创新药 BD 专题论坛 - 买全球最好的中国创新药 20260626 摘要 2024 年中国药企全年交易总额超 600 亿美元，预计 2025-2026 年中 国创新药公司将迎来板块性盈利，受益于体量增加和经营杠杆提升。 中国医药产业与欧美差距逐渐缩小，部分领域已实现同步甚至超越，如 DKS 和 KRAS G10C 等靶点新药上市时间差已缩短至三至五年。 资本市场对中国生物医药发展影响显著，港股 18A 和科创板上市为企业 提供资金支持，加速研发投入和扩大生产能力。 与 Big Pharma 合作通常带来更高商业化回报，交易金额与项目阶段密 切相关，阶段越靠后，研发风险越小，成药可能性越大。 中国创新药出海趋势加强，目前以 license 权益为主，未来将有更多公 司在欧美建立商业化团队，如百济神州的泽布替尼在美国市场占有率领 先。 国内创新药市场收入加速，以 A 股为例，剔除百济神州后，板块收入增 速基本在 30%-40%，经营杠杆效应明显，2025 年同比减亏 78%，2026 年有望板块性盈利。 泽璟制药在肿瘤治疗领域布局广泛，包括双特异性抗体 CG005（PD-1 TIGIT）和 CGGS18（VEG ...

Summary of BeiGene (BGNE) Update / Briefing June 26, 2025 Company Overview - **Company Name**: B1 Medicines (formerly BeiGene) - **Focus**: Oncology, specifically in the development of innovative cancer treatments Key Points and Arguments 1. **Mission and Vision**: B1 Medicines aims to transform the R&D process in oncology, making medicines more affordable and accessible while providing superior returns to investors [6][10][11] 2. **Commitment to Oncology**: The company emphasizes its dedication to fighting cancer, especially as some competitors shift focus to other therapeutic areas [8][9] 3. **R&D Model**: B1 has developed a unique R&D model that prioritizes quality, speed, and cost efficiency, allowing for a significant increase in the number of new molecule entities entering clinical trials [25][26][27] 4. **Clinical Development**: The company has built a global clinical development team of over 3,700 professionals, enabling it to conduct trials without relying on Contract Research Organizations (CROs), thus reducing costs and improving quality [42][44] 5. **Pipeline Expansion**: B1 has a robust pipeline with 96 ongoing trials across various phases and modalities, reflecting its commitment to advancing transformative medicines [39][40] 6. **Hematology Franchise**: The company has established a strong hematology franchise with three key medicines and aims to expand its leadership in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) and beyond [19][56] 7. **Innovative Treatments**: B1 is developing next-generation BCL-2 inhibitors, such as Sonorotoclax, which aim to address the limitations of existing treatments like Venetoclax [67][72] 8. **Combination Therapies**: The combination of Sonorotoclax with Zanubrutinib shows promising results in achieving high rates of undetectable measurable residual disease (MRD) and favorable safety profiles [88][90] Additional Important Content 1. **Patient Impact**: B1 has already helped 1.7 million patients and their families in the fight against cancer, showcasing its commitment to patient care [15][16] 2. **Investment in Technology**: The company has made substantial investments in various modalities, including protein degraders and antibody-drug conjugates, to enhance its drug development capabilities [26][29][33] 3. **Regulatory Success**: Burkynza, a key product, has achieved significant market penetration and has been approved in 75 markets, demonstrating its efficacy and safety compared to competitors [59][62] 4. **Market Opportunity**: Despite advancements in CLL treatment, there remains a considerable unmet medical need, particularly for fixed-duration treatments, which B1 aims to address with its innovative therapies [56][57][71] This summary encapsulates the core messages and strategic direction of B1 Medicines as presented in the briefing, highlighting its commitment to innovation in oncology and the development of impactful treatments for cancer patients.

