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金十数据6月10日讯，6月10日，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举行。申万宏源研究A股策略 首席分析师傅静涛表示，2025年四季度预期中期基本面改善，加上居民增配权益资产，A股市场中枢有 望抬升。2026年开始，供需格局改善线索增加。"A股市场具备演绎向上行情的潜力，居民提升权益资 产配置比例的趋势不必怀疑。"傅静涛表示，2025年是存款到期再配置高峰期，A股投融资功能建设各 有侧重，一体两面。同时，A股可能处于盈利能力长期抬升的起点。 （中证金牛座） 申万宏源傅静涛：四季度A股市场中枢有望抬升 ...

金十数据6月10日讯，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举行。申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟 表示，2025年下半年，支撑经济运行的主要宏观指标在结构上或迎来"强弱转换"。前期表现较弱的服务 业投资和消费，上半年已出现积极改善。下半年政策有望进一步加码，服务业修复有望适度对冲制造业 压力。"加大服务业支持力度或将是经济破局的重要切入点。" 赵伟表示，服务业已是最大的就业吸纳 方向，未来政策或聚焦服务业对外、对内开放，增加优质服务供给，同时加大支持力度、释放需求潜 力。 （中证金牛座） 申万宏源证券赵伟：下半年服务业支持政策有望进一步加码 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Capital Market Summer Strategy Conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the transition to high-quality economic development in China, focusing on technology innovation, industrial upgrading, and green transformation [1] - The conference featured discussions on various investment strategies and macroeconomic trends, with participation from nearly 500 listed company executives and over 2,200 investors [1] Macroeconomic Perspective - The policy framework for the new transformation phase is taking shape, emphasizing high-quality development and sustainable practices, with a shift from investment-driven to people-centered approaches [2] - New consumption trends, such as experiential and self-care spending, are emerging, indicating a shift in consumer confidence and preferences towards services [2] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market shows potential for a bull market, driven by increased equity allocation from residents and a peak in asset reallocation expected in 2025 [3] - Improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns are anticipated to enhance A-share returns, with a significant supply clearing cycle on the horizon [3] - Key investment opportunities identified include AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries, with a focus on high-cost performance themes in a volatile market [3] Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to lead in a potential bull market, serving as a crucial link in China's financial external circulation [4] - The trend of A-share representative assets listing in Hong Kong is becoming more common, with Hong Kong's internet sector positioned as a leader in the domestic AI industry [4] - High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in Hong Kong are attracting insurance capital, while the market is seen as a convergence point for domestic and foreign investments [4] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to exhibit two characteristics in the second half of the year: a return to pricing anchors and favorable conditions for testing the market from June to August [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current global political and economic landscape is undergoing significant changes, with the rise of new technologies and shifts in trade policies impacting investment strategies and market dynamics [3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The introduction of reciprocal tariff policies by the U.S. has accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains, leading to increased volatility in financial markets [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below 100, while safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin have reached historical highs [5]. - There is a noticeable shift in international capital flows from the U.S. to other markets, with Germany and Hong Kong being key beneficiaries, as evidenced by the Hang Seng Tech Index's over 20% increase since the beginning of the year [5]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Policy - China's GDP growth rate averaged 4.7% from 2021 to 2024, and the government is focused on maintaining stable economic growth as it transitions from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [6]. - In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, with signs of stabilization in the real estate market and a reduction in debt risks [6]. - Foreign investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and recommended an "overweight" position in the Chinese stock market [6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - China is a key player in the current global technological revolution, with significant advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and renewable energy [7]. - The country has increased its R&D spending, aiming for 2.68% of GDP by 2024, and leads the world in patent applications in AI and renewable energy [7]. - The rise of Chinese tech companies has contributed to the stability and strength of the A-share market, positioning them as vital components of the capital market [7].

