智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，五一假期出行超预期以及节后量价进一步稳定，体现航司销 售模式变化已有成效。油价进一步下行释放航司成本压力，在航空供应链恢复受限、宽体机利用率提升 等变化下，航空供给逻辑已有多方面验证，内需复苏下航空需求侧有望触底提升，加速顺周期行情启 动。航空市场正稳步迈入旺季阶段，从今年市场的供需结构来看，市场供给增长受限，旅客量自然增长 的核心逻辑不变，若后续国内航司票价回暖，将持续验证支撑航司收益提升逻辑。 该行继续推荐关注航空板块，供给放缓确定性强，需求端具备弹性，同时在外部油价变化配合下航司能 够释放较大业绩提升空间。关注全球飞机租赁公司、航空发动机及维修厂商、关注业绩持续修复的机场 板块。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 需求景气度回升，量价协同放大收益 上半年整体呈现量升价减趋势，五月价格同比出现拐点。24年Q2后市场量价基数均有所降低，航司销 售模式有所转变，量价表现逐步好转且稳定。跨境运力恢复下票价持续常态化，同时宽体机利用率明显 提升。今年以来外交部持续试行多项外国旅客单向免签政策，入境游表现强劲。 从量变到质变，需求增长将逐步兑现至价格端。今年以来客座率仍处高位且已达到历 ...

Core Insights - The conference focused on the intersection of technology and finance, highlighting the transformative impact of AI on traditional financial operations and the investment landscape [1][2] - Experts from various sectors discussed topics such as technology finance, asset allocation, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, new productive forces, C-REITs, and the application of AI models [1][4][5] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference was organized by Shenwan Hongyuan's Financial Innovation Headquarters and featured four keynote speeches and two roundtable discussions [1] - The event attracted a diverse audience, including experts from academia, technology, government funds, and mainstream financial institutions, providing valuable investment insights [1][7] Group 2: Keynote Presentations - The first keynote by Gao Hao from Tsinghua University discussed the opportunities presented by Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and family businesses [4] - Wang Xi from Shanghai Guotou Xian Dao Fund emphasized the importance of early-stage investments in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and AI to support technological innovation [5] - Li Yaoguang from CICC presented on the development and opportunities within the C-REITs market, focusing on asset management strategies [5] - Zhang Zhijun from JD Technology shared insights on the application of AI models in various financial business scenarios, enhancing digital transformation [5] Group 3: Roundtable Discussions - The roundtable discussions featured prominent guests from public funds, bank wealth management, trusts, insurance, private equity, and foreign capital, sharing their perspectives on asset allocation strategies and structured product investment opportunities [7] - The discussions highlighted a consensus among participants regarding current investment topics, indicating a strong alignment of views within the investment community [7] Group 4: Future Directions - Shenwan Hongyuan's Financial Innovation Headquarters aims to continue serving national strategies and the real economy, focusing on digital transformation and enhancing comprehensive financial services [7] - The organization seeks to leverage its experience and professionalism to provide high-quality products and efficient services, contributing to the goal of a financially strong nation and technological self-reliance [7]

