Group 1: 15th Five-Year Plan Outlook - The primary direction for industrial structure adjustment during the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with continued support for technological innovation [1] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with new product development and pricing models emerging in core cities [1] - The home appliance industry will focus on smart, green, and globalized policies, aligning with future manufacturing directions [1] - The construction industry will emphasize overseas expansion and smart construction [1] - The importance of strategic resources will increase, benefiting the prices of non-ferrous metals [1] - Cement and glass industries will face strict capacity controls, focusing on profit recovery rather than just revenue [1] - The chemical industry will see a shift towards replacing outdated capacity, with a positive outlook for chemical exports [1] - The new energy sector is expected to experience favorable supply-demand dynamics, with significant growth in wind and solar power installations [1] - The coal industry will see increased resource scarcity and improved performance as prices rise [1] - The technology sector will benefit from government subsidies for AI capabilities and applications [1] - The cultural industry may see relaxed regulations for overseas expansion, positively impacting supply-side recovery [1] Group 2: AI and Computing Sector Insights - Breakthroughs in computing power and AI applications are expected to lead to a surge in the sector by 2026, with companies achieving over 10% revenue from AI [2] - Despite short-term pressures from subsidy reductions, long-term support for domestic semiconductor replacements remains strong [2] - The internet and cloud computing sectors are experiencing a positive cycle of investment and operational efficiency, with a focus on global entertainment and self-consumption [2] - The telecommunications sector is concentrating on 6G and satellite internet development, with opportunities in the IDC supply chain [2] - E-commerce is currently in a phase of competition for existing market share, but AI products are expected to offset negative impacts from subsidy reductions [2] Group 3: Q3 Earnings Outlook - The reduction in national subsidies is expected to pressure earnings in light industry, consumer electronics, and home appliances [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in Q3 earnings due to rising domestic metal prices [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is not expected to face severe impacts from tariff policies, contrary to some investor fears [3] - The agricultural sector is projected to see weak growth, particularly in pig prices, through Q1 2026 [3] - The light industry is under pressure from both overseas demand and domestic subsidy reductions, leading to continued earnings challenges [3] - The consumer electronics sector may experience marginal declines in growth following subsidy cuts [3] - The chemical industry is expected to achieve stable growth, with a target of over 5% annual increase in value added by 2025-2026 [3] - The food and beverage sector is facing weak demand, but market expectations are low, which may provide some support [3] - The military industry is projected to see overall revenue and earnings growth, with ongoing attention to the 15th Five-Year Plan's impact [3]

TapTap的成长驱动 国内版号提升、自研进步+PC端及海外，长期看AI平权。当前TapTap开发者-用户的飞轮效应已经形 成：TapTap目前已入驻开发者24万+，上线游戏30万+;25H1中国版APP平均MAU达43.6百万，25H1用户 广告ARPUYoY+37%。增长驱动：1)25年1-9月版号总计1195个，同比增长25%，更多产品上线提升推广 需求。2)心动自研游戏进步利好TapTap平台价值提升(独家产品吸引用户，同时形成对其他开发者的示 范效应)，同时TapTap反哺自研游戏。3)TapTap积极战略拓展多端化与国际版。4)AI赋能游戏开发，实现 创作平权，内容供给侧繁荣利好TapTap。该行测算2030年TapTap广告量价齐升后收入规模有望达到50 亿。 心动自研游戏能力体系逐步验证 1)24年以来产品周期上行验证前期研发调整思路正确：22年后公司战略层面果断收缩版图、降本增效， 产品研发公司聚焦自身强势品类，优中选优。黄希威回归担任海外发行负责人，走通全球发行，海外持 续贡献增量。《火炬之光》《麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》持续验证战略正确。2)《小镇》《火炬》验 证开发长青游戏的能力：资源 ...

9月29日，申万宏源涨5.03%，截至发稿，报5.43元/股，成交8.35亿元，换手率0.70%，总市值1359.67亿 元。 资料显示，申万宏源集团股份有限公司位于新疆乌鲁木齐市高新区北京南路358号大成国际大厦20楼 2001室,北京市西城区太平桥大街19号,香港湾仔皇后大道东248号大新金融中心40楼，成立日期1996年9 月16日，上市日期2015年1月26日，公司主营业务涉及金融投资、股权投资等。 从基金十大重仓股角度 建信中证全指证券公司ETF（515560）基金经理为龚佳佳。 截至发稿，龚佳佳累计任职时间6年222天，现任基金资产总规模6.06亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 44.21%， 任职期间最差基金回报-53.01%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，建信基金旗下1只基金重仓申万宏源。建信中证全指证券公司ETF（515560）二季度减持 12.39万股，持有股数102.23万股，占基金净值比例为2.34%，位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chinese brokerage stocks in the Hong Kong market have surged significantly, driven by the central bank's announcement of a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - Huatai Securities saw a nearly 18% increase, while Citic Securities and GF Securities rose over 14% [1][2] - Other notable gains include Dongfang Securities and Zhongzhou Securities, both up over 12%, and China Galaxy, CICC, Guolian Minsheng, and Xingsheng International, all rising over 10% [1][2] Group 2 - The central bank's meeting emphasized the need to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [1] - The policy aims to effectively utilize securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and refinancing [1]