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector reflects a positive market sentiment towards innovative drug companies, driven by long-term expectations of industry upgrades and the recognition of R&D asset values [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index (930965) decreased by 0.64%, with mixed performances among constituent stocks [1]. - Notable gainers included Nuo Cheng Jian Hua (09969) up 1.48% and Yun Ding Xin Yao (01952) up 1.20%, while leading decliners included Lian Bang Pharmaceutical (03933) down 5.07% [1]. - The Hong Kong Pharmaceutical ETF (159718) saw a slight decline of 0.12%, with a recent price of 0.84 yuan, but had a weekly increase of 1.69% [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Scale - The Hong Kong Pharmaceutical ETF had a turnover rate of 21.07% with a trading volume of 53.59 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the ETF's scale increased by 2.31 million yuan, ranking second among comparable funds [1]. - In terms of shares, the ETF added 5 million shares over the last three months, also ranking second among comparable funds [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Fangzheng Securities, there is a strong belief in the ongoing bullish trend for innovative drugs, with a continued revaluation of innovative drug assets expected [1]. - The current market rally is characterized by a recognition of the commercial viability of innovative drug models, particularly for leading companies like BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical, which are anticipated to achieve profitability through business development or globalization by 2024 or Q1 2025 [1][2]. - The collective rise of leading innovative drug stocks indicates a systematic re-evaluation of their long-term R&D investments, with the market's confidence in the sustainability of their profit models improving [2]. Group 4: Fund Flows and Leverage - The Medical Innovation ETF (516820) experienced a 0.57% decline, with a recent price of 0.35 yuan, but had a 3-month cumulative increase of 2.05% [3]. - The ETF saw a net inflow of funds over the past six days, totaling 63.57 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 10.60 million yuan [3]. - Leveraged funds have been actively buying into the Medical Innovation ETF, with a total net purchase of 5.61 million yuan and a latest financing balance of 56.05 million yuan [3]. Group 5: Index Composition - The CSI Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Innovation Index (931484) includes 30 companies with strong profitability and growth potential, reflecting the overall performance of the pharmaceutical and medical device sector [5]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.57% of its total weight, including companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and WuXi AppTec [5]. - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health Comprehensive Index (930965) also features a top ten weighted stock composition that represents 60.77% of the index, including companies like BeiGene and WuXi Biologics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) has shown significant growth in both share volume and fund size since its inception, indicating strong investor interest in the innovative drug sector [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 24, the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (159567) closed with a gain of 2.25% and a trading volume of 2.373 billion yuan [1]. - The fund was established on January 3, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - The latest share count reached 1.478 billion, with a total fund size of 2.217 billion yuan as of June 23, reflecting a 273.92% increase in shares and a 486.71% increase in size since December 31, 2024 [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF recorded a cumulative trading amount of 38.434 billion yuan, averaging 1.922 billion yuan per day [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has seen a total trading amount of 79.325 billion yuan over 113 trading days, averaging 0.702 billion yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund manager is Ma Jun, who has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 49.94% during the management period [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include WuXi Biologics (11.47%), BeiGene (10.87%), and Innovent Biologics (9.60%), among others, with significant market values attributed to each [2].

