智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股普遍高开，截至发稿，中国银河(06881)涨4.62%，报11.09港元；东方证 券(03958)涨4.46%，报7.5港元；光大证券(06178)涨4.41%，报9.71港元；申万宏源(06806)涨4.08%，报 3.32港元。 消息面上，11月19日晚，中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券同步发布重大资产重组停牌公告。公告披露， 本次重组的核心模式为换股吸收合并，中金公司将作为合并方，通过发行A股股票的方式承接东兴证券 与信达证券的全部A股股份。中金公司表示，合并后将提升资本实力，实现客户资源整合，在证券行业 竞争格局中进一步巩固头部优势，迎来"规模效应+业务协同"的多重业绩增长动力，推动营收结构持续 优化、盈利能力稳步提升，进一步提升国家战略服务能力。 华泰证券点评称，本次汇金系券商并购整合，与此前的上海国资旗下国泰君安和海通证券换股合并，共 同表明证券行业进入以头部券商整合驱动竞争格局重塑的新时代。该行认为，本次重组有望加速一流投 行建设，重塑行业格局，行业内部竞争或将进一步向头部集中。合并后公司资本实力增强、杠杆使用空 间拓宽，盈利能力有望提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that under a neutral assumption, the risks associated with AI soft constraints by 2026 are manageable, with a focus on whether the penetration rate of B-end enterprises can improve and whether cash flow remains stable. Companies in the US stock market with relatively stable expansion are worth monitoring. However, hard constraints, particularly regarding power supply for computing infrastructure, will become more pronounced, necessitating higher verification requirements for ROI [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and AI Investment - Since 2023, the current AI market in the US has been ongoing for three years, primarily focusing on valuation increases and widespread performance in AI infrastructure and applications [2]. - The AI-related industries (technology, communication) are expected to contribute limited valuation in 2025, with increased reliance on debt financing amid unclear ROI for AI investments [2]. - Concerns about an "AI bubble" stem from the gap between the time required for new technologies to generate economic scale effects and the optimistic expectations of capital market returns [3]. Group 2: Constraints and Adjustments - Hard constraints often lead to periodic adjustments in the AI sector, with the "Buy the Dip" strategy still showing effectiveness in the US stock market. Adjustments have been triggered by macro liquidity tightening and concerns over computing power, algorithms, and electricity [4]. - The report outlines that the AI sector has faced multiple adjustments since 2023, with each decline exceeding 10% and lasting over a month, influenced by factors such as liquidity tightening and supply shocks [4]. Group 3: ROI and Financial Metrics - The report emphasizes that the ROI for AI investments is sensitive to GPU depreciation, with rising debt financing costs posing tail risks. The total AI investment commitment projected by Trump for 2025 is approximately $3.8 trillion, aimed to be completed by 2028 [6][7]. - Current AI penetration in US enterprises is around 10%, with higher rates in information-intensive sectors, expected to rise to over 30% in the next six months [6]. - The report highlights that the profitability of AI applications varies, with B-end applications showing higher margins compared to C-end applications, which generally have negative margins [6]. Group 4: Debt and Liquidity Risks - The overall debt pressure on AI infrastructure is manageable, but significant differentiation among companies is expected by the second half of 2025. Long-term debt levels related to AI hardware have been gradually increasing, with a decline in the free cash flow to debt ratio [7][8]. - The report warns that in a tightening liquidity environment, the probability of debt risks increases, particularly for companies with lower asset quality [8]. - The current static PE ratio for the US stock market is 28x, with historical data indicating a low success rate for holding stocks at this valuation over three years [10].