6月10日，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举办。 在赛道布局上，"科技尚未摆脱中期调整波段。本轮调整，主要源自国内AI（人工智能）应用催化 偏慢 +算力投资中期展望仍有不确定性。"傅静涛认为，科技行情的演绎，可能分布在未来数年中。下 一轮中级别上涨行情，可能需要基础层突破催化。值得注意的是，国内AI、具身智能、国防军工都具 备成为结构牛核心产业趋势的潜力。在重磅产业趋势突破前，科技也是震荡市，重点关注高性价比区域 的主题机会。一二级市场联动拐点已现，一级市场创投融资保持强势的方向包括：软件和信息、硬件技 术，AI相关的数据中心、自动驾驶、机器人。 "但依然对消费扩散行情保持谨慎。明显的新消费赚钱效应扩散，往往是行情短期休整的信号。"傅 静涛提醒道，新消费中的珠宝首饰、IP潮玩、新零食饮品、美妆个护等细分龙头仍在各自的景气趋势叙 事中，这个阶段的行情能够维持高举高打。医药（CXO 和创新药）和贵金属等稀缺景气方向演绎逻辑 类似。 申万宏源证券执委会成员、研究所董事长周海晨致辞表示，当前我们正处在新一轮全球科技革命的 新起点。近年来以人工智能、量子计算、生物技术、新能源等为代表的前沿领域不断取得突破，科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance pressure in Q2 is limited, with expectations for improved new business performance and further reductions in the cost of new liabilities due to anticipated interest rate cuts in Q3 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Fund Flows - A-share listed insurance companies are significantly underrepresented compared to the CSI 300 index, with public fund regulations expected to drive incremental capital inflows [1] - As of the end of Q1, the allocation of equity funds in the non-bank sector is underweight by 9.68% compared to the CSI 300 index, second only to banks [1] Group 2: New Liability Costs and Product Transformation - The cost of new liabilities has decreased significantly, with some insurance companies optimizing their existing liability costs [2] - The NBV (New Business Value) and VIF (Value of In-Force) yield performances for major insurers show a year-on-year decline, indicating effective risk management of interest spread losses [2] - The transformation of participating insurance products has exceeded expectations, with major insurers elevating this strategy to a strategic level [3] Group 3: Insurance Capital Market Participation - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market participation highlights the role of insurance capital as a key player, with sustainable growth in insurance fund utilization expected [4] - The upper limit for equity allocation for insurance capital has been unexpectedly relaxed, allowing for a total equity allocation scale of 9.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 505.5 billion yuan from previous regulations [4] - The reduction of investment risk factors for stock investments further opens up the equity allocation limits for insurance capital [4]

申万宏源方面表示，一方面希望为监管部门与市场机构的交流创造更开放、更自由的对话平台，另一方 面也希望通过思想碰撞形成一些能切实提振资本市场活力的建议举措，持续推进中国特色现代资本市场 高质量发展。 周海晨：当前正处于三大关键时点 申万宏源证券执委会成员、研究所董事长周海晨致辞表示，当前正处在全球政治经济格局重塑的关键时 点，"十四五"规划收官和"十五五"规划制定的重要衔接点，新一轮全球科技革命的新起点。 21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 北京报道 6月10日，申万宏源（000166.SZ）2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举办。近500家上市公司高管与2200 余名投资者齐聚一堂，会议期间将开展700余场线下交流。 申万宏源证券执委会成员、申万宏源研究董事长周海晨在主论坛致开幕辞，申万宏源研究总经理王胜主 持主论坛，公司各事业部、相关业务条线负责人参会交流。 本次会议以"沧海横流方显英雄本色"为主题，设置了1场主论坛及12个分论坛，涵盖资产配置、人工智 能与芯片国产化、金融创新专场、投行赋能硬核科技、能源与材料、金融地产、高端制造、逆全球化下 的中国机遇、新消费、量化主题、港股等市场关注焦点。 在赵伟看来，外部冲击 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the economic transformation in China has entered a new phase, characterized by a decline in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, and a shift towards new consumption patterns and service-oriented growth [3][4] - The conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan brought together executives from nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest and engagement in the capital markets [1] - The chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan, Zhao Wei, highlighted that the traditional policy framework is becoming less effective, necessitating a comprehensive policy innovation to support the new economic phase [3] Group 2 - Zhao Wei noted that new consumption forms, such as self-care and experiential consumption, have emerged significantly over the past two years, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3] - The economic indicators suggest a "bottoming out" of short-term consumer confidence, with a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption approaching [3] - The focus of economic policy is expected to shift from "investment-driven" to "people-oriented" by the end of 2024, with an emphasis on supporting the service sector as a key area for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to undergo a "strong-weak transition" in the second half of 2025, with manufacturing facing potential downward pressure while service sector investments and consumption show signs of improvement [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to play a significant role in the structural reforms of the supply side, aiming for broader and more coordinated economic adjustments [4] - Increased support for the service sector is seen as a crucial strategy to mitigate pressures from the manufacturing sector and to unleash demand potential [4]

