enhances the constellation's density, reduces revisit intervals, and improves global communication capabilities, allowing for higher data transmission volumes and supporting more concurrent terminal devices [1][4] Group 2 - China Merchants Bank has integrated its strategy with national development goals, focusing on technological finance and providing long-term capital support and specialized financial services to emerging industries like commercial aerospace [2][5][6] - The bank's subsidiary, Zhaoyin Jinzu, has innovatively implemented China's first SPV satellite leasing business, providing equipment leasing services to meet the funding needs of the Tianqi constellation [2][6] - Future collaborations will explore diverse leasing models, including cross-border asset leasing and operational leasing, while promoting innovations in the lifecycle management of IoT satellite technology [2][6] Group 3 - China Merchants Bank is leveraging remote sensing, communication, and IoT satellite technologies to enhance its digital capabilities, integrating remote sensing technology into its financial risk control system [3][7] - The bank has developed a post-loan risk management system for residential mortgages, achieving over 95% accuracy in monitoring construction progress through high-resolution satellite imagery [3][7] - The bank has also initiated the application of low Earth orbit satellite communication technology in its financial disaster recovery systems, enhancing business continuity in extreme situations [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - Visa has announced support for Chinese-issued Visa cards to be linked to Apple Pay, breaking the previous exclusivity of UnionPay cards in China [1][2][3] Group 1: Initial Banks and Partnerships - The first eight banks to support this initiative include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ping An Bank, and Industrial Bank [2] - Visa is also collaborating with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Construction Bank, Minsheng Bank, and China Everbright Bank for future support [2] Group 2: Consumer Benefits and Promotions - Consumers can now use Apple Pay with Visa cards for contactless payments abroad, eliminating the need to carry a physical Visa card [2][4] - Various promotional activities have been launched by the initial banks to attract customers, including cashback offers and incentives for using Apple Pay with Visa cards [4][5] - For example, China Merchants Bank offers a 1% cashback on all overseas transactions made with Apple Pay linked Visa cards, while Ping An Bank provides a $5 cashback for transactions over $5.01 [4][5] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Visa has emphasized its investment in data and payment security, introducing payment tokenization services to enhance security in cross-border transactions [6][8] - Payment tokenization removes sensitive information during online or mobile shopping, significantly reducing fraud risks [6] - The integration of Visa cards with Apple Pay allows for the application of payment tokenization in more overseas payment scenarios, improving convenience and security for cardholders [6][7] Group 4: Security Features - When a China Merchants Bank Visa card is linked to Apple Pay, the actual card number is not stored on the device or Apple's servers, enhancing security [8] - A unique Device Account Number is generated and encrypted for secure storage, ensuring that payment information is protected [8]

Core Viewpoint - In a low-interest-rate environment, bank stocks are seen as representatives of dividend style investments, offering medium to long-term allocation value due to their high dividend characteristics [1] Group 1: Bank Indices Performance - The main bank indices in A-share and Hong Kong markets include the China Securities Bank Index, the China Securities Hong Kong Bank Index, and the China Securities AH Bank Index [2] - The China Securities Hong Kong Bank Index is expected to significantly outperform the China Securities Bank Index in 2025 [3] - From January 1 to December 31, 2025, the Hong Kong Bank Index recorded a growth of 28.94%, which is substantially higher than the 6.79% increase of the China Securities Bank Index and the 9.60% of the AH Bank Index [4] Group 2: Investment Trends and Fund Flows - In Q3 2025, the Hong Kong banking sector saw significant buying from insurance capital, while the A-share banking sector experienced substantial selling by public funds [10] - The proportion of active equity funds' holdings in A-share banks dropped from 3.91% to 1.49%, with the market value decreasing from 64.1 billion yuan to 30.8 billion yuan [10] - In contrast, insurance capital made 41 significant investments in banks throughout 2025, with 33 of these targeting H-share banks [10] Group 3: Stock Performance and Dividend Yields - The strong performance of the Hong Kong Bank Index is attributed to the notable gains of key stocks such as HSBC Holdings, which rose by 25.53%, and Standard Chartered, which increased by 30.66% [11] - The dividend yield for Hong Kong banks remains above 6%, making them attractive to insurance capital, while A-share banks generally have yields between 3% and 4% [13] - Historical data indicates that buying bank stocks before the Spring Festival has an 80% success rate, with quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks often yielding excess returns [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, insurance capital is expected to remain a significant source of funding, but bank stocks may underperform the broader market in the first quarter due to a growth-oriented market style [15] - The return on tangible equity (ROTE) for Hong Kong banks is projected to slightly decline in 2026, yet the combined return from dividends and buybacks is still expected to exceed 7%, maintaining their investment appeal [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline in deposit interest rates among banks, particularly in the context of a significant amount of deposits maturing in 2026, raising questions about whether these funds will shift to the stock market as banks lower rates to attract deposits [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Anhui Xin'an Bank has lowered its two-year fixed deposit rate by 10 basis points to 2.25% starting January 16 [1] - Yunnan Tengchong Rural Commercial Bank has reduced its three-month large-denomination certificate of deposit rate to 0.95% [1] - Many small and medium-sized banks have also continued to lower deposit rates, with some entering the "1% era" [1] Group 2: Maturing Deposits - According to CICC, the scale of maturing household deposits is projected to reach approximately 75 trillion yuan by 2026, with 67 trillion yuan of one-year and above deposits maturing [2] - The maturing deposits in 2026 are expected to increase by 12% compared to 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8 trillion yuan [2] - In the first quarter of this year, the scale of maturing one-year and above household deposits is estimated to be 29 trillion yuan, an increase of about 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period in 2025 [2] Group 3: Investment Behavior and Trends - The typical "deposit migration" path is from large banks to smaller banks, with expectations of reduced marginal pressure in 2026 [3] - Analysts suggest that the current narrative of "deposit migration" does not indicate a substantial change in residents' risk preferences but rather a marginal adjustment in asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - The primary destinations for migrated deposits include the stock market, consumption, early mortgage repayment, and various financial products such as bank wealth management and insurance [3]