图1：石河子市是"共和 专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者：申万宏源非金属建材团队 郝子禹 常年在外，心有牵挂，岁末寒冬，归心似箭。我在新疆石河子市长大，大学后久居上海，回家的机会越 来越少，每次回家都有不一样的感受。"不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中。"这些年忙忙碌碌去了许多 地方，过年回来才发现石河子如此特别。 石河子因兵团而特别，因军垦而特别。石河子坐落在新疆天山北麓，古尔班通古特沙漠边缘，距离首府 乌鲁木齐约200公里，被称作"戈壁明珠"。石河子是诗人艾青笔下"最年轻的城"。1950年王震将军率领 中国人民解放军第二十二兵团挺进石河子在此拉开屯垦戍边、艰苦创业的序幕。石河子市由军人选址、 军人规划、军人建设，是兵团建设的第一座城市，是"共和国军垦第一城"。 国军垦第一城"；资料来源：石河子市人民政府网，申万宏源研究 因地制宜，形成优势特色产业。石河子一二产已有所成就。兵团的选址与建设坚持不与民争利的原则， 大多选择在艰苦之地开拓发展，艰苦奋斗是石河子的城市底色。艰苦的背景条件下，石河子已形成了高 ...

2026年马年春节，我与家人选择温暖的滇南作为旅行的目的地。云南是中国民族种类最多的省份，25个 少数民族世代聚居，也是我国水能资源作为富集的区域之一，高原风能、太阳能资源得天独厚。丰富自 然景观、多元文化和民族特色赋予了云南无穷的魅力。春节假期期间，我从昆明出发自驾南下，途径普 洱至西双版纳。一路上我领略到滇南极致的文化多样性，感叹于名山大川带来的视觉震撼，陶醉在各族 人民共度佳节时街市上浓浓的烟火气息。同时，作为电力行业研究员，旅途中亲眼见证一块块有序铺设 的光伏板，一座座耸立的风电站，一条条穿梭山间的高压电线，绿色能源在云南高速发展的成果如此具 象化地展示在我面前，一瞬间年报及研报中提到的项目和装机数据便有了温度。今年春节之旅，我感触 最深的莫过于"风光"赋予云南的发展机遇，历史上美丽的"风光"景色吸引了无数人慕名而来，而如今丰 富的"风光"资源又成为保障能源供给，促进经济发展的强劲动能。 一、普洱：穿梭能源走廊 观绿色能源与绿水青山共同发展 大年初一，我们从"春城"昆明出发，昆磨高速是昆明至滇南的必经之路，道路两侧的电力设施密集得令 人瞩目。多条输电线路与高速公路并行延伸，铁塔银线在山间起伏。在驱车前 ...

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者：申万宏源宏观团队 王茂宇 "幸运之国"、"宜居"或许是多数人对澳大利亚的典型印象。2026年春节，笔者前往澳洲悉尼度春节，对 比本科留学时期的记忆，这一座城市发生了哪些变化？本文主要分享从游客视角观察到的澳洲文化、物 价、房价近况。 一、南半球年味不减，游人如潮 春节期间在悉尼旅游的第一感受是年味不减。年初四在悉尼著名华人区Burwood偶遇舞狮表演，路边也 随处可见农历春节的装饰挂幅。市中心Town Hall游人如织，2月正值南半球夏季，气候宜人。从历史数 据来看，澳大利亚每年的游客入境高峰在12月至次年2月，与夏季对应。2025年12月，澳洲短期访问入 境（旅游）达104万人次，创疫情以来新高。据亲身感受，到访悉尼的游客多来自于中国、韩国、美 国。 图表1：悉尼Burwood舞 狮 街景 图表2：悉尼Town Hall 二、过去几年，澳洲物价涨幅可观，与国内形成对比 澳洲作为旅游胜地，旅游体验自然不用多说。但根据笔者亲身感受，无论是餐饮还是日常购物，价格都 出现了 ...