资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2752.59万元，特大单买入5760.11万元，占比13.74%，卖出2790.69万 元，占比6.65%；大单买入1.18亿元，占比28.13%，卖出1.20亿元，占比28.65%。 9月29日，申万宏源盘中上涨2.13%，截至13:25，报5.28元/股，成交4.19亿元，换手率0.36%，总市值 1322.11亿元。 申万宏源所属申万行业为：非银金融-证券Ⅱ-证券Ⅲ。所属概念板块包括：参股基金、期货概念、证金 汇金、低价、融资融券等。 截至6月30日，申万宏源股东户数22.73万，较上期减少3.16%；人均流通股99180股，较上期增加 3.26%。2025年1月-6月，申万宏源实现营业收入0.00元；归母净利润42.84亿元，同比增长101.32%。 分红方面，申万宏源A股上市后累计派现172.30亿元。近三年，累计派现37.31亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，申万宏源十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第八大流 通股东，持股3.88亿股，相比上期减少1563.18万股。 申万宏源今年以来股价跌0.45%，近5个交易日涨1.73%，近20日跌2.58% ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with October A-shares likely entering a critical window period for risk appetite recovery [1][2][4] - Historical data suggests that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, with current valuations remaining reasonable and not overly stretched [1][3] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with opportunities for "high-low cut" strategies within this sector [6][7] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by factors such as the upward trend in margin financing and potential seasonal inflows from foreign capital [1][4][5] - The focus on cyclical industries is expected to yield better performance in the fourth quarter, with over 65% probability of these sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Areas with improving earnings or sustained high growth are projected to generate excess returns, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [7]

格隆汇9月28日｜申万宏源表示，A股调整后，"红十月"是大概率。10月又是一个关键的政策布局窗 口，调整兑现后，更有利于资本市场预期稳中有升。顺周期催化还需等待，需求侧重点看26年新一 轮"政策底"到"经济底"的推演，供给侧26年中供给出清。但25Q4顺周期催化相对乏善可陈。而科技产业 催化仍在趋势中，海外AI产业趋势向上，尚未触及边界，国内AI产业趋势同样在不断进步。当前本就 处于科技产业亮点不断增加的周期，9月调整周期以来，小级别的结构亮点不断。10月产业亮点和长期 政策布局共振，结构热度可能重新升温。此外，2026年春季可能是阶段性高点，大概率不是2026年全年 高点，更不是本轮全面牛市的高点。牛市还有纵深，随着时间的推移，全面牛市演绎的条件会越来越充 分。 ...

一、A股小级别调整波段未结束的判断正在验证。中期没有下行风险，短期调整也不是大级别。调整兑现后，"红十月"是大概率：长期政策布局期临近，科 技催化仍在延续，短期性价比调整可能很快到位。 三、后续结构展望：科技成长趋势性占优，科技内部高低切换效果好于成长价值之间的高低切换。后续有新催化的新增景气方向仍会有高弹性，已经累积一 定涨幅的科技板块(海外算力、创新药，储能、固态电池、特斯拉机器人，光刻机)，中期行情还有空间。反内卷是结构牛向全面牛转化的关键结构，是重要 的中期结构(光伏和化工)。港股中期展望不变，中期港股可能继续受益于"特朗普降息看涨期权"不断强化 + 新经济产业趋势发酵，港股龙头代表性强。 2026春季前，科技成长催化可能持续多于顺周期催化，看好科技成长趋势性占优。科技内部高切低、板块轮动是常态，但成长价值之间的高切低行情，很难 趋势性演绎。后续有新催化的新增景气方向，仍会有高弹性。而已经发酵了一定乐观预期的方向，中期仍有绝对收益空间，包括海外算力、创新药，储能、 固态电池、特斯拉机器人，光刻机，仍有产业趋势叙事发酵空间。 反内卷是中期结构牛向全面牛转化的关键结构。继续提示，反内卷终局重点关注全球市占 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan Research indicates that Zhongmin Resources' business primarily includes lithium salts, minor metals, and copper, and employs a segment valuation method to analyze the company's value [1] Summary by Sections - **Profit Forecast**: The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 445 million, 1.063 billion, and 1.733 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Growth Contribution**: Starting from 2026, new projects in minor metals and copper are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with the contributions to net profit from lithium salts, minor metals, and copper in 2026 estimated at approximately 177 million, 725 million, and 161 million yuan respectively [1] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is assigned price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28x for lithium salts, 41x for minor metals, and 14x for copper for the year 2026, leading to a target market value of 36.8 billion yuan for 2026 [1] - **Market Potential**: The target market value of 36.8 billion yuan represents a 17.36% upside potential compared to the current market value of 31.4 billion yuan, prompting a first-time coverage with an "overweight" rating for the company [1]

格隆汇9月28日｜申万宏源研究指出，紫光国微股权激励保障长期增长，把握公司成长新起点。公司拟 向核心高管、技术骨干共计466人授予1680万份股票期权（约占公司当前股本总额的1.98%）。该行分 析认为，本次股权激励覆盖人员规模庞大，渗透多业务条线核心骨干，有效调动公司团队积极性，同时 侧面反映公司人员结构高质量，股权激励有望进一步抬升人均创收，增强业绩增长动能。依据公司指 标，24-28 年公司净利润及扣非归母净利润CAGR 达25.7%，彰显公司对于未来几年的业绩增长信心。 叠加股权激励计划进一步调动员工积极性，公司收入有望步入高速增长期，各报告期摊销费用对于费用 端影响有限，公司业绩有望实现高增。考虑到公司产品性能优越，处于行业领军地位，多领域需求加速 释放，公司未来业绩有望实现快速增长，因此维持"买入"评级。 ...