申万宏源主要观点如下： 自2023年末银行股估值再度新低以来，银行板块实现一轮超出部分投资者预期的修复行情 可以看到的是，2024年以来板块上涨、多家银行股价创新高，估值预期修复是主因(累计上涨55%，其 中估值修复约43%，盈利增长贡献9%)，其背后，始于"中特估"，成于"高股息"，但更本质是银行配置 价值与依然偏低的估值之间的显著错配。 但随之而来的另一个问题是，既然银行已经实现显著超额收益，投资者是否已经充分享受到银行股 的"上涨红利" 与银行板块持续上涨相背离的是，主动型基金产品长期明显低配银行，很多投资者也一直存在"银行股 很难获取收益"的思维。但一个客观事实是，长期持有银行股的投资回报是可观的，但市场往往将"成 长"和"价值"对立且可能沉溺于存量博弈，过去经济上行周期这种思维曾带来可观投资收益，但也使其 选择性忽视了当经济处于转型的平台期时，业绩稳定远比一味追求成长要重要得多。这是2023年以来主 动基金踏空银行且仍显著欠配的主要原因。 申万宏源发布研报称，自2023年末银行股估值再度新低以来，银行板块实现一轮超出部分投资者预期的 修复行情。客观事实是，长期持有银行股的投资回报是可观的。该行建议拥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share IPO market has shown signs of recovery in 2025 after a prolonged downturn in 2024, with both the number of IPOs and the amount raised increasing compared to the previous year [2][3][6]. A-share IPO Market Recovery - In 2025, the A-share equity financing market has maintained a steady issuance pace, with a total fundraising of 214.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.1% [3]. - As of June 8, 2025, 45 A-share companies have been sponsored for IPOs, marking a 12.5% increase from the previous year, with total fundraising amounting to 33.655 billion yuan, up approximately 19% [3]. - The provinces with the highest number of IPOs include Zhejiang and Jiangsu, each with 10 IPOs, and Guangdong with 9 [3]. Leading Brokers in A-share IPOs - The top three brokers in A-share IPO underwriting for 2025 are CITIC Securities, Huatai United Securities, and CITIC Jin Investment, with underwriting amounts of 7.918 billion yuan, 3.034 billion yuan, and 2.674 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - A total of 23 brokers have participated in A-share IPOs this year, with four brokers exceeding 200 million yuan in underwriting income [4]. Hong Kong IPO Market Surge - The Hong Kong IPO market has experienced a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of over 700% in fundraising during the first five months of 2025 [2][7]. - Analysts expect that the robust performance of the Hong Kong IPO market will contribute positively to the investment banking revenues of brokers [6][7]. - UBS anticipates that the Hong Kong IPO market's surge is driven by multiple factors, including policy optimization and changes in global economic conditions [7]. Participation of Chinese Brokers in Hong Kong IPOs - In the first five months of 2025, over half of the IPO underwriting in Hong Kong was conducted by Chinese brokers, with notable participation from CICC, Huatai International, and CITIC Securities [8]. - CICC has sponsored 8 companies, while Huatai International and other brokers have also shown significant involvement in the Hong Kong IPO market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Central Huijin has officially become the actual controller of eight companies, holding seven brokerage licenses, which strengthens its position in the financial sector and raises expectations for potential consolidation among brokerages [1][6]. Group 1: Central Huijin's Control and Licenses - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved Central Huijin to become the actual controller of eight companies, including Changcheng Guorui Securities and Dongxing Securities [1][2]. - With the addition of these eight companies, Central Huijin now controls a total of seven brokerage licenses, including those of Galaxy Securities, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), and others [1][5]. Group 2: Financial Asset Management Companies (AMCs) - In February, the Ministry of Finance transferred the equity of three major AMCs—China Cinda, China Great Wall, and China Orient—to Central Huijin, making it the controlling shareholder of these companies [1][5]. - This transfer aims to enhance the risk management capabilities of state-owned financial institutions as part of national institutional reforms [1][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - As of 2024, the total assets of major brokerages under Central Huijin include Galaxy Securities at 737.47 billion, Shenyin Wanguo at 697.60 billion, and CICC at 674.72 billion, among others, with the total asset scale of the brokerage sector approaching 3.2 trillion [5][6]. - The combined net profit of the seven brokerages reached 34.18 billion, with Galaxy Securities contributing 10.13 billion and CICC 7.22 billion, indicating a strong financial performance [6]. - Central Huijin's scale and profitability position it as a dominant player in the brokerage industry, with total assets nearly double that of CITIC Securities and net profits 1.6 times higher [6]. Group 4: Market Expectations for Consolidation - The increase in brokerage licenses under Central Huijin has heightened market expectations for potential mergers among brokerages, including speculation about mergers involving CICC, Galaxy Securities, and several AMC-affiliated brokerages [6].

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Li New Energy Co., Ltd. is planning to issue stocks to specific investors and list on the main board, with the underwriting and sponsorship provided by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities [1][6]. Group 1: Issuer Information - The issuer, Xinjiang Li New Energy Co., Ltd., is located in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and was registered in August 2013 [3]. - The company specializes in clean energy development, including wind, solar, hydro, natural gas, and geothermal energy [3]. - The total share capital of the company is 933,333,334 shares, with a significant portion held by state-owned entities [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 97,067.85 million yuan for 2024, a slight decrease from 98,976.86 million yuan in 2023 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 4,931.16 million yuan, down from 13,555.53 million yuan in 2023 [5]. - The company has maintained a cash dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.17 yuan per share for 2024 [4]. Group 3: Issuance Details - The stock issuance will target no more than 35 specific investors, with a total fundraising amount not exceeding 182,925.47 million yuan [10][12]. - The issuance price will be set at no less than 80% of the average trading price over the 20 trading days prior to the pricing date [10][11]. - The stock will have a lock-up period of 36 months for major shareholders and 6 months for other investors [12][13]. Group 4: Regulatory Compliance - The company has complied with the necessary legal and regulatory requirements for the stock issuance, including the Company Law and Securities Law [8][9]. - The decision-making process for the issuance has been properly executed through board and shareholder meetings [7][8]. - The underwriting institution has conducted thorough due diligence and confirmed the authenticity and completeness of the issuance documents [6][9].

Group 1 - The global ready-to-drink beverage industry is entering a rapid growth phase, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2023 to 2028, and the market size expected to exceed $1.1 trillion by 2028 [1] - The market size of the global ready-to-drink beverage industry, measured by end retail sales, increased from $598.9 billion in 2018 to $779.1 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 5.4% [1] - The share of ready-to-drink beverages in the global beverage market rose from 43.7% in 2018 to 45.7% in 2023, with expectations to further increase to 48.0% by 2028, driven by rising health awareness, personalized demands, brand innovation, social media influence, and enhanced digital experiences [1] Group 2 - China and Southeast Asia are key growth regions for the global ready-to-drink beverage industry, contributing significantly to the projected $324.8 billion market size increase from 2023 to 2028, with China expected to contribute $91.7 billion and Southeast Asia $53.6 billion [2] - The CAGR for the ready-to-drink beverage industry in China and Southeast Asia is projected at 17.6% and 19.8%, respectively, significantly higher than the global average of 7.2% [2] - In 2023, per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China and Southeast Asia is 22 cups and 16 cups per year, respectively, which is substantially lower than over 300 cups in the US and EU, indicating significant growth potential as consumption levels are expected to rise to 51 cups and 36 cups by 2028 [2]