策略会会场外设置服装特卖会，申万宏源（000166）这波操作火了。 据媒体报道，11月18日，2026申万宏源资本市场策略会在上海金茂君悦酒店2楼举行。策略会入门处设置了嘉麟杰品牌特卖会，销售户外羊毛服饰、抓绒衣 等产品，号称大牌同款面料，但价格十分便宜。 图片来源 网传视频截图 多名参会人士反映，前来询问、选购的人士络绎不绝，部分衣服的售价在200元以内，确实比商场实惠不少。此外，网传视频显示，申万宏源策略会场外还 设有销售食用油、小米、粉条等食品的摊位。 图片来源 网传视频截图 对此，部分网友评论称，"参加策略会还能买东西，这个模式挺不错的。不过进会场的时候还以为走错地方了"。还有部分网友猜测称，"都有广告植入了， 券商也缺钱了？"。 公开资料显示，申万宏源于2015年登陆深交所，旗下有申万宏源证券、宏源汇智、宏源汇富、宏源期货、申万宏源产业投资、申万宏源投资等子公司。 值得一提的是，近年来，申万宏源因薪酬发放问题曾多次引发争议。 例如，2022年5月，一封申万宏源证券员工《恳请公司领导加快推进2021年度年终奖发放》的邮件截图在社交媒体流传；2023年6月，一名财经媒体人爆料 称，受原单位投行同事和朋友 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]

顾伟拥有超20年的保险资管、公募基金、券商资管从业经验。对于券商资管的发展，顾伟提出明确路 径：应充分发挥在固收、FOF、衍生品等领域的优势，以强大的中央资产配置投研体系为基础，构建多 策略平台，通过组合管理有效提升产品和策略的风险后收益，即实现单位风险收益最大化或单位收益风 险最小化；同时通过深入有效的资产负债管理提升客户体验，最终实现券商资管的跨越式发展。 转自：证券时报 人民财讯11月19日电，11月19日，第十九届深圳国际金融博览会开幕，"2025中国金融机构年会暨中国 证券业资产管理高峰论坛"同步举行。申万宏源资管首席投资官顾伟表示，资管行业未来的目标是提供 更好用户体验的产品，共同开拓百万亿居民储蓄的增量市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is entering a new cycle of stable profitability, with long-term capital inflows ongoing, and a positive outlook for banks is emphasized [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The banking sector has transitioned from a "broken net" state to a deep valuation pressure, currently at approximately 0.7 times price-to-book (PB) ratio, with previous lows at 0.49 times PB [1]. - The current environment of low interest rates is driving capital towards dividend-paying sectors, with the banking index's dividend yield at about 4.3%, significantly higher than the ten-year government bond yield [2]. - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasingly allocated to banks, with potential inflows estimated at around 600 billion yuan if 40% of new funds are allocated to banks [2]. Group 2: Expected Changes in Banking Fundamentals - The central bank aims to support banks in stabilizing net interest margins, which may lead to a slight year-on-year increase in interest margins in 2026 [3]. - The importance of high provisions is highlighted, as banks face narrowing space for balancing risk digestion and profit replenishment, focusing on banks with low non-performing loans and high provision ratios [3]. - Some smaller banks may face revenue growth challenges due to high base pressures in their capital market businesses, impacting their non-interest income [3]. - Capital adequacy will become a focal point, with banks that have strong internal capital and financial stability being better positioned for stable lending and dividends [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - If the macro environment in 2026 sees a gradual recovery in Producer Price Index (PPI) and marginal increases in long-term interest rates, it will create favorable operating conditions for banks [4]. - Even under economic pressure, banks are expected to maintain clear risk thresholds and stable dividend expectations, making them attractive dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [4].