Group 1 - The core index, the CESHKB, increased by 2.7% to 7293.11 points with a trading volume of 11.568 billion [1] - The CESHKB has risen by 15.52% in the past month, 19.54% in the past three months, and 58.49% year-to-date [1] - The index is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. under the commission of China Securities Trading Service Co., Ltd. and aims to reflect the overall performance of biotechnology companies listed in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CESHKB include: CanSino Biologics (10.91%), Innovent Biologics (9.99%), BeiGene (9.73%), WuXi Biologics (9.42%), 3SBio (8.11%), Zai Lab (6.05%), WuXi AppTec (5.56%), Kelun-Biotech (5.15%), Kingstar Bio (4.37%), and Ascentage Pharma-B (3.89%) [1] - The CESHKB is entirely composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [2] - The index's holdings are exclusively in the healthcare sector, specifically in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, also at a 100% allocation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$195.16, representing a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HK$147.70 [2][10][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first GAAP profit in Q1 2025, with revenue growth and pipeline realization creating a positive cycle. The revenue for 2024 was reported at US$3.81 billion, a 55% year-on-year increase, and the company reported a net loss of US$645 million, narrowing by 27% [7][11]. - The main product, Zebutini, saw Q1 2025 sales reach US$792 million, a significant increase of 62.1% year-on-year, indicating a strong commercialization foundation [8]. - The R&D pipeline is progressing well, with several products in critical clinical stages, including the BCL-2 inhibitor Sonrotoclax and BTK CDAC (BGB-16673), which are expected to yield important clinical results soon [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from US$3.81 billion in 2024 to US$5.39 billion in 2025, with a net profit expected to turn positive at US$93 million in 2025 [12][13]. - The report indicates a decrease in EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, revised to US$0.06 and US$0.37 respectively, reflecting a 39% and 29% reduction from previous estimates [3][13]. - The financial data shows a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with Q1 2025 cash inflow reaching US$44.08 million, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7][12]. Product Performance - The core product, Baiyueze, is expected to generate sales of US$3.31 billion in 2025, a 43.3% increase from previous estimates, while other products are projected to contribute US$0.81 billion [14][16]. - The report highlights that the company’s revenue structure is increasingly concentrated on core products, supported by ongoing expansion in overseas markets [14]. Valuation Analysis - The DCF model used for valuation indicates a target price of HK$195.16, based on a WACC of 8.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.5% [17][19]. - The company’s projected enterprise value/revenue for 2025 is 5.5 times, which is below the industry average of 8.1 times, suggesting that the market has not fully recognized the company’s strong commercialization capabilities [18].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing a significant revaluation opportunity after over three years of downturn, with over 30 companies seeing their stock prices double since early 2025 [1] - Notable companies like Sihuan Pharmaceutical and Innovent Biologics have market capitalizations exceeding HKD 50 billion and HKD 120 billion respectively [1] - More than ten innovative drug companies have submitted listing applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, with a record seven applications in the first half of June alone [1] Group 2 - The recent rise in the Hong Kong biopharmaceutical sector is primarily a valuation correction after previous significant declines, with some companies experiencing over 90% drop from historical highs [2] - Key players driving the market include companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, which have achieved overseas commercialization through business development partnerships [2] - The investment cycle in the primary market is expected to take time to recover, as many institutions face tight funding and only a few top-tier institutions can sustain investments [2] Group 3 - The investment landscape is shifting, with early-stage projects attracting significant funding, while clinical and later-stage projects struggle to secure adequate financing [2] - The Hong Kong market's acceptance of companies in phase II clinical trials provides an important exit channel for the primary market [3] - Collaborations between multinational pharmaceutical companies and private equity firms to establish investment funds in the innovative drug sector are becoming more common [4] Group 4 - The core factor influencing the commercial value of innovative drugs is the healthcare payment policy, with recent trends in pricing negotiations becoming more favorable for companies [4] - Concerns exist regarding the potential negative impact of excessive cost control on research and development motivation within the industry [5] - There is a consensus among investors on the need for long-term capital support, with hopes for increased participation from insurance and social security funds [5] Group 5 - The investment trend for the second half of the year and into 2026 is expected to see a concentration of funds towards truly innovative companies, while projects lacking differentiation may be eliminated [5] - The global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is improving, with a shift from imitation to original innovation, particularly in areas like bispecific antibodies and cell therapies [5]

