Global Capital Market Overview - The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has created volatility in the markets, with concerns about his hawkish stance affecting monetary policy expectations [1][2][9] - Economic resilience and persistent inflation have led to a challenging monetary policy environment, with the market pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 [1][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.26%, and the dollar index is currently at 97.1, indicating a marginal increase in yields and tightening liquidity expectations [1][9] Equity Market Performance - In the equity markets, South Korea and Argentina saw significant gains, while the A-share indices, including the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, also experienced increases [1][9] - Conversely, the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 saw declines, with Vietnam and Japan's markets experiencing larger drops [1][9] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices fell by 2.01% this week, while geopolitical risks led to a 7.32% increase in oil prices [1][9] - The current market for precious metals is in a phase of volatility reduction, with indicators suggesting that gold and silver prices may stabilize after recent declines [3][11] Global Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a trend of foreign capital inflows and domestic capital outflows from the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds seeing an inflow of $8.83 billion and passive funds $17.41 billion [4][9] - In total, foreign capital inflows amounted to $26.23 billion, while domestic capital outflows reached $600.12 billion [4][9] Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is below that of the KOSPI 200 and the S&P 500, with a PE ratio percentile of 92.9% over the past decade [5][10] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have improved, indicating better relative value in the Chinese stock market compared to global peers [6][10] Economic Data and Inflation Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data shows a marginal increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, while inflationary pressures remain stable in China [7][10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with oil prices potentially impacting inflation significantly if they rise to $80 per barrel in the second half of 2026 [17][10]

本报记者 田鹏 近日，申万宏源发布多份房地产及物管行业研究报告，明确指出我国房地产行业历经深度调整后，基本面底部正逐步临 近，叠加政策面积极信号持续释放、行业格局优化及估值处于历史低位，房地产及物管板块已具备显著投资吸引力，目前板块 业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期或将逐渐过去，维持"看好"评级，优质房企、商业地产等细分领域将率先受益。 政策端 多维度利好持续积累 结构弹性不断凸显 从行业数据来看，尽管短期仍有压力，但筑底信号已逐步显现。销售端，2025年1月份至12月份全国商品房销售面积同比 下降8.7%、销售额同比下降12.6%，但12月份单月销售面积、销售额同比降幅较前期分别收窄1.7pct、1.5pct，二手房市场表现 更具韧性——2026年1月份重点城市二手房成交同比增长9.3%，较2025年12月份提升36pct，显示存量房市场需求修复节奏快于 新房。 库存方面，截至2026年1月末，15个重点城市住宅可售面积环比基本持平，3个月移动平均去化月数虽有所上升，但部分核 心城市如杭州2026年首宗宅地以19.8%溢价率成交，反映优质地块仍具备吸引力。 投资端虽短期偏弱，但长期修复基础正在夯实。2025年1月 ...

申万宏源研报称，北京时间1月30日，特朗普提名沃什为下届美联储主席，金融市场大幅波动。但是， 就降息预期来说，沃什提名事件、1月美联储FOMC例会对其冲击并不大，市场仍预期2026年美联储降 息2次。 ...

展望2026年，赵伟认为，服务消费、"新"新基建与绿色投资将是影响全年经济走向的三大关键。服务消 费方面，伴随服务业开放政策的不断推进，被抑制的服务类需求有望得到有效释放。"新"新基建方面， 重点在于通过数字化、智能化手段，系统性降低社会物流成本，并通过强化都市圈交通枢纽功能、发展 多式联运，提升经济运行效率。绿色投资方面，围绕"双碳"目标，持续推进产业绿色化改造。 03:45 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂环境中稳步前行？申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟在接受 记者专访时表示，理解今年经济需把握"夯实基础、全面发力"八个字。"夯实基础"指的是对"十四五"以 来所构建的产业体系、市场基础和制度框架的巩固与深化。而"全面发力"意味着在发展与改革相关领 域，政策推进与落实的速度将会加快。 策划：黄蕾 统筹：徐蔚 作者：刘禹希 吴诗婷 ...

Core Insights - The evaluation results for the 2025 annual performance quality of securities companies were released by the Beijing Stock Exchange and the National Equities Exchange and Quotations, assessing 115 firms on their professional capabilities, compliance levels, and business operations [1] Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The majority of securities companies scored above the baseline score of 100, indicating a positive accumulation in industry performance quality [1] - Guotai Junan ranked first with a total score of 145.04, followed by Huatai Securities (143.41), China Merchants Securities (140.49), Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (136.43), and CITIC Securities (135.49), showcasing strong performance in professional quality [1] Group 2: Distribution of Scores - The score distribution shows a "large middle, small ends" pattern, with a few top-tier firms leading the industry while the majority fall into the second and third tiers, indicating overall compliance and notable business highlights [1] - Some firms scored in the fourth tier due to low professional scores or high compliance deductions, suggesting a need for improvement in specific business areas or risk management capabilities [1] Group 3: Business Structure and Specialization - The evaluation system detailed scores for various sub-items within the Beijing Stock Exchange and National Equities Exchange, revealing differences in business structures among firms [2] - Certain firms, like Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities, achieved high scores through deep engagement in Beijing Stock Exchange business, particularly in sponsorship and mergers and acquisitions [2] - Other firms, such as Kaiyuan Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan, excelled in the National Equities Exchange business, especially in recommending listings and ongoing supervision, demonstrating their service capabilities for new three-board enterprises [2] Group 4: Contribution of Brokerage and Research - Brokerage and research services, which connect investors with the market, contributed significantly to the professional quality scores of firms like Galaxy Securities and Guotai Junan [2]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲 明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （ 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 的 股 份 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：6806） 海外監管公告 本公告乃由申萬宏源集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規 則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於深圳證券交易所網站發佈之《申萬宏源集團股份有限公司關於「21申宏02」票面 利率調整和投資者回售實施辦法的第三次提示性公告》，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 申萬宏源集團股份有限公司 董事長 劉健 北京，2026年1月30日 公告编号：临2026-10 债券代码：149394 债券简称：21申宏02 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 关于"21申宏02"票面利率调整和投资者回售实施办法 的第三次提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完 整，没有虚假记录、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要提示： 1. 利率调整：根据《申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2021 年面向专 ...

