Summary of the Conference Call on Innovative Drug Investment Industry Overview - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit significantly from business development (BD) transactions, with total transaction value exceeding $100 billion in 2025, leading to a projected revenue increase of approximately 6 times for Chinese innovative drug companies as the industry enters a growth phase [1][3] - China has become one of the most efficient countries globally in transitioning from preclinical confirmation (PCC) to proof of concept (POC), supported by high-quality clinical resources and efficient development capabilities [1][6] Key Companies and Products - **BeiGene**: Expected global sales of its product, Zanubrutinib, to reach $3.7 billion in 2025, potentially increasing to $4.5-5 billion by 2027, setting a benchmark for other companies [1][7] - **Innovative Drug Companies to Watch**: Recommendations include BeiGene, Kelun-Biotech (partnered with Merck), Innovent Biologics (partnered with Takeda), and Kintor Pharmaceutical, along with high-potential companies like Eucure Biopharma and Sinopharm [1][8] Investment Logic and Trends - The primary investment logic for 2026 in innovative drugs is "de-risking," emphasizing certainty in clinical, regulatory, commercial, and financial aspects of companies [2] - The innovative drug market is characterized by high volatility, necessitating the establishment of target market capitalization ranges and effective cost dilution or accumulation strategies [2] Clinical Data and Emerging Fields - Significant clinical data releases are anticipated in 2026 from major academic conferences such as the Morgan Conference, ACR, ASCO, and ESMO, which will impact stock prices of related companies [1][11] - Emerging fields to focus on include In vivo CAR technology and oncology products like AZ's datopotamab and Kintor's product [1][12][13] De-risking Strategies - De-risking strategies involve reducing research and development risks as pipelines advance, with success rates increasing significantly from preclinical to clinical stages [5] - Companies should secure quality assets through regulatory channels and maintain strong cash reserves to ensure project continuity [5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The innovative drug market is at a critical inflection point, with many companies approaching breakeven and profit margin improvement, presenting investment opportunities [9] - Key factors for selecting innovative drug investments include the quality of POC data, consistency of overseas market data, and the operational advantages of companies [10] Conclusion - The innovative drug sector in China is poised for substantial growth, driven by efficient development processes and a strong pipeline of promising products. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with established market presence and those entering critical development phases, as they are likely to yield significant returns in the evolving landscape of the pharmaceutical industry [21]

Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds in the Hong Kong stock market, with Xiaomi Group, Tencent Holdings, and China Construction Bank leading in net inflows, while the Yingfu Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Southern Hang Seng Technology experienced the highest net outflows [1] Group 1: Net Inflows - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 1.07 billion, representing a 16.36% increase in its closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 863 million, with a 7.49% increase in its closing price [2] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of 699 million, with a significant 41.06% increase in its closing price [2] Group 2: Net Outflows - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the largest net outflow of 6.289 billion, reflecting a -31.44% change in its closing price [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of 2.880 billion, with a -17.89% change in its closing price [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) faced a net outflow of 1.289 billion, showing a -11.37% change in its closing price [2] Group 3: Net Inflow Ratios - 361 Degrees (01361) led with a net inflow ratio of 74.40%, with a net inflow of 8.9117 million [3] - BRILLIANCE CHI (01114) followed with a net inflow ratio of 64.04%, amounting to a net inflow of 36.4910 million [3] - Qin Port Co. (03369) had a net inflow ratio of 61.05%, with a net inflow of 846,600 [3] Group 4: Net Outflow Ratios - Wisdom Hong Kong 100 (02825) had a net outflow ratio of -100.00%, with a net outflow of -18,200 [3] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (02005) recorded a net outflow ratio of -68.86%, with a net outflow of -14.1501 million [3] - Dexion Shipping (02510) experienced a net outflow ratio of -53.53%, with a net outflow of -10.0204 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the pharmaceutical