Core Insights - The average cost of personal deposits is a key indicator of banks' liability costs, with lower rates indicating stronger competitiveness in attracting deposits [1][7]. Group 1: Ranking of Banks by Deposit Cost - The banks with the lowest average cost of personal deposits are primarily state-owned large banks and some retail-focused joint-stock banks, with China Merchants Bank leading at 1.18% for the 2025 mid-year report [2][8]. - Following China Merchants Bank are China Postal Savings Bank at 1.23% and Agricultural Bank of China at 1.38%, benefiting from extensive branch networks and strong customer bases [2][8]. - The top six banks all have costs below 2%, indicating strong deposit cost control capabilities [2][8]. Group 2: Cost Trends and Observations - A notable trend is the general decline in average deposit costs across most banks when comparing 2024 annual reports to 2025 mid-year reports, with China Merchants Bank decreasing from 1.44% to 1.18% [6][12]. - This decline reflects a reduction in liability cost pressures for the banking industry, positively impacting net interest margins and profitability [6][12]. - However, lower deposit costs must align with asset yield and risk management capabilities, as a healthy bank seeks to balance these factors [12]. Group 3: Challenges for Joint-Stock and Regional Banks - Joint-stock banks and regional commercial banks generally face higher average deposit costs, often exceeding 2%, which can challenge their net interest margin management [5][11]. - National joint-stock banks like Industrial Bank and Minsheng Bank have costs ranging from 2.11% to 2.18%, while some regional banks experience even greater cost pressures [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and is maintained [13]. Core Insights - The market sentiment has significantly improved since the beginning of the year, leading to substantial net outflows from major index funds like CSI 300 and SSE 50, with bank stocks experiencing the highest decline among primary sectors [2][6]. - Despite the recent pressure on bank stocks due to net outflows from index funds, there is an expectation that the market will continue to focus on high-quality bank stocks with stable or improving fundamentals, presenting good investment opportunities [2][8]. - The pricing power of fundamental factors for bank stocks is expected to increase in 2026, with a projected reversal in net interest income growth and stable performance from major banks [10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, bank stocks have been under pressure due to capital outflows, primarily from public funds and ETFs, reflecting a shift in institutional investor strategies [6][7]. - The net outflow from CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs reached 103.6 billion and 19.7 billion respectively during January 15-16, significantly above normal levels [7]. Valuation and Dividend Yield - Bank stocks are considered systematically undervalued under the PB-ROE framework, with current PB valuations below net asset value [9]. - The expected dividend yields for major state-owned banks have risen above 4%, with some leading banks like China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank reaching yields of 5% to 6% [9][26]. Performance Outlook - Major banks are expected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with credit growth projected to be flat year-on-year, focusing on operational efficiency rather than scale [10]. - The non-interest income pressure from financial market activities has eased, and overall revenue growth is anticipated to be driven by net interest income [10].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Merchants Bank's credit card center marks a significant transition as Liu Jialong retires and Li Mingdong takes over, reflecting the evolving landscape of the credit card industry in China [1] Group 1: Leadership Transition - Liu Jialong, the former general manager of the credit card center, has retired and will serve as a consultant, having been a pivotal figure in the credit card industry since 1996 [1] - Li Mingdong, previously the general manager of the wealth platform department, has assumed the role of general manager of the credit card center, pending regulatory approval [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Liu Jialong emphasized the importance of recognizing industry cycles, noting that in 2018, the bank anticipated a shift from a growth phase to a more stable market, leading to a reduction in expansion plans by one-third [2] - The credit card industry is transitioning from an incremental growth market to a more mature, stock-based market, necessitating strategic adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Strategies - Liu Jialong outlined a focus on risk management and sustainable growth, advocating for a dual approach of enhancing payment services and small loans while leveraging both branch and direct sales channels [3] - The strategy includes targeting key regions for customer acquisition and improving operational effectiveness to enhance customer value [3] Group 4: Li Mingdong's Background - Li Mingdong has extensive experience in retail finance and wealth management, having held various leadership roles within China Merchants Bank, including assistant president positions in multiple branches [4] - His background includes directorships in consumer finance and asset management, positioning him well to lead the credit card center [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high, exceeding $4,690 per ounce, leading to a surge in demand for gold and other precious metals, while the availability of bank safety deposit boxes has become critically low, especially in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1][7]. Group 1: Gold Price and Demand - The spot gold price increased by approximately 70% in 2025, driving a significant rise in consumer investment demand for gold bars and other precious metals [2][8]. - As demand for gold rises, the difficulty in renting safety deposit boxes has become more pronounced, with reports of waiting times extending up to five to six years for certain banks [1][8]. Group 2: Supply Constraints of Safety Deposit Boxes - The supply of safety deposit boxes is characterized by static growth, as banks primarily view this service as a means to maintain high-net-worth clients rather than a profit center, leading to limited resource allocation [2][5]. - High renewal rates and slow turnover of safety deposit boxes exacerbate the supply shortage, creating a rigid gap in availability [3][9]. Group 3: Bank Strategies and Challenges - Banks face challenges in increasing the supply of safety deposit boxes due to low profitability, high operational costs, and the expensive nature of building new secure storage facilities [5][11]. - Current strategies include optimizing existing resources and implementing technology upgrades to improve space utilization, but