证券代码：000166 证券简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临2026-10 债券代码：149394 债券简称：21申宏02 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 关于"21申宏02"票面利率调整和投资者回售实施办法 的第三次提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完 整，没有虚假记录、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要提示： 1. 利率调整：根据《申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2021 年面向专 业投资者公开发行公司债券（第一期）募集说明书》（以下简称 "《募集说明书》"）的约定，公司作为"21 申宏 02"（债券代码： 149394）的发行人，有权决定在存续期的第 5 年末调整本期债券存 续期后 2 年的票面利率。根据当前的市场行情，公司决定在本期债 券第 5 个计息年度末下调本期债券的票面利率 265 个基点，即"21 申宏 02"债券存续期后 2 年的票面利率为 1.30%。 2. 投资者回售选择权：根据《募集说明书》中设定的投资者回 售选择权，投资者有权选择在投资者回售登记期内进行登记，将持 有的本期债券按面值全部或部分回售给发行人，或选择继续持有本 期债券。 3. 投资者选择将持有的本期债券全部或部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to strong growth in education business and recovery in the Oriental Selection segment, with revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 increased to $5.5 billion, $6.11 billion, and $6.89 billion respectively [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 FY26, the company reported revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated $974 million, up 13% year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Oriental Selection) earned $217 million, growing 22.9% [2] - The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was $73 million, reflecting a 68.6% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points [2] Study Abroad Business - The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting in Q2 FY26 was $252 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 1%, a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. However, it remained stable compared to Q1 FY26 [3] - The company is integrating study abroad training and consulting services and expanding its target audience by increasing youth training offerings to enhance growth resilience in this segment [3] New Business Growth - New business revenue (K9 competency training and learning machine) grew by 21.6% year-on-year to $366 million, with sustained high growth in non-subject competency businesses. The continuation rate for K9 competency training and learning machines is improving, indicating enhanced product reputation [4] - The number of teaching centers increased to 1,379, a year-on-year growth of 21%, although the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to Q1 FY26. The company aims to improve operational efficiency by maximizing existing teaching center capacity [4] Operating Profit Margin Improvement - Despite the slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in competency business margins offsets this decline. The Non-GAAP operating profit margin in Q2 FY26 expanded by 4.7 percentage points to 7.5% year-on-year, showing an accelerating expansion trend [5] - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin for the education business was 6.6%, up by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the margin for other businesses (mainly Oriental Selection) was 13%, increasing by 12.4 percentage points [5]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to strong growth in education business and recovery in the Dongfang Zhenxuan segment, with revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 adjusted to $5.5 billion, $6.11 billion, and $6.89 billion respectively [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 FY26, New Oriental reported revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with education business (including cultural tourism) generating $974 million, up 13% [1] - Other businesses, primarily Dongfang Zhenxuan, contributed $217 million, reflecting a 22.9% year-on-year growth [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company reached $73 million, a 68.6% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points [1] Study Abroad Business - The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting in Q2 FY26 was $252 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 1%, but a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The company is integrating study abroad training and consulting services and expanding its target audience to enhance growth resilience in this segment [2] New Business Growth - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine sales, saw a revenue increase of 21.6% to $366 million [3] - The number of teaching centers grew to 1,379, a 21% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to Q1 FY26 [3] Operating Profit Margin Improvement - Despite the slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in profitability from competency training offset this decline [4] - Q2 FY26 Non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 4.7 percentage points to 7.5%, with education business margin at 6.6%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Other businesses, mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan, achieved a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 13%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the securities sector is experiencing a downturn, with specific ETFs reflecting this trend, yet there is a notable inflow of funds into the securities ETF, suggesting underlying investor interest [1][2] - The securities ETF (159841) has seen a net inflow of 516 million yuan over the last ten trading days, despite a 1.1% drop in its underlying index during the trading session [1] - The latest fund size of the securities ETF (159841) is reported to be 10.614 billion yuan, with its top five constituent stocks being Dongfang Wealth, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is currently slowing down, but the securities company ETF is recommended for industry allocation due to its relative attractiveness in counter-cyclical investment strategies [2] - The securities industry fundamentals remain solid, with a forecasted 47% increase in net profits for the brokerage sector by 2025, supported by recent regulatory policies encouraging mergers and acquisitions [1]