sector, with the overall performance of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 7.8% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 3.82% [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation stands at 30.6 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5]. - The report highlights significant developments in the long-term care insurance system transitioning from pilot programs to full establishment during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with coverage reaching nearly 300 million people and fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [11]. - Notable advancements in drug commercialization include the launch of Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 weight loss drug Wegovy in the U.S., with monthly costs ranging from $149 to $299 for self-paying patients [13][14]. - Moderna has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for its seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010, showing promising efficacy results in clinical trials [15]. - Arrowhead has reported positive mid-stage results for its RNAi therapies ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, demonstrating significant reductions in visceral and liver fat [16][17]. - GSK's hepatitis B drug Bepirovirsen has shown statistically significant functional cure rates in its Phase III trials [18]. - Recent approvals for innovative drugs in China include BeiGene's BCL-2 inhibitor and Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug, which addresses familial chylomicronemia syndrome [19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increased by 7.8%, ranking 6th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][3]. - Various sub-sectors showed positive growth, with medical devices and medical outsourcing leading with increases of 10.8% and 11.1%, respectively [5]. Industry Dynamics - The long-term care insurance system is set to expand significantly, with a focus on providing care for the elderly and disabled [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in drug development, particularly in RNAi therapies and small nucleic acid drugs, which are gaining traction in clinical settings [16][18]. Company Developments - Significant partnerships and collaborations are highlighted, such as the $8.88 billion research collaboration between Insilico Medicine and Servier focusing on oncology [20]. - The report notes the successful commercialization of several new drugs, including BeiGene's and Sanofi's recent approvals, which are expected to impact market dynamics positively [19][21]. - The establishment of new companies and subsidiaries, such as the brain-computer interface subsidiary by Xinwei Medical, indicates a strategic shift towards innovative technologies in healthcare [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating based on recent market performance and emerging opportunities in innovative drug development [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a significant increase, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index rising by 7.8%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 3.82% [2][3]. - The report highlights the ongoing commercialization of innovative drugs, including the oral GLP-1 medication Wegovy by Novo Nordisk, and the successful clinical trials of various RNAi therapies [11][13][18]. - The establishment of a comprehensive long-term care insurance system in China is expected to enhance the healthcare landscape, potentially benefiting the pharmaceutical sector [11][12]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index ranked 6th among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with various sub-sectors showing positive growth, such as medical devices (+10.8%) and medical research outsourcing (+11.1%) [2][5]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector stands at 30.6 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [5][10]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the successful approval and commercialization of several new drugs, including BeiGene's BCL-2 inhibitor and Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug, which address significant medical needs [20][22]. - Collaborations in drug development are highlighted, such as the $8.88 billion partnership between Insilico Medicine and Servier focusing on oncology [21]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the brain-computer interface industry, with companies like Mindray Medical and Lepu Medical making strides in this area [24]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on domestic innovative drug companies and CROs, particularly those involved in the development of small nucleic acid drugs and brain-computer interface technologies [2][11]. - Specific companies to watch include Tigermed, WuXi AppTec, and Innovent Biologics, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery of the innovative drug sector [2][11].