Group 1: Oil and Gas Exploration - The supply of oil is expected to slow down, with Brent crude oil prices projected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel by 2026 [2] - OPEC+ is expected to slow down its production increase, while non-OPEC production is anticipated to decline significantly, with shale oil production expected to peak [2] - Global GDP growth is projected at approximately 3.1% in 2026, leading to a slowdown in oil demand growth [2] Group 2: Refining Industry - The refining sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to global supply contraction and domestic policies promoting efficiency [3] - New refining capacity additions are nearing completion, but there will still be projects focused on increasing chemical production [3] - The overall refining sector is expected to have reached a bottom in terms of profitability, with potential for upward elasticity in the future [3] Group 3: Polyester Industry - The polyester industry is anticipated to experience a significant recovery in profitability due to limited new investments and coordinated production cuts by leading companies [4] - The capital expenditure growth rate for PTA is expected to slow down, with no new capacity expected to be released in 2026 [4] - The demand for polyester products is expected to improve gradually, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The tightening supply-demand dynamics in the polyester sector suggest an improvement in profitability, with recommendations for quality companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5] - The refining sector is expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages for leading companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5] - The offshore oil service sector is projected to maintain high profitability, with recommendations for companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant structural changes in both company and investor composition, suggesting a potential systemic uplift in valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) likely to decline in the medium to long term [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 29.15% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 32.23% in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bullish market [2]. - The current market performance is primarily driven by valuation expansion, yet the overall valuation remains relatively low compared to global peers [2]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - There has been a continuous upward revision in earnings expectations for many companies, reflecting a positive outlook for corporate profitability [2]. - In a neutral scenario, the potential return for the Hang Seng Index next year is estimated at approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching up to 33.83% [2]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The industry and investor structures in the Hong Kong market have undergone profound changes, with the technology sector's market capitalization and trading volume surpassing that of traditional sectors over the past decade [4]. - The current ERP in the Hong Kong market is around 5%, a low level not seen since early 2018, indicating potential for valuation uplift [3]. Group 4: Offshore Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market's offshore characteristics lead to a higher volatility in ERP compared to other major global markets, with historical lower bounds around 4% [4][5]. - The proportion of trading through the Stock Connect program is approximately 25%-30%, which is on an upward trend, indicating a shift towards reducing the offshore discount and aligning valuations with global markets [5].

AI方面 零部件方面 零部件是中国"高端制造"的典型代表，具备"规模效应-成本优势-技术优势"。因而，在科技带动下机器 人、低空经济等新应用成为此类企业必攻之地;其次，优秀的企业正在通过全球化路径来实现二次成 长。 （1）"机器人""低空经济"成为确定性的产业新方向。特斯拉、智元、宇树等公司为主展开的产业链成 为行业焦点。行业真正兑现时点临近，2026年有望成为科技成长"预期到落地"的黄金时间点;汽车零部 件企业横向拓展能力强,液冷、低空行业与汽车行业底层技术高度共通。核心支撑是领先的高端制造能 力，有望实现客户资源共享、成本协同优化与核心技术复用。 （2）出海成为确定性逻辑，优秀汽零公司全球化仍为长期成长路径，2026年重点关注欧洲出海。海外 竞争对手退出，留下供给缺口,欧洲碳排放法规要求临近、新能源政策落地，推动整车厂转型;众多公司 国内市占率提升进入相对瓶颈期，正加快出海节奏，欧洲订单获取加速。 智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，汽车行业正迎来以中高端换购和整车出海为驱动的增长新阶 段，对明年政策退坡无需过度担忧，行业核心变革围绕电动化与AI智能化展开，AICar将成为融合四大 智能体的超级终端。 ...

11月19日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办， 申万宏源研究海外经济首席分析师陈达 飞，发表刚性"泡沫"——申万宏源2026年海外经济宏观展望，他认为，长期而言，AI革命的演化或仍处 于上半场，泡沫之后可能才是AI产业资本的"黄金时代"。 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经 济周期"弱现实"的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息 潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱；权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预 期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫"破裂的风险或趋于上行。 专题：申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年，AI资本开支成为美国经济的"新支柱"，但代表性企业的现金流压力和债务融资需求的约束也开 始显性化，美国AI高资本开支模式的可持续性值得关注。短期而言，宏微观条件或暂不构成AI"泡沫"的 逆风，但需要为金融资本的"狂热"和资产价格的"泡沫"建立完备的"监测清单"。展望未来 ...