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者：申万宏源研究零售社服团队 张蕴达 数贸中心不仅是一个新市场，更是义乌未来"1+3+N"发展战略的落地场景：据义乌发布和中国一带一路 网，"1"指布局1个高能级数贸港，其中包括数贸展示、数据交易、新品发布三个中心，真正实现用数据 和云服务赋能商品贸易；"3"指Chinagoods、义支付、智捷元港3个数贸平台，为全球贸易商提供一站式 贸易服务，并深度融合世界义乌AI商贸大模型，当前已推出小商AI设计、小商AI视创、AI视频翻译等 13项AI应用；"N"指构建N项数字赋能场景，加速数字科技与市场贸易深度融合，数字化赋能小商品贸 易全链路。 局；资料来源：义乌发布公众号，申万宏源研究 图1：《鸡毛飞上天》 暮色四合时，高铁穿过金衢盆地的薄霭，家乡义乌的灯火在远方次第亮起，像无数颗被点亮的星子散落 在浙中大地。工作后虽因各种原因频繁出差归家，却仍跟不上这片土地上的日新月异。义乌江水静静流 淌，耳畔不再是货郎担的摇铃声，而是国际商贸城永不落幕的喧嚣，是保税仓里机械臂的精准律动， ...

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者：申万宏源宏观团队 贾东旭 对我而言，每年的"回乡见闻"往往是我们观察中国经济微观毛细血管的重要窗口。今年丙午马年春节， 由于自身行程安排，我并未返回家乡河北石家庄，而是选择留在上海过年。虽然地理位置并未发生重大 的空间转移，但作为一名"异乡客"在沪度过长假，反而让我对当下的消费结构演变，特别是居民对服务 消费的旺盛需求，有了更为深刻且直观的感受。 从宏观经济的宏大叙事来看，我们正处于一个技术变革的临界点。人工智能（AI）和人形机器人技术 的飞速迭代，正在推动工业制造和基础认知领域生产力的指数级跃升。然而，生产力的快速提升与居民 就业之间，或将出现阶段性、结构性矛盾：当机器不断替代各类标准化劳动岗位时，我们应如何更好地 落实就业优先战略？ 结合今年春节我在上海的所见所闻，我认为答案已逐渐清晰：服务消费，特别是那些能够提供情绪价 值、人与人之间深度接触与交流的活动，不仅是未来经济增长的核心驱动力之一，更是吸纳就业、缓解 这一结构性问题的关键出路。 一、跨越时空的物流服务： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the economic landscape of Guigang, particularly due to the opening of the Pinglu Canal and the influence of AI on daily life, highlighting the city's strategic position and emerging industries [1][3][8]. Group 1: Pinglu Canal and Economic Impact - The Pinglu Canal is a key infrastructure project that will reshape the shipping landscape in Southwest China, expected to be completed by the end of 2026, allowing 5,000-ton vessels to navigate [3][18]. - The canal will reduce shipping distances by over 560 kilometers, saving more than 5.2 billion yuan in annual shipping costs, fundamentally changing the export dynamics of the region [3][18]. - Guigang is positioned as a core city in the Pinglu Canal economic belt, enhancing its role as a transportation hub and facilitating the development of local industries [5][20]. Group 2: Local Economic Activity and AI Influence - The local economy in Guigang has become more vibrant, with increased public activity during the Spring Festival, reflecting a resurgence in consumer engagement [8][23]. - AI applications are becoming prevalent in daily life, influencing consumer habits and advertising strategies, with significant competition among AI service providers [12][28]. - The integration of AI into various sectors is expected to reshape the internet traffic distribution and enterprise software landscape, marking a transformative period for technology companies [12][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving economic landscape of Funing, Jiangsu, highlighting changes in population dynamics, consumer behavior, and the local economy during the Spring Festival period. Group 1: Population Dynamics - Funing is transitioning from a traditional labor-exporting county to a region with bidirectional population flow, with more young people settling in major cities and bringing their families to celebrate the New Year with them [2] - The decrease in returning visitors during the Spring Festival is attributed to this shift in family dynamics rather than a decline in population attraction [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The consumer market in Funing has seen a notable increase in service prices during the Spring Festival, with demand remaining strong, indicating a "price increase and volume rise" scenario [6] - Specific examples include KTV prices nearing 800 yuan for two hours, cinema tickets ranging from 60 to 80 yuan, and an increase in average spending at hotpot restaurants from around 50 yuan to 80 yuan [6][9] - The rise in prices is linked to a combination of limited supply in high-quality entertainment options and a surge in demand from both local residents and returning visitors [9] Group 3: Tourism and Cultural Development - Funing aims to enhance its tourism sector with the development of the金沙湖 National Tourism Resort, but actual visitor numbers during the Spring Festival were lower than expected compared to local attractions [13] - The preference for local, interactive, and low-cost leisure activities over standardized tourist attractions indicates a mismatch between product offerings and consumer demand [13] - The article suggests that the key to successful tourism development lies in leveraging existing resources and creating engaging local experiences rather than solely focusing on high-end projects [16]