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed strength on January 12, with the innovative drug concept experiencing fluctuations after several days of rebound; the Hang Seng-Hushen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index fell by 0.63% at the time of reporting, while stocks like CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, BeiGene, and Boteng Co., Ltd. saw slight increases [1] - Since the beginning of 2026, as of the close on January 9, the Hang Seng-Hushen-Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index has rebounded over 10% cumulatively [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) was actively traded, with a transaction amount exceeding 40 million yuan and a premium rate of 0.78% at the time of reporting; it has seen continuous capital inflow, accumulating over 170 million yuan from January 7 to 9 [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, it is recommended to focus on three dimensions for investment in 2026: "innovative drugs and their industrial chain, demand recovery and operational turning points, and AI+" [2] - Continuous attention should be paid to the AI+ theme, the positive catalysts from the JPM conference in the innovative drug sector, and the potential for exceeding annual performance forecasts or clearing turning point opportunities [2]

Core Insights - The approval of Zeshuo Pharmaceutical's injection of human thyroid-stimulating hormone beta (Zesuning) marks a significant milestone as it becomes China's first innovative product approved for precise assessment post-surgery for differentiated thyroid cancer [1][2] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is experiencing robust growth, with multiple new drugs receiving approval since the beginning of 2026, including innovative drugs from companies like Hengrui Medicine and BeiGene [1][2] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) is enhancing support for innovative drugs, focusing on new mechanisms and targets, and aims to facilitate the "China first launch" of innovative drugs [3][4] Company Developments - Hengrui Medicine's innovative drug, the dual-specific antibody fusion protein Ruilafuzumab α injection, has been approved as the world's first anti-PD-L1/TGF-βRII dual-specificity antibody fusion protein for advanced gastric cancer [1][2] - BeiGene's innovative drug, Sotorasib tablets, has received conditional approval for treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma and is the first and only BCL2 inhibitor approved for treating mantle cell lymphoma in China [2] - The approval of multiple innovative drugs reflects a significant increase in the number of innovative drugs approved in China, with 76 approved in 2025, surpassing the 48 approved in 2024 [2] Industry Trends - Approximately 20 major new drugs are expected to receive approval in 2026, covering various therapeutic areas such as oncology, infectious diseases, rare diseases, autoimmune diseases, and neurological disorders [3] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a follower to a competitor, with many domestic companies accelerating the development and market entry of groundbreaking innovative drugs [2][3] - The NMPA is implementing reforms to enhance the drug approval process, including the introduction of a data protection system for drug trials and a market exclusivity system for pediatric and rare disease medications [4][5] Policy Support - The NMPA is set to provide comprehensive support across the entire chain of communication, clinical trials, registration, and review processes for innovative drugs [4] - The new medical insurance directory has been implemented, facilitating the inclusion of innovative drugs in hospitals, which alleviates initial payment challenges for high-value innovative drugs [4] - The NMPA is also optimizing the review process for urgently needed foreign drugs, encouraging global simultaneous research and application in China [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for the pharmaceutical sector have shown a strong recovery at the beginning of 2026, marked by a "five consecutive days of gains" trend, driven by supportive policies, payment innovations, and explosive growth in overseas markets [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest close, the A-share innovative drug ETF (159992) closed at 0.897 CNY per share, up 1.7%, with a daily trading volume of 845 million CNY, and a year-to-date increase of 7.94% [2]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159570) closed at 0.553 HKD per share, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 572 million HKD, and a year-to-date increase of 11.04% [4]. - Notable stocks such as Weikang Pharmaceutical, Frontier Biologics-U, and Hongbo Pharmaceutical achieved daily price limits, indicating strong market sentiment [2][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - The turnaround in market sentiment is attributed to a combination of policy support, payment innovations, and explosive growth in overseas markets [6]. - The new medical insurance directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory were launched simultaneously, further supporting the innovative drug sector [6]. - Local policies have also been strengthened, with the Guangzhou government announcing plans to accelerate the strategic layout of innovative drugs, focusing on monoclonal antibodies, vaccines, and blood products [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Improvements - The approval process for innovative drugs has entered a fast track, with the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) enhancing support for innovative drugs with new mechanisms and targets [8]. - The NMPA has optimized the review and approval processes for urgently needed foreign drugs, aiming to shorten the listing cycle for innovative drugs [8]. - As of early 2026, several significant drugs have been approved, setting a positive tone for the industry's development [9]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production - In 2025, a record 76 innovative drugs were approved for listing, with over one-third in the oncology treatment field, indicating a strong focus on cancer research [10]. - The majority of approved drugs were domestically developed, with a domestic rate of 85.53%, highlighting the strength of local innovation [12]. Group 5: Payment Innovations - A multi-tiered payment system has been established to address the "payment difficulty" that has historically hindered the development of innovative drugs in China [14]. - The new medical insurance directory includes 114 drugs, with an 88% success rate for inclusion, and 80% of innovative drugs entering the directory within two years of listing [16]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance directory for high-value innovative drugs enhances patient access and secures profitability for companies [16]. Group 6: International Expansion - The overseas market for Chinese innovative drugs has seen explosive growth, with total overseas authorization transaction amounts reaching 1356.55 billion USD in 2025, significantly up from 519 billion USD in 2024 [17]. - The focus on antibody drugs and ADCs has attracted attention from overseas pharmaceutical companies, with a shift towards later-stage clinical authorizations [17]. - The growth in overseas business not only provides substantial upfront payments but also benefits the entire industry chain, including contract research organizations (CROs) [17][18].