当前市场尚未鸣响"发令枪"。"枪响起跑"需择时。傅静涛分析称，供给侧改善线索明确，但中期需求侧 影响因素纷繁复杂。强改善依赖需求，弱改善可以依赖 2026 年供给出清。科技尚未摆脱中期调整波 段。应用突破依赖于基础层技术突破，科技上行周期可能演绎数年时间。新消费是独立的产业趋势。但 新消费高景气只是中国经济转向消费驱动的一小步。中国经济转型预期发酵只能循序渐进。 对于本轮市场行情，傅静涛表示，25Q2-Q3A股总体处于震荡区间内是大概率，不宜轻言突破。等待各 项条件成熟，启动更大级别行情。本轮潜在牛市更可能演绎成首个"中国版慢牛"。首先，基本面改善弹 性弱，但持续时间长，可供乐观预期酝酿的时间更充分。其次，本轮潜在牛市，势必会有更高的价值属 性。再次，能够调控增量资金正循环速度的力量明显增强：公募高质量发展，中央汇金发挥类平准基金 功能。 傅静涛称，时间已经是市场的朋友，2026年行情将好于2025年，牛市主要区间在 2026-27年。2026 年开 始供需格局改善的线索增加，市场赚钱效应有望进一步累积。他表示，25Q4 预期中期基本面改善 + 居 民增配权益初露峥嵘，市场中枢有望抬升，市场可能进入"发令枪响 ...

6月10日，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举办。申万宏源证券执委会成员、申万宏源研究董 事长周海晨在主论坛致开幕辞，申万宏源研究总经理王胜主持主论坛，公司各事业部、相关业务条线负 责人参会交流。近500家上市公司高管与2200余名投资者齐聚一堂，会议期间将进行700余场线下交流。 申万宏源研究债券首席分析师黄伟平进行演讲。黄伟平表示，与2024年的单边牛市不同，2025年债券已 经进入"低利率+利利差+高波动"的状态，需要告别单边牛市思维。 下半年流动性方面，黄伟平表示可以关注两个重点。关注央行买债何时恢复，买债节奏可能会和供给节 奏相匹配。下半年国债净供给高峰通常高于上半年，同时，同等规模看待，央行买入国债的效力实质上 强于降准，前者是既减少供给，又增加流动性，后者是供给不变，仅增加流动性，以国债买入的恢复用 于下半年货币财政配合，或更加匹配。因此，国债买入的恢复或已渐行渐近，且年内第二波净供给高峰 之时，买债力度可能较为可观。 具体到机会方面，黄伟平称，节奏上6-8月份是不错的做多窗口，实体融资需求回落叠加央行可能恢复 国债买入，但全年要告别单边牛市思维、站在高波动的震荡市角度看市场。中长端已经 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The rise of technology is stabilizing and strengthening the capital market, significantly impacting financial investments [1][2] - Service sector investment and consumption have shown positive improvement in the first half of the year, with further policy support expected in the second half [1][2] - The macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to undergo a "strong-weak conversion" in the second half of 2025, with service sector recovery potentially offsetting manufacturing pressures [2][3] Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - Since September 2024, a comprehensive optimization of the policy framework has been initiated, enhancing the targeting of structural policies [2] - The new phase of supply-side reform is emerging, focusing on high-quality development and sustainable long-term growth [2] - The emphasis is shifting from "investment-driven" to "people-oriented" approaches in policy implementation [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A-share market is expected to see an upward adjustment in return levels, supported by improved fundamentals and increased allocation of equity assets by residents [4] - Key investment themes include AI and embodied intelligence, which are poised to become core industry trends [4] - High-quality investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as software and information services, hardware technology, and AI-related fields [4]

6月10日，申万宏源2025资本市场夏季策略会在北京举行。会上，申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、申万宏 源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛分别分享了宏观和市场方面的最新观点。 赵伟认为，中国经济的转型已经进入新阶段。2024年9月底以来，政策框架全面优化启动，总量政策空 间打开、结构性政策的针对性增强，新阶段的"供给侧改革"呼之欲出。 在赵伟看来，产业蜕变已成"星火燎原"之势，居民信心筑底现象已现。历经十余年，新动能占比已"初 具规模"，高技术产业在工业中的占比达16.3%。同时，近两年悦己消费、体验消费等新消费形式不断 涌现。2025年以来，居民节假日出行意愿等指标显示居民短周期信心已形成"筑底"，长期偏好向服务转 型的阶段也在临近。 赵伟表示，2025年下半年可关注"反内卷""服务业"等关键词。"反内卷"或是转型新阶段的"供给侧结构 性改革"，站位更高、涉及面更广、协同性更强。他称，服务业可消纳转型过程中的结构性就业压力， 且存在严重供给不足，加大服务业支持力度或将是经济破局的重要切入点。服务业已是最大的就业吸纳 方向，但近几年供给不足、供需匹配问题等较为突出。未来，政策或聚焦于服务业对外、对内开放，通 过增加优质 ...