these measures are gradual and unlikely to resolve the supply-demand imbalance in the short term [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lu Master (03601.HK), has entered into a structured deposit product agreement with China Merchants Bank, involving an investment of 50 million RMB [1] Group 1 - The agreement is established between Lu Master’s subsidiary, Chengdu Mijia You, and China Merchants Bank [1] - The investment of 50 million RMB is derived from the redeemed principal under a previous structured deposit product agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lu Master (03601), aims to utilize its idle funds to achieve better returns by entering into a structured deposit agreement with China Merchants Bank (600036) [1] Group 1 - The subsidiary Chengdu Mijia You has agreed to subscribe to a structured deposit product worth RMB 50 million [1] - The subscription funds are derived from the principal that has been redeemed under a previous structured deposit agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lu Master (03601), aims to utilize its idle funds to achieve better returns by entering into a structured deposit agreement with China Merchants Bank [1] Group 1 - The company announced that its subsidiary, Chengdu Mijia You, has signed a structured deposit product agreement with China Merchants Bank [1] - The agreement involves a subscription of RMB 50 million for the structured deposit product [1] - The subscription funds are derived from the redeemed principal under a previous structured deposit product agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership changes at China Merchants Bank (CMB) reflect a strategic shift in its retail banking operations, particularly in the credit card and wealth management sectors, amidst a challenging market environment for credit card businesses [1][15]. Leadership Changes - CMB announced the approval of the qualifications for two new assistant presidents, Cui Jiakun and Wang Xinghai, who will also serve as heads of the Beijing and Shenzhen branches respectively, resulting in a new executive structure of "one president, four vice presidents, and two assistant presidents" [1][15]. - Liu Jialong, the former general manager of the credit card center, will transition to a consultant role after years of leadership in the credit card sector [3][17]. - Li Mingdong, previously the general manager of the wealth platform department, is set to take over as the new general manager of the credit card center [5][19]. - Lu Xiaorong, the general manager of the retail financial headquarters, will also assume the role of general manager of the wealth platform department [7][21]. Credit Card Business Performance - As of mid-2025, CMB's credit card center reported total assets of 878.48 billion yuan, with 96.93 million active cards and 69.63 million active cardholders [8][22]. - The credit card transaction volume for the first half of 2025 was 2,020.96 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.54%, with interest income down by 4.96% and non-interest income down by 16.23% [9][23]. - The bank's market share in credit cards increased by 0.3 percentage points despite the overall decline in transaction volume, attributed to the slow recovery of the consumer market [9][23]. Wealth Management Growth - CMB's wealth management business has emerged as a new growth driver, with fee and commission income reaching 20.67 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, marking an 18.76% year-on-year increase [9][23]. - The total assets under management (AUM) for retail clients reached 16,597.523 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting an increase of 1,670.809 billion yuan or 11.19% from the previous year [10][24]. Branch Leadership Adjustments - Recent adjustments in branch leadership include Liu Wenjuan being promoted to assistant president of the Nanjing branch, and He Junqian's qualification as deputy president of the Wuhan branch being approved [11][27]. - He Fei, the former deputy general manager of the corporate finance headquarters, has been reassigned to the Shijiazhuang branch as party secretary and is expected to become the branch president [14][28].

Group 1 - The article highlights the top three and bottom three AH premium rates for various companies, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at 815.25% and Ningde Times (03750) at -11.36% [1] - The top three companies with the highest deviation values are Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) at 129.73%, Goldwind Technology (02208) at 38.82%, and Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) at 18.64% [1] - The bottom three companies with the lowest deviation values include Northeast Electric (00042) at -42.57%, Chenming Paper (01812) at -21.05%, and Nanhua Futures (02691) at -20.64% [1] Group 2 - The top ten AH stocks by premium rate include Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 384.97% and Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) at 355.07% [2] - The bottom ten AH stocks by premium rate include China Merchants Bank (03968) at -0.84% and Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -4.80% [2] - The deviation values for the bottom ten AH stocks show significant negative values for Northeast Electric (00042) and Chenming Paper (01812), indicating a potential mispricing in the market [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, with a focus on structural monetary policy support for high-quality economic development [15][19] - The central bank has implemented a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in various structural monetary policy tool rates, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance [15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing for future policy implementations, particularly in relation to government bond issuance peaks and the maturity schedule of high-interest bank deposits [15] Summary by Sections 1. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report notes a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in structural monetary policy tool rates, with a focus on supporting key areas through increased re-lending [15] - Future attention is directed towards December economic data and January LPR [22] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted a total of 9,515 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 9,741 billion yuan [16] - The report highlights that the funding rates remained stable, with expectations of slight increases due to tax payments and government bond net repayments [16] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The report indicates that the total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) is 19.09 trillion yuan, with an average issuance rate of 1.65% [20] - The report also notes that there were no commercial bank bond issuances during the period, with a total outstanding commercial bank bond size of 3.38 trillion yuan [20]