Group 1: Overseas Social Services - The investment rating for the overseas social services sector is positive, with a focus on Macau's gaming revenue maintaining double-digit growth and record visitor numbers during New Year's [1][4]. - In December, Macau's gross gaming revenue reached 20.9 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and recovering to 91% compared to the same period in 2019. The total gross gaming revenue is expected to grow by 9.1% in 2025 [4]. - The total number of visitors to Macau in 2025 is projected to be 40.06 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, marking a historical high. On New Year's Day 2026, the number of visitors reached 188,000, the highest ever for that day [4]. Group 2: Overseas Pharmaceuticals - The investment rating for the overseas pharmaceuticals sector is also positive, with significant developments in drug approvals and clinical trials [2][7]. - BeiGene's BCL2 inhibitor received conditional approval in China for treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia and mantle cell lymphoma, marking it as the first and only BCL2 inhibitor approved for MCL in the country [8][9]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 11.15%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 9.12 percentage points, indicating strong market performance [7]. Group 3: Overseas Education - The investment rating for the overseas education sector is favorable, with a focus on vocational education and training [3][14]. - The education index increased by 2.7%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.3 percentage points, indicating a positive market trend [14]. - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, which is expected to see enrollment growth due to strategic adjustments in response to market demand [16].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new basic medical insurance directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory starting January 1, 2026, will enhance the accessibility and affordability of innovative treatments like Baihe An (Zanidatamab) for patients with HER2-positive biliary tract cancer (BTC) [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Approval and Clinical Value - Zanidatamab is the first and only dual-specific antibody approved in China for targeting HER2 in high-expressing BTC, highlighting its unique clinical value [1][4]. - The drug has shown a 51.6% objective response rate (ORR) in previously treated, unresectable HER2-positive advanced or metastatic BTC patients, with a median overall survival (mOS) of 18.1 months [4]. Group 2: Insurance Coverage and Patient Access - The drug is covered under various "Hui Min Bao" commercial supplementary medical insurance projects across multiple regions, allowing eligible patients to receive significant reimbursement for treatment costs [2]. - The combination of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory and "Hui Min Bao" is expected to significantly improve the accessibility and affordability of this innovative drug for more patients [2]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Future Developments - The company aims to address the unmet medical needs in advanced BTC treatment, which has limited options and poor prognosis, by providing innovative therapies that enhance patient quality of life [4][8]. - Zanidatamab is also being developed for other gastrointestinal tumors, including HER2-positive metastatic gastric and colorectal cancers, indicating its potential for broader applications in oncology [5][6].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) will launch six new stock options on January 19, 2026, expanding the stock options market and providing investors with more choices [2] - The new stock options will include Zijin Mining International (02259), WuXi AppTec (02359), BeiGene (06160), Lao Poo Gold (06181), Horizon Robotics (09660), and CanSino Biologics (09926) [2] - The average daily trading volume of the derivatives market at HKEX reached a record high of 1,662,751 contracts last year, representing a 7% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2 - Stock options, including monthly and weekly expiry contracts, were among the most actively traded products, with an average daily trading volume of 879,831 contracts, marking a 22% year-on-year increase [2] - The new stock options will have varying contract sizes, such as 200 shares for Zijin Mining International and BeiGene, and 500 shares for WuXi AppTec [3] - The launch will include contracts for multiple months in 2026, specifically January, February, March, April, June, September, and December for certain stocks [3]