专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者：申万宏源研究家电首席分析师 刘正 2026年2月21日 农历丙午年正月初五 于安徽滁州 当沪漂的身份切换回游子，当研报里的宏观数据变成眼前的真实场景，每一次春节返乡，对我而言都是 一次最生动的"草根考察"。我的家乡在安徽省滁州市，素有"金陵锁钥、江淮保障"之称，因欧阳修的 《醉翁亭记》而名扬天下，每次给别人介绍我的家乡，我都以骄傲地背诵出"醉翁之意不在酒，在乎山 水之间也"的诗句开始，来介绍我的家乡。在外人看来，它是南京都市圈和合肥都市圈的"双圈明星"； 在我们本地人眼中，它是既有千年文脉又有烟火气息的皖东重镇。今年春节归来，有两个地方让我感触 最深：一个是承载着这座城市文化底蕴的"亭"，一个是蕴藏着民间消费韧性的"市"。 一、 千年文脉的"新活法"：从"醉翁之意"到"古城春联" 二、 狗市里的"烟火经济学"：7万人的信心与活力 如果说醉翁亭是滁州的脸面，那么"狗市"就是滁州的胃和心。初三送年结束，虽然寒风料峭，但我还是 一大早驱车直奔紫薇中路的"狗市"。老滁州人都知 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the transformation of Tianjin's petrochemical industry from traditional refining to a modern materials industry, highlighting its significant growth and development [1][10] - Tianjin's oil production reached 40.92 million tons in 2025, making it the highest in the country, accounting for 19% of national output [3][6] - The Bohai Oilfield continues to be a crucial contributor, with its oil and gas equivalent production exceeding 40 million tons in 2025, representing over 60% of the national increase in marine crude oil production [3][6] Group 2 - The petrochemical industry has become the leading industrial sector in Tianjin, with an output value of nearly 450 billion yuan in 2024, constituting over 20% of the city's industrial output [8][10] - The industry has evolved through three stages: initial establishment in the 1970s, growth in the early 2000s, and maturity by 2010, with significant projects like the 1 million-ton ethylene and 10 million-ton refining projects [6][10] - By the end of 2024, Tianjin's refining capacity reached 21 million tons per year, with ethylene production at 3 million tons per year, positioning it among the top producers in the country [6][10] Group 3 - The current period is critical for the high-quality transformation of the petrochemical industry, shifting from fuel-driven growth to material-driven development, with a focus on optimizing structure [10][12] - The South Port Industrial Park is central to this transformation, focusing on high-end chemical products and advanced materials, with strategic projects in various sub-sectors [10][12] - The Dagu Petrochemical Industrial Park aims to attract high-performance chemical projects, indicating a targeted approach to enhance the industry's capabilities [10][12]

Core Insights - The article highlights the distinct development paths of Nantong and Chengdu during the 2026 Spring Festival, reflecting new demands in housing and the vitality of commercial consumption in China [1][11]. Group 1: Nantong's Housing and Consumption - Nantong's real estate market focuses on "policy precision and service convenience," launching a "New Spring Home Purchase" initiative with 74 projects participating in community benefit activities [2][13]. - The city aims to meet diverse needs such as returning home buyers, talent housing, and senior living through various housing options, from small units to larger apartments [2][13]. - The commercial area of Tangzha Ancient Town saw significant visitor engagement, with over 66,000 tourists during the first two days of the new year, a 50% increase from the previous year [3][14]. - The bustling atmosphere led to a 189% increase in sales for local merchants and market stalls, showcasing strong consumer activity and traditional festive spirit [3][14]. Group 2: Chengdu's Urban Quality and Commercial Real Estate - Chengdu emphasizes "livable quality" in its housing market, with the Luhua community as a model, featuring 8,300 acres of land and a 2,100-acre artificial lake [7][18]. - The city’s commercial real estate sector is thriving, leveraging "scene innovation" and "first-store economy" to attract consumers, becoming a top destination for national consumption [9][20]. - Chengdu's Spring Festival activities included over 90 brands launching limited-time offers, enhancing customer engagement through upgraded flagship stores and unique experiential events [9][20]. - The integration of cultural and commercial elements, such as the large-scale lantern displays and tech-driven experiences, reflects the city's dynamic approach to urban development and consumer engagement [9][20]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Both cities represent contrasting yet complementary aspects of China's economic recovery, with Nantong focusing on stability and foundational growth, while Chengdu showcases vibrant consumer culture and innovation [11][22]. - The developments in Nantong and Chengdu illustrate a broader narrative of China's economic stabilization and the strengthening of internal demand, highlighting the importance of housing and consumption in urban growth [11][22].