Group 1 - The innovative drug sector has become a focal point in the capital market since 2025, with Hong Kong's innovative drug index showing strong performance, increasing over 60% year-to-date and achieving record trading volumes [1] - Policy incentives and improvements in the industry fundamentals are driving this performance, including accelerated drug approvals and optimization of the medical insurance payment system [2] - The collaboration between domestic companies and international firms, such as the $60.5 billion partnership between 3SBio and Pfizer, highlights the growing international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [2] Group 2 - Despite the long-term positive outlook, short-term volatility risks are present, with some stocks experiencing high price-to-sales ratios and potential profit-taking pressures [3] - The trading congestion in the innovative drug sector reached 3.9% as of June 13, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for significant corrections [3] - Uncertainties in drug development, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations could impact the sector, with risks of clinical trial failures and regulatory changes affecting company valuations [3] Group 3 - The innovative drug index is expected to experience increased differentiation, with leading companies likely to maintain their advantages while weaker firms may lag behind [4] - Investors should focus on performance verification periods and policy developments, such as improvements in the medical insurance payment mechanism and the expansion of the Hong Kong 18A listing [4] - The innovative drug sector is positioned at the intersection of industry cycles and policy benefits, with long-term growth potential driven by international expansion and technological advancements [4]

Investment Highlights - Financial performance shows commercial expansion and profit improvement, with 2024 sales revenue for 17 commercialized innovative drug companies reaching 91.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 35% [4][25] - R&D investment for 32 sample innovative drug companies is projected to be 67.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, indicating a sustained trend of local innovation investment [4][13] - The sales expense ratio and R&D expense ratio for 22 sample innovative drug companies have been continuously declining from 2021 to 2024, which is expected to drive profit improvement for companies like BeiGene and Innovent [4][15] MNC Strategies - The report highlights the prominent "Chinaization" of IO+ADC strategies, with multinational corporations (MNCs) having strong first-generation IO pipeline layouts, but second-generation IO has not seen significant breakthroughs [4][27] - MNCs are increasingly relying on local innovative drugs as key pipeline assets, with many future potential products being sourced from Chinese companies [4][30] - MNCs are well-capitalized, with ample cash flow supporting the continued enrichment of their pipelines, particularly in the context of the evolving IO+ADC landscape [4][39] Domestic Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the global innovation and valuation reshaping of Chinese drugs, driven by supportive domestic policies and increasing international competitiveness [4][45] - The value of BD transactions continues to validate the competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs, with 2024 projected BD transaction income reaching 5.7 billion USD, accounting for 20% of global cooperation authorization total upfront payments [4][45][47] - The commercialization of major products is accelerating, with a rich NDA reserve expected to drive further growth in domestic commercialization [4][50]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Weilizhibo Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (Weilizhibo) has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for a main board listing, facing significant challenges due to operational difficulties and financial pressures despite a strong fundraising history [2][4]. Financing and Valuation - Since its establishment, Weilizhibo has completed 8 rounds of financing, raising approximately 1.084 billion yuan, with a post-investment valuation reaching 3.13 billion yuan before its IPO [2][14]. - The company has attracted investments from notable institutions such as Enran Venture Capital and Hankan Capital [2]. Product Pipeline and Market Challenges - Weilizhibo's pipeline includes 14 candidate drugs, with 6 in clinical stages, including the core product LBL-024, a dual-specific antibody targeting PD-L1 and 4-1BB, which is in a pivotal clinical trial for advanced pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma [4][5]. - The market for pulmonary neuroendocrine carcinoma is characterized as "niche," with limited patient numbers and a projected increase in incidence from 48,200 cases in 2019 to 65,200 cases by 2024 globally [5][6]. Financial Performance and Losses - The company has reported cumulative losses exceeding 700 million yuan from 2023 to the first quarter of 2025, with significant cash flow issues and negative operating cash flows of -193 million yuan, -119 million yuan, and -26.4 million yuan for the respective years [9][12]. - Weilizhibo's only revenue source was a collaboration with BeiGene, which ended in May 2025, leading to a "zero revenue" situation [9][12]. Operational and Strategic Risks - The company faces challenges in commercializing its core product due to the small patient base and limited market size, which may cap potential revenue growth even if the product is successfully launched [6][9]. - High R&D expenditures have consistently outpaced revenue, with R&D costs accounting for over 85% of total operating expenses in recent years [11][12]. Shareholder Dynamics - Prior to the IPO, early investors have begun to transfer their shares at discounted prices, indicating potential concerns about the company's future prospects [15][16].